Underrated teams speculation part 2

[MKordIUBB]

Last year I did the same thing, and not to brag or anything (even though I definitely am) I got a lot right (here is a link) - https://forums.rivals.com/threads/underrated-teams-speculation.761299/

I also got a lot wrong, and most of it was probably luck. I’m excluding any Indiana teams because I’m biased (that would’ve turned out badly last year)

In no particular order, here they are


Nebraska
South Carolina
Iowa
Arkansas
UCF
Florida
Vanderbilt
Saint Mary’s
Saint John’s
USC
Northeastern (a bit of a reach, you don’t have to tell me)
Davidson
Cincinnati
Villanova (I know they’re top 10, but I think they’re top 5)

I’ll be happy if 1/2 these are right.

This is a little shorter than last years. I’ll give Michigan an honorable mention just because they always finish better than their rankings. If there’s any teams that I should look at let me know!!

 

[dukedevilz]

Last year I did the same thing, and not to brag or anything (even though I definitely am) I got a lot right (here is a link) - https://forums.rivals.com/threads/underrated-teams-speculation.761299/

I also got a lot wrong, and most of it was probably luck. I’m excluding any Indiana teams because I’m biased (that would’ve turned out badly last year)

In no particular order, here they are


Nebraska
South Carolina
Iowa
Arkansas
UCF
Florida
Vanderbilt
Saint Mary’s
Saint John’s
USC
Northeastern (a bit of a reach, you don’t have to tell me)
Davidson
Cincinnati
Villanova (I know they’re top 10, but I think they’re top 5)

I’ll be happy if 1/2 these are right.

This is a little shorter than last years. I’ll give Michigan an honerable mention just because they always finish better than their rankings. If there’s any teams that I should look at let me know!!

Just looking at your list from last year, I'm impressed.

Alabama 25 / No Votes
Butler 28 / 31
Notre Dame 14 / No Votes
Oregon 39 / No Votes
Michigan 38 / 2
Ohio State No Votes / 21
Illinois No Votes / No Votes
Rutgers No Votes / No Votes
Clemson No Votes / 15
Wake Forest No Votes / No Votes
Stanford No Votes / No Votes
Rhode Island 31 / 28
Florida State 47 / 18
Syracuse No Votes / 26

The rankings above include the preseason and postseason polls from the Coaches (I'm including other receiving votes as part of the ranks). Michigan, Ohio State, Clemson, FSU, and Syracuse all vastly exceeded expectations.

I'll play along, since I like these guessing games. Here's my list, included with the preseason ranking:

Not Preseason Top 25, But Other Receiving Votes
LSU, #26
Marquette, #30
NC State, #31
Texas, #42
St.John's, #48

Teams With No Votes:
Western Kentucky
Minnesota
Arizona State
Iowa State
Seton Hall
Texas Tech
Saint Louis

 

[MKordIUBB]

Just looking at your list from last year, I'm impressed.

Alabama 25 / No Votes
Butler 28 / 31
Notre Dame 14 / No Votes
Oregon 39 / No Votes
Michigan 38 / 2
Ohio State No Votes / 21
Illinois No Votes / No Votes
Rutgers No Votes / No Votes
Clemson No Votes / 15
Wake Forest No Votes / No Votes
Stanford No Votes / No Votes
Rhode Island 31 / 28
Florida State 47 / 18
Syracuse No Votes / 26

The rankings above include the preseason and postseason polls from the Coaches (I'm including other receiving votes as part of the ranks). Michigan, Ohio State, Clemson, FSU, and Syracuse all vastly exceeded expectations.

