2020-21 Way Too Early Top 50 Teams & Top 100 Players

dragonhawk1855

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I would have WVU at #9 ahead of Texas Tech and Iowa.
why Iowa as I feel they are ranked to low,
starting 5
PG 6'0 Toussaint
SG 6'1 JBo
WG 6'5 Connor
WG 6'6 Wieskamp
C 6'11 Garza
off the bench
PG 6'2 Ulis
SG 6'3 Fredrick
SF 6'8 Patrick
F 6'9 Keegan
C/F 7'0 Nunge
the rest
SG 6'4 Perkins
WG/SF 6'8 Kris
C/F 6'11 Ogundele.

this is the most balanced team in position and height that Fran has ever had.
 
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GE Nole

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Seems reasonable. I haven't really considered Prentiss Hubb, tbh. I'll need to examine him a little closer. I never liked his fg%, but it makes sense that it would be that low when over 60% of his fga are 3-pointers.

GT, Miami, and NC State are all expected to be decent next year. None of them are locks for the tournament, but I don't think it would be terribly surprising if all three schools made it.

VT might actually be the sleeper team for me. Cone, Cattoor, and Alleyne are all capable of shooting 40%+ from three. Cartier Diarra is good enough to make one of the All-ACC teams. VT will finally have some capable bigs with transfers Justyn Mutts and Keve Aluma. And then they have a couple of decent 4-star recruits coming in.

And yes, it's sad that FSU has gone that long without someone making 1st Team. I thought either Vassell or Forrest did enough last year to merit 1st Team honors.
Hubb was 10th in the league in assist rate, which is crazy when you consider he was 2nd in the league in minutes played. He basically assisted on a 1/4 of all of ND’s made shots for the season. And what many don’t know about him is he tore his ACL his senior year of high school. So his 87th composite ranking as a recruit likely undervalued him, and this was really his first year at ND with full health.

I might need more convincing about VT, lol. 7-13 in ACC play last year, losing their best player, and a coach with no major conference track record—oh and all these newcomers didn’t get a real offseason to play together. Like I said, they definitely will be a step above the true dregs of the league, but hard to find more than 8 wins in league play.

As for FSU, serious question: when is the last time the outright regular season champ didn’t have a guy make 1st team all conference?
 

GE Nole

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It'll be easier to look for disparities between teams once I fill-out the complete rosters with stats. As it was, I actually thought Daejon Davis had graduated. So yes, Stanford probably should be a little higher. Maybe in the 23-30 range for me.

Arizona State and Creighton are kind of similar, IMO. They both have a dynamic trio, with Arizona State led by Remy Martin, Josh Christopher, and Alonzo Verge - and Creighton's trio consisting of Zegarowksi, Ballock, and Mahoney. I had Martin and Zegarowksi in my top 10 players. Ballock and Christopher are good enough to be HM All-American/1st Team All-Conference type players. So, really really talented backcourts... but the interior scoring, depth, and defense will be the big question marks. So perhaps they're both a little more vulnerable than my evaluation; I just really like the aspect of having three very, very reliable players... ASU would benefit a lot if Luther Muhammad (Ohio State) and/or Holland Woods (Portland State) become eligible.

I like Texas Tech where I have them, personally. I'm kind of bullish on Terrence Shannon. I think he is poised for a huge breakout year, All-American potential. And then you have transfers Marcus Santos-Silva (13 ppg, 9 reb at VCU) and Joel Ntambwe (12 ppg, 5 reb at UNLV). I think they're both capable of 2nd or 3rd Team All-Conference. Throw in a proven Kyler Edwards (11 ppg, 4 reb, 3 assists) and two top 50 recruits, and you've got yourself 6 really good players. Mac McClung (Georgetown) and Jamarius Burton (Wichita State) are expected to sit the year, but who knows how explosive their team could be with either one of them included.

Tennessee is a very interesting case. They weren't elite in 2020 like they had been the previous two years. But, I fully expect them to return to that status. Fulkerson is incredibly efficient. Pons is crazy athletic, and looks like a future pro. JJJ and Vescovi showed some promise. And yes, UT is bringing in a stud freshmen class, two five-star recruits and another top 100 player. They're also bringing in two quality transfers in Victor Bailey (7 ppg, 39.9% 3-pt, 91% ft at Oregon) and EJ Anosike (16 ppg, 11 reb at Sacred Heart). They have talent and depth. I think they have huge upside.

...Lykes is definitely talented. He's fun to watch. His performance against Illinois, in Champagne, was one of the best individual games by an ACC player last season, IMO. But yes, definitely want to see better ball movement. So perhaps that cuts into their ceiling as a team. Certainly you want to evaluate the upside and downside of each team. And yes, the rankings should mean something. Miami has a ton of talent - 6 of their guys are top 100 recruits. Just a matter of seeing guys like Wong and Beverly take on bigger roles, McGusty being a little more effective, Brooks being a gritty rebounder/rim protector, and again, better ball movement. I think the ranking is justified. But, I'll reevaluate in October and perhaps change the ranking a little bit.

In regards to Isaac and Kai Jones, I simply misread what you wrote. I thought you were saying Kai Jones was competing in the same games as Isaac, and you got to see them up close in person. I was only wondering how developed KJ would have been, seeing how he's 3 years younger. Didn't realize you were just comparing their playing style - and all of the untapped potential that they both possessed.
We are gonna have to agree to disagree on Texas Tech right now. If they were top 15 last year, I could perhaps buy what you’re selling. But they weren’t. They lost 13 games.

