Who Wins the ACC?

[GE Nole]

FSU, Pitt, and Clemson have a heck of a lot more experience, though. And outside of Jalen Johnson, none of the Duke freshmen are especially elite.

Hard to pinpoint a single issue. We don't excel in anything. The defense frustrates me the most. If Goldwire or another guard isn't getting pressure 30-40 feet away from the basket, the other team is almost always getting a high-percentage shot. There are 75 schools in the P6 conferences, and only 5 of those schools have a worse team fg% defense. And only 3 schools have a worse team 3-pt% defense. Crazy high-percentage shots when teams move the ball around against Duke. Defensive rotations are not sound. Interior defense & defensive rebounding isn't great. K went zone last night, and I expect we'll see much more of that going forward.

Another thing to consider, is we don't have a traditional big we can drop the ball to for a quick post-up. Hurt can do this to a certain extent, but more often than not he's taking jumpers. So, we're very perimeter-oriented. Which isn't highly helpful when Hurt is the only great shooter on the team (I think Baker/Brakefield could be, if they were given more minutes/shots). Roach, Steward, Goldwire, and Moore have played the most minutes, aside from Hurt, and they combine to shoot under 29% from three. Our offense is still decent, but not a traditional high-powered Duke offense. We've had a top 15 offense every year in the KenPom era, with the lone exception being 2007. This year, our offense is ranked 30th. I think there's still potential for this team to be decent, but I'm inclined to say the more likelier scenario is we're a bubble team. I will say, I think Jalen Johnson's performance last night was encouraging. The most talented player in the ACC, IMO. He gave us a chance last night, and he has the ability to lift us to another level. The offense needs to run through him going forward.

Great stuff. Appreciate the thoughtful reply. Makes sense when you lay it out like that. And I agree about Johnson, dude is a baller. Easy top 5 pick.

But this begs another question: K can pretty much recruit who he wants. He understands that guys like Johnson will be one and done and it’s part of his strategy to construct rosters that mix size, skill, talent, experience, etc.

So how is it that y’all have no real big to toss it in to? How are y’all so limited from a shooting perspective? How are you so bereft of perimeter defenders?

Have their been recruiting targets y’all missed on? Guys not panning out? Lack of development for non-starters?

 

[dukedevilz]

Great stuff. Appreciate the thoughtful reply. Makes sense when you lay it out like that. And I agree about Johnson, dude is a baller. Easy top 5 pick.

But this begs another question: K can pretty much recruit who he wants. He understands that guys like Johnson will be one and done and it’s part of his strategy to construct rosters that mix size, skill, talent, experience, etc.

So how is it that y’all have no real big to toss it in to? How are y’all so limited from a shooting perspective? How are you so bereft of perimeter defenders?

Have their been recruiting targets y’all missed on? Guys not panning out? Lack of development for non-starters?

Lack of development? Perhaps. People knock on Baker for not being a great defender. I don't think his defense is any worse than any of the other guys on the wing. He's such a great shooter, I think he's just lacking confidence right now. And I imagine it's hard to have confidence when you might get 1-2 shots a game, and no plays are run for you. I would like to see him integrated into offensive sets. Same goes for Brakefield. I see a lot of potential for Brakefield. I don't know what to make of Mark Williams. Definitely an athlete. Would be a great rim protector. He seems semi-lost on the court. So, I can understand why he's not getting regular minutes.

Steward has a reputation as a shooter. I think he'll regain his form at some point. Roach performed well in the summer of 2018, and was pursued heavily then. He had an ACL injury at the start of the 2018-19 season. Perhaps he lost a bit post-injury? The talk I was hearing in the summer was Roach would be here for at least two years. So, we didn't heavily pursue another point guard in the class of 2021, knowing that Roach likely wasn't going anywhere. Seems atypical for a program that is constantly losing 3-4 OADs.

We were supposed to have Boogie Ellis, but he decommitted at the last minute. He hasn't been shooting lights-out at Memphis, but I want to say he was around 46% from three in the EYBL games (similar percentages for his HS career). Until the final month of his recruitment, I thought we were going to get Josiah Jordan-James. Also, thought we had a good shot at landing Cole Swider and David McCormack. We recruited Hunter Dickinson, too. But, I think we were too late in the game on him. And Mark Williams committing was the final nail in the coffin for having a shot at him. As far as defense, I'm guessing K doesn't overly focus on that in recruiting (i.e. Jabari Parker). K looks for offensively skilled players. Most freshmen are lacking in defensive effort and intensity, simply because they're used to overpowering inferior opponents. Defense can be taught/improved to a certain degree, but dominant offensive players are hard to come by. It's a down year, for sure. But, with a lot of guys coming back, and several top 10 recruits coming in, I think we'll quickly bounce back next year.

