UConn, Purdue, Houston - or The Field?

[dukedevilz]

In a normal year, there's roughly a 40-45% chance of one of the top 3 schools winning it all. This year, it feels a little different with UConn and Purdue... And I think Houston might be a good enough 3rd contender to give this trio over the 50% threshold. Will the field win it this year? What do you think? @954gator

 

[ABVolsFan92]

It's either going to be Uconn vs Purdue natty or there will be absolute madness and a 5 seed or someone random will win

 

[boiler1987]

It's either going to be Uconn vs Purdue natty or there will be absolute madness and a 5 seed or someone random will win

Purdue will either win the whole thing or lose to another 16-seed. There’s no other way haha.

 

[AuHoosier420]

Purdue will either win the whole thing or lose to another 16-seed. There’s no other way haha.

Purdue and its fans do deserve a nice tourney run at some point

 

[954gator]

In a normal year, there's roughly a 40-45% chance of one of the top 3 schools winning it all. This year, it feels a little different with UConn and Purdue... And I think Houston might be a good enough 3rd contender to give this trio over the 50% threshold. Will the field win it this year? What do you think? @954gator

It's interesting looking back at recent past champions...you could be right. I think with increasing parity that trend will change though. Here's the big disadvantage for this year's current top 3 teams...the field includes all the Blue Bloods. That and the BBs aren't really down this year either.
If I were just choosing between the current top 3 and the field I'd take the field for sure. Of course I could be dead wrong. How many of Uconn's recent champ runs have they been a 1 seed?

 

[AuHoosier420]

It's interesting looking back at recent past champions...you could be right. I think with increasing parity that trend will change though. Here's the big disadvantage for this year's current top 3 teams...the field includes all the Blue Bloods. That and the BBs aren't really down this year either.
If I were just choosing between the current top 3 and the field I'd take the field for sure. Of course I could be dead wrong. How many of Uconn's recent champ runs have they been a 1 seed?

none. Uconn was a 3 seed in 2011. a 7 seed in 2014 and a 4 seed last year

 

[Big_C_KU]

It’s been since Florida won it in 2007 that a defending champion got past the S16? Most lose in the 2nd round. Last year a 4 seed vs 5 seed was the national title game. The tournament is a crap shoot more than ever because of the parity in college basketball. There just isn’t much difference anymore. I would always take the field over anyone.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

It’s been since Florida won it in 2007 that a defending champion got past the S16? Most lose in the 2nd round. Last year a 4 seed vs 5 seed was the national title game. The tournament is a crap shoot more than ever because of the parity in college basketball. There just isn’t much difference anymore. I would always take the field over anyone.

And that's why it's ludicrous to entertain money-grubbing ideas like the P4 breaking away to do their own NCAA basketball tournament.

Y'all couldn't stop Florida Atlantic and San Diego State from reaching the Final Four. You don't deserve to break away and call your tournament the premiere event.

 

[GhostOf301]

This is the year that a random school wins it all.

 

[coryfly]

IDK. I could talk myself into either of these options at various times. Most years I would take the field without a doubt. Not so sure this year.

 

[IUfanBorden]

Purdue and its fans do deserve a nice tourney run at some point

No they dont

 

[IUfanBorden]

IDK. I could talk myself into either of these options at various times. Most years I would take the field without a doubt. Not so sure this year.

Give me the field..

1. Purdue---Off night from their guards could doom them. Edey is really good----but if they struggle from three, it could be trouble. Or if Edey were to get into foul trouble. Adding JOnes really helps.

2. HOU---Can they score enough?

3. UConn---Playing really well. But they have shown lapses.

I like all three. But there's a ton of teams capable of beating all three.

 

[954gator]

It’s been since Florida won it in 2007 that a defending champion got past the S16? Most lose in the 2nd round. Last year a 4 seed vs 5 seed was the national title game. The tournament is a crap shoot more than ever because of the parity in college basketball. There just isn’t much difference anymore. I would always take the field over anyone.

