Is Alabama a legit contender or fool's gold?

[frazor]

Having a tough time deciding which is the better indicator of what they are as a team. On one hand they are destroying conference opponents but on the other they got blown out by a mediocre OU, gave up 100 to Gonzaga, and took 4 overtimes to beat UNC. Spare me the "live by the 3 die by the 3" rhetoric.

 

[della]

Having a tough time deciding which is the better indicator of what they are as a team. On one hand they are destroying conference opponents but on the other they got blown out by a mediocre OU, gave up 100 to Gonzaga, and took 4 overtimes to beat UNC. Spare me the "live by the 3 die by the 3" rhetoric.

They have a great team and are a ligit threat. I don't see who you would pick to beat them? That said, they are not invincible.

 

[ExitFlagger]

They have a great team and are a ligit threat. I don't see who you would pick to beat them? That said, they are not invincible.

Not sure that they’ve proven to be great. They’re 1-3 vs the top 25 and got worked in those losses.

 

[della]

Not sure that they’ve proven to be great. They’re 1-3 vs the top 25 and got worked in those losses.

Have y'all proven to be great?

 

[snowsquirrel11]

Yes and yes. They have the talent but not sure they can sustain it over 6 games against quality opponents. SEC is weak this year. If I had to bet my house on a team I'd put it on Kansas. They're talented and battle tested.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Have y'all proven to be great?

I don’t throw words like great around casually. I don’t think I’d call any team great at the moment. But relative to the field, KU’s proven plenty. 4 more quad 1 wins than anyone else and just outscored a really good team by 30 in the second half yesterday.

But this thread isn’t about KU.

 

[frazor]

I don’t think I’d call any team great at the moment.

That's what's wild about this season. Could easily see multiple double digit seeds in final four this year. Very few bullet proof teams. I think the 6 game tournament will help Bama focus.

 

[Visk]

They can be good, but i don't think they have the discipline to pay 5 good games in a row.

 

[IUfanBorden]

They can be good, but i don't think they have the discipline to pay 5 good games in a row.

Actually would need 6....

They are good enough

 

[duckboy33]

Legit

 

[ravenman10]

That's what's wild about this season. Could easily see multiple double digit seeds in final four this year. Very few bullet proof teams. I think the 6 game tournament will help Bama focus.

I’m actually going to disagree. I believe the champion will most definitely come from a top 2 seed. I believe there are 8-10 very good teams this year which is why it seems so evenly matched. It’s not because there aren’t really good teams it’s because there is so much more parody.

Only because I’m a KU fan not because I believe them to be the best team but because I can speak to them I’ll use them as an example.

If it weren’t for an unprecedented crazy hard Big 12 with 5 teams in the top 3 seed lines Kansas would have 1-2 losses and people would be calling them great.

But because they lost to a 2 seed, and two 3 seeds along with a TCU team that was healthy, and probably should have beaten Arizona last year people view them as just ok. You play a top 25 team every game of the last two months basically and you are going to take some losses.

It’s like Joey brackets said after the game Saturday “the committee is just going to have to get used to seeing the Big 12 champ take some losses”.

If Kansas, Baylor, or Texas were in the ACC I’d bet they have maybe a loss or two. In the big 12 they all have 4-5.

 

[della]

I’m actually going to disagree. I believe the champion will most definitely come from a top 2 seed. I believe there are 8-10 very good teams this year which is why it seems so evenly matched. It’s not because there aren’t really good teams it’s because there is so much more parody.

Only because I’m a KU fan not because I believe them to be the best team but because I can speak to them I’ll use them as an example.

If it weren’t for an unprecedented crazy hard Big 12 with 5 teams in the top 3 seed lines Kansas would have 1-2 losses and people would be calling them great.

But because they lost to a 2 seed, and two 3 seeds along with a TCU team that was healthy, and probably should have beaten Arizona last year people view them as just ok. You play a top 25 team every game of the last two months basically and you are going to take some losses.

It’s like Joey brackets said after the game Saturday “the committee is just going to have to get used to seeing the Big 12 champ take some losses”.

If Kansas, Baylor, or Texas were in the ACC I’d bet they have maybe a loss or two. In the big 12 they all have 4-5.

. There are several teams that could do pretty well in the ACC this year.

 

[ravenman10]

. There are several teams that could do pretty well in the ACC this year.

Hence why I said I’m just using KU because I can speak to their schedule. I’d say the same about Bama or tenn or Baylor or Tx or Houston etc.

My point was the easy thing to say is there aren’t dominant teams but perhaps they are all just beating on each other and it’s going to be those 8 lefts standing at the end of the year.

I know I won’t be surprised if 5 Big 12 teams make the sweet 16.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Yes, Alabama’s a legit contender. But I don’t know that they should be the favorite. And I do wonder if they could string together 6 good games.

 

[frazor]

I’m actually going to disagree. I believe the champion will most definitely come from a top 2 seed. I believe there are 8-10 very good teams this year which is why it seems so evenly matched. It’s not because there aren’t really good teams it’s because there is so much more parody.

