Did you see Len Bias play? I did. He was a 2X ACC POY. Averaged 23ppg as a senior. He was the 2nd pick in the NBA draft. This what then Celtic scout Ed Badger had to say:
He's maybe the closest thing to (Chicago guard) Michael Jordan to come out in a long time. I'm not saying he's as good as Michael Jordan, but he's an explosive and exciting kind of player like that.
Not sure if you seen this kid play. But he was anything but overrated. That's the most absurd take I have ever heard.
K. If you would have read the link I provided, it noted such scouting reports and yet still concluded that he's probably overrated. And they did so not by relying on a single data point or what you 'member from the good ol' days, but with a more holistic analysis.
And considering that Jordan was drafted a whole 2 years before Bias came out, pardon me for not putting a lot of stock in a scout's report that says Bias was the closest to Jordan "to come out in a long time." A long time, eh? And pull up any player taken in the top 10, especially a wing (teams have traditionally reached more on bigs) and you can find some really flattering scouting reports, so putting this in here like some sort of mic drop is hardly convincing.
Add in the young death effect and the glow that damn near every prospect has (until they don't), and it all adds up to a perception that almost certainly exceeds reality. That's not to say that he would have been bad, just that the perception of people like you exceeds any reasonable estimate (i.e. his 75% percentile outcome) of what he actually would have become.