Fun fact Purdue gave Florida the most trouble out of anyone in their 07 run. Maybe you could argue Oregon too.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

This is the year that a random school wins it all.

Iowa State.............or Drake.

 

[dukedevilz]

It's either going to be Uconn vs Purdue natty or there will be absolute madness and a 5 seed or someone random will win

This seems like a reasonable take. UConn and Purdue are the two most schools to win it all. But, the margin between the 3rd best and 20th best team probably isn't that great.

 

[della]

And that's why it's ludicrous to entertain money-grubbing ideas like the P4 breaking away to do their own NCAA basketball tournament.

Y'all couldn't stop Florida Atlantic and San Diego State from reaching the Final Four. You don't deserve to break away and call your tournament the premiere event.

That is the very reason to break away. If you can't beat them kick their asses out.

 

[dukedevilz]

Alright, gents. I pulled some data for you all to consider. Here are all the national champions since the field expanded to 64 teams. Here's where the teams were ranked in the Final AP Poll, just days before each of the respective tournaments.

1985- Villanova, UR
1986- Louisville, #7
1987- Indiana, #3
1988- Kansas, UR
1989- Michigan, #10
1990- UNLV, #2
1991- Duke, #6
1992- Duke, #1
1993- UNC, #4
1994- Arkansas, #2
1995- UCLA, #1
1996- Kentucky, #2
1997- Arizona, #15
1998- Kentucky, #5
1999- UConn, #3
2000- Michigan State, #2
2001- Duke, #1
2002- Maryland, #4
2003- Syracuse, #13
2004- UConn, #7
2005- UNC, #2
2006- Florida, #11
2007- Florida, #3
2008- Kansas- #4 (#1 in KenPom, pre-tournament)
2009- UNC, #2
2010- Duke, #3
2011- UConn, #9
2012- Kentucky, #1
2013- Louisville, #2
2014- UConn, #18
2015- Duke, #4
2016- Villanova, #6
2017- UNC, #6
2018- Villanova, #2
2019- Virginia, #2
2021- Baylor, #3
2022- Kansas, #3
2023- UConn, #10

Here's the count by rank:
#1- 4
#2- 9
#3- 6
------------
#4- 4
#5-10: 9
#11-25: 4
UR: 2

38 NCAA Tournaments and exactly half of the national champions have been one of the top 3 teams in the Final AP Poll. I feel confident that UConn and Purdue will stay in the top 3. The #3 team is still up for grabs. If Houston is the third best team, I kind of like my odds, mostly because it feels like there's a decent gap between UConn/Purdue and everyone else.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Alright, gents. I pulled some data for you all to consider. Here are all the national champions since the field expanded to 64 teams. Here's where the teams were ranked in the Final AP Poll, just days before each of the respective tournaments.

1985- Villanova, UR
1986- Louisville, #7
1987- Indiana, #3
1988- Kansas, UR
1989- Michigan, #10
1990- UNLV, #2
1991- Duke, #6
1992- Duke, #1
1993- UNC, #4
1994- Arkansas, #2
1995- UCLA, #1
1996- Kentucky, #2
1997- Arizona, #15
1998- Kentucky, #5
1999- UConn, #3
2000- Michigan State, #2
2001- Duke, #1
2002- Maryland, #4
2003- Syracuse, #13
2004- UConn, #7
2005- UNC, #2
2006- Florida, #11
2007- Florida, #3
2008- Kansas- #4 (#1 in KenPom, pre-tournament)
2009- UNC, #2
2010- Duke, #3
2011- UConn, #9
2012- Kentucky, #1
2013- Louisville, #2
2014- UConn, #18
2015- Duke, #4
2016- Villanova, #6
2017- UNC, #6
2018- Villanova, #2
2019- Virginia, #2
2021- Baylor, #3
2022- Kansas, #3
2023- UConn, #10

Here's the count by rank:
#1- 4
#2- 9
#3- 6
------------
#4- 4
#5-10: 9
#11-25: 4
UR: 2

38 NCAA Tournaments and exactly half of the national champions have been one of the top 3 teams in the Final AP Poll. I feel confident that UConn and Purdue will stay in the top 3. The #3 team is still up for grabs. If Houston is the third best team, I kind of like my odds, mostly because it feels like there's a decent gap between UConn/Purdue and everyone else.