I'll play along, since I like these guessing games. Here's my list, included with the preseason ranking:

Not Preseason Top 25, But Other Receiving Votes
LSU, #26
Marquette, #30
NC State, #31
Texas, #42
St.John's, #48

Teams With No Votes:
Western Kentucky
Minnesota
Arizona State
Iowa State
Seton Hall
Texas Tech
Saint Louis

Thanks. I think most of it was definitely luck. I like your list too and think I missed on not putting Minnesota or Texas Tech in mine.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Smart OP is smart

 

[sdsufan10]

Honestly think Nebraska is more overrated than underrated

 

[dukedevilz]

Honestly think Nebraska is more overrated than underrated

At this point, I would have to agree. They have a preseason ranking of 25; not sure they can improve very much on that ranking. I think they'll make the NCAA Tournament, but I don't expect them to have a top 4 seed. I could see them getting a seed in the 7-10 range, which is certainly respectable, albeit not in the realm of vastly outperforming expectations. They'll be solid, but I'd be mildly surprised if they make it to the 2nd weekend.

 

[KisteK]

Not Preseason Top 25, But Other Receiving Votes
LSU, #26
Marquette, #30
NC State, #31
Texas, #42
St.John's, #48

Teams With No Votes:
Western Kentucky
Minnesota
Arizona State
Iowa State
Seton Hall
Texas Tech
Saint Louis

Which Top 25 are you using?
LSU is #23 in AP

Love all your teams mentioned... with the exception of Seton Hall.

Sell me.

As for the ranked teams (AP), I think Michigan State is a tad overrated, I think Kansas is a tad overrated. Purdue, imo, is tricky because they have a good transfer along with a legit POY contender and a couple of redshirt bigs.. so they could very well end up being top 25. Pre-season tho, I like Marquette, Indiana and Arizona State Top 25 over Purdue, VaTech and UCLA.

LSU's mid-Feb schedule will be fun
2/6 @ Mississippi State
2/9 vs Auburn
2/12 @ UK
2/16 @ Georgia
2/20 vs Florida
2/23 vs Tennessee

 

[NorthJerseyGator]

How TF is Florida not ranked in preseason?

Lost 1 starter and the new starter is a 5 star freshman who is the best passer in the '18 class.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

How TF is Florida not ranked in preseason?

Lost 1 starter and the new starter is a 5 star freshman who is the best passer in the '18 class.

Is KeVaughn Allen going to continue to regress as a player or is he going to snap out of it and make some strides this year? I was shocked when he got worse last year instead of better. After his soph year I really expected him to be one of the better players in the country and instead he wasn't even a top 2 guard on his own team.

 

[NorthJerseyGator]

Is KeVaughn Allen going to continue to regress as a player or is he going to snap out of it and make some strides this year? I was shocked when he got worse last year instead of better. After his soph year I really expected him to be one of the better players in the country and instead he wasn't even a top 2 guard on his own team.

He didn't regress. He's not a born leader. He plays off ball and waits for chances. Last year, with Jalen Hudson stepping in and taking it upon himself to be the #1 scoring option, it made Allen fade into obscurity. Allen did take over some games though, like Arky games because he's from there, but for most games he just let others do the talking and walking.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

He didn't regress. He's not a born leader. He plays off ball and waits for chances. Last year, with Jalen Hudson stepping in and taking it upon himself to be the #1 scoring option, it made Allen fade into obscurity. Allen did take over some games though, like Arky games because he's from there, but for most games he just let others do the talking and walking.

Great spin, I like it. He didn't regress, he chose to be worse. He chose to lower his FG% significantly and either go down or remain stagnant at all other stats.

<someone insert hanging out at circle K gif here>

 

[dukedevilz]

Which Top 25 are you using?
LSU is #23 in AP

Love all your teams mentioned... with the exception of Seton Hall.

Sell me.

As for the ranked teams (AP), I think Michigan State is a tad overrated, I think Kansas is a tad overrated. Purdue, imo, is tricky because they have a good transfer along with a legit POY contender and a couple of redshirt bigs.. so they could very well end up being top 25. Pre-season tho, I like Marquette, Indiana and Arizona State Top 25 over Purdue, VaTech and UCLA.

