UConn, Purdue, Houston - or The Field?

[954gator]

47, 57 and 65 and all three losses were on the road, where ranked teams are losing at at all time high rate this year.

You act like those teams are terrible. Two are tournament teams and the third has zero losses worse than UNCW.

People have to realize that home court advantage is huge. Nobody is getting away unscathed in conference away games. If anyone did I'd highly question how good those conferences are. In fact I'd say the Big10 and Big East are down just for the fact these type of Creighton/ Ohio State upset road games aren't happening more often.

Don't get me wrong I think UCONN and Purdue no question deserve to be solidly in the top 3 along with Houston. I just don't think any team this year is a sure thing in this years tourney. That's not saying much though as the only time I felt that in recent years was that Baylor team.

 

[englandnu]

The November and December games are great for building a tournament résumé. It’s not a great measuring stick for which team is better in February. Most teams have a couple of transfers starting that are playing way different now than they were at the beginning of the season. It takes time for the transfers to settle in and gel with the team.

 

[954gator]

The uncw loss happened in November, UK was missing all 3 bigs and their starting pg on a freshmen oriented team. Most teams are going to lose games when they’re that young and missing 4 players.

Also, UK isn’t being heralded as head and shoulders BETTER than everyone else.

You’re getting butthurt over my opinion and I'm not even saying Purdue sucks, I just gave my reasoning for why I'm taking the field.

Heck, look at Purdue's last two NCAAT appearances with essentially the same team. Y'all lost to a 15 seed and a 16 seed. Yeah, I'm taking the field and if you looked at Purdue with neutral goggles on, you would too.

Any team that is supposed to be as good as Purdue is being talked about, shouldn't lose to a coachless NIT team, regardless of the venue. To me, that’s a huge red flag.

Nobody is that good. You're going to lose conf road games no matter who you are. Who doesn't have red flags though? That all being said, there isn't a team that's blown me away enough for me to not take the field over any 3 teams. It's not so much a knock on Purdue, Houston, or UCONN.

Here's the truth...Rankings wise it's Purdue, UCONN, Houston in whatever order....large gap...next team. That gap is there bc of season's results more so than nobody else has a chance. Plenty of teams are good enough to hand those teams an L in the tourney though imo. Again I'd say that about anyone.

 

[dukedevilz]

These are the odds from TeamRankins and ESPN

TeamRankings
1. Houston- 16%
2. Arizona- 16%
3. Purdue- 14.5%
4. UConn- 7.4%
5. Alabama- 7.3%

ESPN's BPI
1. Houston- 32.7%
2. Purdue- 12.5%
3. Arizona- 10.7%
4. Alabama- 7.4%
5. UConn- 7.0%

Not sure what the methodology is, but both metrics like Arizona more than UConn. Interesting. And ESPN's BPI really, really likes Houston.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

These are the odds from TeamRankins and ESPN

TeamRankings
1. Houston- 16%
2. Arizona- 16%
3. Purdue- 14.5%
4. UConn- 7.4%
5. Alabama- 7.3%

ESPN's BPI
1. Houston- 32.7%
2. Purdue- 12.5%
3. Arizona- 10.7%
4. Alabama- 7.4%
5. UConn- 7.0%

Not sure what the methodology is, but both metrics like Arizona more than UConn. Interesting. And ESPN's BPI really, really likes Houston.

Would you take those five against the field?

 

[kyjeff1]

Nobody is that good. You're going to lose conf road games no matter who you are. Who doesn't have red flags though? That all being said, there isn't a team that's blown me away enough for me to not take the field over any 3 teams. It's not so much a knock on Purdue, Houston, or UCONN.

Here's the truth...Rankings wise it's Purdue, UCONN, Houston in whatever order....large gap...next team. That gap is there bc of season's results more so than nobody else has a chance. Plenty of teams are good enough to hand those teams an L in the tourney though imo. Again I'd say that about anyone.

I don't agree that there is a large gap between those 3 teams and everyone else.
Like I said, I'm buying Houston, they play in the toughest conference top to bottom and have only lost games to high quality teams.

