Which 8/9 seeds would you want to avoid?

[GE Nole]

Seems like every year there's one team on the 8/9 line that is capable of upsetting multiple 1 seeds on a short turnaround. Last year there were two 9 seeds that won (though K-State beat a 16 seed...) and Seton Hall nearly took down Kansas as well.

Looking at bracketmatrix, here are the current 8/9 seeds:
8 Baylor
8 Auburn
8 Ole Miss
8 Wofford
9 St. Johns
9 Syracuse
9 Oklahoma
9 TCU

Any team on that list standout as a "hmm, wouldn't want to see them if I were a 1 seed"? I'll say that Cuse jumps out to me. Tyus Battle can get crazy hot and the 2-3 zone might be tricky if you aren't used to prepping for it.

 

[RyanJamesIII]

I would agree with Cuse. They beat us once already and we don't shoot it well from the outside against their zone.

 

[bignish]

I don't think any of these 8 or 9 seeds can beat Duke, UVA, UK or the Zags if we're being perfectly honest. All 4 1 seeds this year are historically great teams this century according to the KenPom database.

The earliest "upset" I can see of a 1 seed if a potential matchup with Texas Tech, KU, KState or LSU if any of those teams land on the 4 line and advance to a Sweet 16.

 

[kyjeff1]

Kansas!

Too soon?

 

[bignish]

Kansas!

Too soon?

I feel like you meant that to be an insult but it doesn't make any sense and the timing is especially poor after KU beat up on KState last night.

 

[kyjeff1]

I feel like you meant that to be an insult but it doesn't make any sense and the timing is especially poor after KU beat up on KState last night.

Wow, it was a joke. You did see the beatdown they took on Saturday right?

Again, it was a joke.

 

[dukedevilz]

The 8/9 seeds on that list actually look fairly tame in comparison to most years. Kansas State and FSU both advanced to the Elite 8 last year. Wisconsin took down Nova, the defending champs, in 2017. Arkansas took UNC down to the wire in the same year.

I would probably agree with the above posters and say Syracuse would be the toughest matchup. Cuse is long (starting 5 is 6'5, 6'6, 6'6, 6'8, 7'2) and that zone can be tough to carve through if you've never seen it before. Crazy to think Syracuse's last two NCAA Tournaments they were a 10 seed and an 11 seed... and they won 7 games. Seeing them on TV and playing them in person are two completely different things.

Wofford might be an interesting matchup, too. They're #2 in the country in 3-point shooting percentage. Fletcher Magee is a big-time scorer and Cam Jackson can hold his own in the paint... Honestly, I'm just hoping some of those 7 seeds don't fall too much. Villanova, Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Washington are all really, really good 7 seeds, IMO. I would be much more concerned about facing one of those four schools.

 

[LetsGoDuke301]

Syracuse and St Johns both have experience against Duke this year. If you look at the final score to the Duke vs St Johns game, you'll probably laugh. But Duke went nuts for a stretch of that game after St Johns was hanging with them and even beating them midway through the first half. That really took their confidence away. They play a style that could at least give Duke a run for their money.

Syracuse always has a chance. Boeheim always has his guys ready to go up against Duke. It would obviously be beneficial for Duke to be at full strength, but doubt they get put in the same bracket regardless.

 

[JimboBBN]

I don't think any of these 8 or 9 seeds can beat Duke, UVA, UK or the Zags if we're being perfectly honest. All 4 1 seeds this year are historically great teams this century according to the KenPom database.

The earliest "upset" I can see of a 1 seed if a potential matchup with Texas Tech, KU, KState or LSU if any of those teams land on the 4 line and advance to a Sweet 16.

You and I were discussing this yesterday and you mentioned Duke, UVA, and the Zags are all historically great according to KenPom. Is UK in there now too?

 

[Quavarius]

St. John’s

 

[BasketBallJunkie-UK]

I could see Auburn giving UVA a go if they're hitting 3's.

 

[bignish]

You and I were discussing this yesterday and you mentioned Duke, UVA, and the Zags are all historically great according to KenPom. Is UK in there now too?

UK is up in the air but I think based on recent trends, they're looking like they could be Cal's 3rd or 4th best team and I certainly don't see them losing before the Sweet 16.

They're a team that you're going to have to outplay since they're so balanced with shooting, rebounding and dominant post play from PJ.