Shannon is a good player, but all American isn’t realistic, IMO. He can’t shoot from the perimeter and with Tech losing their two best shooters, there will be less space. At least until others prove themselves capable.

I saw Santos-Silva play up close and in person twice last year. Sat next to NBA scouts during both games. I told one he needs to go put on pads and try out for the NFL and he said, “dang, I’m stealing that for my notes.” He’s a good role player, but not a star. And his brand of bully ball will not add any space for a guy like Shannon. He’s a garbage collector, not a playmaker or floor spacer.

As for Tennessee, I sat next to the same scouts for two of their games too. And damn, I must have seen Fulkerson’s worst game of his career. Looked hesitant and even scared at times. 29 minutes, he went 1-2 with 2 points, grabbed 2 rebounds, and fouled out. Yikes.

I will say he looked much better late in the year, but it remains to be seen which one is the true Fulkerson.
 

dragonhawk1855

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to add to my feeling of why Iowa is grossly under rated Fran also returns Connor who led the BT and the Nation in Assists to TO margin, who is the 3rd leading rebounder with 124 of which 103 were defensive adding 35 steals good for 2nd on the team as a rsso
 

dukedevilz

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Hubb was 10th in the league in assist rate, which is crazy when you consider he was 2nd in the league in minutes played. He basically assisted on a 1/4 of all of ND’s made shots for the season. And what many don’t know about him is he tore his ACL his senior year of high school. So his 87th composite ranking as a recruit likely undervalued him, and this was really his first year at ND with full health.

I might need more convincing about VT, lol. 7-13 in ACC play last year, losing their best player, and a coach with no major conference track record—oh and all these newcomers didn’t get a real offseason to play together. Like I said, they definitely will be a step above the true dregs of the league, but hard to find more than 8 wins in league play.

As for FSU, serious question: when is the last time the outright regular season champ didn’t have a guy make 1st team all conference?
10th in assist rate? Are you talking about assist-turnover, assists per game, or assist percentage? Not sure I'm following the crazy aspect of that. Efficiency usually goes down with more minutes, so maybe you're alluding to that?

As talented as Landers Nolley was, his high volume-shooting was detrimental to the team. He averaged over 14 shots per game, and had an effective fg percentage of 44.4%. Not good. Diarra is better than Nolley. Also, for a team that was 305th in the country in rebounding margin, I'd say having Mutts and Aluma is going to be HUGE. VT is still probably going to play 4 around 1, but they should have players that compliment each other better this season.

UVA actually won the ACC in 2014 by two games, and they didn't have anyone make 1st Team All-Conference.

We are gonna have to agree to disagree on Texas Tech right now. If they were top 15 last year, I could perhaps buy what you’re selling. But they weren’t. They lost 13 games.

Shannon is a good player, but all American isn’t realistic, IMO. He can’t shoot from the perimeter and with Tech losing their two best shooters, there will be less space. At least until others prove themselves capable.

I saw Santos-Silva play up close and in person twice last year. Sat next to NBA scouts during both games. I told one he needs to go put on pads and try out for the NFL and he said, “dang, I’m stealing that for my notes.” He’s a good role player, but not a star. And his brand of bully ball will not add any space for a guy like Shannon. He’s a garbage collector, not a playmaker or floor spacer.

As for Tennessee, I sat next to the same scouts for two of their games too. And damn, I must have seen Fulkerson’s worst game of his career. Looked hesitant and even scared at times. 29 minutes, he went 1-2 with 2 points, grabbed 2 rebounds, and fouled out. Yikes.

I will say he looked much better late in the year, but it remains to be seen which one is the true Fulkerson.
I understand the hesitancy with Shannon's 3-point shooting. But, he didn't shoot many threes - and he was 83% from the ft line. Good free throw shooters are more likely to correct underwhelming percentages from the perimeter. Santos-Silva isn't needed for spacing. TT is only going to play 1 big - and they weren't a great rebounding team. He'll likely only be the #4 or #5 scoring option, but he should be a much needed presence in the paint. Also, Texas Tech was #21 by KenPom last year. They lost 13 games, yes, but their overall efficiency numbers were pretty solid. Lost to a lot of good teams.

In regards to Fulkerson, everyone has bad games; he was reliable for the most part. That's why he was 2nd Team All-Conference. Dude finished the season scoring 68 points in the final three games against Florida, Kentucky, and Auburn. I also think Victor Bailey is being overlooked by most. Very, very good shooter.
 
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GE Nole

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10th in assist rate? Are you talking about assist-turnover, assists per game, or assist percentage? Not sure I'm following the crazy aspect of that. Efficiency usually goes down with more minutes, so maybe you're alluding to that?

As talented as Landers Nolley was, his high volume-shooting was detrimental to the team. He averaged over 14 shots per game, and had an effective fg percentage of 44.4%. Not good. Diarra is better than Nolley. Also, for a team that was 305th in the country in rebounding margin, I'd say having Mutts and Aluma is going to be HUGE. VT is still probably going to play 4 around 1, but they should have players that compliment each other better this season.

UVA actually won the ACC in 2014 by two games, and they didn't have anyone make 1st Team All-Conference.