UConn is getting high praise because they won the title last year, returned some players and won some games in November. But they aren't laying waste to a mediocre Big East. They’re beating mid teams 77-64 or so. Still, they're damn good, but by no means are they that much better than all the other contenders.

As far as Purdue, I'm seeing red. flag after red flag. I get it, road games are hard, but you can't lose to a coachless NIT team and still get me to believe they are this great team, especially when you consider what happened to them.the last 2 years in the tournament. What other contenders are losing to NIT teams?

I still think Purdue is one of the favorites, I just don't think they're head-and-shoulders better than everyone else, no way.

 

[ABVolsFan92]

These are the odds from TeamRankins and ESPN

TeamRankings
1. Houston- 16%
2. Arizona- 16%
3. Purdue- 14.5%
4. UConn- 7.4%
5. Alabama- 7.3%

ESPN's BPI
1. Houston- 32.7%
2. Purdue- 12.5%
3. Arizona- 10.7%
4. Alabama- 7.4%
5. UConn- 7.0%

Not sure what the methodology is, but both metrics like Arizona more than UConn. Interesting. And ESPN's BPI really, really likes Houston.

Interesting because Tommy Lloyd craps his pants in the tourney. I won't be shocked if an 8 seed takes them down

 

[dukedevilz]

Would you take those five against the field?

Without a doubt.

As of right now, I still might be willing to take UConn, Purdue, and Houston over the field. I think it's really close to being 50-50. But yeah, throw in Alabama and Arizona? That would put it over 60% odds, IMO.

 

[dukedevilz]

Interesting because Tommy Lloyd craps his pants in the tourney. I won't be shocked if an 8 seed takes them down

Fair. I know a lot of people are skeptical of Purdue because of losing to lower seeds the past few tournaments. But if any of the projected 1 seeds is going to fail to make it to the Sweet 16, I'm looking at Arizona first.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Fair. I know a lot of people are skeptical of Purdue because of losing to lower seeds the past few tournaments. But if any of the projected 1 seeds is going to fail to make it to the Sweet 16, I'm looking at Arizona first.

Who do you think the lowest #1 seed will be?

As a lower seed,, I'd rather have UConn and Houston over Zona or Purdue.

 

[IUfanBorden]

I'm not even convinced there's a solid gap between them and Marquette. Guess we'll find out since they're playing twice soon.

Well...…………………………..

Truth is, nobody knows how these teams are going to perform on neutral courts.

Also, just because a team went on a run last year, doesn't mean they'll do it again, timing is everything. If the tournament was played 2 weeks ago, you would get a different champion than if it was played this week.

I wish we would stop placing so much weight on quad 1 wins. A win on the road over Wisconsin when they’re struggling, is not the same as a road win at say, Iowa State. The quads are way too broad to really just act like all quad 1 victories are the same.

Watching Purdue and UConn these last few weeks, I'm sorry, I just don't see how so many people think they are so much better than everyone else. I get it, UConn beat the snot out of Marquette at home, but do they really have any recent wins that are impressive? Same with Purdue, who have they beaten that can be thought of as some great win?

Seen too many tournaments where several teams come out of nowhere and play out of their minds.

I trust Houston much more than I trust the other two, because they play extremely hard. But, they struggle to score sometimes.

Gimme the field.

I'd take the field. But not because I don't think UCONN, PU or Houston, isn't a bitch above. I think they are. BUT..neither is a juggernaut. All three are very beatable. With that being said, still feel theybare the 3 best teams

 

[kyjeff1]

Well...…………………………..

I'd take the field. But not because I don't think UCONN, PU or Houston, isn't a bitch above. I think they are. BUT..neither is a juggernaut. All three are very beatable. With that being said, still feel theybare the 3 best teams

100%, those are the 3 best teams, but by a mile? No.

