1/6 CBB Aggregate Ranking

[JVDBeak'em]

You must have at least 1 vote in BOTH the AP and Coaches Poll to be eligible.
Then those teams are ranked based on their AP, Coaches, KenPom, Sagarin, NET, BPI & RPI Rankings.
There were 35 teams eligible this week, down from 39.

1. Duke (2.1) -0.8
2. Kansas (2.3) -.01
3. Auburn (6.4) -1.6
4. Butler (6.6) -2.7
4. Michigan State (6.6) -5.0
6. Gonzaga (7.9) +0.8
7. Baylor (8.6) -0.7
7. San Diego State (8.6) -2.5
9. Maryland (10.6) -0.8
10. Ohio State (11.1) +5.8
11. Oregon (11.4) +3.1
11. Dayton (11.4) -4.5
13. Florida State (12.1) -6.2
13. West Virginia (12.1) -1.0
15. Louisville (15.1) +4.4
16. Arizona (17.1) -3.0
17. Villanova (19.1) +5.2
18. Penn State (19.7) -1.3
19. Michigan (20.9) +4.2
20. Kentucky (21.4) -1.9
21. Wichita State (21.6) -1.4
22. Seton Hall (22.4) -7.6
23. Texas Tech (24.3) -4.8
24. Iowa (24.6) +2.7
25. Wisconsin (25.3) NR

Next 5 In: Virginia (25.4) -2.2, Marquette (25.9) -0.4, Arkansas (25.9) -2.0, Memphis (26.3) +7.3, Xavier (27.7) -0.9

Biggest jumps: Seton Hall (7.6), Florida State (6.1), Michigan State (5.0), Texas Tech (4.9), Dayton (4.4)
Biggest drops: Memphis (7.3), Ohio State (5.9), Villanova (5.3), Louisville (4.4), Michigan (4.1)

According to the computers poll averages, they suggest the human polls overrate the following teams:
Virginia 18 vs 33 (-15), Memphis 21 vs 32 (-11), Kentucky 14 vs 24 (-10), Gonzaga 1 vs 11 (-10), Colorado 25 vs 34 (-9)

According to the computers poll averages, they suggest the human polls underrate the following teams:
Wisconsin 32 vs 22 (10), Arizona 24 vs 15 (9), West Virginia 17 vs 9 (8.0), Dayton 15 vs 8 (7), Seton Hall 26 vs 19 (7)

 

[JVDBeak'em]

Very large gap between Duke & KU vs #3. It's pretty rare to have that wide of up gap that high up in the polls.

 

[JVDBeak'em]

Auburn's #3 ranking in the RPI helped them jump to #3 overall. If you threw RPI out, they would be #6.

Gonzaga's #28 ranking in the RPI hurt them, causing them to fall to #6. Without the RPI they would be #3 by a pretty wide margin.

No team would have climbed or fallen more than 3 spots without the RPI. 20 of the 25 teams would have stayed the same or +/- 1.

 

[denniden]

Very large gap between Duke & KU vs #3. It's pretty rare to have that wide of up gap that high up in the polls.

I think the gap between the top two and the bottom two is larger this year than years past when you’ve posted these rankings as well.

 

[ExitFlagger]

The narrative among a lot of people after the Champions Classic was that Michigan St and Kentucky were elite while Duke and KU were weak.

It seems the opposite were true.

 

[JVDBeak'em]

The narrative among a lot of people after the Champions Classic was that Michigan St and Kentucky were elite while Duke and KU were weak.

It seems the opposite were true.

I wouldn't call Michigan State weak by any means, and definitely wouldn't want them in my bracket come March.
Kentucky is just young and not as talented as usual. If they all stay, they will be pretty damn good next year.

If KU can be better than not terrible at shooting 3's, I think they will be the team to beat.
If they can be decent at hitting 3's, I think they would be unstoppable.
They are 275th in 3pt% and don't have anyone that can hit at 40%. When they face a team that gets hot in March, their season will end if they have to go shot for shot.
Dok being able to shoot 60% from the line instead of 30% would help even that out a little bit.