I think UConn's really good, but what have they done to prove there's a solid gap? I'm not even convinced there's a solid gap between them and Marquette. Guess we'll find out since they're playing twice soon.

To me, Uconn's beaten one legit top 25ish team in league play so far (Creighton).

 

[dukedevilz]

I think UConn's really good, but what have they done to prove there's a solid gap? I'm not even convinced there's a solid gap between them and Marquette. Guess we'll find out since they're playing twice soon.

To me, Uconn's beaten one legit top 25ish team in league play so far (Creighton).

8-2 in Quad 1 Games is a pretty good indicator. The only other teams with 8 Q1 wins are Purdue and Houston. They have 4 road wins against teams all in the top 60. They barely lost to you guys on the road - and that was w/ Solomon Ball, a very meh player, logging almost 30 minutes (Castle was injured).

Their next 7 games will be tough. I suspect they'll lose at least once. Certainly we'll know more in the next month. But, as of right now, they look pretty solid.

 

[Afamu]

I like Uconn right now, but it can all change with an injury.

 

[ABVolsFan92]

IMO Tennessee has consistently been the 4th best team yes we stubbed our toe on the road against Miss St and A&M both tournament teams but Arizona lost to freaking Stanford, Wash St and Oregon St

 

[mcnicKY91]

Yeah, would probably take those three teams over the field, at the moment.

However, once UK is eliminated, will probably pull for Purdue (assuming they are still alive)...they have never won before, and I like Painter, seems like a classy coach. His postgame presser after losing to FDU is a perfect template on how to take accountability for an upset of that magnitude.

 

[ExitFlagger]

8-2 in Quad 1 Games is a pretty good indicator. The only other teams with 8 Q1 wins are Purdue and Houston. They have 4 road wins against teams all in the top 60. They barely lost to you guys on the road - and that was w/ Solomon Ball, a very meh player, logging almost 30 minutes (Castle was injured).

Their next 7 games will be tough. I suspect they'll lose at least once. Certainly we'll know more in the next month. But, as of right now, they look pretty solid.

Yeah, but we all know that Quad 1 wins aren't created equal. Big difference between a road win over #75 vs a top 5 team.

IMO, they've beaten one legit top 15ish team all year, and even that team's a little shaky. I don't think they've proven enough to be able to confidently say they're going to mow through top-rated teams in the tourney.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Purdue and its fans do deserve a nice tourney run at some point

Their team does.

Their fans (other than three) clearly do not.

 

[Noahtogo24]

It’s been since Florida won it in 2007 that a defending champion got past the S16? Most lose in the 2nd round. Last year a 4 seed vs 5 seed was the national title game. The tournament is a crap shoot more than ever because of the parity in college basketball. There just isn’t much difference anymore. I would always take the field over anyone.

Don’t tell @ExitFlagger that about 2020 😛

 

[GE Nole]

This is a pretty easy question. UConn ain’t going back to back because teams rarely do that.

Purdue ain’t winning it because Painter is their coach.

So you’re basically asking “Houston or the field?” Obviously the field is the best answer.

 

[boilerzz]

Their team does.

Their fans (other than three) clearly do not.

 

[dukedevilz]

Yeah, but we all know that Quad 1 wins aren't created equal. Big difference between a road win over #75 vs a top 5 team.

IMO, they've beaten one legit top 15ish team all year, and even that team's a little shaky. I don't think they've proven enough to be able to confidently say they're going to mow through top-rated teams in the tourney.

