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Per Kenpom

sgrooms

Well-Known Member
Jan 27, 2010
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Per Kenpom, the difference between the Top 2 teams, is the same as the difference between 2 and 11. I'm not sure I've ever seen that.

Also, Kansas and Virginia are the luckiest teams in the Top 20, and Purdue is the unluckiest.

Rk Team AdjEM
1 Duke 30.58
2 Kansas 26.42
3 Virginia 26.24
4 Michigan 26.21
5 Nevada 25.64
6 Gonzaga 25.31
7 North Carolina 24.57
8 Michigan St. 24.28
9 Auburn 23.67
10 Tennessee 23.08
11 Virginia Tech 22.25
12 Texas Tech 21.73
13 Wisconsin 21.44
14 Florida St. 20.13
15 Purdue 20.11
16 Villanova 19.65
17 Kentucky 19.53
18 Syracuse 19.28
19 Iowa St. 19.2
20 Ohio St. 18.95
 
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Imagine if Duke could actually shoot the 3-ball? Defense looks really, really solid. Transition scoring is off the charts. Just gotta be a little more consistent from the perimeter.
 
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Is this the best defense Duke has shown since 2010?

I know K has been focusing a lot more on the defense than the offense, but their half court offense needs some help. Can't seem to pull away from teams unless they're committing live ball turnovers.
 
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Imagine if Duke could actually shoot the 3-ball? Defense looks really, really solid. Transition scoring is off the charts. Just gotta be a little more consistent from the perimeter.

Our best 3 point shooter isn’t one of our better players, AOC. I’m sure K will work him into the lineup if our 3 point shooting does not increase. I think Cam is in a lil funk but I expect him to be able to hit it consistently soon. Remember Kennard struggled his freshman year, Trent struggled, then went on a tear and then struggled at the end of the year.

As of now, the 3 is a luxury with the way we score. We will need it later in the season when teams will have scouted us better. RJ’s 3 has looked better since Maui.
 
Is this the best defense Duke has shown since 2010?

I know K has been focusing a lot more on the defense than the offense, but their half court offense needs some help. Can't seem to pull away from teams unless they're committing live ball turnovers.

Duke hasn't really had great defensive teams this decade. The 2015 team came together really well in March - played amazing defense, actually. But they struggled in January. I want to say at some point they weren't even in the top 60 for defensive efficiency... 2011 and 2013 were decent years, but not elite, as far as K's standards. So yes, I'd say this probably is the best defense we've seen since 2010.

I agree that the half court offense is struggling. RJ struggled to shoot early - and now Cam is struggling. Would like to see Tre Jones with the ball a little more. Seems like whoever gets the rebound is the one that brings the ball up court; which is great if you want to consistently play fast tempo. We certainly play our best when we play fast - and when we're simultaneously able to speed other teams up, too. Kind of worried how this team is gonna play against a slower-paced opponent.

We're not a jump-shooting team, however. It's just not our strength. We're taking 25 three-pointers per game, which I think is too many. Would like to lower that number to around 17-20 per game. Obviously teams are going to pack the paint so we're forced to shoot from outside, but I think we have enough slashers and our passing is good enough to carve through most defenses.
 
I agree that the half court offense is struggling. RJ struggled to shoot early - and now Cam is struggling. Would like to see Tre Jones with the ball a little more. Seems like whoever gets the rebound is the one that brings the ball up court; which is great if you want to consistently play fast tempo. We certainly play our best when we play fast - and when we're simultaneously able to speed other teams up, too. Kind of worried how this team is gonna play against a slower-paced opponent.

That's my concern, too. The biggest struggles I've seen so far is when the game slows down, fewer possessions, fewer turnovers.
 
Cam Reddish is 1 for 14 in the last two games. On the season, 33% as a team I believe.

Reddish is REALLY struggling, and Zion hasn't shown any ability to step outside and shoot it either.

Free throws might also end up being a problem.
 
Reddish is REALLY struggling, and Zion hasn't shown any ability to step outside and shoot it either.

Free throws might also end up being a problem.

I think the three that Zion hit against Kentucky is what casual fans remember, but he's only hit 1 three since that game. He's shooting 14% from 3.

I agree on the free throws. Only 2 players shooting over 70%. Cam was like 2 for 7 against Indiana, and he's our best free throw shooter.
 
Question for you geniuses. Doesn’t Kenpom use preseason or previous season stats up to a certain point? Thought it took like 10 games or something before it was all calculated with in season stats or something like that.
 
Question for you geniuses. Doesn’t Kenpom use preseason or previous season stats up to a certain point? Thought it took like 10 games or something before it was all calculated with in season stats or something like that.
I don't know exactly I just know I don't pay attention to it until January.
 
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Kansas has looked pretty bad for most of the times I’ve watched them. They just seem to play good ball for about 5-6 minutes in the second half
KU plays a slower more plotting style offense this year, isnt much flow but saying they've played badly most this year is so far off, as bad as a few KU posters here would like you to believe.
 
Kansas has looked pretty bad for most of the times I’ve watched them. They just seem to play good ball for about 5-6 minutes in the second half
Kansas is sitting number 1 in strength of schedule. the gap between us and 2 is larger than the gap between 2 and 13. It's one reason we have looked bad, we have been playing tough competition.
 
Kansas is sitting number 1 in strength of schedule. the gap between us and 2 is larger than the gap between 2 and 13. It's one reason we have looked bad, we have been playing tough competition.
If rankings weren't a popularity contest, there's no reason for KU not to be #1 all season.
 
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If rankings weren't a popularity contest, there's no reason for KU not to be #1 all season.
I mean I understand peoples frustration we are highly ranked and the other team aren't, but we are playing teams that in the end will be in the discussion for the NCAA tourney. Need to give credit where it is due. I believe in the 20-5-5 model (five times you will play poorly, five times out your mind and 20 times normally). Think we have gotten one of the teams 5 out of their minds game so far and are still unscathed. (plus we have thrown a couple of our 5 poor games out there already).
 
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Im a little surprised Kansas's numbers are solid b/c we haven't played anywhere near where we are capable.

Not sure how the defensive rating is that high. They've had some stretches of great D, but overall, FG% and point totals have been relatively high.
 
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I think the three that Zion hit against Kentucky is what casual fans remember, but he's only hit 1 three since that game. He's shooting 14% from 3.

I agree on the free throws. Only 2 players shooting over 70%. Cam was like 2 for 7 against Indiana, and he's our best free throw shooter.

Please don't bring up that game...
 
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KenPom doesn't reveal the actual formulas that he uses, as they are a proprietary algorithim. But, I have read that at the beginning of the season he incorporates projected winnings into the equation (based on a team's potential). This helps create a nice buffer, which prevents teams like Belmont or Loyola Marymount from creeping into the top 10 or top 25.
 
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