I haven't watched Duke since the Champions Classic. They should roll the ACC.

 

[supergreennole]

I really dont understand how Dayton is so highly ranked. Yes they look like a tournament team, and yes, they have a great player. But they don’t have the results to justify that ranking

 

[dukedevilz]

I really dont understand how Dayton is so highly ranked. Yes they look like a tournament team, and yes, they have a great player. But they don’t have the results to justify that ranking

Disagree, wholeheartedly. They're 13-2 with two overtime losses to Kansas and Colorado. They're 289th in the the KenPom luck factor. They're two baskets away from being 15-0.

 

[Jackson-3]

The narrative among a lot of people after the Champions Classic was that Michigan St and Kentucky were elite while Duke and KU were weak.

It seems the opposite were true.

If they want the Champions Classic to mean something they need to move it to first of December or later. Basically making it the first game of the season for all teams is a crap shoot. You dont learn anything from it except that they now have a quality game on the resume.

 

[supergreennole]

Disagree, wholeheartedly. They're 13-2 with two overtime losses to Kansas and Colorado. They're 289th in the the KenPom luck factor. They're two baskets away from being 15-0.

Okay, so the OT loss to Kansas is respectable, but it was the championship game of a tournament in Maui, third day in a row playing. Prior to that, they beat on overrated VT team, and UGA who is still at this point a fringe bubble team. 15-0 is fine, but it still isn't exactly a schedule filled with High Majors, or even known mid majors. Colorado is also a decent loss, but it still wasn't a win.

 

[dukedevilz]

Okay, so the OT loss to Kansas is respectable, but it was the championship game of a tournament in Maui, third day in a row playing. Prior to that, they beat on overrated VT team, and UGA who is still at this point a fringe bubble team. 15-0 is fine, but it still isn't exactly a schedule filled with High Majors, or even known mid majors. Colorado is also a decent loss, but it still wasn't a win.

They didn't just beat Virginia Tech and Georgia, they mauled them. Won by a combined 46 points. VT and UGA are 52nd and 55th in the NET Rankings, which is pretty solid. They also comfortably beat Saint Mary's (#39 in NET, #29 in KenPom) comfortably by 10 on a neutral court. They're in the top 15 of every single computer ranking for a reason.

 

[supergreennole]

They didn't just beat Virginia Tech and Georgia, they mauled them. Won by a combined 46 points. VT and UGA are 52nd and 55th in the NET Rankings, which is pretty solid. They also comfortably beat Saint Mary's (#39 in NET, #29 in KenPom) comfortably by 10 on a neutral court. They're in the top 15 of every single computer ranking for a reason.

But we know that the Net, this early, is a flawed metric. Most of the top 20 is ridiculous. It doesn’t get much better after that. I’d say that the models are all equally flawed due to an inability to assign context to when and where a game is played, and other factors. We will see what happens down the line, but VT is not a win worth crowing about. If the UGA game was played in January I’d be more willing to give credit, but it’s the 6th game if the year.

 

[dukedevilz]

But we know that the Net, this early, is a flawed metric. Most of the top 20 is ridiculous. It doesn’t get much better after that. I’d say that the models are all equally flawed due to an inability to assign context to when and where a game is played, and other factors. We will see what happens down the line, but VT is not a win worth crowing about. If the UGA game was played in January I’d be more willing to give credit, but it’s the 6th game if the year.

I think it's odd to qualify games as being too early in the season. Should we remove Dayton's loss to Kansas because it was in November? And every single computer model has Dayton in the top 15. Time will tell soon enough if Dayton is legit, as 4 of their next 6 games are Quad 1 matchups.

NET: 8th
KenPom: 8th
BPI: 10th
Sagarin: 15th
KPI: 12th

 

[ExitFlagger]

Computer rankings aside, basically everyone that has seen Dayton play has been impressed. They pass the eye test. In a down year, they’re definitely a standout team. Wouldn’t even be shocked by a final four.

 

[ExitFlagger]

I wouldn't call Michigan State weak by any means, and definitely wouldn't want them in my bracket come March.
Kentucky is just young and not as talented as usual. If they all stay, they will be pretty damn good next year.

