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What team do you trust?

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ThePhog08

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We can all pick apart the top 25 right now

Houston isn't tested
Kansas isn't big
UCLA isn't a great shooting team and singleton is hurt
Purdue has freshman guards
Arizona doesn't defend
Bama starts 3 freshmen and seems to have a ton of drama going on
Baylor really doesn't guard
Gonzaga has weak guards
Kstate , Tennessee, Virginia and Uconn really doesn't have an NBA player on their roster
Texas is dealing with an iterm coach.

All top 16 teams could very well be upset before the S16.

Who do you trust the most as you head into your brackets?
 
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ThePhog08 said:
We can all pick apart the top 25 right now

Houston isn't tested
Kansas isn't big
UCLA isn't a great shooting team and singleton is hurt
Purdue has freshman guards
Arizona doesn't defend
Bama starts 3 freshmen and seems to have a ton of drama going on
Baylor really doesn't guard
Gonzaga has weak guards
Kstate , Tennessee, Virginia and Uconn really doesn't have an NBA player on their roster
Texas is dealing with an iterm coach.

All top 16 teams could very well be upset before the S16.

Who do you trust the most as you head into your brackets?
Click to expand...
Iowa.
 
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ThePhog08 said:
We can all pick apart the top 25 right now

Houston isn't tested
Kansas isn't big
UCLA isn't a great shooting team and singleton is hurt
Purdue has freshman guards
Arizona doesn't defend
Bama starts 3 freshmen and seems to have a ton of drama going on
Baylor really doesn't guard
Gonzaga has weak guards
Kstate , Tennessee, Virginia and Uconn really doesn't have an NBA player on their roster
Texas is dealing with an iterm coach.

All top 16 teams could very well be upset before the S16.

Who do you trust the most as you head into your brackets?
Click to expand...
This time of year it’s usually guard play that wins out. For that reason I’d pick Houston and baylor. Now if Kansas gets the Midwest regional I could see them in the final four simply because of logistics. They won’t have to board a plane until Houston.
 
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Kansas. The only remaining active head coach with multiple titles and a roster full of guys that already have a ring and know how to get it done.

I said back in january before they really started playing well they had as good a chance as anyone and i’m standing by that.

Edit: I forgot about Rick Pitino. He’s good but he’s not making a final four at Iona.
 
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I believe Kansas, Houston, Bama. and UCLA are the best 4 teams. But the committee creates bad match-ups for teams and any one of these teams could lose on the 2nd week of tournament play. Tennessee, Xavier, and St. Marys will create match-up problems for higher seeded teams due to their style. UConn can get hot and they are talented.
 
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ThePhog08 said:
UCLA isn't a great shooting team and singleton is hurt
Click to expand...

Jaylen Clark, who is one of the best defenders in the country and IMO the 2nd most important player for UCLA. Haven't heard anything about his MRI yet, but hopeful he'll play in the tournament.

Houston has been my favorite since the preseason. They still are, but if UCLA has a healthy Jaylen Clark, I believe they're right there with Houston.
 
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JayhawkWriter said:
This time of year it’s usually guard play that wins out. For that reason I’d pick Houston and baylor. Now if Kansas gets the Midwest regional I could see them in the final four simply because of logistics. They won’t have to board a plane until Houston.
Click to expand...
Baylor looks a lot like Purdue last year. Elite offense and poor defense. That's not a recipe for a championship.
 
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dukedevilz said:
Jaylen Clark, who is one of the best defenders in the country and IMO the 2nd most important player for UCLA. Haven't heard anything about his MRI yet, but hopeful he'll play in the tournament.

Houston has been my favorite since the preseason. They still are, but if UCLA has a healthy Jaylen Clark, I believe they're right there with Houston.
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I just don't know what to think about Houston. They've only played 6 Q1 games and 4 of them occurred before Christmas.
 
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Gonna have to go with coaching. My top 3 in 3 categories:

1 seeds: Kansas, UCLA & Houston

2-4 seeds: Gonzaga, Tennessee & Xavier.