 

[supergreennole]

From the game portions I saw last night, Duke should end up being a team that can win a good amount of their remaining games, but their margin is as thin as its been in a while. What I saw is a team that doesn't have an alpha dog on it. They have a best player for sure, but there isn't swagger, or confidence at this point, which the results bear out. Weird year for sure, it makes sense when you think about all of the variables. Duke will end up getting everyone's best shot because of the name on the front of the jersey even if the names on the back don't currently instill a lot of fear.

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

Clemson...just A bad team.

 

[Villian07]

Clemson is an enigma for sure. Plays good enough D to beat anyone but are so inept on O they can lose to anyone.

 

[supergreennole]

I’ll be disappointed if we don’t put them away similarly to GT, but I still think they might be working their way out of the malaise of the break they had to endure. Really just want a win but our point guard doesn’t do the best with aggressive press defense.

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

Clemson is an enigma for sure. Plays good enough D to beat anyone but are so inept on O they can lose to anyone.

The last few games tho they’re giving up 84 points/game. Clem benefitted early from some close close W’s against some not so good teams. Undermanned Miami, who had them beat and let win it at the end. A poor NCST team. Guard the 3 against Clem and don’t let their guards blow past you with any consistency. Inside Clem is not good.

 

[Villian07]

Yea but besides the last two games, UVA and GT where they got dubbed, they were 9-1 with wins over FSU, purdue, and @ alabama

Much more impressive than our resume this far imo.

The last two losses do seem concerning esp giving up 85 pts to uva and then 83 to gt when u hang ur hat on your defense. Hopefully we play them soon lol

I think sims is the key for them. He is a load on the inside but doesn’t have much help down there. Unf we don’t have anyone to matchup with him.

 

[dukedevilz]

It's puzzling how terrible Clemson has been the past two games. Their offense obviously isn't anything special. I think it would be beneficial to give PJ Hall more minutes. Play him alongside Aamir Simms, instead of Baehre. Might sacrifice a little defense, but they need more offensive firepower.

They have some really good OOC wins against Alabama and Purdue. Also took down Miss State and Maryland. I think they're safe for making the tournament for now, but they obviously can't continue on this cold streak.

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

They came out of the gate fast and it’s like they’ve shot their load. Now the real Clem is playing. The one that gave up 31 3’s in 2 games. They aren’t a lock for the tourney if this trend continues. They need a W bad and they’re going to have to try and get @FSU.

 

[dukedevilz]

They came out of the gate fast and it’s like they’ve shot their load. Now the real Clem is playing. The one that gave up 31 3’s in 2 games. They aren’t a lock for the tourney if this trend continues. They need a W bad and they’re going to have to try and get @FSU.

How do you know that the past two games is the real Clemson? Everyone has bad games. People were writing Virginia off when they lost to San Francisco, and subsequently got wrecked by Gonzaga. Same thing for Florida State when they lost to UCF. I'll grant you that two bad losses in a row is not a good look, but your opponents making 31 threes in 2 games is also not normal.

It feels like it might be a two-team race between UVA and FSU, but we tend to shift our views from week to week. Clemson has three wins against top 25 teams, and while they still need to obviously win games, I would also argue that no one in the ACC would trade resumes with them at this point.

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

Based on several games against poorer teams they could easily have lost and now the blowouts. They got out fast. Did they have a bunch of returning starters? If they did that would explain a lot.

Losing is contagious just like winning. They better stop the shit show soon before they can’t.

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

Clem is 3-3 in the ACC. So for all the heroics early, they are .500 in a conference most would agree is down. They are an arse hair or 2 from being 1-5 in the ACC.

 

[GE Nole]

The last few games tho they’re giving up 84 points/game. Clem benefitted early from some close close W’s against some not so good teams. Undermanned Miami, who had them beat and let win it at the end. A poor NCST team. Guard the 3 against Clem and don’t let their guards blow past you with any consistency. Inside Clem is not good.

At this point, I’m giving Clemson the benefit of the doubt. They ran into two teams shooting the nets off the rim. Some of that is luck, especially from the perimeter. There’s a growing body of work about 3 point shooting being largely luck once the ball is released. The key is to force teams into situations where their best shooters aren’t able to get looks from three in the first place.

Also, stopping dribble drive penetration ain’t exactly a strength of this year’s FSU team.

Unfortunately for Clemson, the Seminoles tend to shoot pretty darn well in Tuck.

 

[GE Nole]

How do you know that the past two games is the real Clemson? Everyone has bad games. People were writing Virginia off when they lost to San Francisco, and subsequently got wrecked by Gonzaga. Same thing for Florida State when they lost to UCF. I'll grant you that two bad losses in a row is not a good look, but your opponents making 31 threes in 2 games is also not normal.

It feels like it might be a two-team race between UVA and FSU, but we tend to shift our views from week to week. Clemson has three wins against top 25 teams, and while they still need to obviously win games, I would also argue that no one in the ACC would trade resumes with them at this point.

