FSU vs UF thoughts and predictions

[GE Nole]

FSU has dominated the series recently. UF has had oodles of talent on paper, but the Noles have been tougher, more athletic, and just looked more comfortable in their system.

But this year might be the closest game in a while. FSU’s four star Pat Williams was one and done, while UF’s 5 star Scottie Lewis needed to come back to school. Combine that with Keyontae Johnson and sharp shooting Noah Locke, and UF has an experienced, athletics, and talented team.
The Gators have also had a week to prepare.

Meanwhile, FSU has a freshman point guard (Scottie Barnes) and less functional depth than we’ve had in recent years, looking like we only go 9 deep right now. The Noles also played an OT grinder on Wednesday.

With normal attendance, I’d say FSU doesn’t lose at home. But that seems to mean much less this year. I’ve got FSU by 1 or 2, but could easily see UF walk away with the first win over the Noles in 7 years.

What says the board?

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

Haven’t seen uf. I know Johnson is tough. Scored 19 on us last year. The reporter on gator bait said uf should forgo trying to get offensive rebounds and turn to get back on defense as FSU so far is more successful converting fast breaks than half-court offense.

That said, I still say FSU close if they can dominate the boards and harass the 3 point. 60’s- FSU game, 70-80’s-uf game. Still early in the year.

 

[supergreennole]

All about the 3 point line, as long as they don’t have a huge disparity there we will win

 

[GE Nole]

I’m thinking both teams will shoot 35-40% from three. Both have some capable shooters.

If FSU wins it will be because of the offensive glass and our ability to force turnovers, IMO.

If UF wins it will be because they kept off the glass and got to the line a lot.

 

[MoreEncore84]

If FSU shoots the 3 and FTs better than they did against Indiana, then we should win. We actually played a bad game against Indiana and came away with the win. If we play a little better against uf, which I hope we are on an upward trajectory 3 games into the season, then I think we get a 5 point victory.

I dont see FSU struggling from the stripe to the tune of 57% for the rest of the season.

But if we do struggle from 3, dont get bench points, and dont make our FTs, then I highly doubt we will be able to pull this one out.

 

[rdgtr]

Wow, an EARLY 11 AM start in Tallahassee!
Hope the teams will be ready to play.
This will be the first game that I will see of my Florida Gators (3-0).
Playing a rivalry game against the Seminoles (2-0) should add some spice.

Due to the Wuhan virus, UF had some marque games cancelled against former #4 Virginia and Oklahoma. Florida already had wins over Army, Boston College(ACC) and Stetson. FSU comes off an OT win over Indiana(Big Ten).

Florida averages 84 ppg (FG%: 50%) while FSU averages 77 ppg (FG:41%) - this could be a high scoring contest. The advantage on the boards goes to FSU(43 reb/G) vs UF(37 reb/G). Both roughly average 5 Blocks/G.

Florida has been turning it over a bit more than FSU: 14 TO/G vs 10.0 TO's.
FSU averages 16A/10 TO per game and UF averages 13.7A/14TO per game.

Florida has been getting to the free-throw line significantly more than Florida State has and the Gators have also been hitting from there, too. This is where the game could be won or lost for Florida:
UF - 76.3% FT (58/76)
FSU - 61.9% FT (26/42)


The Gators are led at point guard by former Micky D All-American, Tre Mann (15.3 ppg, 4.0 A; 84% FT, 62.5% 3P-FG% - 5/8) who has embraced the starting role after two-year starter, Andrew Nembhard transferred to #1 Gonzaga. The pre-season SEC POY candidate, Keyontae Johnson (19.7 ppg, 6.0 reb/g) , returns for his junior year. The rest of the Florida core group of players:
- Scotty Lewis (10.7 ppg, 5.7 reb/G) - slasher/defender
- Noah Locke (11.3 ppg, 47% 3PFG% - 8/17) - 3 point specialist
- Tyree Appleby (7.7 ppg, 2.7 A), Ques Glover - back-up point guards

Center by committee averages 11 ppg/ 7 reb/g:
- Colin Castleton
- Omar Payne
- Justin Jitoboh
- Anthony Duruji

Mike White has a full bench (13+ players deep). Some of the new-comers are still finding their way but Florida has a solid core of 8-10 players.