I understand the hesitancy with Shannon's 3-point shooting. But, he didn't shoot many threes - and he was 83% from the ft line. Good free throw shooters are more likely to correct underwhelming percentages from the perimeter. Santos-Silva isn't needed for spacing. TT is only going to play 1 big - and they weren't a great rebounding team. He'll likely only be the #4 or #5 scoring option, but he should be a much needed presence in the paint. Also, Texas Tech was #21 by KenPom last year. They lost 13 games, yes, but their overall efficiency numbers were pretty solid. Lost to a lot of good teams.

In regards to Fulkerson, everyone has bad games; he was reliable for the most part. That's why he was 2nd Team All-Conference. Dude finished the season scoring 68 points in the final three games against Florida, Kentucky, and Auburn. I also think Victor Bailey is being overlooked by most. Very, very good shooter.
Assist rate or assist percentage, same thing. The number of assists that a player accumulated compared to all possible assists that occurred while he was on the court.

If you play 2 min a game and there are only 2 made baskets while you were on the floor, if you assisted on one of them then your assist rate is 50%. Which doesn’t mean a whole lot because it was 2 garbage time minutes.

Hubb played 91% of ND’s minutes (itself and astounding number) which means he was on the floor for pretty much every basket ND made last year. So no matter who else was around him on the floor, he was getting them open looks. He assisted on 26%+ of the baskets made while he was on the court (which was essentially the whole game lol). Just to compare, Tre Jones had a 24% assist rate his freshman year, then exploded to 31.4% this past year.

See, assists/turnover ratio isn’t a stat I like a whole lot because it doesn’t factor in the guys you’re passing to. You could make a perfect pass but then the guy misses the open 3 footer. Assist rate is way better.

Yes, Texas Tech was 21st. That’s my point. They weren’t even a top 15 team, they lost their top two players/shooters, and now you’re saying they should become a top 12-15 team. I just don’t feel confident in that.

Could they be top 15? It’s possible. But they could also not be top 25. To have them ranked 12th seems to only be looking at their positive potential and not their negative. You have to weigh all the realistic outcomes, not just rank a team based on their ceiling. Tech’s ceiling looks like around 10th. Their floor looks like 35th or so. Wouldn’t a ranking around 20-25 make more sense? Or do you think their ceiling is top 5?

And regarding Silva, I didn’t mean to imply that you said he would floor space. Just more that I don’t know who will do that for Tech and it certainly won’t be him. Shannon only attempted 35 threes because he’s not good or comfortable shooting them. It’s not like he didn’t have the minutes. I’m sure he improves some but I’d guess it’s a pretty short list of guys who go from 9-35 one year to something like 40-110 the next year. So he probably won’t be the main perimeter threat either. So who will?

Fulkerson is solid, I agree. His game against Kentucky was fantastic. I just found it funny I must have attended the worst game of his career.

Oh and good note about UVA in 2014. Once every 5-10 years seems like then. Any coincidence it happened both times when a non-Tobacco Road team won it?
 

SheriffBufordTJustice

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In the minds of the ignorant
Wasn't impressed by Tech last year.

They would have scoring droughts even with Clarke and Ramsey

Their defense did drop off and could be better next year with Burnett.

Burnett is actually a Chris Beard style player. I haven't measured him or seen him in person but they say he has 6-10 wingspan as a Guard

They are a team that maximizes their scoring. Still will be that team. The question becomes can they hold you down and how much trouble can you give their offense.

Last year...
Texas was actually better in this when they played Texas Tech
Baylor was a lot better


When you look at the Big 12...
Look at the teams who can consistently hold teams to below 65 points and have 2-3 great scoring options


To me.
Tech isn't there in comparison to WVU, Texas, Baylor and Kansas

They don't have the Marcus Garrett.

Burnett could become this player but when is the question
I am thinking more 6-7 tSeed

I actually like Oklahoma more than them because Lon Kruger can find ways to score with his bigs
Oklahoma was a better team than Tech last year to finish the season
 

dukedevilz

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Assist rate or assist percentage, same thing. The number of assists that a player accumulated compared to all possible assists that occurred while he was on the court.

If you play 2 min a game and there are only 2 made baskets while you were on the floor, if you assisted on one of them then your assist rate is 50%. Which doesn’t mean a whole lot because it was 2 garbage time minutes.

Hubb played 91% of ND’s minutes (itself and astounding number) which means he was on the floor for pretty much every basket ND made last year. So no matter who else was around him on the floor, he was getting them open looks. He assisted on 26%+ of the baskets made while he was on the court (which was essentially the whole game lol). Just to compare, Tre Jones had a 24% assist rate his freshman year, then exploded to 31.4% this past year.

See, assists/turnover ratio isn’t a stat I like a whole lot because it doesn’t factor in the guys you’re passing to. You could make a perfect pass but then the guy misses the open 3 footer. Assist rate is way better.

Yes, Texas Tech was 21st. That’s my point. They weren’t even a top 15 team, they lost their top two players/shooters, and now you’re saying they should become a top 12-15 team. I just don’t feel confident in that.

Could they be top 15? It’s possible. But they could also not be top 25. To have them ranked 12th seems to only be looking at their positive potential and not their negative. You have to weigh all the realistic outcomes, not just rank a team based on their ceiling. Tech’s ceiling looks like around 10th. Their floor looks like 35th or so. Wouldn’t a ranking around 20-25 make more sense? Or do you think their ceiling is top 5?