Well said. Two games is exactly that. Two games.

Teams go through funks in a normal season, that’s just going to be heightened in a year with as much week to week practice and playing variability as this one.

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

Well said. Two games is exactly that. Two games.

Teams go through funks in a normal season, that’s just going to be heightened in a year with as much week to week practice and playing variability as this one.

4 games. Down by 4 against undermanned Miami with 1 minute to go. Pulled it off. Down by 3 to a poor NCST team with less than 1 minute to go, won in OT. Clobbered by UVA, ditto GT. Very definite down trend and it’s a team that is looking like a duck and walking like a duck.

 

[supergreennole]

I saw a stat that is pretty crazy. In Clemson's win against us, they shot 33 free throws. In the 4 games since, they have shot 42 TOTAL. Right now, we have the second worst free throw differential in league play. That game basically accounts for all of it

 

[supergreennole]

4 games. Down by 4 against undermanned Miami with 1 minute to go. Pulled it off. Down by 3 to a poor NCST team with less than 1 minute to go, won in OT. Clobbered by UVA, ditto GT. Very definite down trend and it’s a team that is looking like a duck and walking like a duck.

Their margin for error is pretty small. Without playing their game to a T, they are going to have trouble in games that you wouldn't expect them to. But they can really lock it down, so I'm not making Saturday a gimme. Would like to get out to a healthy lead like we have the last 3 games and see if that effects them mentally

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

Just read that myself green. 33 FT’s to 9 is pretty ridiculous.

 

[dukedevilz]

Free throws really can be a difference maker.

I used to think mediocre free throw-shooters would really shoot their team in the foot with all of the misses from the charity stripe. But, if they're consistently getting to the line, it's almost always helpful. Someone shooting 60% from the line, is getting 1.2 points per possession, which is equivalent to making 40% of your three pointers. Who wouldn't take someone making 40% of their threes? A good free-throw shooting team is going to be around 75%, which is 1.5 ppp. A high volume of free throws, coupled with decent-good ft percentages, can be really hard to overcome.

 

[supergreennole]

I’d love to see statistics about officiating crews and individual officials about how many fouls they call, offensive fouls, other violations, etc

 

[GE Nole]

Free throws really can be a difference maker.

I used to think mediocre free throw-shooters would really shoot their team in the foot with all of the misses from the charity stripe. But, if they're consistently getting to the line, it's almost always helpful. Someone shooting 60% from the line, is getting 1.2 points per possession, which is equivalent to making 40% of your three pointers. Who wouldn't take someone making 40% of their threes? A good free-throw shooting team is going to be around 75%, which is 1.5 ppp. A high volume of free throws, coupled with decent-good ft percentages, can be really hard to overcome.

Yep. FT Rate is way way more important than FT%.

80% FT shooter takes 10 FTs, he makes 8. 60% FT shooter takes 20, he makes 12.

And on top of that, you are actively putting the other team in foul trouble and potentially fouling out key players.

 

[GE Nole]

I’d love to see statistics about officiating crews and individual officials about how many fouls they call, offensive fouls, other violations, etc

As an FSU fan, I can tell you we want to avoid Lee Cassell. Notorious for a ticky tack whistle against bigger players.

 

[GE Nole]

4 games. Down by 4 against undermanned Miami with 1 minute to go. Pulled it off. Down by 3 to a poor NCST team with less than 1 minute to go, won in OT. Clobbered by UVA, ditto GT. Very definite down trend and it’s a team that is looking like a duck and walking like a duck.

Fair enough. But still hard to just totally dismiss wins over Bama, Purdue, Maryland, and FSU.

And I think NCSU is better than you’re suggesting.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Free throws really can be a difference maker.

I used to think mediocre free throw-shooters would really shoot their team in the foot with all of the misses from the charity stripe. But, if they're consistently getting to the line, it's almost always helpful. Someone shooting 60% from the line, is getting 1.2 points per possession, which is equivalent to making 40% of your three pointers. Who wouldn't take someone making 40% of their threes? A good free-throw shooting team is going to be around 75%, which is 1.5 ppp. A high volume of free throws, coupled with decent-good ft percentages, can be really hard to overcome.

I wonder how much the underhanded free throw would help if it got over it's stigma.

 

[dukedevilz]

I wonder how much the underhanded free throw would help if it got over it's stigma.

It would be interesting to see if there are material variances between the two techniques. Outside of Canyon Barry, who obviously had a great teacher, I don't know anyone else that has tried that in recent memory. I think if you can get the form more or less right, you'll probably be at least north of 70%. Just seems like most players would be too embarrassed to even try during an actual game.

 

[Villian07]

I wonder how much the underhanded free throw would help if it got over it's stigma.

