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Will Duke hang on to the One Seed?

I don’t see UNC making the sweep this year. It’s so rare in this series and Zion should be back.

I don’t think Gonzaga should get a one given their schedule, but they will because they are good. Just not sure how good. They haven’t had to battle like some of the other big boys.

When is the last time UNC and Duke split the season series, with each winning on the road? I'm too lazy to look.
 
K likes to play his top players 35-40 minutes as the year goes on. Most years he narrows his rotation to 7-8 players. It is a coaching strategy that is not favorable for developing bench players. They get shots early in the year, but not so much later on.

Roy, for instance plays deep into his bench to the dismay of some of his fans at times. But that is why his teams are better in March than they were in November just about every year.

Also, being a top 50 recruit doesn't always mean you will be a great contributor to the team as being a 3 star doesn't mean that you won't be a great contributor to your team. Some players just adapt to a system better than others.

Isn’t that a coaches job? Recruit players who fit a system and a specific skill set of that system, and then develop them to get the most out?

I guess it just seems nuts that Duke can’t even get a couple minutes worth of positive contributions from much of its bench.
 
I don't mean this as a flame or slight, more just an oddity. It's crazy to me how Duke's bench is full of top 50 recruits, yet seems utterly useless. While the bench of teams like FSU, VT, and Texas Tech are full of 3 stars, yet those guys come in and make fantastic contributions.

How does that happen?

No flame. K just likes playing his best players more minutes. It’s a risk and reward type situation, but has netted him 5 titles, 12 Final Fours and 1,100+ wins. I can disagree with the method, but I can’t disagree with the results.
 
UNC replacing Duke on the top line isn’t happening. If Gonzaga loses I say 2 more games and UNC takes care of business I see them taking their spot.
Don't be so certain. If Duke loses 2 of their last 3 including the game against unc that would mean that they finished the regular season 2-4. If they struggle in the ACCT, even more of a negative. Injuries can be considered, but how much. 1 or 2 losses? Sure. 4 or 5? Nah.
 
As long as Duke really doesn't shit down their leg before the ACCT starts, they'll be a one.

UNC is going to need some luck to be a one. One of UK, Virginia, or Gonzaga would have to have 2 more loses down the stretch
 
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No flame. K just likes playing his best players more minutes. It’s a risk and reward type situation, but has netted him 5 titles, 12 Final Fours and 1,100+ wins. I can disagree with the method, but I can’t disagree with the results.

But was the bench this useless back in the 90s and early 2000s? Did the Jay Williams/Carlos Boozer team get next to nothing from its bench? Or is this more a recent phenomenon as K has shifted to a strategy that revolves around One and Done?
 
Isn’t that a coaches job? Recruit players who fit a system and a specific skill set of that system, and then develop them to get the most out?

I guess it just seems nuts that Duke can’t even get a couple minutes worth of positive contributions from much of its bench.
I have already stated that I cannot remove blame from Krzyzewski regarding the development of some of his players. It is betting on what card you will pull out of a deck.
 
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But was the bench this useless back in the 90s and early 2000s? Did the Jay Williams/Carlos Boozer team get next to nothing from its bench? Or is this more a recent phenomenon as K has shifted to a strategy that revolves around One and Done?
Yes. It is revolved around the OAD. That is obvious. That's why Battle went to Syracuse and other players transferred. K has dedicated himself and Duke to showcase the OAD's and that has taken a toll on role players.
 
UNC fans insist they would have won it all in 2012 if Marshall was healthy.

This is a stretch even for you, Mr. Insecurity. No one insists they would have won it all, just that they had the best chance to beat that UK team.
 
This is a stretch even for you, Mr. Insecurity. No one insists they would have won it all, just that they had the best chance to beat that UK team.

Sure Mr. Sensitive. Notice how the narrative has changed. It went from “we would have won it all to we had the best chance to beat UK.” Keep digging
 
What happens if they lose to UNC again in the regular season? That would be two losses to UNC and 3rd in the conference.
Losing in Chapel Hill isn't going to knock Duke off the 1 line and let's face it, UNC beat Duke in Cameron, it was a great game, but even Roy will tell you, that team didn't have time to adjust to Zion going down.

But if you're thinking UNC should take their place on the one line, I just don't see it. UNC got hammered in CH by Louisville and got beat at home by UVA.
UNC was at full strength in those games too.

Also, look at Duke's ratings on KenPom, they won't come off the 1 line with those numbers unless they completely tank.
 
Yes. It is revolved around the OAD. That is obvious. That's why Battle went to Syracuse and other players transferred. K has dedicated himself and Duke to showcase the OAD's and that has taken a toll on role players.

Gotcha. Thanks.
 
If UNC finished the year with five loses, it would be hard to imagine them not having a one seed. I guess in this scenario, who do you see not getting a one?
I see the issue you're alluding to. I guess I think the answer is Duke, and that makes me smile a little bit. Now, do I think the Heels will win out? No. I'd say there is about a 10% chance of that. Beat Duke and it climbs to 25% or so. Just saying the Heels are in control of their own destiny, imo.
 