Only because I’m a KU fan not because I believe them to be the best team but because I can speak to them I’ll use them as an example.

If it weren’t for an unprecedented crazy hard Big 12 with 5 teams in the top 3 seed lines Kansas would have 1-2 losses and people would be calling them great.

But because they lost to a 2 seed, and two 3 seeds along with a TCU team that was healthy, and probably should have beaten Arizona last year people view them as just ok. You play a top 25 team every game of the last two months basically and you are going to take some losses.

It’s like Joey brackets said after the game Saturday “the committee is just going to have to get used to seeing the Big 12 champ take some losses”.

If Kansas, Baylor, or Texas were in the ACC I’d bet they have maybe a loss or two. In the big 12 they all have 4-5.

Good point. I agree that the champion will come from a top team. I know there is a reason why a team is a 9 or 11 seed but when you look at some of the schools being slotted in those spots it's hard to imagine they'll stay dormant come tournament time. Could easily see a top seed getting an absolute cake walk into the finals from all of the bedlam as well.

 

[IUfanBorden]

Good point. I agree that the champion will come from a top team. I know there is a reason why a team is a 9 or 11 seed but when you look at some of the schools being slotted in those spots it's hard to imagine they'll stay dormant come tournament time. Could easily see a top seed getting an absolute cake walk into the finals from all of the bedlam as well.

I dunno.....There are some really good teams on that 4, 5 and 6 lines....Who could easily derail a 1 or a 2. 8/9 seeds this year---I mean, can be tough.

Houston vs Rutgers in the 2nd round? Or Texas AM?

Kansas vs Missouri---or possibly Duke?

Purdue vs Auburn or Pitt?

Bama vs NC State?

Those, especially Houston/Rutgers, are some tough ass 2nd round games for a 1-seed.

 

[rockycard]

. There are several teams that could do pretty well in the ACC this year.

Or the SEC, look at A&M for example…..

 

[ravenman10]

I will say some of those big East teams could cause some problems on those 7 to 10 lines for 1 or 2 seeds as well. Creighton will be a tough out.

 

[ExitFlagger]

I dunno.....There are some really good teams on that 4, 5 and 6 lines....Who could easily derail a 1 or a 2. 8/9 seeds this year---I mean, can be tough.

Houston vs Rutgers in the 2nd round? Or Texas AM?

Kansas vs Missouri---or possibly Duke?

Purdue vs Auburn or Pitt?

Bama vs NC State?

Those, especially Houston/Rutgers, are some tough ass 2nd round games for a 1-seed.

No mention of Ok State? They might be the best of Lunardi’s 8/9 seeds.

Seems like Duke should be higher than a 9.

 

[Noahtogo24]

I say Bama is, since if not them , who is ? No true legitimate dominant team this season IMO.

 

[ExitFlagger]

I will say some of those big East teams could cause some problems on those 7 to 10 lines for 1 or 2 seeds as well. Creighton will be a tough out.

Yep. Creighton's a team you don't want to see in an early round.

 

[Boilermaker03]

I dunno.....There are some really good teams on that 4, 5 and 6 lines....Who could easily derail a 1 or a 2. 8/9 seeds this year---I mean, can be tough.

Houston vs Rutgers in the 2nd round? Or Texas AM?

Kansas vs Missouri---or possibly Duke?

Purdue vs Auburn or Pitt?

Bama vs NC State?

Those, especially Houston/Rutgers, are some tough ass 2nd round games for a 1-seed.

Honestly if the game is called clean, I don't see Auburn or Pitt giving Purdue a ton of trouble. Same with Kansas vs Duke or Missouri. I could be wrong.

 

[Noahtogo24]

Honestly if the game is called clean, I don't see Auburn or Pitt giving Purdue a ton of trouble. Same with Kansas vs Duke or Missouri. I could be wrong.

To be fair , I could see any 1 seeds losing first weekend- like I said earlier in this thread or another , since post COVID, no true dominant teams except 21 Baylor and Zags.

 

[Boilermaker03]

To be fair , I could see any 1 seeds losing first weekend- like I said earlier in this thread or another , since post COVID, no true dominant teams except 21 Baylor and Zags.

Sure they can. I just think of the top 4 teams, Kansas and Purdue are the least likely.

 

[KisteK]

I dunno.....There are some really good teams on that 4, 5 and 6 lines....Who could easily derail a 1 or a 2. 8/9 seeds this year---I mean, can be tough.

Houston vs Rutgers in the 2nd round? Or Texas AM?

Kansas vs Missouri---or possibly Duke?

Purdue vs Auburn or Pitt?

Bama vs NC State?

Those, especially Houston/Rutgers, are some tough ass 2nd round games for a 1-seed.

Wouldn't dislike this..

 

[della]

I think the term, "give the Devil his due" was coined for talking about bama. I don't like them and never have and they smell funny.

Having said all that, They are very talented and athletic. There are several #1 seeds I think would get mowed down by them.