And regarding Silva, I didn’t mean to imply that you said he would floor space. Just more that I don’t know who will do that for Tech and it certainly won’t be him. Shannon only attempted 35 threes because he’s not good or comfortable shooting them. It’s not like he didn’t have the minutes. I’m sure he improves some but I’d guess it’s a pretty short list of guys who go from 9-35 one year to something like 40-110 the next year. So he probably won’t be the main perimeter threat either. So who will?

Fulkerson is solid, I agree. His game against Kentucky was fantastic. I just found it funny I must have attended the worst game of his career.

Oh and good note about UVA in 2014. Once every 5-10 years seems like then. Any coincidence it happened both times when a non-Tobacco Road team won it?
The rise in Tre's assist rate is pretty simple, IMO. In 2019, RJ, Zion, and Cam often took the ball up the court when they got a defensive rebound. Those three combined for 8.3 assists per game, while Tre had 5.3 a game himself. I saw it more of a result of simply having the ball in his hands more, not so much that that he became a more reliant passer with better vision. If anything, I'd say he was more careless this season. That was my gut impression, and the stats provide evidence for that. He actually had 7 more total assists, and 25 fewer turnovers in 2019.

I'm not sure about the whole "teammate misses a wide-open shot" effecting someone's assists to turnover rate. With any dominant ball-handler, you're going to have a larger sample of passes that result in field goals attempted by teammates. Some of the guys will miss gimmes... but some of them will also make lucky/low-percentage shots, too. When their teammates attempt 8-15 shots a game from one of their passes, those rare exceptions, going either way, are going to be negligible.

Back to Texas Tech. So, Kyler Edwards is a career 36% shooter from 3. Joel Ntambwe shot 38.6% at UNLV. Nimari Burnett has a reputation for being a deadly three-point shooter. So yes, they absolutely have some guys that can space the floor. And consider the fact that TTU won 8 NCAA Tournament games in 2018 & 2019, and Brandone Francis was their only top 100 recruit. Crazy. I usually give Chris Beard the benefit of the doubt anyway, so I do believe their ceiling is a little higher than 10th. And look at the preseason rankings by some college basketball prognosticators:

ESPN- 9
NBC Sports- 10
Sports Illustrated- 10
Jeff Goodman- 10
Pat McMahon- 10
USA Today- 10
Gary Parrish- 18
Jon Rothstein- 24

Joe Lunardi- 3 seed

I wasn't really looking at any of the rankings when I was formulating my own. I went on Bart Torvik's website from time-to-time to verify what players were on the roster. That's about it. But, 10th doesn't seem too far-fetched when I see several publications with Tech in the top 10.

...There probably is a bit of regional voting bias in the triangle area. However, Virginia plays at the slowest pace in the country. And, of course, FSU plays some 10-11 guys consistently. So while it does seem unfair, it's easy to understand why voters overlook the FSU/UVA players when the raw stats don't look as impressive. FSU, without a doubt, deserved a 1st Team selection last year.
 

MrBaracus

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Wasn't impressed by Tech last year.

They would have scoring droughts even with Clarke and Ramsey

Their defense did drop off and could be better next year with Burnett.

Burnett is actually a Chris Beard style player. I haven't measured him or seen him in person but they say he has 6-10 wingspan as a Guard

They are a team that maximizes their scoring. Still will be that team. The question becomes can they hold you down and how much trouble can you give their offense.

Last year...
Texas was actually better in this when they played Texas Tech
Baylor was a lot better


When you look at the Big 12...
Look at the teams who can consistently hold teams to below 65 points and have 2-3 great scoring options


To me.
Tech isn't there in comparison to WVU, Texas, Baylor and Kansas

They don't have the Marcus Garrett.

Burnett could become this player but when is the question
I am thinking more 6-7 tSeed

I actually like Oklahoma more than them because Lon Kruger can find ways to score with his bigs
Oklahoma was a better team than Tech last year to finish the season
You’re obsessed with Tech.

Why don’t you ever weigh in in the politics thread at the top?
 

SheriffBufordTJustice

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In the minds of the ignorant
The rise in Tre's assist rate is pretty simple, IMO. In 2019, RJ, Zion, and Cam often took the ball up the court when they got a defensive rebound. Those three combined for 8.3 assists per game, while Tre had 5.3 a game himself. I saw it more of a result of simply having the ball in his hands more, not so much that that he became a more reliant passer with better vision. If anything, I'd say he was more careless this season. That was my gut impression, and the stats provide evidence for that. He actually had 7 more total assists, and 25 fewer turnovers in 2019.

I'm not sure about the whole "teammate misses a wide-open shot" effecting someone's assists to turnover rate. With any dominant ball-handler, you're going to have a larger sample of passes that result in field goals attempted by teammates. Some of the guys will miss gimmes... but some of them will also make lucky/low-percentage shots, too. When their teammates attempt 8-15 shots a game from one of their passes, those rare exceptions, going either way, are going to be negligible.

Back to Texas Tech. So, Kyler Edwards is a career 36% shooter from 3. Joel Ntambwe shot 38.6% at UNLV. Nimari Burnett has a reputation for being a deadly three-point shooter. So yes, they absolutely have some guys that can space the floor. And consider the fact that TTU won 8 NCAA Tournament games in 2018 & 2019, and Brandone Francis was their only top 100 recruit. Crazy. I usually give Chris Beard the benefit of the doubt anyway, so I do believe their ceiling is a little higher than 10th. And look at the preseason rankings by some college basketball prognosticators:

ESPN- 9
NBC Sports- 10
Sports Illustrated- 10
Jeff Goodman- 10
Pat McMahon- 10
USA Today- 10
Gary Parrish- 18
Jon Rothstein- 24

Joe Lunardi- 3 seed

I wasn't really looking at any of the rankings when I was formulating my own. I went on Bart Torvik's website from time-to-time to verify what players were on the roster. That's about it. But, 10th doesn't seem too far-fetched when I see several publications with Tech in the top 10.