I still think I'd favor Duke, UVA and the Zags by 4 or 5 points over UK on a neutral court though. Maybe Duke by more like 8 since I think we just match up really well...

 

[bignish]

I could see Auburn giving UVA a go if they're hitting 3's.

UVA's perimeter defense is elite and Auburn has no answer for Guy, Jerome or Hunter. Blowout city for the Hoos.

 

[JimboBBN]

UK is up in the air but I think based on recent trends, they're looking like they could be Cal's 3rd or 4th best team and I certainly don't see them losing before the Sweet 16.

They're a team that you're going to have to outplay since they're so balanced with shooting, rebounding and dominant post play from PJ.

I still think I'd favor Duke, UVA and the Zags by 4 or 5 points over UK on a neutral court though. Maybe Duke by more like 8 since I think we just match up really well...

I think 4th at worst. Behind 2012 and 2015 for sure, MAYBE 2017. I'll take this team over John Wall's team, though.

 

[oldsports_]

8/9? I pick 8

 

[BasketBallJunkie-UK]

UVA's perimeter defense is elite and Auburn has no answer for Guy, Jerome or Hunter. Blowout city for the Hoos.

Not if they're hitting 3's. They jack them up from anywhere lol. A shooter's chance, which I agree that it's not likely.

 

[BasketBallJunkie-UK]

8/9? I pick 8

Put me in for '/'

 

[tw3301]

I don't think any of these 8 or 9 seeds can beat Duke, UVA, UK or the Zags if we're being perfectly honest. All 4 1 seeds this year are historically great teams this century according to the KenPom database.

The earliest "upset" I can see of a 1 seed if a potential matchup with Texas Tech, KU, KState or LSU if any of those teams land on the 4 line and advance to a Sweet 16.

except one already did.

I don't want any part of Syracuse or Auburn in the tournament. Auburn has obviously fallen way way off (i think they had an injury or 2?) but when their threes are falling they're dangerous AF. Syracuse always plays well against Duke and their zone ****s with teams in the tournament.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

St. Johns. Most firepower of anyone on that list and they have a bona fide superstar who can win a game on his own.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

I don't think any of these 8 or 9 seeds can beat Duke,

Think you meant to say:

I don't think Syracuse can beat Duke a 3rd time this year.

 

[tw3301]

Think you meant to say:

I don't think Syracuse can beat Duke a 3rd time this year.

third? Duke just beat Syracuse on the road Saturday.

 

[GE Nole]

The 8/9 seeds on that list actually look fairly tame in comparison to most years. Kansas State and FSU both advanced to the Elite 8 last year. Wisconsin took down Nova, the defending champs, in 2017. Arkansas took UNC down to the wire in the same year.

I would probably agree with the above posters and say Syracuse would be the toughest matchup. Cuse is long (starting 5 is 6'5, 6'6, 6'6, 6'8, 7'2) and that zone can be tough to carve through if you've never seen it before. Crazy to think Syracuse's last two NCAA Tournaments they were a 10 seed and an 11 seed... and they won 7 games. Seeing them on TV and playing them in person are two completely different things.

Wofford might be an interesting matchup, too. They're #2 in the country in 3-point shooting percentage. Fletcher Magee is a big-time scorer and Cam Jackson can hold his own in the paint... Honestly, I'm just hoping some of those 7 seeds don't fall too much. Villanova, Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Washington are all really, really good 7 seeds, IMO. I would be much more concerned about facing one of those four schools.

This is a really good post. But to your first point, did anyone outside of Tallahassee believe that FSU was a strong 9 seed last year. FSU fans knew we had a team built for a run because we had played most of the year with injuries and got healthy late, and also knew that Kabengele was really starting to come on. But I seem to recall most national folks not even giving FSU much of a chance to beat Mizzou, and in fact the Tigers were the "trendy pick" to upset a 1.

Are Syracuse and Baylor really that much "weaker" than FSU or K-State last year going into the dance?

I will say the 2017 Wisconsin team was clearly a concerning 8/9.

 

[dukedevilz]

This is a really good post. But to your first point, did anyone outside of Tallahassee believe that FSU was a strong 9 seed last year. FSU fans knew we had a team built for a run because we had played most of the year with injuries and got healthy late, and also knew that Kabengele was really starting to come on. But I seem to recall most national folks not even giving FSU much of a chance to beat Mizzou, and in fact the Tigers were the "trendy pick" to upset a 1.

