Rank these teams

[GE Nole]

The problem is you don’t have the team that will cut down the nets on your list\

So:

1
2 Duke
3 UVA
4 Kentucky

The rest have no chance

I'm guessing you're talking about Michigan? I don't have anything against them--they are obviously very good. Their offense just isn't ranked high enough to qualify for this list.

It's funny, though, that you say Gonzaga has "no chance" when they were in the title game just two years ago. Or that FSU "has no chance" when they were a few points from the Final Four just last year.

 

[Noahtogo24]

These are the 8 teams that, as of Thursday afternoon, had a top 25 O and D on KenPom.

Good point- but with Turge, I see the Terps winning one game at most...

 

[della]

Rank these teams in order of most likely to least likely to reach the Final Four (and yes, I know the actual draw makes a HUGE difference):
Gonzaga
UNC
UVA
Maryland
Kentucky
Michigan State
FSU
Duke

Zion gonna play or not? It matters.

 

[GE Nole]

Zion gonna play or not? It matters.

Who knows? I guess I’d lean toward no.

 

[della]

Gonzaga
UVA
Michigan State
UNC
Duke
Maryland
FSU
Kentucky

 

[bMORE607]

Gonzaga
UVA
Michigan State
UNC
Duke
Maryland
FSU
Kentucky

I love you

Spoiler

but your wrong Maryland is last of the teams on this list, but its ok, baby steps.

 

[CB3UK]

Duke
Kentucky
North Carolina
Gonzaga
Michigan State
Virginia
Maryland
Florida State

 

[della]

I love you

Spoiler

but your wrong Maryland is last of the teams on this list, but its ok, baby steps.

 

[Big_Blue79]

I'm guessing you're talking about Michigan? I don't have anything against them--they are obviously very good. Their offense just isn't ranked high enough to qualify for this list.

It's funny, though, that you say Gonzaga has "no chance" when they were in the title game just two years ago. Or that FSU "has no chance" when they were a few points from the Final Four just last year.

1) Top 25 rank is in both off/def is a pretty arbitrary cut-off, not to mention that using rank and not rating is inherently (if often harmlessly) flawed.
2) Whatever FSU did last year or Gonzaga did two years ago is all but irrelevant to their chances this year.
3) Michigan is better than about half the teams on your list.
4) Quibbles aside and assuming good health:

• Duke
• (big gap)
• UK/UVA/Gonzaga
• Michigan State/UNC
• (moderate gap)
• FSU/Maryland

 

[GE Nole]

1) Top 25 rank is in both off/def is a pretty arbitrary cut-off, not to mention that using rank and not rating is inherently (if often harmlessly) flawed.
2) Whatever FSU did last year or Gonzaga did two years ago is all but irrelevant to their chances this year.
3) Michigan is better than about half the teams on your list.

We have used top 25 in college sports for decades and now you’re saying that top 25 is arbitrary?

 

[Big_Blue79]

We have used top 25 in college sports for decades and now you’re saying that top 25 is arbitrary?

People have used a top 25 list to subjectively rank teams for fun and because fans love to look at ranked lists. But that has nothing to do with whether there is a basis to believe that being in the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency (modified by SOS?) carries special connotation for picking/ranking Final Four contenders. Hence, your prerequisites (which, as noted, leave off a superior team in Michigan, not to mention others) is arbitrary. Or, to put it another way, "fans love to look at ranked lists."

 

[bMORE607]

People have used a top 25 list to subjectively rank teams for fun and because fans love to look at ranked lists. But that has nothing to do with whether there is a basis to believe that being in the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency (modified by SOS?) carries special connotation for picking/ranking Final Four contenders. Hence, your prerequisites (which, as noted, leave off a superior team in Michigan, not to mention others) is arbitrary. Or, to put it another way, "fans love to look at ranked lists."

The champion for like the past decade+ has been top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. OP didnt just randomly pick a stat, thats where he got these teams. UCONN’s runs I believe are outliers.

 

[GE Nole]

People have used a top 25 list to subjectively rank teams for fun and because fans love to look at ranked lists. But that has nothing to do with whether there is a basis to believe that being in the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency (modified by SOS?) carries special connotation for picking/ranking Final Four contenders. Hence, your prerequisites (which, as noted, leave off a superior team in Michigan, not to mention others) is arbitrary. Or, to put it another way, "fans love to look at ranked lists."

Ahh, you’ve assumed that because I didn’t include Michigan, or any other team (Tennessee), that I don’t think they are a final four contender. That was never stated.

All I did was look at every team that was in the top 25 in O and D (basically, the most balanced teams, as many champions are very balanced) and ask people to rank them in order of most to least likely to make the Final Four. I never said Maryland is more likely to make the Final Four than Michigan. I never even implied it.

 

[GE Nole]

1) Top 25 rank is in both off/def is a pretty arbitrary cut-off, not to mention that using rank and not rating is inherently (if often harmlessly) flawed.
2) Whatever FSU did last year or Gonzaga did two years ago is all but irrelevant to their chances this year.
3) Michigan is better than about half the teams on your list.
4) Quibbles aside and assuming good health:

• Duke
• (big gap)
• UK/UVA/Gonzaga
• Michigan State/UNC
• (moderate gap)
• FSU/Maryland

Also, why would any rational person say what happened last year is “irrelevant”? Are you seriously suggesting that having guys on the roster who are experienced and familiar with making deep runs in March is no different than having zero experience?

I’m not saying it’s the end all be all. But irrelevant? Come on now. Don’t be foolish.

 

[mebeblue2]

I can’t wait to see your brackets. I’ll be shocked if any of you pick UVA past the Sweet 16.

under Bennett how many elite 8's does UVA have?

 

[mebeblue2]

Duke
UK
UT
Zags

 

[GE Nole]

under Bennett how many elite 8's does UVA have?

One.

Duke
UK
UT
Zags

Tennessee (I think that’s who you mean by UT) wasn’t one of the teams to choose from.

 

[kyjeff1]

One.



Tennessee (I think that’s who you mean by UT) wasn’t one of the teams to choose from.

Yup, their Defensive efficiency rating is 40, which is 13 better than it was last week, but yeah, surprisingly they're way out of this discussion.

 

[Big_Blue79]

The champion for like the past decade+ has been top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. OP didnt just randomly pick a stat, thats where he got these teams. UCONN’s runs I believe are outliers.

It's actually top 20 for champions (not Final Four), 2014 UConn aside, and usually top 15. https://www.vuhoops.com/villanova-b...what-does-kenpom-tell-us-about-past-champions

Pedantic, sure, but top 25 is a bit arbitrary (note that OP stated he used top 25 because rankings like AP) and was clearly done to include Florida State (perhaps ironically, FSU no longer qualifies). And that's fine as an exercise in fun.

 

[Big_Blue79]

I can’t wait to see your brackets. I’ll be shocked if any of you pick UVA past the Sweet 16.

Depends on the bracket, but I'd be surprised if they didn't make the Elite Eight. DeAndre Hunter was a big deal last year and will be this year.

 

[KDcats11]

Duke

Kentucky
Gonzaga

UNC
UVA

Maryland
FSU
Michigan St

Correct.