I like KU's roster to start but I think I prefer Duke's roster once March rolls around due the major upside we have.
Duke has 5 major outs:
1) Tyrese Proctor becomes an All-American like he was supposed to as a Soph. There’s flop lag and he achieves that as a Junior.
2) Caleb Foster take the classic Duke 5 star sophomore guard leap and becomes an All-American just like Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard and Tre Jones.
3) Cooper Flagg lives up to his generational recruit billing and is as good as KD, Wall, Melo, Zion, AD and DRose were as freshmen.
4) Darren Harris, Kon or Isaiah Evans outplay their recruiting rankings and are as good as Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham or Jared McCain as freshmen. Is this likely? No but we’ve got 3 talented top 30 frosh 5 stars and we only need 1 of them to significantly exceed expectations.
5) Khaman Maluach ends up as good as end of freshman year Derek Lively, end of freshman year Joel Embiid at KU or soph year Mark Williams.
Its extremely unlikely that none of these things happen or all of these things happen but the likeliest outcome is that 2 of these things happen.
If 3 or 4 of the upside scenarios happen then I think Duke is clearly the team to beat. If only 1 of those scenarios comes to fruition, Duke will be behind KU, Iowa St, Houston, etc.