Potential Cinderella's: Creighton, Texas A&M, Oral Roberts
 
boilerzz said:
I just don't know what to think about Houston. They've only played 6 Q1 games and 4 of them occurred before Christmas.
Click to expand...

I like them a lot. Menacing on defense, one of the best rebounding teams, and this might be their best offensive team in the Sampson era. Shead was struggling from the floor earlier in the season, but his fg% in the last 5 weeks or so has been around 49%. Him not being a liability anymore makes them infinitely harder to guard...

They've won 7 games in this calendar year against top 100 opponents. SOS mirrors pretty closely to their past 2 seasons where they went to the Elite 8 and Final Four. I think they'll be alright.
 
And Houston is 5-1 in Quad 1 games (83.3%). The next best Quad 1 record among teams in the top 10 is Purdue at 9-4 (69.2%). Houston would only need to go 4-3 to match Purdue's Quad 1 record.
 
dukedevilz said:
Jaylen Clark, who is one of the best defenders in the country and IMO the 2nd most important player for UCLA. Haven't heard anything about his MRI yet, but hopeful he'll play in the tournament.

Houston has been my favorite since the preseason. They still are, but if UCLA has a healthy Jaylen Clark, I believe they're right there with Houston.
Click to expand...
I get a little concerned when I watch Houston play on the offensive end. They're a little too my turn your turn ISO happy with Shed and Sasser. Don't love the longevity of that gameplan come tourney time.
 
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WeAreDePaul said:
I get a little concerned when I watch Houston play on the offensive end. They're a little too my turn your turn ISO happy with Shed and Sasser. Don't love the longevity of that gameplan come tourney time.
Click to expand...

That's fair. And they can be a little sloppy on offense at times. I think the contenders that move the ball the best are probably Purdue, Kansas, Arizona, and Texas... UCLA can be a little too iso-dominant, as well.
 
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dukedevilz said:
I like them a lot. Menacing on defense, one of the best rebounding teams, and this might be their best offensive team in the Sampson era. Shead was struggling from the floor earlier in the season, but his fg% in the last 5 weeks or so has been around 49%. Him not being a liability anymore makes them infinitely harder to guard...

They've won 7 games in this calendar year against top 100 opponents. SOS mirrors pretty closely to their past 2 seasons where they went to the Elite 8 and Final Four. I think they'll be alright.
Click to expand...
After the first round, most likely every opponent they play will be considerably better than "top 100". They've played only 2 games against top 50 KenPom teams this calendar year; Memphis twice (and once without Kendrick Davis at home, which was an 8 point win). That's it.

Their rebound rate has gotten fat against the likes of East Carolina, Tulane and Tulsa. In their 6 games against top 50 KenPom teams, they've had a higher OR % than their opponents only once. And that was against a Virginia team that is allergic to the offensive glass.

I think they are good and Sampson is a good coach. But given they are prone to bouts of going cold from the field (5 games with an eFG% below 43%), I'm just not sure I see them winning 6 straight.

PS - I don't trust Purdue either for the same reason.
 
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JVDBeak'em said:
Gonna have to go with coaching. My top 3 in 3 categories:

1 seeds: Kansas, UCLA & Houston

2-4 seeds: Gonzaga, Tennessee & Xavier.

Potential Cinderella's: Creighton, Texas A&M, Oral Roberts
Click to expand...

So do you think UVA isn't a top 4 seed or do you think Tony Bennett isn't a top 3 coach in the 2-4 seed range?
 
WeAreDePaul said:
UVA is a 6 or 7 seed in my world. They'll get a higher seed, but will be sent home faster than you can say University of Maryland Baltimore County Retrievers.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with the 6-7 comment. We'll be overseeded because the committee has an agenda to diminish the UVA brand by giving us a better seed than we deserve so that our upset is magnified.
 
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jhmossy said:
I don't disagree with the 6-7 comment. We'll be overseeded because the committee has an agenda to diminish the UVA brand by giving us a better seed than we deserve so that our upset is magnified.
Click to expand...

I think Bennett and Self both suffer from the expectations that they create through great regular season coaching.

This Virginia roster probably wouldn't sniff the top 25, but Bennett's coaching has them in position for a 4 seed or higher. Earning a 4 seed should be applauded, but instead he'll just get crushed if he fails to reach the Sweet 16.
 