They have 4 wins against KenPom teams in the top 25, winning all those games by 10+ points. And while those 4 road wins weren't against top 25 teams, they were all in the top 60. And you know that winning on the road against decent teams isn't easy. KU has lost 3 road games to sub-50 opponents - and had a really close one to IU. Duke has lost 2 road games to sub-100 opponents.

I'm open to modifying my open. And certainly we'll have more data to evaluate in the next month. But currently, I feel confident that UConn is a top 3 team. Something to consider is they returned 3 of their top 5 scorers from last year, brought in a borderline All-American in Cam Spencer, and a future 1st Rounder in Stephon Castle. Lots of great pieces that mesh well together.

 

[dukedevilz]

IMO Tennessee has consistently been the 4th best team yes we stubbed our toe on the road against Miss St and A&M both tournament teams but Arizona lost to freaking Stanford, Wash St and Oregon St

I think this is the most complete team Barnes has had at Tennessee. I like them slightly better than the 2019 team. Definitely capable of a Final Four run. Nice to have an elite-level scorer in Knecht and an elite defense. They'll be a very tough out.

The Washington State loss for Arizona isn't bad at all, actually. Wazzou has some dudes. Projected 9 seed in the tourney. The Stanford loss was a little questionable. And the Oregon State loss was a big-time head-scratcher... Zona and Tennessee are both second-tier title contenders for me. I'd say roughly a 20% shot at the Final Four and maybe a 5% shot at winning the whole thing.

@boilerzz What potential matchups do you think could give Purdue a tough road to the Final Four?

 

[ABVolsFan92]

I think this is the most complete team Barnes has had at Tennessee. I like them slightly better than the 2019 team. Definitely capable of a Final Four run. Nice to have an elite-level scorer in Knecht and an elite defense. They'll be a very tough out.

The Washington State loss for Arizona isn't bad at all, actually. Wazzou has some dudes. Projected 9 seed in the tourney. The Stanford loss was a little questionable. And the Oregon State loss was a big-time head-scratcher... Zona and Tennessee are both second-tier title contenders for me. I'd say roughly a 20% shot at the Final Four and maybe a 5% shot at winning the whole thing.

@boilerzz What potential matchups do you think could give Purdue a tough road to the Final Four?

Yeah I agree with this I'll feel pretty good about going far if we get a 2 seed and stay at home in memphis. Getting to the Sweet 16 is key for us just getting out of those first 2 games we should have confidence for the next 4

 

[della]

I think this is the most complete team Barnes has had at Tennessee. I like them slightly better than the 2019 team. Definitely capable of a Final Four run. Nice to have an elite-level scorer in Knecht and an elite defense. They'll be a very tough out.

The Washington State loss for Arizona isn't bad at all, actually. Wazzou has some dudes. Projected 9 seed in the tourney. The Stanford loss was a little questionable. And the Oregon State loss was a big-time head-scratcher... Zona and Tennessee are both second-tier title contenders for me. I'd say roughly a 20% shot at the Final Four and maybe a 5% shot at winning the whole thing.

@boilerzz What potential matchups do you think could give Purdue a tough road to the Final Four?

The problem is that anyone can lay an egg and be sent home.

 

[brooky03]

Field.

Hard field

 

[dukedevilz]

The problem is that anyone can lay an egg and be sent home.

Yup, that's the exciting/sad nature of these tournaments. Also, FAU is currently projected as a 7 seed. That would be a VERY tough 7 seed to face in the Round of 32. Nobody makes it to Phoenix without beating at least 3 really good teams.

 

[boilerzz]

I think this is the most complete team Barnes has had at Tennessee. I like them slightly better than the 2019 team. Definitely capable of a Final Four run. Nice to have an elite-level scorer in Knecht and an elite defense. They'll be a very tough out.

The Washington State loss for Arizona isn't bad at all, actually. Wazzou has some dudes. Projected 9 seed in the tourney. The Stanford loss was a little questionable. And the Oregon State loss was a big-time head-scratcher... Zona and Tennessee are both second-tier title contenders for me. I'd say roughly a 20% shot at the Final Four and maybe a 5% shot at winning the whole thing.

