The 2020/2021 ACC regular season thread

dukedevilz

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So it seems like we really are pretty close. The only thing that keeps throwing me off is your “12-8 or better” at 10%. That just seems ridiculously unlikely.

Even 11-9 at 15% seems pretty high. Look at those percentages you posted—to go 11-9 they need to go 4-3 in the toss ups, which either means sweeping the road games AND beating one of the toughest 4 at home, or beating two or more of those tough teams at home.
Boom. Nailed it. Georgia Tech goes 11-9 to finish 5th in the ACC.
 

supergreennole

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I though the GT win we had earlier this year was sneaky good. They aren’t a bad team, if they are in from 3 they can actually blow you out with Banks being as disruptive as he is
 

GE Nole

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The top 3 teams in Louisville, Duke, and UNC will still be really good (all in the top 10 nationally, IMO). The depth seems to be lacking. Virginia, FSU, and NC State should safely be in the dance (granted NCSU is never really safely in) . Lots of bubble teams. I would put Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, and Pittsburgh on that list. I have a hard time seeing Clemson, Boston College, Wake, or Virginia Tech making the tournament this year. Wouldn't be surprised if we only see 6 teams, to be honest. But hoping/thinking we get 7 or 8.

Here's how I would rank the ACC teams as of today:

1. Louisville
2. Duke
3. UNC
4. Virginia
5. NC State
6. Florida State
7. Syracuse
8. Georgia Tech
9. Pittsburgh
10. Notre Dame
11. Miami
12. Clemson
13. Virginia Tech
14. Boston College
15. Wake Forest
Not terrible. Obviously we were all wrong on UNC. Roy Williams has not had his best year. But for the most part you seemed to get the general tiers right. FSU was underrated as they always are.

If we could be so lucky
Sorry @brooky03 but at least your avatar looks great. What’s the word on Boeheim? Fans can’t be happy.

Generally speaking, I agree with you. But it seems like even the top 3 teams, while still top 10 nationally, don’t have quite the firepower of the top 3 teams from a year or two ago.

Also, I’m betting ND finishes a good bit better than 10th. They return a lot and Brey can coach. Thinking between 6 and 8 for them.

Flip NCSU and FSU too.
What’s ND gonna end up? 8th? Tied for 7th?

At some point people are gonna stop doubting Hamilton and also stop giving Keats credit for stuff he hasn’t accomplished yet.
 
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brooky03

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Sorry @brooky03 but at least your avatar looks great. What’s the word on Boeheim? Fans can’t be happy.
He’s not on the hot seat or anything like that. Fans are more bummed than angry. The saving grace is that this team is at least fun to watch at times because they can score. They can’t defend at all, but at least they put points on the board.

JB will be at SU until Buddy graduates. Not many fans are looking forward to whatever comes after that. Cuse has the dough to outspend most programs, but that’s no guarantee the next guy will be successful. I’m hoping Wright somehow falls out of favor at Nova (yeah right) and comes to Cuse.
 
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GE Nole

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Patrick Williams might very well end up leading the team in scoring. Forrest is often more of a facilitator than dominant scorer (mainly because he can’t shoot), although he can get to the basket at will when he chooses to play downhill. I imagine he tries to carry the load a bit early on but by the end of OOC schedule it could be Williams.

Regarding starters, you know with Ham that’s often just a token designation. Down in Tallahassee we tend to look at things by total minutes played as opposed to who starts the game.

A month or two ago I sketched out some rough numbers for who our top 11 guys might be in terms of total minutes played (assuming all stay healthy). It looked like this:

1. Trent – 975
2. MJ Walker – 825
3. Devin Vassell – 750
4. Patrick Williams – 700
5. RaiQuan Gray – 625
6. Malik Osborne – 500
7. Rayquan Evans – 440
8. Anthony Polite/Dom/Balsa – 375-ish
9. Jack – 300

Based on what I’ve heard from summer, I might bump Dominik up into the 425 range and adjust Evans and Polite down 20-30 min each. Also, Williams could get closer to 750 than 700.

FYI, we play 31 games so it starts with Forrest at just over 31 mpg and the math follows from there.

Malik Osborne is gonna surprise some folks.
@dukedevilz I saw this post on the minutes and it got me interested. Not counting the BC game that's going on right now, here's the minutes breakdown:

Forrest - 939
Vassell - 843
Pat Williams -- 636
MJ Walker -- 634 (missed a few games with injury)
Anthony Polite -- 599
Malik Osborne -- 586
RaiQuan Gray -- 548
Rayquan Evans -- 316
Dominik Olejniczak -- 296
Balsa Koprivica -- 267
Wyatt Wilkes --244
Nathaneal Jack -- 65
Walk-ons -- 75

I nailed Forrest, but was way way off on Nate Jack, who never could master Ham's defensive principles this year. Those extra 250 got spread out all over, with Polite and Osborne being the biggest beneficiaries.