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boilerzz said:
After the first round, most likely every opponent they play will be considerably better than "top 100". They've played only 2 games against top 50 KenPom teams this calendar year; Memphis twice (and once without Kendrick Davis at home, which was an 8 point win). That's it.

Their rebound rate has gotten fat against the likes of East Carolina, Tulane and Tulsa. In their 6 games against top 50 KenPom teams, they've had a higher OR % than their opponents only once. And that was against a Virginia team that is allergic to the offensive glass.

I think they are good and Sampson is a good coach. But given they are prone to bouts of going cold from the field (5 games with an eFG% below 43%), I'm just not sure I see them winning 6 straight.

PS - I don't trust Purdue either for the same reason.
Click to expand...

I'm seeing they had a higher OR% twice and they tied Alabama in that stat. Regardless, they won 5 of the 6 games. And they're 5-1 in Quad 1 games, which gives them the highest Quad 1 winning percentage in the country.

The schedule is equivalent to what it'd been the past two years, where they won 7 games in the past 2 tournaments. Similar to Gonzaga, pretty light in January/February. And we haven't seen that really slow down either team recently. Though, I do think Gonzaga's backcourt will likely hold them back from a deep run this year.

Don't get me wrong, they're not head and shoulders above everyone. They could easily lose in the Sweet 16. Just feel like their margin for error is a little higher than most teams. They're the only team in the country that's in the top 10 in turnover and rebounding margin. Lots of potential extra possessions there. Points Per Possession is about 1.15, which puts them 3rd in the country. KenPom defense is rated 6th. It's not a slam dunk pick, I just don't know if I see anyone better at this point.
 
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Keep an eye out for Creighton. Lost 6 straight early in the year in part because Kalkbrenner was hurt. Since he returned:

  • They are 14-5 with those 5 losses being 4 Q1 losses (3 on the road) and a loss at a fully healthy Nova team. Among those losses was a 2OT loss at Providence, a 3 point loss at Xavier and a 2 point loss to Marquette
  • They are #9 in AdjE according to Barttorvik since that streak
  • They won revenge games against Xavier and UConn
Additionally,
  • They've been a top 10 defensive team all year and have a rim protector in Kalkbrenner
  • They shoot the three well
  • They have solid guards with NCAA tournament experience
My guess is they'll end up about a 5 seed and I really hope they aren't in Purdue's bracket if we are the 1 (or a 6 seed in our bracket if we are a 2).
 
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ExitFlagger said:
Weren’t you positive that Purdue was winning it like two weeks ago?
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Definitely not. Purdue was playing well but can you ever trust Purdue in the post season. Ucla on the other hand is the most proven post season program of all time. Just think Kansas only has 7 titles to win to catch them
 
AuHoosier420 said:
Definitely not. Purdue was playing well but can you ever trust Purdue in the post season. Ucla on the other hand is the most proven post season program of all time. Just think Kansas only has 7 titles to win to catch them
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You probably think that's comparing apples to apples, eh?

Let's see....half a season of Joel Embiid vs 3 or 4 seasons of dudes like Kareem. Seems comparable. Not to mention a much smaller tourney field that didn't include all the top teams, plus fewer tourney games.

Wooden in his coaching prime could have K's and Calipari's classes combined and still wouldn't sniff half of what he did in that era.
 
ExitFlagger said:
You probably think that's comparing apples to apples, eh?

Let's see....half a season of Joel Embiid vs 3 or 4 seasons of dudes like Kareem. Seems comparable. Not to mention a much smaller tourney field that didn't include all the top teams, plus fewer tourney games.

Wooden in his coaching prime could have K's and Calipari's classes combined and still wouldn't sniff half of what he did in that era.
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I assure you Woody would never have done...what he did.
 
WeAreDePaul said:
I friggen hate injuries heading into the tournament. Always causes me to screw up my bracket. I'm looking at you Oregon and Chris Boucher!
Click to expand...
If we don't have Cason Wallace we're done. Injuries are the worst and I hate it even for rivals.
 
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