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I get the all-in mentality, but these guys look like walkons out there. Just totally out of their element. And I guess what I’m saying is, 3 star freshmen are making impacts elsewhere right away.

I hate to defend Duke, but where are 3 star freshmen making immediate impacts?

When is the last time UNC and Duke split the season series, with each winning on the road? I'm too lazy to look.

2016. It happens a lot, actually.

But was the bench this useless back in the 90s and early 2000s? Did the Jay Williams/Carlos Boozer team get next to nothing from its bench? Or is this more a recent phenomenon as K has shifted to a strategy that revolves around One and Done?

Those teams were loaded with guys who would be OAD in today's era.

Losing in Chapel Hill isn't going to knock Duke off the 1 line and let's face it, UNC beat Duke in Cameron, it was a great game, but even Roy will tell you, that team didn't have time to adjust to Zion going down.

But if you're thinking UNC should take their place on the one line, I just don't see it. UNC got hammered in CH by Louisville and got beat at home by UVA.
UNC was at full strength in those games too.

Also, look at Duke's ratings on KenPom, they won't come off the 1 line with those numbers unless they completely tank.

Just to nitpcik, UNC was winning and possibly pulling away against UVA when Cam Johnson went down with an ankle injury. He came back late but didn't do anything. Also, Nas Little went out in the first half early with an ankle turn and missed another game after. Finally, Duke caught UVA with a couple guys out as well.
 
Sure Mr. Sensitive. Notice how the narrative has changed. It went from “we would have won it all to we had the best chance to beat UK.” Keep digging
The narrative was never "we would have won it all" other than in that little, insecure head of yours. Keep hating though. Oh, and keep losing. Laughing Good times.
 
I see the issue you're alluding to. I guess I think the answer is Duke, and that makes me smile a little bit. Now, do I think the Heels will win out? No. I'd say there is about a 10% chance of that. Beat Duke and it climbs to 25% or so. Just saying the Heels are in control of their own destiny, imo.
Yea, I would agree they are. I also agree in this scenario, Duke would have to be the odd team out, assuming Gonzaga doesn't drop 1 or 2.
 
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Losing in Chapel Hill isn't going to knock Duke off the 1 line and let's face it, UNC beat Duke in Cameron, it was a great game, but even Roy will tell you, that team didn't have time to adjust to Zion going down.

But if you're thinking UNC should take their place on the one line, I just don't see it. UNC got hammered in CH by Louisville and got beat at home by UVA.
UNC was at full strength in those games too.

Also, look at Duke's ratings on KenPom, they won't come off the 1 line with those numbers unless they completely tank.
Does the committee care about how teams finish the season? Asking for a friend.
 
But was the bench this useless back in the 90s and early 2000s? Did the Jay Williams/Carlos Boozer team get next to nothing from its bench? Or is this more a recent phenomenon as K has shifted to a strategy that revolves around One and Done?

And if you think about it (the way K plays) he’d rather rack up the wins in November-January to build a strong resume for stumbles in February. That’s why Duke usually gets a top 1-3 seed almost every year because we beat great teams in the OOC and win 10+ ACC games a year to set us up for an easier path in March. Again, his approach as yielded excellent results over the last 30 years.
 
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I hate to defend Duke, but where are 3 star freshmen making immediate impacts?



2016. It happens a lot, actually.



Those teams were loaded with guys who would be OAD in today's era.



Just to nitpcik, UNC was winning and possibly pulling away against UVA when Cam Johnson went down with an ankle injury. He came back late but didn't do anything. Also, Nas Little went out in the first half early with an ankle turn and missed another game after. Finally, Duke caught UVA with a couple guys out as well.
Not to mention Nas slept through the first 20 games. Also, we beat the Zags when were weren't really playing all that well. Were the Zags at full strength then? I really have no idea.
 
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The narrative was never "we would have won it all" other than in that little, insecure head of yours. Keep hating though. Oh, and keep losing. Laughing Good times.

Wait? Are you seriously saying UNC fans NEVER said they would have won it all in 2012 if Marshall hadn’t got hurt?
 
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Wait? Are you seriously saying UNC fans NEVER said they would have won it all 2012 if Marshall hadn’t got hurt?
Some fanatics went off the deep end? No way! If you want to bring irrational fans into this discussion, feel free. Anyone that said that is an idiot. Nobody knows what would've happened. We all know one thing, UK won it all. However, any rational fan knows the Heels had the best chance to stop that team (with a healthy Marshall).
 
It’s really an odd situation. Duke hasn’t lost a full game when the whole team is healthy. At the same time, we’ve looked awful vulnerable with just Zion out... but is that natural? The bench guys who were really doing well earlier this year don’t seem to be doing quite as well. Very odd year. I’m gonna reserve judgment until Zion gets back and we see what happens in the ACC tourney.

Hey, end of day, all that matters is winning the last six games.