Like you said, none of those teams are UK 1996, UNLV 91, Duke 2001, uNC 2009, UK 2012, UK/duke/Wisc 2015, 2019 duke etc… , these three teams have flaws and some red flags and in a one and done tournament, I'm taking the field

 

[dukedevilz]

Who do you think the lowest #1 seed will be?

As a lower seed,, I'd rather have UConn and Houston over Zona or Purdue.

If the field were being revealed today, my S-Curve would be Purdue, UConn, Houston, and Arizona.

 

[IUfanBorden]

100%, those are the 3 best teams, but by a mile? No.

Like you said, none of those teams are UK 1996, UNLV 91, Duke 2001, uNC 2009, UK 2012, UK/duke/Wisc 2015, 2019 duke etc… , these three teams have flaws and some red flags and in a one and done tournament, I'm taking the field

Absolutely. Do I think it's likely the champion comes from one of those three? Probably. But they're not juggernauts. With teams like Tenn, Zona, KU, UNC, etc...all quite capable of beating UCONN, PU or HOU..No way I don't take the field.

 

[bignish]

Reread my post, who have they beaten the last 2 months? Who is their best win since 1/1/24?

Jeff how can Purdue beat top 10 NET teams this year when they don't even get a chance to face them? All we can do is evaluate a team by its results and roster.

You understand that after the past year's March failures all this Purdue team cares about is the NCAAT right? They're already dominating the Big 10, don't you think its natural for them to be sleepwalking a bit vs their inferior Big 10 competition? They proved themselves vs elite competition earlier this season.

Heck, 2023 UConn lost to St. John's (#82) at home, Seton Hall (#58) on the road and Providence (#40) on the road.

Why are you holding Purdue to a higher standard?

 

[kyjeff1]

Jeff how can Purdue beat top 10 NET teams this year when they don't even get a chance to face them? All we can do is evaluate a team by its results and roster.

You understand that after the past year's March failures all this Purdue team cares about is the NCAAT right? They're already dominating the Big 10, don't you think its natural for them to be sleepwalking a bit vs their inferior Big 10 competition? They proved themselves vs elite competition earlier this season.

Heck, 2023 UConn lost to St. John's (#82) at home, Seton Hall (#58) on the road and Providence (#40) on the road.

Why are you holding Purdue to a higher standard?

See, we're on the same.page.

However, where we disagree apparently, is the thought that Purdue and UConn are the best teams by a mile. I get it, there are no top 10 teams on your conference schedule and that’s fine, but you can't lose games to NIT teams and then tell me they are head and shoulders better than everyone else.

I think Uconn and Purdue are title contenders, but they are not ahead of the pack.

 

[954gator]

I don't agree that there is a large gap between those 3 teams and everyone else.
Like I said, I'm buying Houston, they play in the toughest conference top to bottom and have only lost games to high quality teams.

When I said large gap I just meant in the rankings. Basically, the resume's are clear ahead of the rest. The rankings and how good a team actually is aren't the same. I agree with you on not being sold FWIW. I'm not really sold on anyone though so.

 

[kyjeff1]

When I said large gap I just meant in the rankings. Basically, the resume's are clear ahead of the rest. The rankings and how good a team actually is aren't the same. I agree with you on not being sold FWIW. I'm not really sold on anyone though so.

If we were talking about a best of 3/5/7 series, yup, I would take those teams, but with the tournament being one-and-done, nope. I feel like Houston is the only one I truly trust out of that group and it's because they have vets that play extremely hard.

 

[954gator]

didnt carolina lose to ga tech and syracuse?

Acc is incredibly hard to win on the road. Dude we played @ Wake and the game was soo incredibly fixed in the second half. We controlled the entire game then the last 8 minutes it was a shit show. Our guys getting destroyed and their side going to ft line on every loose ball/rebound. I feel like I see that in ACC games most often. It happens everywhere but the ACC has no shame. It's not even the big names all the time either. Clemson gets hard carried at home too imo.

 

[954gator]

People have to realize that home court advantage is huge. Nobody is getting away unscathed in conference away games. If anyone did I'd highly question how good those conferences are. In fact I'd say the Big10 and Big East are down just for the fact these type of Creighton/ Ohio State upset road games aren't happening more often.