...There probably is a bit of regional voting bias in the triangle area. However, Virginia plays at the slowest pace in the country. And, of course, FSU plays some 10-11 guys consistently. So while it does seem unfair, it's easy to understand why voters overlook the FSU/UVA players when the raw stats don't look as impressive. FSU, without a doubt, deserved a 1st Team selection last year.
Their defense dropped off slightly last year.


Burnett is the player who could make them tough on the perimeter again. Difficult seeing a freshman being able to do that from Day 1.

If they are going to be a Top 10 team they will have to be elite defensively.

Not sure about what the UNLV transfer brings..
Cannot remember his name offhand but the St John's transfer they had during their run in the middle along with Culver made that team tough on the perimeter.

Don't see that on their roster.
 

GE Nole

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The rise in Tre's assist rate is pretty simple, IMO. In 2019, RJ, Zion, and Cam often took the ball up the court when they got a defensive rebound. Those three combined for 8.3 assists per game, while Tre had 5.3 a game himself. I saw it more of a result of simply having the ball in his hands more, not so much that that he became a more reliant passer with better vision. If anything, I'd say he was more careless this season. That was my gut impression, and the stats provide evidence for that. He actually had 7 more total assists, and 25 fewer turnovers in 2019.

I'm not sure about the whole "teammate misses a wide-open shot" effecting someone's assists to turnover rate. With any dominant ball-handler, you're going to have a larger sample of passes that result in field goals attempted by teammates. Some of the guys will miss gimmes... but some of them will also make lucky/low-percentage shots, too. When their teammates attempt 8-15 shots a game from one of their passes, those rare exceptions, going either way, are going to be negligible.

Back to Texas Tech. So, Kyler Edwards is a career 36% shooter from 3. Joel Ntambwe shot 38.6% at UNLV. Nimari Burnett has a reputation for being a deadly three-point shooter. So yes, they absolutely have some guys that can space the floor. And consider the fact that TTU won 8 NCAA Tournament games in 2018 & 2019, and Brandone Francis was their only top 100 recruit. Crazy. I usually give Chris Beard the benefit of the doubt anyway, so I do believe their ceiling is a little higher than 10th. And look at the preseason rankings by some college basketball prognosticators:

ESPN- 9
NBC Sports- 10
Sports Illustrated- 10
Jeff Goodman- 10
Pat McMahon- 10
USA Today- 10
Gary Parrish- 18
Jon Rothstein- 24

Joe Lunardi- 3 seed

I wasn't really looking at any of the rankings when I was formulating my own. I went on Bart Torvik's website from time-to-time to verify what players were on the roster. That's about it. But, 10th doesn't seem too far-fetched when I see several publications with Tech in the top 10.

...There probably is a bit of regional voting bias in the triangle area. However, Virginia plays at the slowest pace in the country. And, of course, FSU plays some 10-11 guys consistently. So while it does seem unfair, it's easy to understand why voters overlook the FSU/UVA players when the raw stats don't look as impressive. FSU, without a doubt, deserved a 1st Team selection last year.
We can agree to disagree on the value of raw stats (total assists, total points scored) versus advanced metrics. I just don’t find that raw totals give a very nuanced perspective. Of course, no single stat is magic. All have to considered within the totality of the circumstances. But for my personal taste, assist rate is a more complete stat than total assists. Especially when comparing across seasons, as the players around them change.

Chris Beard is incredible. I fully agree with giving him the benefit of the doubt. Honestly, if Chris Beard wasn’t at Texas Tech I wouldn’t even consider them for the top 25 this year.

Citing other publications is nice, but my guess would be those publications aren’t overly accurate. You compared three of the best ranking systems and yours ended up being the best by a small margin. I would imagine yours are far better overall than NBC Sports or USA Today. And I’d imagine mine are too.

Your point about slow pace for UVA and tons of depth for FSU are valid. And they are ones I agree with. Just for clarity, I didn’t start the conversation to complain about Tobacco Road bias. There are 4 teams from TR, and it’s a basketball crazed state. It’s only natural there would be the most media from that area, and it’s only natural that those media members would be more familiar with and biased toward the players they cover most.

All my point was, due to the aforementioned depth of FSU, and the inherent bias of the media members making the decision, I don’t find it all that likely that Scottie Barnes makes 1st team All ACC. He will be very good. And he will be a lotto pick. Just don’t think he’s first team all conference.
 

dukedevilz

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Their defense dropped off slightly last year.


Burnett is the player who could make them tough on the perimeter again. Difficult seeing a freshman being able to do that from Day 1.

If they are going to be a Top 10 team they will have to be elite defensively.

Not sure about what the UNLV transfer brings..
Cannot remember his name offhand but the St John's transfer they had during their run in the middle along with Culver made that team tough on the perimeter.