Should be a good game. The winner will get a nice bump in the national standings.
Both teams should have solid seasons. respectively, in their conferences!

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

75-61 Florida.

 

[Crappy Davenpot]

If FSU shoots the 3 and FTs better than they did against Indiana, then we should win. We actually played a bad game against Indiana and came away with the win. If we play a little better against uf, which I hope we are on an upward trajectory 3 games into the season, then I think we get a 5 point victory.

I dont see FSU struggling from the stripe to the tune of 57% for the rest of the season.

But if we do struggle from 3, dont get bench points, and dont make our FTs, then I highly doubt we will be able to pull this one out.

Ham says this is a good FT shooting team. Still have to prove it in games.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

11am tip is that right?

 

[GE Nole]

If FSU shoots the 3 and FTs better than they did against Indiana, then we should win. We actually played a bad game against Indiana and came away with the win. If we play a little better against uf, which I hope we are on an upward trajectory 3 games into the season, then I think we get a 5 point victory.

I dont see FSU struggling from the stripe to the tune of 57% for the rest of the season.

But if we do struggle from 3, dont get bench points, and dont make our FTs, then I highly doubt we will be able to pull this one out.

FSU shot 40% from 3 against Indiana. That’s pretty darn good. If we shoot 40% from three on the season we will be a top 5 team.

Free throws obviously weren’t good. I can’t imagine we shoot 57% on the season, but I also doubt we shoot anywhere near as good from the line as we did the last two years. We lost 3 of our best FT shooters and replaced them with an awful FT shooter (Barnes).

I wouldn’t be surprised if we are a 65% FT shooting team on the season.

 

[GE Nole]

Ham says this is a good FT shooting team. Still have to prove it in games.

I’d bet a couple hundos that we finish the season outside the top 150 in FT%.

 

[Nole in Toronto]

11am tip is that right?

Yup. Digging the early start. Cold and rainy here so this is perfect.

 

[Nole in Toronto]

FSU shot 40% from 3 against Indiana. That’s pretty darn good. If we shoot 40% from three on the season we will be a top 5 team.

Free throws obviously weren’t good. I can’t imagine we shoot 57% on the season, but I also doubt we shoot anywhere near as good from the line as we did the last two years. We lost 3 of our best FT shooters and replaced them with an awful FT shooter (Barnes).

I wouldn’t be surprised if we are a 65% FT shooting team on the season.

Come tournament time it’s so important to hit your FT’s. FSU has been great at the line the last few tournaments I can remember.

 

[FlGator22]

This isn’t just a streak, it’s dominance. The games are rarely competitive. FSU always jumps out to a big lead by the under 12 timeout.

This year Florida has to score in transition. FSU is long and you can’t let them clog up their defensive half of the court. Nembhard was a horrible point guard to play against FSU because of how slow and methodical he was.

The streak has to end eventually, but I don’t think it’d this year. FSU 70 Florida 58

 

[GE Nole]

Come tournament time it’s so important to hit your FT’s. FSU has been great at the line the last few tournaments I can remember.

Honestly, the amount you get to the line is much more valuable than the actual FT percentage. Here’s an example:

Team A gets to the line 20 times and makes 60%. They made 12 FTs.

Team B gets to the line 10 times and makes 100%. They made 10 FTs.

Obviously you’d like to do both. But if coaches can only pick one, they’d prefer to get to the line more often.

Having said all that, being a good FT shooting “team” is typically a reflection of how good of shooters the guys who take the most free throws are. Last year we had Trent, Pat, Devin, and MJ taking the majority of our FTs, all good FT shooters.

This year we will likely have Barnes, Gray, Balsa, and MJ taking the majority of our FTs. Only MJ projects as an 80%+ FT shooter among that group.

 

[GE Nole]

This isn’t just a streak, it’s dominance. The games are rarely competitive. FSU always jumps out to a big lead by the under 12 timeout.

This year Florida has to score in transition. FSU is long and you can’t let them clog up their defensive half of the court. Nembhard was a horrible point guard to play against FSU because of how slow and methodical he was.

The streak has to end eventually, but I don’t think it’d this year. FSU 70 Florida 58

You’re spot on about Nembhard being an awful matchup against FSU. Trent could just bully him and also blow by him.