If KU can be better than not terrible at shooting 3's, I think they will be the team to beat.
If they can be decent at hitting 3's, I think they would be unstoppable.
They are 275th in 3pt% and don't have anyone that can hit at 40%. When they face a team that gets hot in March, their season will end if they have to go shot for shot.
Dok being able to shoot 60% from the line instead of 30% would help even that out a little bit.

I haven't watched Duke since the Champions Classic. They should roll the ACC.

Kentucky and Mich St will both have good seasons, but neither was playing well to start the season.

As for KU being 275th in 3 pt %, are you sure you’re not thinking of attempts? I know they’re in that ballpark in attempts but their percentage hasn’t been bad.

 

[supergreennole]

I think it's odd to qualify games as being too early in the season. Should we remove Dayton's loss to Kansas because it was in November? And every single computer model has Dayton in the top 15. Time will tell soon enough if Dayton is legit, as 4 of their next 6 games are Quad 1 matchups.

NET: 8th
KenPom: 8th
BPI: 10th
Sagarin: 15th
KPI: 12th

Sure, remove it. It still wouldn’t be a win. There is definitely something to a result being in the first month of a season being the last month of a season, or somewhere in between. Teams haven’t developed into what they really resemble once the postseason comes around, barring injury or suspension

 

[dukedevilz]

There is definitely something to a result being in the first month of a season being the last month of a season, or somewhere in between. Teams haven’t developed into what they really resemble once the postseason comes around, barring injury or suspension

Your grasping for straws. I was never arguing that. While I agree that a team in November doesn't resemble a team in March, it doesn't dismiss the fact that a result still remains. Dayton hasn't exactly slowed down. They have arguably the best player in college basketball, they shoot well, they pass well, they have multiple guys that can create their own shot, they defend reasonably well.

I'd say they're much closer to being 15-0 than they are to being 12-3. Anyone who has seen them play would say, "Yes, that absolutely is a top 25 team." If you don't think they're a top 25 team, then it's likely that you've seen them play little to no games this season. How many teams would you take over Dayton on a neutral court?

 

[JVDBeak'em]

Kentucky and Mich St will both have good seasons, but neither was playing well to start the season.

As for KU being 275th in 3 pt %, are you sure you’re not thinking of attempts? I know they’re in that ballpark in attempts but their percentage hasn’t been bad.

Sorry, you are correct. It was 275th in 3pt attempts.
They are 103rd in percentage, but it's the 3rd worst % since Self has been at Kansas. They're either hot or cold, 6 games above 40%, 4 games under 23%.

 

[RipThru]

How many of you use these metrics to fill out your brackets in March?

 

[MGC_07]

How many of you use these metrics to fill out your brackets in March?

Me. That’s why I usually do pretty well. I took Texas Tech to the Final Four last year when no one else did because they had been the best team in CBB via Kenpom for the second half of the season.

 

[schoonerwest]

How many of you use these metrics to fill out your brackets in March?

I pick my brackets based off of what places I'd rather visit.

I've won 6 of the last 22 years doing this, for what it's worth.

 

[dukedevilz]

How many of you use these metrics to fill out your brackets in March?

A little bit of everything.

1. Eye Test

2. I like for my National Champion to have a top 20 offense and defense. This year Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, and Louisville fit that criteria. Michigan State, Butler, Maryland, and Auburn are close.

3. Last 10-15 Games. I evaluate the last 10-15 games very closely.

4. The metrics are helpful when identifying upsets. Don't look for mid-majors with crappy offenses. Their defenses are almost always mediocre; a good mid-major is more likely to knock off a team if they can simply outscore the other team, instead of grinding it out with defense.

I had UVA winning it all last year. Also, had Texas Tech and Auburn in my Final Four for my office pool. Just missed out on a perfect Final Four when I picked Duke over MSU in the Elite 8. That's probably better than most years, but I usually finish in the top 3 (of about 15).