Don't see that on their roster.
The 2019 team had the top rated defense in KenPom history. So it's not surprising that their was a slight drop-off. The 9th rated defense is still pretty darn good, especially considering they only returned one starter. I think Shannon and McCullar are both really good defenders. I heard Shannon grew two inches, too. That can't hurt, if true.

Joel Ntambwe is Jonathan Kuminga's older brother. He'll be a redshirt sophomore and easily slide into the 4 spot. He's obviously not as talented as his younger brother, but I expect to see him in the NBA at some point. And yes, Nimari Burnett is perfect for Beard's system. One of the most talented players he's ever signed. Good bunch of players. Wouldn't be surprising at all to see their defense in the top 5.

We can agree to disagree on the value of raw stats (total assists, total points scored) versus advanced metrics. I just don’t find that raw totals give a very nuanced perspective. Of course, no single stat is magic. All have to considered within the totality of the circumstances. But for my personal taste, assist rate is a more complete stat than total assists. Especially when comparing across seasons, as the players around them change.

Chris Beard is incredible. I fully agree with giving him the benefit of the doubt. Honestly, if Chris Beard wasn’t at Texas Tech I wouldn’t even consider them for the top 25 this year.

Citing other publications is nice, but my guess would be those publications aren’t overly accurate. You compared three of the best ranking systems and yours ended up being the best by a small margin. I would imagine yours are far better overall than NBC Sports or USA Today. And I’d imagine mine are too.

Your point about slow pace for UVA and tons of depth for FSU are valid. And they are ones I agree with. Just for clarity, I didn’t start the conversation to complain about Tobacco Road bias. There are 4 teams from TR, and it’s a basketball crazed state. It’s only natural there would be the most media from that area, and it’s only natural that those media members would be more familiar with and biased toward the players they cover most.

All my point was, due to the aforementioned depth of FSU, and the inherent bias of the media members making the decision, I don’t find it all that likely that Scottie Barnes makes 1st team All ACC. He will be very good. And he will be a lotto pick. Just don’t think he’s first team all conference.
Good observations. And solid points on why Barnes would be omitted from 1st Team All-ACC. There probably is a slight tobacco road bias. I always think of a regional bias in terms of voting for the Heisman, but it probably rings true on a smaller-scale, too. I don't think those voting for postseason season awards are looking at advanced statistics very often - even though they absolutely should. I'm guessing most like to look at per game averages and the eye test. So unfortunately, FSU and UVA are likely to get shafted by those who don't put a whole lot of thought into their selections.

Beard is a machine. I've heard from multiple basketball gurus that he's incredibly well-organized and he runs some of the best practices you'll ever see. Hoping to see him in Durham in 4-5 years

I'd like to think my rankings are better than the typical pollster. I try to be very careful with my evaluations. That being said, the top 50 that I posted ITT wasn't overly-scrutinized. I suspect my rankings will be vastly different in October. Do you have rankings of your own? Sounds like you were alluding to that a little bit. I'd be curious to see your list, if you have one available.
 
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HawksJ

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13. Marcus Garrett, Kansas
35. Ochai Agbaji, Kansas
42. Quentin Grimes, Houston
95. Charlie Moore, DePaul
These rankings would make heads explode on the home board.

8 months ago, we had people starting threads stating that any team with MG in the rotation would never be a good one.

Several months prior to that, the expert consensus was that Grimes and Moore weren’t legit high-major players.

Now, Ochai is the fashionable whipping boy, with some predicting that he might get bumped from the rotation.
 

dukedevilz

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These rankings would make heads explode on the home board.

8 months ago, we had people starting threads stating that any team with MG in the rotation would never be a good one.

Several months prior to that, the expert consensus was that Grimes and Moore weren’t legit high-major players.

Now, Ochai is the fashionable whipping boy, with some predicting that he might get bumped from the rotation.
Grimes and Moore have both improved quite a bit since leaving Lawrence, IMO. I think Grimes and Moore are both the most valuable players for their respective schools.

KU does have lots of options. Christian Braun shoots lights-out, and probably merits more minutes. Tyon Grant-Foster is arguably the best JUCO player in the country. Bryce Thompson is uber-talented, and many suspect he'll start from day one. I think Enauara showed flashes of promise. I expect much better production from him. Didn't really see Jalen Wilson play, so I don't know what to make of him.

I can't imagine a scenario where Garrett isn't starting at the point guard spot, however. Agbaji is one of those guys where you're like, "Well, when is he going to break out? Should happen any moment." And then it doesn't happen. So Idk. Maybe he will lose his starting job. What's the general consensus on the starting lineup for KU - and who will be the key reserves?
 

SheriffBufordTJustice

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In the minds of the ignorant
The 2019 team had the top rated defense in KenPom history. So it's not surprising that their was a slight drop-off. The 9th rated defense is still pretty darn good, especially considering they only returned one starter. I think Shannon and McCullar are both really good defenders. I heard Shannon grew two inches, too. That can't hurt, if true.

Joel Ntambwe is Jonathan Kuminga's older brother. He'll be a redshirt sophomore and easily slide into the 4 spot. He's obviously not as talented as his younger brother, but I expect to see him in the NBA at some point. And yes, Nimari Burnett is perfect for Beard's system. One of the most talented players he's ever signed. Good bunch of players. Wouldn't be surprising at all to see their defense in the top 5.