Onuaku used to do that for Louisville. He was a terrible ft shooter, even for a big man. It wasn’t just the big hands, he had something wrong with his forearm iirc. The staff convinced him to try granny style and he went from like a 40-50% shooter to a 60-70%.

Dude was a load down low, could score on the blocks, and was a great passer. Just could not shoot, no face up game at all. I wish he would have stayed another year in school bc he really only ever showed flashes of domination, never really from tip to buzzer; but alas he had probably reached his “nba potential” as he was a big body with zero shot. He got drafted iirc, but not very highly. Not sure if he’s still bouncing around the G league or what these days. SC sometimes would show him shooting his granny FTs during his stint with the rockets.

I can’t pronounce or spell his first Cham “Chinu” is wrong as it can be. Younger brother of former Syracuse player Arinze Onuaku.

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

Fair enough. But still hard to just totally dismiss wins over Bama, Purdue, Maryland, and FSU.

And I think NCSU is better than you’re suggesting.

I get it. I’m going with the trend. Trend looks to be getting worse. This year is really weird due to covid. Teams that have a lot of returning players had a disproportionate advantage in early games since practice sessions were few and many eliminated altogether. That’s why I wondered aloud if Clem had a high # of returnees? Would explain their rocket start while teams with multiple starters to replace try and jell.

Baylor and the zags are extreme examples. They would be good regardless, but with so many returnees their advantage became huge. We’ll see who, if anybody can close the gap.

 

[Villian07]

I’m not real sure on Clemson’s roster. I don’t know who they lost. I know they didn’t bring in any stud 5 star frosh type.

I know they still have Amir Sims down low and he’s a grown ass man down there. Can’t name another player.

They seem to always be streaky, I remember they whipped our ass last year I believe when they were on one of their hot runs. Then as soon as people start to wonder if they are legit they shit the bed, kinda just like this year.

 

[GE Nole]

I’m not real sure on Clemson’s roster. I don’t know who they lost. I know they didn’t bring in any stud 5 star frosh type.

I know they still have Amir Sims down low and he’s a grown ass man down there. Can’t name another player.

They seem to always be streaky, I remember they whipped our ass last year I believe when they were on one of their hot runs. Then as soon as people start to wonder if they are legit they shit the bed, kinda just like this year.

Nick Honor is one of their better players (by far the best perimeter shooter) and he’s a grad transfer.

 

[supergreennole]

UNC looking better by shortening their rotation and getting Harris back. Would love to see them come into our rematch having established a good resume to give us a chance for a very quality win on the road

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

Lmao at Clem. Their toast again😂

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

Our fvcking Walkons are just throwing shit at the basket. They suck

 

[FaithPlusOne]

FSU looks good.

Clemson isn’t even keeping it close recently. How many annihilations is that in a row?

I’m not impressed with Louisville outside of Jones, granted I haven’t watched too many of their games.

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

GT is giving UVA hell.

 

[UL_1986]

Hurt for Duke is underrated. Rebounding isn’t there offensively, but he’s got a great shot.

 

[GE Nole]

Hurt for Duke is underrated. Rebounding isn’t there offensively, but he’s got a great shot.

I like Hurt too.

But damn it seems like each year Duke gets more and more soft. Not sure what is going on up in Durham, but it won’t your uncle’s Blue Devils, or even your older brother’s.

 

[GhostOf301]

I like Hurt too.

But damn it seems like each year Duke gets more and more soft. Not sure what is going on up in Durham, but it won’t your uncle’s Blue Devils, or even your older brother’s.

This Duke team needs a coach. And coach K quit coaching a few years ago. The old coach K would have this team overachieving. The pieces are there for a sweet 16 type season, but we have a coach who sold out and doesn't put the same emphasis on the fundamentals that he used to. We are in an entitled era of basketball players where they believe their recruiting ranks dictate their place on the team and their playing time. And K, someone who used to value team players has become an enabler for these entitled players.

 

[GE Nole]

This Duke team needs a coach. And coach K quit coaching a few years ago. The old coach K would have this team overachieving. The pieces are there for a sweet 16 type season, but we have a coach who sold out and doesn't put the same emphasis on the fundamentals that he used to. We are in an entitled era of basketball players where they believe their recruiting ranks dictate their place on the team and their playing time. And K, someone who used to value team players has become an enabler for these entitled players.

Ouch. Truth hurts.

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

This Duke team needs a coach. And coach K quit coaching a few years ago. The old coach K would have this team overachieving. The pieces are there for a sweet 16 type season, but we have a coach who sold out and doesn't put the same emphasis on the fundamentals that he used to. We are in an entitled era of basketball players where they believe their recruiting ranks dictate their place on the team and their playing time. And K, someone who used to value team players has become an enabler for these entitled players.

All coaches grow old. Lose their edge. Saw it happen to Bobby Bowden. Not everyone is John Wooden and goes out on top.