But this year it would surprise me as a blowout. Tre Mann is gonna present problems for us. And if Noah Locke gets hot, UF could do what few teams do and leave Tuck with a win.

 

[Noahtogo24]

Good vibes for K. Johnson from Florida- hopefully he is okay.

 

[Gater4Life]

Wow--terrible. Keyontae Johnson for UF just collapsed. I have no idea what happened to him but I don't feel comfortable playing this game. UF was up 11-3 when it happened and the Florida players, rightfully, look really shook up.

 

[UF1Delt]

I don’t see how we compete & stay in this after what happened to Johnson. It’s over...

 

[Gater4Life]

I don’t see how we compete & stay in this after what happened to Johnson. It’s over...

The game shouldn't have continued. The Florida players were literally in tears. The coaching staff was obviously shook up. They gave them 5 minutes and then started the game. That isn't enough time.

 

[FlGator22]

I can’t believe we are still playing. I’ve never met KJ and my hands are shaking scared for him.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Any info on this kid would be appreciated thx guys, what channel is this game on?

 

[UF1Delt]

Gator board from guy at the game says it seemed like a seizure. Apparently when he collapsed he fell face first, split his head & there was blood all over his face. No confirmation of anything just what it supposedly looked like from the stands...

 

[Gater4Life]

Any info on this kid would be appreciated thx guys, what channel is this game on?

ESPNU

 

[FlGator22]

Gator board from guy at the game says it seemed like a seizure. Apparently when he collapsed he fell face first, split his head & there was blood all over his face. No confirmation of anything just what it supposedly looked like from the stands...

What could cause a seizure at this age? I have No idea.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Prayers up for this kid very scary

 

[UF1Delt]

Also from guy at game, said that Coach Hamilton did what he always does & made the classy move to provide the option to Coach White not to continue. Supposedly it was UF & Coach White’s decision to continue to play, likely because it’s what KJ would want...

 

[MoreEncore84]

FSU already in the double bonus. UF might have guys in foul trouble in the 2nd.

 

[Nole in Toronto]

Oh Lort. Barnes is filthy

 

[Gater4Life]

I wonder if the game will continue beyond halftime. It is pretty clear that UF's attention is elsewhere right now. There is no life to UF right now after a very good start.

 

[supergreennole]

Id be fine with the game ending at the half as a draw, weird situation especially with arch rivals

 

[FlGator22]

I wonder if the game will continue beyond halftime. It is pretty clear that UF's attention is elsewhere right now. There is no life to UF right now after a very good start.

Probably going to depend on the health update at halftime. I have spent the whole first half on my phone looking for updates so I can’t imagine what the players will be doing.

 

[Gater4Life]

Probably going to depend on the health update at halftime. I have spent the whole first half on my phone looking for updates so I can’t imagine what the players will be doing.

Same here.

 

[UF1Delt]

Oh Lort. Barnes is filthy

He is. We also only have 1 guy who could match up on him & KJ is in the hospital...

 

[FlGator22]

Barnes is going to send more gators to the hospital if he's not careful. 😳

It’s really hard to believe human beings are capable of saying things like this. You’re a sociopath.

 

[supergreennole]

My immediate thought was whether it was somehow a Covid related thing. Could have created a huge event. Hopefully he is okay and his career can continue

 

[supergreennole]

He is. We also only have 1 guy who could match up on him & KJ is in the hospital...

Could he though? I’m just saying, 6 9 with handles isn’t something you can really matchup with.

 

[UF1Delt]

Could he though? I’m just saying, 6 9 with handles isn’t something you can really matchup with.

You ain’t wrong. Barnes is sure fire lottery level & KJ is only 6’5. But he is extremely quick, explosive & grown man strong. Kinda like a mini Lebron. He has always guarded bigger guys & more than held his own.

Difference would be that Barnes could not go thru KJ like he can everyone else on our roster. He may rise above & get his shot off but KJ is more physical & would at least be able to keep him from getting in deep. Right now Barnes can get wherever he wants & it ain’t pretty for us...

 

[FlGator22]

Key is in critical condition per Florida.

 

[Gater4Life]

Key is in critical condition per Florida.

Just awful