LSU's mid-Feb schedule will be fun
2/6 @ Mississippi State
2/9 vs Auburn
2/12 @ UK
2/16 @ Georgia
2/20 vs Florida
2/23 vs Tennessee

Your analysis seems sensible. Kansas still has some question marks in the backcourt, and the backcourt more often than not is driving force behind championship teams.. Michigan State, Idk. I like them, but I don't love them. I think they'll win the big team this year, but mostly because no one in the Big 10 jumps off the page for me. Purdue could be interesting. I could see them dropping to be an NIT team this year - and conversely, potentially winning the Big 10 and making it to the second weekend.

I was using the Coaches Poll since they're only one which conducts a postseason poll. It's nice to use a comparative analysis when examining preseason and postseason rankings. There were 49 schools which received at least one vote in the Coaches Poll, and Seton Hall was not one of them. I have Seton Hall #43 on my preseason top 50. So, I'm not sold on them myself. But I think they have a very solid trio in Quincy McKnight, Myles Powell, and Taurean Thompson. Those three will determine how far this team goes. I think they're a top 40ish team, which could certainly win a game or two in the tournament... I'm a really big fan of Remy Martin, btw. I think he could have a breakout year, no question.

 

[NorthJerseyGator]

Great spin, I like it. He didn't regress, he chose to be worse. He chose to lower his FG% significantly and either go down or remain stagnant at all other stats.

<someone insert hanging out at circle K gif here>

He's just not a Type A personality. If he was aggressive, we'd be quite better.

 

[KisteK]

Your analysis seems sensible. Kansas still has some question marks in the backcourt, and the backcourt more often than not is driving force behind championship teams.. Michigan State, Idk. I like them, but I don't love them. I think they'll win the big team this year, but mostly because no one in the Big 10 jumps off the page for me. Purdue could be interesting. I could see them dropping to be an NIT team this year - and conversely, potentially winning the Big 10 and making it to the second weekend.

I was using the Coaches Poll since they're only one which conducts a postseason poll. It's nice to use a comparative analysis when examining preseason and postseason rankings. There were 49 schools which received at least one vote in the Coaches Poll, and Seton Hall was not one of them. I have Seton Hall #43 on my preseason top 50. So, I'm not sold on them myself. But I think they have a very solid trio in Quincy McKnight, Myles Powell, and Taurean Thompson. Those three will determine how far this team goes. I think they're a top 40ish team, which could certainly win a game or two in the tournament... I'm a really big fan of Remy Martin, btw. I think he could have a breakout year, no question.

A good trio, no doubt.. I am super unfamiliar with nearly everyone else on their roster.
I think what kills SHU for me is that the BE looks weaker from the past few seasons.
I still think they'll get a handful in, but I'm not really high on many of them after the top few.
Nova, Marquette, St. Johns
..Providence?
.... Xavier?.... Georgetown?

Torvik ('s analysis) loves Seton Hall, I just don't see it.
And it seems every podcast I've heard has a wiiiide range when ranking Xavier, Butler, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown.
I'd love for Creighton to finish top 6, nearly everyone has them bottom 2-3.

Is the BE even a top 4 cbb conference this season?
1-2 ACC/SEC
3-4 B12/B1G
5 BE
6 P12
Admittedly there may be some bias in that, too.

 

[BobbyBoucheer]

Florida should be ranked.

 

[dukedevilz]

A good trio, no doubt.. I am super unfamiliar with nearly everyone else on their roster.
I think what kills SHU for me is that the BE looks weaker from the past few seasons.
I still think they'll get a handful in, but I'm not really high on many of them after the top few.
Nova, Marquette, St. Johns
..Providence?
.... Xavier?.... Georgetown?

Torvik ('s analysis) loves Seton Hall, I just don't see it.
And it seems every podcast I've heard has a wiiiide range when ranking Xavier, Butler, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown.
I'd love for Creighton to finish top 6, nearly everyone has them bottom 2-3.

Is the BE even a top 4 cbb conference this season?
1-2 ACC/SEC
3-4 B12/B1G
5 BE
6 P12
Admittedly there may be some bias in that, too.

I agree - The Big East is down, significantly down, actually. And I can't argue about the wide range of rankings in the league. There is significant turnover from last season. Hard to come to a consensus with some many unknowns. St.John's and Marquette are perhaps the only two teams that bring back multiple quality, experienced players.