Don't get me wrong I think UCONN and Purdue no question deserve to be solidly in the top 3 along with Houston. I just don't think any team this year is a sure thing in this years tourney. That's not saying much though as the only time I felt that in recent years was that Baylor team.

Funny follow up from Florida's road game tonight 🤣


Foul on Florida 🤣. There are dumb people in the world that think its the noise and crowd is what creates the home court advantage in basketball. Of course teams are going to lose a few road games they shouldn't. Games are manipulated by poor one sided officiating.

 

[kyjeff1]

Funny follow up from Florida's road game tonight 🤣

View embedded media

Foul on Florida 🤣. There are dumb people in the world that think its the noise and crowd is what creates the home court advantage in basketball. Of course teams are going to lose a few road games they shouldn't. Games are manipulated by poor one sided officiating.

Man, don't worry too much about it, Florida is for real. Those guards are legit. Nobody is talking about the Gators, but they should be.

A lot of lucky bounces went Bama's way and they needed every one of them.

 

[954gator]

Man, don't worry too much about it, Florida is for real. Those guards are legit. Nobody is talking about the Gators, but they should be.

A lot of lucky bounces went Bama's way and they needed every one of them.

I'll only be mad if we don't dog walk them by double digits in Gainesville. UK is tougher to stop than Bama btw. Force them to expend a bunch of energy trying to hit those 3s and that percentage isn't all that special. Only way they can get open consistently is double screens or sketch moving screens.

 

[JackStorm]

It’s becoming more and more apparent that it’s the field. Every team keeps losing a head scratcher. And especially since Bama and the Cocks are in the field

 

[kyjeff1]

I'll only be mad if we don't dog walk them by double digits in Gainesville. UK is tougher to stop than Bama btw. Force them to expend a bunch of energy trying to hit those 3s and that percentage isn't all that special. Only way they can get open consistently is double screens or sketch moving screens.

Don't know if you watched our game, but we got housed by some bad officiating too. Every LSU moving screen was a foul on Antonio Reeeves and Dillingham. We had 10 fouls halfway through the 2nd half and I'd guess we ended up with 16 or 17. I guess that's one way to stop Reeves.

Cats had a 15 point lead though, Cal kept some bad lineups in there and that lead went away in less than 2 minutes, so that didn't help either.

I can't wait to get to the SECT, we'll find out who's for real.

 

[954gator]

Don't know if you watched our game, but we got housed by some bad officiating too. Every LSU moving screen was a foul on Antonio Reeeves and Dillingham. We had 10 fouls halfway through the 2nd half and I'd guess we ended up with 16 or 17. I guess that's one way to stop Reeves.

Cats had a 15 point lead though, Cal kept some bad lineups in there and that lead went away in less than 2 minutes, so that didn't help either.

I can't wait to get to the SECT, we'll find out who's for real.

Damn. No i didn't I was too annoyed with CBB after our game. I'll try and catch a replay. LSU has a knack for lulling teams to sleep at the end of games. We were up 20 and they made it close. Their shots fall like crazy when there's no pressure.

 

[dukedevilz]

3 weeks later and nothing has changed. UConn, Purdue, and Houston are still the 3 best teams. And I'd still give them a slight advantage over the field.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

3 weeks later and nothing has changed. UConn, Purdue, and Houston are still the 3 best teams. And I'd still give them a slight advantage over the field.

I really like UNC, Duke and UK.

 

[954gator]

3 weeks later and nothing has changed. UConn, Purdue, and Houston are still the 3 best teams. And I'd still give them a slight advantage over the field.

I feel better about Purdue and Houston than I do UCONN. I'd say this is a strong year for this type of scenario, but I think I'd just naturally always take the field in these hypotheticals. It will be interesting to watch it play out.

 

[dukedevilz]

I really like UNC, Duke and UK.

