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Who are your winners

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Boilermaker03

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Oct 5, 2004
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Purdue
I have 5 brackets. One is a homer pick (because I couldn't live with myself if I didn't do at least one). Here are my championship picks for each:

Purdue (homer)
UCLA
Texas Tech
Baylor
Kentucky

Originally I had Kansas winning one and Arizona winning another, but an interesting stat was brought up that had me rethink things. Of the last 6 NCAA champs, none won their conference tournament.

What do you have?
 
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Boilermaker03 said:
I have 5 brackets. One is a homer pick (because I couldn't live with myself if I didn't do at least one). Here are my championship picks for each:

Purdue (homer)
UCLA
Texas Tech
Baylor
Kentucky

Originally I had Kansas winning one and Arizona winning another, but an interesting stat was brought up that had me rethink things. Of the last 6 NCAA champs, none won their conference tournament.

What do you have?
Click to expand...
You can exclude Baylor as well.

No team has ever failed to reach their conference tournament's semifinal and gone on to win the national championship.
 
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When it comes to picking national champions, don't go out on a limb. Just gotta pick the best team. So yeah, give me Arizona.
 
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WarEagle2727 said:
Have you seen that ankle?
Click to expand...

No. But, heard Lloyd saying Kriisa could very well play this week. I expect him back at some point during the tournament.

And truthfully, Arizona has plenty of skilled passers on the team. Dalen Terry honestly might be a better facilitator than Kriisa. Kier and Larsson can fill in the void in the meantime. They're no slouches.
 
dukedevilz said:
No. But, heard Lloyd saying Kriisa could very well play this week. I expect him back at some point during the tournament.

And truthfully, Arizona has plenty of skilled passers on the team. Dalen Terry honestly might be a better facilitator than Kriisa. Kier and Larsson can fill in the void in the meantime. They're no slouches.
Click to expand...
I REALLY don't see how he could play this week unless the picture I saw was doctored lol
 
WarEagle2727 said:
I REALLY don't see how he could play this week unless the picture I saw was doctored lol
Click to expand...

Who knows? Maybe Lloyd wants the other teams to waste more time game planning for Kriisa? Either way, I think they'll be fine this week without him. They did just beat a very talented UCLA team w/o Kriisa in the lineup.
 
dukedevilz said:
Who knows? Maybe Lloyd wants the other teams to waste more time game planning for Kriisa? Either way, I think they'll be fine this week without him. They did just beat a very talented UCLA team w/o Kriisa in the lineup.
Click to expand...
Ya I’d keep him out until the Sweet 16. That would be close to 2 full weeks.
 
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dukedevilz said:
Who knows? Maybe Lloyd wants the other teams to waste more time game planning for Kriisa? Either way, I think they'll be fine this week without him. They did just beat a very talented UCLA team w/o Kriisa in the lineup.
Click to expand...
Also I have backed off my “Gonzaga will be fine against Arizona” take. To be honest, I don’t love Gonzaga’s chances this year.
 
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ravenman10 said:
16 of the last 19 champs have been in the top 6 of kenpom rankings.

Gonzaga
Arizona
Kentucky
Baylor
Houston
Kansas

there is your championship group
Click to expand...
Is that the "Super six"?
 
della said:
Is that the "Super six"?
Click to expand...
Yes. Carolina and UCONN were the outliers.
In the last 10 years, it’s been #1 or #2 6 times.
I’d say kenpom gets it right more than he gets it wrong. At the top at least.
5 of 6 were the #2 team so if I were Arizona I’d feel pretty good about my chances.
 
dukedevilz said:
No. But, heard Lloyd saying Kriisa could very well play this week. I expect him back at some point during the tournament.

And truthfully, Arizona has plenty of skilled passers on the team. Dalen Terry honestly might be a better facilitator than Kriisa. Kier and Larsson can fill in the void in the meantime. They're no slouches.
Click to expand...