Y'all lost to Gonzaga at full strength, right? And your team is very thin this year, so I don't think it's very surprising that missing the best talent since KD (and maybe LeBron, and yes I think Zion is a better talent than AD, but solely due to how reliant bigs are on others for offense) is such a large detriment. Missing out on a second shot creator that also doubles as a rim protector - the ultimate basketball combination - is a pretty big deal.
 
Not to mention Nas slept through the first 20 games. Also, we beat the Zags when were weren't really playing all that well. Were the Zags at full strength then? I really have no idea.

Roy alluded to the fact Nas was dealing with an injury before the ankle and chest in his presser the other day. It would explain why he has looked a step slow.
 
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Some fanatics went off the deep end? No way! If you want to bring irrational fans into this discussion, feel free. Anyone that said that is an idiot. Nobody knows what would've happened. We all know one thing, UK won it all. However, any rational fan knows the Heels had the best chance to stop that team (with a healthy Marshall).

That was the only team I thought had a reasonable shot against UK that year, but I think UK would have been a solid, if not overwhelming, favorite (like 3.5 points or so).
 
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Some fanatics went off the deep end? No way! If you want to bring irrational fans into this discussion, feel free. Anyone that said that is an idiot. Nobody knows what would've happened. We all know one thing, UK won it all. However, any rational fan knows the Heels had the best chance to stop that team (with a healthy Marshall).

But you had a healthy Marshall and lost to them in the regular season. You also lost to FSU twice that year and by 30 points. Roy is also winless vs. KU in the NCAA Tournament. A healthy Marshall didn’t ensure anything but that didn’t stop the “UNC would have won it all,,,eer UNC had the best chance to stop 2012 UK” takes either.
 
Does the committee care about how teams finish the season? Asking for a friend.
Did you see the last 4 words in my post?

"Unless they completely tank"

See, ESPN has hyped this Duke team so much that they could have 8 losses and still get a 1 seed, especially when you consider the Zion injury and the Syracuse loss when Jones went down.

Duke is getting a 1 seed, you might as well accept that reality.

Just like we have to accept the reality that Gonzaga is going to get a 1 seed with their awful resume.
 
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But you had a healthy Marshall and lost to them in the regular season. You also lost to FSU twice that year and by 30 points. Roy is also winless vs. KU in the NCAA Tournament. A healthy Marshall didn’t ensure anything but that didn’t stop the “UNC would have won it all,,,eer UNC had the best chance to stop 2012 UK” takes either.
Great cherry picking, Mr. Insecurity. Still bothering you I see. Yikes. Laughing
 
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Did you see the last 4 words in my post?

"Unless they completely tank"

See, ESPN has hyped this Duke team so much that they could have 8 losses and still get a 1 seed, especially when you consider the Zion injury and the Syracuse loss when Jones went down.

Duke is getting a 1 seed, you might as well accept that reality.

Just like we have to accept the reality that Gonzaga is going to get a 1 seed with their awful resume.

Is tanking losing to Carolina and then losing again in the tournament? Honest question, because I think that's enough for the Heels to jump them.
 
Is anyone picking Gonzaga to win it all? They will be bringing a long winning streak into the NCAA Tournament and teams usually don’t win it all when doing that.
 
Is tanking losing to Carolina and then losing again in the tournament? Honest question, because I think that's enough for the Heels to jump them.
It will be interesting.

We can all agree on many things here, especially the fact that the committee is very inconsistent.

If Duke loses 2 or 3 games to finish out the season and the other 4 teams in contention hold serve, Duke could slip to a two seed.

But you have to agree that ESPN has hyped this Duke team more than any team in the history of college basketball. I mean, they are getting more coverage on ESPN than the Dallas Cowboys and that is saying something.

Committee members can be influenced just like us and ESPN has been Duke's biggest campaign manager and they have the loudest platform.

Plus, fully healthy, Duke is the best team.
 
Is anyone picking Gonzaga to win it all? They will be bringing a long winning streak into the NCAA Tournament and teams usually don’t win it all when doing that.
Not just that, but they are 1-2 in games against ranked teams. They beat Duke when both teams were playing their 3rd game in 3 days. Duke has a thin bench, Gonzaga doesn't win if that game is played on day 1.

Gonzaga is good, but I don't think they are one of the best 4 teams.
 
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It will be interesting.

We can all agree on many things here, especially the fact that the committee is very inconsistent.

If Duke loses 2 or 3 games to finish out the season and the other 4 teams in contention hold serve, Duke could slip to a two seed.

But you have to agree that ESPN has hyped this Duke team more than any team in the history of college basketball. I mean, they are getting more coverage on ESPN than the Dallas Cowboys and that is saying something.

Committee members can be influenced just like us and ESPN has been Duke's biggest campaign manager and they have the loudest platform.

Plus, fully healthy, Duke is the best team.
Agree with everything you said, especially the part about the hype train not slowing down if Zion comes back. All they have to do is beat Carolina with Zion, and there is no question they are a, if not the, one seed.
 
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