Good observations. And solid points on why Barnes would be omitted from 1st Team All-ACC. There probably is a slight tobacco road bias. I always think of a regional bias in terms of voting for the Heisman, but it probably rings true on a smaller-scale, too. I don't think those voting for postseason season awards are looking at advanced statistics very often - even though they absolutely should. I'm guessing most like to look at per game averages and the eye test. So unfortunately, FSU and UVA are likely to get shafted by those who don't put a whole lot of thought into their selections.

Beard is a machine. I've heard from multiple basketball gurus that he's incredibly well-organized and he runs some of the best practices you'll ever see. Hoping to see him in Durham in 4-5 years

I'd like to think my rankings are better than the typical pollster. I try to be very careful with my evaluations. That being said, the top 50 that I posted ITT wasn't overly-scrutinized. I suspect my rankings will be vastly different in October. Do you have rankings of your own? Sounds like you were alluding to that a little bit. I'd be curious to see your list, if you have one available.
Perimeter defense really dropped off.

It was because of length. Tariq Owens was a physical specimen. Guy could guard any inch of the court.
Culver as well.


Burnett gives them more length.
I just don't see an improvement in their offense. Going to have to come with their defense. Young team makes you think they won't be consistent enough to be a Top 10 team. Especially in the Big 12 next year.

Could be a great team by March. I expect ups and downs again.
 

SheriffBufordTJustice

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Marcus Garrett is the glue for Kansas.

Definitely best on the ball defender in the Big 12 maybe in the country.

Guy Shaka really wanted. He thinks he has one with Donovan Williams

But Garrett is who allowed Kansas to have an elite defense last year.
 

GE Nole

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The 2019 team had the top rated defense in KenPom history. So it's not surprising that their was a slight drop-off. The 9th rated defense is still pretty darn good, especially considering they only returned one starter. I think Shannon and McCullar are both really good defenders. I heard Shannon grew two inches, too. That can't hurt, if true.

Joel Ntambwe is Jonathan Kuminga's older brother. He'll be a redshirt sophomore and easily slide into the 4 spot. He's obviously not as talented as his younger brother, but I expect to see him in the NBA at some point. And yes, Nimari Burnett is perfect for Beard's system. One of the most talented players he's ever signed. Good bunch of players. Wouldn't be surprising at all to see their defense in the top 5.



Good observations. And solid points on why Barnes would be omitted from 1st Team All-ACC. There probably is a slight tobacco road bias. I always think of a regional bias in terms of voting for the Heisman, but it probably rings true on a smaller-scale, too. I don't think those voting for postseason season awards are looking at advanced statistics very often - even though they absolutely should. I'm guessing most like to look at per game averages and the eye test. So unfortunately, FSU and UVA are likely to get shafted by those who don't put a whole lot of thought into their selections.

Beard is a machine. I've heard from multiple basketball gurus that he's incredibly well-organized and he runs some of the best practices you'll ever see. Hoping to see him in Durham in 4-5 years

I'd like to think my rankings are better than the typical pollster. I try to be very careful with my evaluations. That being said, the top 50 that I posted ITT wasn't overly-scrutinized. I suspect my rankings will be vastly different in October. Do you have rankings of your own? Sounds like you were alluding to that a little bit. I'd be curious to see your list, if you have one available.
I think Beard ends up in Lawrence, but maybe that’s just me hoping he doesn’t land in Durham, lol.

I don’t do a formal top 50 like you but I like to rank within conferences and predict those. And as the season goes on I create a sort of personal power ranking for NCAAT bracket use, that typically serves me very well come pickem time.
 

Noahtogo24

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I think Beard ends up in Lawrence, but maybe that’s just me hoping he doesn’t land in Durham, lol.

I don’t do a formal top 50 like you but I like to rank within conferences and predict those. And as the season goes on I create a sort of personal power ranking for NCAAT bracket use, that typically serves me very well come pickem time.
I rather have Beard at Duke than Brad Stevens- If K lasts another 4-5 seasons, and the Celtics still have not made the NBA finals, will Boston be looking for a change?
 

GE Nole

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I rather have Beard at Duke than Brad Stevens- If K lasts another 4-5 seasons, and the Celtics still have not made the NBA finals, will Boston be looking for a change?
I suppose that’s possible. But couldn’t Brad just get another NBA job?
 

SheriffBufordTJustice

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In the minds of the ignorant
I think Beard ends up in Lawrence, but maybe that’s just me hoping he doesn’t land in Durham, lol.

I don’t do a formal top 50 like you but I like to rank within conferences and predict those. And as the season goes on I create a sort of personal power ranking for NCAAT bracket use, that typically serves me very well come pickem time.
Beard's cashed in when he should have.
His stock will slowly decrease.

He isn't leaving Lubbock anytime soon.
There are some things he could really improve on.
If you set him up with an elite offensive coach does he listen. His offense isn't going to blow you away.
Needs someone else in the room.
 

Ipartiedwithhopgood

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Beard has won as many NCAA post season games at Tech as all of the previous coaches at Tech have combined.

Could end up being like Few out @ Gonzaga. If he just keeps the Ws coming he may be content where he is. Having a decade of time as an assistant @ Tech probably makes him a long term guy there.
 

dukedevilz

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Beard has won as many NCAA post season games at Tech as all of the previous coaches at Tech have combined.

Could end up being like Few out @ Gonzaga. If he just keeps the Ws coming he may be content where he is. Having a decade of time as an assistant @ Tech probably makes him a long term guy there.
That is a good point. Few has had ample opportunity to leave Gonzaga. He's said multiple times he loves Spokane and he doesn't have any interest in leaving the school.