<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/FPpfcV5gXeT0A" width="480" height="360" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="">via GIPHY</a></p>
 
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Boilermaker03 said:
I have 5 brackets. One is a homer pick (because I couldn't live with myself if I didn't do at least one). Here are my championship picks for each:

Purdue (homer)
UCLA
Texas Tech
Baylor
Kentucky

Originally I had Kansas winning one and Arizona winning another, but an interesting stat was brought up that had me rethink things. Of the last 6 NCAA champs, none won their conference tournament.

What do you have?
Click to expand...

You last part of why Zona and Kansas are not winners got me researching. Nova did win their conference tournament the year they won the title in 2018. They did not win their conference regular season title that year. You have to go back to 2010 with Duke as the last time a team won both their conference championships and then the national title. Before that it was Kansas in 2008. So yeah based on that you can probably eliminate Kansas and Arizona from winning it all if history tells us anything.
 
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I will say this. If Texas Tech's offense shows up they can, and will, beat every team in the field. The problem with this team is that's a 50/50 proposition at best. We just don't have the shooters.
 
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The last 7/9 champions have been rated no lower than 9 in offensive efficiency

the last 8/9 were top 25 in defensive efficiency.
If this holds true that would mean take Kansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee of the list.
That leaves Zags, Zona, Baylor, Houston

case could be made for UCLA at 8 overall and top 15 in both O & D
 
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della said:
Tennessee
Gonzaga
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Click to expand...
denzel-training-day.gif


I've got:

Gonzaga
Arizona
Kentucky
Kansas

Probably only get one of those correct.
 
ravenman10 said:
The last 7/9 champions have been rated no lower than 9 in offensive efficiency

the last 8/9 were top 25 in defensive efficiency.
If this holds true that would mean take Kansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee of the list.
That leaves Zags, Zona, Baylor, Houston

case could be made for UCLA at 8 overall and top 15 in both O & D
Click to expand...
Insert UCLA for Baylor because of the no-conf. semifinal rule.
 
ravenman10 said:
The last 7/9 champions have been rated no lower than 9 in offensive efficiency

the last 8/9 were top 25 in defensive efficiency.
If this holds true that would mean take Kansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee of the list.
That leaves Zags, Zona, Baylor, Houston

case could be made for UCLA at 8 overall and top 15 in both O & D
Click to expand...

One thing to always remember about the Kenpom rankings though when looking at trends with past champions is it’s a snapshot after the tournament not going into it. So teams like UK and KU who are just outside that top 20 D Kenpom could easily end up top 20, maybe even top 15 by the end of the tournament if they play well suddenly.
 
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ravenman10 said:
The last 7/9 champions have been rated no lower than 9 in offensive efficiency

the last 8/9 were top 25 in defensive efficiency.
If this holds true that would mean take Kansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee of the list.
That leaves Zags, Zona, Baylor, Houston

case could be made for UCLA at 8 overall and top 15 in both O & D
Click to expand...

The defensive efficiency stat is based on post-tourney numbers.

The top 6 thing probably is too.

Obviously winning 6 games vs good to great teams has a major impact on the numbers.
 
Good point. That does open it up to some of those fringe teams. Still, I’d probably cap it at the top 11 as it currently sits. Don’t see a path for the others to make drastic jumps.
 
ravenman10 said:
Good point. That does open it up to some of those fringe teams. Still, I’d probably cap it at the top 11 as it currently sits. Don’t see a path for the others to make drastic jumps.
Click to expand...
You'd be surprised how much even a few games can impact Kenpom numbers. I'm pretty sure that Iowa's defensive efficiency improved by almost 20 after beating Purdue yesterday.
 
ravenman10 said:
16 of the last 19 champs have been in the top 6 of kenpom rankings.

Gonzaga
Arizona
Kentucky
Baylor
Houston
Kansas

there is your championship group
Click to expand...
I believe we moved to 7th in Kenpom rankings with the win today.
 
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