@boilerzz What potential matchups do you think could give Purdue a tough road to the Final Four?

I think the biggest challenge is from a team that can really spread the floor, especially if their 5 can shoot threes and avoid foul trouble. Also, we are in drop coverage a lot so if a team has multiple guys who are deadly in the midrange game.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

You seem sad. Tough shit, you earned it

 

[Courtsensetwo]

I think this is the most complete team Barnes has had at Tennessee. I like them slightly better than the 2019 team. Definitely capable of a Final Four run. Nice to have an elite-level scorer in Knecht and an elite defense. They'll be a very tough out.

The Washington State loss for Arizona isn't bad at all, actually. Wazzou has some dudes. Projected 9 seed in the tourney. The Stanford loss was a little questionable. And the Oregon State loss was a big-time head-scratcher... Zona and Tennessee are both second-tier title contenders for me. I'd say roughly a 20% shot at the Final Four and maybe a 5% shot at winning the whole thing.

@boilerzz What potential matchups do you think could give Purdue a tough road to the Final Four?

Refs will be the biggest challenge for the wrasl’n pukies

 

[ExitFlagger]

They have 4 wins against KenPom teams in the top 25, winning all those games by 10+ points. And while those 4 road wins weren't against top 25 teams, they were all in the top 60. And you know that winning on the road against decent teams isn't easy. KU has lost 3 road games to sub-50 opponents - and had a really close one to IU. Duke has lost 2 road games to sub-100 opponents.

I'm open to modifying my open. And certainly we'll have more data to evaluate in the next month. But currently, I feel confident that UConn is a top 3 team. Something to consider is they returned 3 of their top 5 scorers from last year, brought in a borderline All-American in Cam Spencer, and a future 1st Rounder in Stephon Castle. Lots of great pieces that mesh well together.

Wasn't comparing to KU. KU's an injured 3ish seed right now with no depth. But now that you mention it, they probably have several wins that are better than UConn's best win. And there's no doubt they've faced a more grueling schedule, which has been especially tough for them due to injuries and lack of depth.

I'm not denying that UConn's a top 3 team. Probably the best right now. I'm questioning whether they've really separated themselves. To me, it seems like there are 10 or so teams that are fairly equal at their best. In most years, I think that number is maybe 3-4.

 

[della]

Yup, that's the exciting/sad nature of these tournaments. Also, FAU is currently projected as a 7 seed. That would be a VERY tough 7 seed to face in the Round of 32. Nobody makes it to Phoenix without beating at least 3 really good teams.

The Vols can beat anyone in my opinion, but they have proven they can get smacked in the face. UT and anyone else will have to put multiple back to back ect games together. No one can truly simulate that, but it is what will win it in the end.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Poll backfire, devilz. 27% and half of them are UConn or Purdue fans or you. 😆

 

[dukedevilz]

I think the biggest challenge is from a team that can really spread the floor, especially if their 5 can shoot threes and avoid foul trouble. Also, we are in drop coverage a lot so if a team has multiple guys who are deadly in the midrange game.

You guys did beat down Samford, who is one of the highest volume 3-point shooting teams in the country, and they shoot close to 41% as a team. Obviously the talent level isn't the same, but Samford is 23-3. They're no joke.

Alabama and Creighton definitely try to run some 5-out offense. Though, Nelson and Kalkbrenner aren't exactly proficient from deep. Of the ranked teams, BYU might have the best example of a true 5-out offense when Khalifa is playing. Great vision, too. He operates a lot in the high post, often looking for cutters. BYU doesn't get to the line a whole lot - one of the worst in the nation. They'd get crushed in the free throw department by Purdue.

Purdue beat Marquette in Maui, but it was close. Very close. Ighodaro doesn't shoot from deep, but his push-shot from 15 feet or so is wildly efficient. And Marquette does have three different high-volume 3-point shooters who who shoot north of 37%... So, Idk. They might be able to give Purdue a fair battle.