The same could hold true for Beard. He's been in Lubbock for 14 years now, has been to the Regional Finals in the past two NCAA Tournaments, and he's the 5th highest paid coach in college basketball. Not too many schools would be able to lure Beard away from Texas Tech at this point. Hard to imagine him voluntarily going anywhere that wasn't a blue blood program. But, he may just as well be content to stay with the winning tradition that he's established.
 

Fight r8rs Fight!

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That is a good point. Few has had ample opportunity to leave Gonzaga. He's said multiple times he loves Spokane and he doesn't have any interest in leaving the school.

The same could hold true for Beard. He's been in Lubbock for 14 years now, has been to the Regional Finals in the past two NCAA Tournaments, and he's the 5th highest paid coach in college basketball. Not too many schools would be able to lure Beard away from Texas Tech at this point. Hard to imagine him voluntarily going anywhere that wasn't a blue blood program. But, he may just as well be content to stay with the winning tradition that he's established.
Beard always talks about "building" a program, that's what gives me belief/faith that he'll be in Lubbock for a while. That could be me being homer, but he really stresses how he wants to "build" a program.
 

dukedevilz

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Gonzaga's Filip Petrusev signed with Mega Bemax last week. His collegiate career is now over. Actually not a huge, huge blow - as Gonzaga frontcourt is incredibly deep. Timme and Watson, both rising sophomore, were top 50 recruits. Timme should be the go-to big man. Ballo and Zahkarov are both top 100 recruits, as well. So yeah, I think their frontcourt will be just fine. Retaining Ayayi and Kispert is much more imperative, IMO.
 

MGC_07

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Gonzaga's Filip Petrusev signed with Mega Bemax last week. His collegiate career is now over. Actually not a huge, huge blow - as Gonzaga frontcourt is incredibly deep. Timme and Watson, both rising sophomore, were top 50 recruits. Timme should be the go-to big man. Ballo and Zahkarov are both top 100 recruits, as well. So yeah, I think their frontcourt will be just fine. Retaining Ayayi and Kispert is much more imperative, IMO.
Drew Timme is going to be a great player for them down the road. He averaged 10/5 on 62% True shooting percentage in 20 minutes a game. With increased minutes with the loss of Petrusev, I think we see a big season out of him.
 

UL_1986

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Drew Timme is going to be a great player for them down the road. He averaged 10/5 on 62% True shooting percentage in 20 minutes a game. With increased minutes with the loss of Petrusev, I think we see a big season out of him.
Liked Timme’s game a lot. Wish we could’ve got him.
 

MGC_07

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Liked Timme’s game a lot. Wish we could’ve got him.
Same here. We were recruiting him pretty hard for a while, but I think we prioritized Vernon Carey and Isaiah Stewart more (sigh). Really wish we went all out for Timme though.
 
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dukedevilz

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Timme is a nice contrast to Petrusev. He doesn't mind roughing it up; Petrusev was very finesse, and seemed to shy away from contact. Gotta love Timme's efficiency, as well as his incredibly high motor. At some point I expect to see him reach All-American status, perhaps in 2022.
 

UL_1986

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Timme is a nice contrast to Petrusev. He doesn't mind roughing it up; Petrusev was very finesse, and seemed to shy away from contact. Gotta love Timme's efficiency, as well as his incredibly high motor. At some point I expect to see him reach All-American status, perhaps in 2022.
You think he’ll stick around that long though?
 

Original_Irish

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Gonzaga hasn't had to worry about having dominant big men for a while. Next man up. I'm excited to see what Timme does as a starter and Ballo has the opportunity to be an absolute force.
 
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dukedevilz

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Gonzaga hasn't had to worry about having dominant big men for a while. Next man up. I'm excited to see what Timme does as a starter and Ballo has the opportunity to be an absolute force.
My only concern with the bigs, do any of them have the ability to stretch the floor a little bit? Does Watson fit that mold?
 

Original_Irish

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My only concern with the bigs, do any of them have the ability to stretch the floor a little bit? Does Watson fit that mold?
Yes Watson can and they had success with Kispert at the 4 too. I could see them doing that when Ballo is on the court since he is such a good rim protector.
 
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SheriffBufordTJustice

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Agreed, he may not be a great pro, but he can be a great college player.
A few basketball people I am familiar with know him from growing up in Texas.
Always been an energy guy.

Knew he was going to be a decent player. Just interested in where you think his ceiling is at.

I think I ended up going to sleep when they played Arizona.
Was impressed with their forward Nnaji.

Did Timme match up pretty well with their quickness up front.
 

dukedevilz

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A few basketball people I am familiar with know him from growing up in Texas.
Always been an energy guy.

Knew he was going to be a decent player. Just interested in where you think his ceiling is at.

I think I ended up going to sleep when they played Arizona.
Was impressed with their forward Nnaji.

Did Timme match up pretty well with their quickness up front.
For someone who's likely to play four years in college, he had a pretty solid freshman campaign. Better than Petrusev's freshmen year, IMO. Wouldn't be surprised at all if he becomes an All-American before leaving Spokane.

And yes, Nnaji had a really, really spectacular freshmen season. Probably the only freshmen who performed better were Vernon Carey, Onyeka Okongwu, and Isaiah Stewart. He performed better than the other two Arizona freshmen, who were much higher rated in high school.