 

[Boilermaker03]

I think the term, "give the Devil his due" was coined for talking about bama. I don't like them and never have and they smell funny.

Having said all that, They are very talented and athletic. There are several #1 seeds I think would get mowed down by them.

I agree with everything but your last sentence. They could win, absolutely, but mowed down? No.

 

[della]

I agree with everything but your last sentence. They could win, absolutely, but mowed down? No.

The bammers are pretty good at mowing teams down. Just sayin.

 

[Big_C_KU]

The talent is there. I think the question is can you trust a team that relies so heavily on freshman and can you rely on such a 3pt heavy shooting team in the tournament? The good thing is they look to be a good defensive team with the #3 rated defense by Kenpom so they’re kind of the old Nova strategy of we’re gonna shoot a ton of 3s and limit the your 3pt attempts. Really though there isn’t a team in college basketball that doesn’t have a couple of glaring holes that make you look at them and say “can they win it with that concern?”

 

[Boilermaker03]

The bammers are pretty good at mowing teams down. Just sayin.

Yes, to crappy teams. Their D is good but not that good (metrics say it is, but my eye says otherwise) and they get a lot of open 3's without much action which tells me they are facing terrible D as well.

 

[Boilermaker03]

The talent is there. I think the question is can you trust a team that relies so heavily on freshman and can you rely on such a 3pt heavy shooting team in the tournament? The good thing is they look to be a good defensive team with the #3 rated defense by Kenpom so they’re kind of the old Nova strategy of we’re gonna shoot a ton of 3s and limit the your 3pt attempts. Really though there isn’t a team in college basketball that doesn’t have a couple of glaring holes that make you look at them and say “can they win it with that concern?”

If their D is #3 in the country then I'm a pro football player.

 

[Big_C_KU]

If their D is #3 in the country then I'm a pro football player.

That’s what Kenpom and Torvik say.

 

[Boilermaker03]

That’s what Kenpom and Torvik say.

I know it does, but I've watched them plenty and I don't buy it.

 

[ExitFlagger]

I think the term, "give the Devil his due" was coined for talking about bama. I don't like them and never have and they smell funny.

Having said all that, They are very talented and athletic. There are several #1 seeds I think would get mowed down by them.

I'm sure they're capable of beating anyone, but mowing down Georgia and Vanderbilt is a far cry from mowing down a top 5 team.

 

[della]

I'm sure they're capable of beating anyone, but mowing down Georgia and Vanderbilt is a far cry from mowing down a top 5 team.

If y'all want to ignore what KenPom and them say, suit yourself. If you want to think that beating a bunch of 20-30 ranked teams gives you an edge over a ligit Top 5, fine too.

 

[Boilermaker03]

If y'all want to ignore what KenPom and them say, suit yourself. If you want to think that beating a bunch of 20-30 ranked teams gives you an edge over a ligit Top 5, fine too.

Metrics also say the #7 ranked team is 23rd... Metrics are nice, but not the end all.

 

[ExitFlagger]

That’s what Kenpom and Torvik say.

Kenpom seems pretty bad this year. Do you buy WV as a top 25ish team? St Mary's at #8?

Frankly, I don't think any computer system will ever be able to adequately account for strength of competition.

 

[Boilermaker03]

Kenpom seems pretty bad this year. Do you buy WV as a top 25ish team? St Mary's at #8?

Frankly, I don't think any computer system will ever be able to adequately account for strength of competition.

Totally agree. Metrics seem to be a big mess this year.

 

[ExitFlagger]

If y'all want to ignore what KenPom and them say, suit yourself. If you want to think that beating a bunch of 20-30 ranked teams gives you an edge over a ligit Top 5, fine too.

KU's proven plenty, but nobody's saying that KU would blow out every 1 seed, so I'm not sure why you're bringing them into it.

How does Kenpom indicate that Alabama would mow down the other 1 seeds? Kenpom has them ranked below a Houston team that they beat.

Alabama has a nice win vs Houston. But that kind of seems like an outlier when you look at what's happened vs every other top 25ish team. They lost to Gonzaga by double digits and allowed 100 points. Smoked by Uconn. Tennessee beat them fairly convincingly. And then you have a 30 pt beatdown vs the weakest team in the Big 12.

 

[Boilermaker03]

KU's proven plenty, but nobody's saying that KU would blow out every 1 seed, so I'm not sure why you're bringing them into it.

How does Kenpom indicate that Alabama would mow down the other 1 seeds? Kenpom has them ranked below a Houston team that they beat.

Alabama has a nice win vs Houston. But that kind of seems like an outlier when you look at what's happened vs every other top 25ish team. They lost to Gonzaga by double digits and allowed 100 points. Smoked by Uconn. Tennessee beat them fairly convincingly. And then you have a 30 pt beatdown vs the weakest team in the Big 12.

Oklahoma scored 93 on Alabama. Here's the points scored in the 8 games (3 prior to Bama and 4 after) that Oklahoma played around that time.

Points scored by OK:

56
60
52
93 vs the #3 defense
61
61
72
55

One of these don't fit...