Also, laughable how much Torvik and most outlets underestimated Devin Vassell. He only leads FSU in points and rebounds lol.
 
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dukedevilz

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@dukedevilz I saw this post on the minutes and it got me interested. Not counting the BC game that's going on right now, here's the minutes breakdown:

Forrest - 939
Vassell - 843
Pat Williams -- 636
MJ Walker -- 634 (missed a few games with injury)
Anthony Polite -- 599
Malik Osborne -- 586
RaiQuan Gray -- 548
Rayquan Evans -- 316
Dominik Olejniczak -- 296
Balsa Koprivica -- 267
Wyatt Wilkes --244
Nathaneal Jack -- 65
Walk-ons -- 75

I nailed Forrest, but was way way off on Nate Jack, who never could master Ham's defensive principles this year. Those extra 250 got spread out all over, with Polite and Osborne being the biggest beneficiaries.

Also, laughable how much Torvik and most outlets underestimated Devin Vassell. He only leads FSU in points and rebounds lol.
Vassell is a stud. Easy pick for 1st Team All-Conference. Part of me thought he deserved more minutes last year in the limited time I saw him. He was very, very efficient. But, I think he was mostly just used as catch and shoot type guy. Can't imagine he'll be back next year, but FSU could very easily be in the top 10 in the preseason polls.
 

dukedevilz

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You did nail it! Great job. Too bad they performed so poorly OOC that they didn’t have a chance at NCAAT even with 11-9.
Eh. They have a terrible bench. Alvarado missed a good chunk of the OOC season. And Jordan Usher wasn't eligible til mid December. I don't think GT would have lost to Arkansas or Ball State with Alvarado. But, as you've mentioned before, good coaches need to develop their bench. So that's on Pastner. Georgia Tech could be a formidable team next year, only losing James Banks.

Not terrible. Obviously we were all wrong on UNC. Roy Williams has not had his best year. But for the most part you seemed to get the general tiers right. FSU was underrated as they always are.



Sorry @brooky03 but at least your avatar looks great. What’s the word on Boeheim? Fans can’t be happy.



What’s ND gonna end up? 8th? Tied for 7th?

At some point people are gonna stop doubting Hamilton and also stop giving Keats credit for stuff he hasn’t accomplished yet.
Yep. FSU proved most people wrong again. I will say that I did have them preseason #15 in 2019. So that was about right. I just had you guys a little lower this preseason (somewhere in between 32-34). Hard to know exactly how they'd play, seeing how you lost 6 of the top 8 scorers from 2019.

Btw, out of curiosity, do have a rough idea of how many hours the coaches work in a typical week during the season? Can't imagine those guys sleep much.
 

jhmossy

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Congrats to all the FSU fans on here for winning the ACC regular season outright this year. Kinda crazy that it's their first with how good they've been recently.
 

GE Nole

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Eh. They have a terrible bench. Alvarado missed a good chunk of the OOC season. And Jordan Usher wasn't eligible til mid December. I don't think GT would have lost to Arkansas or Ball State with Alvarado. But, as you've mentioned before, good coaches need to develop their bench. So that's on Pastner. Georgia Tech could be a formidable team next year, only losing James Banks.



Yep. FSU proved most people wrong again. I will say that I did have them preseason #15 in 2019. So that was about right. I just had you guys a little lower this preseason (somewhere in between 32-34). Hard to know exactly how they'd play, seeing how you lost 6 of the top 8 scorers from 2019.

Btw, out of curiosity, do have a rough idea of how many hours the coaches work in a typical week during the season? Can't imagine those guys sleep much.
Good point about Alvarado. And yeah they could be a top 40 team next year.

75+ hours a week.
 
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GE Nole

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Vassell is a stud. Easy pick for 1st Team All-Conference. Part of me thought he deserved more minutes last year in the limited time I saw him. He was very, very efficient. But, I think he was mostly just used as catch and shoot type guy. Can't imagine he'll be back next year, but FSU could very easily be in the top 10 in the preseason polls.
Word around the team is:
Vassell probably 40% chance of staying. NCAAT and how far we go could be deciding factor.

Patrick Williams probably 20% chance of staying.

MJ Walker around 90% chance of staying.

If either Vassell or Williams stays with MJ, we will be a monster next year. Even with both leaving I would expect a top 20 team.
 
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