 

[supergreennole]

Your grasping for straws. I was never arguing that. While I agree that a team in November doesn't resemble a team in March, it doesn't dismiss the fact that a result still remains. Dayton hasn't exactly slowed down. They have arguably the best player in college basketball, they shoot well, they pass well, they have multiple guys that can create their own shot, they defend reasonably well.

I'd say they're much closer to being 15-0 than they are to being 12-3. Anyone who has seen them play would say, "Yes, that absolutely is a top 25 team." If you don't think they're a top 25 team, then it's likely that you've seen them play little to no games this season. How many teams would you take over Dayton on a neutral court?

I don't know how I'm grasping for straws. I commented that a result earlier in the year isn't as meaningful, and you said you found it odd to focus on that. And my main point was, rewarding teams for close losses, without large wins, seems to be off to me. Yes, they do look very good. But they've played two road games all year, and both just recently against very poor teams. Sure they have beaten some teams that you know the name of, but not a single one of them is considered a tournament team at this point in time. The good news is that this will all play out on the court, but rankings just make little sense to me.
I'll switch gears to Michigan so no one can confuse this for picking on the little guy. Michigan has one win, albeit a very good win, in their entire schedule. All the other teams that are worth any salt this year have beaten them. Yet, they climbed the rankings unlike anything you ever see.

 

[MGC_07]

A little bit of everything.

1. Eye Test

2. I like for my National Champion to have a top 20 offense and defense. This year Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, and Louisville fit that criteria. Michigan State, Butler, Maryland, and Auburn are close.

3. Last 10-15 Games. I evaluate the last 10-15 games very closely.

4. The metrics are helpful when identifying upsets. Don't look for mid-majors with crappy offenses. Their defenses are almost always mediocre; a good mid-major is more likely to knock off a team if they can simply outscore the other team, instead of grinding it out with defense.

I had UVA winning it all last year. Also, had Texas Tech and Auburn in my Final Four for my office pool. Just missed out on a perfect Final Four when I picked Duke over MSU in the Elite 8. That's probably better than most years, but I usually finish in the top 3 (of about 15).

I had MSU, Texas Tech, and UVA in my Final Four. Missed on Auburn though

 

[dukedevilz]

I had MSU, Texas Tech, and UVA in my Final Four. Missed on Auburn though

Very solid. Anytime you get more than two FF picks you're almost guaranteed of winning a pool. It's a crapshoot, really. But, if you take time to look and some metrics and a few other variables, more often than not you'll perform better than those who go mostly chalk.

 

[dukedevilz]

I don't know how I'm grasping for straws. I commented that a result earlier in the year isn't as meaningful, and you said you found it odd to focus on that. And my main point was, rewarding teams for close losses, without large wins, seems to be off to me. Yes, they do look very good. But they've played two road games all year, and both just recently against very poor teams. Sure they have beaten some teams that you know the name of, but not a single one of them is considered a tournament team at this point in time. The good news is that this will all play out on the court, but rankings just make little sense to me.

Seemed like you were dismissing their wins in Maui because it was too early in the season. And they're not getting credit for the close losses, they're simply not tumbling down the rankings. If they got rewarded for the losses to KU and CU, there's a good chance they would be projected as a #1 seed.

On bracketmatrix, which aggregates all of the brackets, Dayton is the second highest 4th seed. A 4 seed seems reasonable as they're 8th in the nation in scoring margin, they have the 3rd most efficient offense, a top 50 defense, and they only have two very narrow losses to account for. They beat Saint Mary's, which absolutely is considered a tournament team (#33 team on Bracket Matrix). Georgia and Virginia Tech are both bubble teams, and they both got crushed by Dayton

I'll switch gears to Michigan so no one can confuse this for picking on the little guy. Michigan has one win, albeit a very good win, in their entire schedule. All the other teams that are worth any salt this year have beaten them. Yet, they climbed the rankings unlike anything you ever see.

Michigan rose to #4 in the AP Poll after they defeated Iowa State, UNC, and Gonzaga. The Iowa State and UNC wins aren't as valuable now, but they were considered very solid wins at the time. UM also has wins over Iowa and Creighton (both are projected 7 seeds). They have an average seed of 4.48 by the bracketologists, which I think is about right.