The Big East also isn't bring in stellar recruiting classes, either. Villanova (#9) and Providence (#21) are the only Big East schools with top 30 classes, according to 247. This conference is going to have to depend on players filling bigger roles (ie: Booth/Paschall- Nova; Goodin- Xavier) and transfers. The Big East does have an impressive number of eligible transfers that could be high-impact players. I'd say there's a good chance that the Big East has more impact transfers than any other conference.

Joe Cremo, Villanova (Albany)
Joseph Chartouny, Marquette (Fordham)
Ed Morrow, Marquette (Nebraska)
Mikey Dixon, St.John's (Quinnipiac)
Mustapha Heron, St.John's (Auburn)
Ryan Welage, Xavier (San Jose State)
Kyle Castlin, Xavier (Columbia)
Quincy McKnight, Seton Hall (Sacred Heart)
Tauren Thompson, Seton Hall (Syracuse)
Connor Cashaw, Creighton (Rice)
Damien Jefferson, Creighton (New Mexico)
Greg Malinowski, Georgetown (William & Mary)
Jalen Coleman-Lands, DePaul (Illinois)
Lyrik Shreiner, DePaul, DePaul (CS Northridge)

I think your conference rankings are about right. I see the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 in the top 3. Sometimes the Big 12 gets a nice boost because they rarely have any stragglers like the ACC (Pitt/Wake) or SEC (Ole Miss/Georgia). Conferences 4-6 will most likely be the three that you mentioned. I think the Pac-12 is much, much improved, however. I think they could very easily be the #4 conference this year. Washington/Oregon could both be top 4 seeds. USC/UCLA have enough talent to be top 25 teams. Arizona State has a nice mixture of promising young talent + eligilbe transfers. Arizona has a lot of good players, albeit no stars. They remind me of Louisville a bit, in that sense.

 

[dukedevilz]

How TF is Florida not ranked in preseason?

Lost 1 starter and the new starter is a 5 star freshman who is the best passer in the '18 class.

Koulechov and Chiozza were both starters, right? Probably 2 of their top 3 players from last year. Those aren't minor losses, IMO. They have good potential, however. Lots and lots of talent on the team. I'm excited to see Nembhard and Hudson in tandem. I think they're a Final Four Sleeper.

 

[NorthJerseyGator]

I think most people see Florida as losing 2 of their top 3 players, even if Koulechov did come off the bench. So it's a little more than just one starter, IMO. They have good potential, however. Lots and lots of talent on the team. I'm excited to see Nembhard and Hudson in tandem. I think they're a Final Four Sleeper.

We didn't have our post players bench depth last season due to injuries and were unbalanced as a team. Now the post players are all healthy so will be balanced with sharpshooters on the outside, slashers down the lane, and big bodies banging down low.

 

[UF1Delt]

Is KeVaughn Allen going to continue to regress as a player or is he going to snap out of it and make some strides this year? I was shocked when he got worse last year instead of better. After his soph year I really expected him to be one of the better players in the country and instead he wasn't even a top 2 guard on his own team.

It’s his senior year, so I really think he makes big strides this year and improves on what he did his first 2 seasons. You gotta remember these are still 18-22 year olds, and when you actually read about all he was dealing with last year, it makes a lot of sense that he struggled during last season.

https://floridagators.com/news/2018...r-better-louder-version-of-same-kevaughn.aspx

From everything we have heard in our offseason reports he has become a true leader finally and hopefully should take a big step forward from last year. We will see but I would not be surprised if our unranked team surprises this year and makes an elite 8/final 4 type of run. We will be a legitimate 13 deep this year, which is unheard of for Florida...

 

[MKordIUBB]

Putting Florida on the list was easily the biggest no-brainer.

We didn't have our post players bench depth last season due to injuries and were unbalanced as a team. Now the post players are all healthy so will be balanced with sharpshooters on the outside, slashers down the lane, and big bodies banging down low.