All 3 having been playing really well lately. UK as a 4 seed could be a scary draw for any of those 1 seeds. So there are definitely teams that could challenge them. Throw in those 3 aforementioned schools, plus Arizona, Iowa State, Marquette, Tennessee, and a few others. I can't fault anyone for taking the field.

But, I do like the fact that UConn, Purdue, and Houston are a combined 31-9 in Q1 games. And none of those schools has lost a game outside of a Q1 game, so I think their margin for error is pretty high. I feel good about all 3 at least making the Sweet 16.

I feel better about Purdue and Houston than I do UCONN. I'd say this is a strong year for this type of scenario, but I think I'd just naturally always take the field in these hypotheticals. It will be interesting to watch it play out.

It should be interesting. It feels close to being 50-50 to me. I do give a slight edge to this trio, though. I don't expect all 3 to make the Final Four. But, I'd be very surprised if all 3 missed it.

 

[ExitFlagger]

No team in the Kenpom era has won the title without being Top 40 in both defensive and offensive efficiency. These are the teams currently in that category:

Houston
UConn
Purdue
Arizona
Auburn
Tennessee
North Carolina
Duke
Creighton
Marquette
Kansas

 

[dukedevilz]

Auburn

Auburn has one of the weirdest resumes. Analytics love them, but they're also 1-7 in Quad 1 games. Does anyone trust them to string together multiple wins over top 25 teams?

 

[kyjeff1]

No team in the Kenpom era has won the title without being Top 40 in both defensive and offensive efficiency. These are the teams currently in that category:

Houston
UConn
Purdue
Arizona
Auburn
Tennessee
North Carolina
Duke
Creighton
Marquette
Kansas

Yup and no 16 has ever beaten a 1.


Wait… ..fart noise + thumbs down.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Auburn has one of the weirdest resumes. Analytics love them, but they're also 1-7 in Quad 1 games. Does anyone trust them to string together multiple wins over top 25 teams?

No. I'll probably be picking them to get bounced early.

 

[boilerzz]

Auburn has one of the weirdest resumes. Analytics love them, but they're also 1-7 in Quad 1 games. Does anyone trust them to string together multiple wins over top 25 teams?

Nope. And they've been worse than mediocre away from home. They only have one road win at a team inside the NET 100, and that's over #79 Ole Miss.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Yup and no 16 has ever beaten a 1.


Wait… ..fart noise + thumbs down.

Cool. You should probably drop a bet on a 16 seed winning this year.

 

[kyjeff1]

Cool. You should probably drop a bet on a 16 seed winning this year.

If Purdue is going to be a 1, I will certainly do that.
Can I borrow a 10 spot?

 

[RR30]

Auburn has one of the weirdest resumes. Analytics love them, but they're also 1-7 in Quad 1 games. Does anyone trust them to string together multiple wins over top 25 teams?

Nope. Of the SEC teams that will be going dancing, they would probably be my last pick to make a run (which means they are going to the E8).

 

[IUfanBorden]

Yup and no 16 has ever beaten a 1.


Wait… ..fart noise + thumbs down.

Apples to oranges, tbh....Winning "A" game, opposed to 6, is a tad different.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Apples to oranges, tbh....Winning "A" game, opposed to 6, is a tad different.

Jeff doesn't see his team on the list, so obviously it's a bad list. Cuz, y'know.....16 seeds.

 

[kyjeff1]

Apples to oranges, tbh....Winning "A" game, opposed to 6, is a tad different.

The point is, just because it hasn't happened, doesn't mean it can't. Eventually it will.

I'm not sure what VCU's numbers were when they reached the FF, but I can guarantee tgey weren't top 10 in anything.
Same with Butler, Illinois-Chicago, Miami etc…

It's funny, we see teams get to a FF that backed into the tournament and all the sudden, welook and their metrics are suddenly ranked in the 30's. It’s odd how that happens.

Thing with UK is, they CAN play defense, they just don’t do it for 40 minutes and get this, they don't have to. When you can score like that team can, you don't need to be 2015 UK to win.