Are Syracuse and Baylor really that much "weaker" than FSU or K-State last year going into the dance?

I will say the 2017 Wisconsin team was clearly a concerning 8/9.

You're probably right in that regard - easier to see things in hindsight. FSU did start out the 2018 year really hot, though. Crushed Florida on the road, played Duke down to the last minute, beat UNC. I guess I felt like they were at least talented enough to win some games, especially with all that length. From what I recall, 538 sports gave FSU a 60% chance to beat Mizzou. Xavier never seemed like a dynamite #1 seed to begin with, so I liked FSU's chances.

But yes, probably not as scary on paper as say Wisconsin in 2017 or Kentucky in 2014. Syracuse is probably on par or close to K-State or FSU from a year ago. I think Gonzaga would struggle a bit against them.

 

[jhmossy]

None because that probably means we won our 1st round game.

 

[bignish]

I think 4th at worst. Behind 2012 and 2015 for sure, MAYBE 2017. I'll take this team over John Wall's team, though.

YES! Your fanbase overrates that 2010 team like no other just because it was Cal's 1st squad and it had Wall and Cousins on it.

That team was an AWFUL shooting squad. I like the balance on this team better.

I think I like the 2017 team better than this one though now that I think about it because guards win in March and Fox by the end of the season was your 3rd best PG after freshman Wall and sophomore Ulis.

 

[wrbchWolfPack81]

Man, seeing Syracuse and Auburn ahead of NC State pisses me off. We ran both of them off the court. A bunch of double digit loss teams too which make little to no sense at all.

 

[jhmossy]

Man, seeing Syracuse and Auburn ahead of NC State pisses me off. We ran both of them off the court. A bunch of double digit loss teams too which make little to no sense at all.

Probably has something to do with SOS

 

[dukedevilz]

Man, seeing Syracuse and Auburn ahead of NC State pisses me off. We ran both of them off the court. A bunch of double digit loss teams too which make little to no sense at all.

I like you guys, I do. I think you're good enough to win a game or two in the tourney. But I'd say take what you can at this point. State is 1-7 in Quad 1 Games.

 

[wrbchWolfPack81]

Probably has something to do with SOS

Duke, UVA, VaTech, UNC, Louisville, Syracuse, and FSU seems significant to me. Not many of those teams ahead of us face such a gauntlet.

 

[wrbchWolfPack81]

I like you guys, I do. I think you're good enough to win a game or two in the tourney. But I'd say take what you can at this point. State is 1-7 in Quad 1 Games.

Getting screwed on the road at Wisconsin didn’t help

 

[jhmossy]

Duke, UVA, VaTech, UNC, Louisville, Syracuse, and FSU seems significant to me. Not many of those teams ahead of us face such a gauntlet.

Your SOS and NCSOS are still weaker than those for Syracuse and Auburn (based on Kenpom numbers). Your NCSOS was abysmal. Conference SOS will always be pretty tough since you play in the ACC. Your record vs. Quad 1 games is limiting your seed imo.

 

[dukedevilz]

Getting screwed on the road at Wisconsin didn’t help

The charge in the final minute that Brad Davison drew was very questionable. So I'll give you that. Beat FSU on Saturday and you'll be in a much better situation.

 

[wrbchWolfPack81]

Your SOS and NCSOS are still weaker than those for Syracuse and Auburn (based on Kenpom numbers). Your NCSOS was abysmal. Conference SOS will always be pretty tough since you play in the ACC. Your record vs. Quad 1 games is limiting your seed imo.

I got you. I’m just looking at the weakest tourney field I’ve ever seen and think we are getting screwed.

 

[wrbchWolfPack81]

The charge in the final minute that Brad Davison drew was very questionable. So I'll give you that. Beat FSU on Saturday and you'll be in a much better situation.

Dude got like six or seven charge calls in the game. It was comical

 

[WeAreDePaul]

third? Duke just beat Syracuse on the road Saturday.

I went to DePaul. I don't math so good.

 

[dukedevilz]

I got you. I’m just looking at the weakest tourney field I’ve ever seen and think we are getting screwed.

Dude got like six or seven charge calls in the game. It was comical

It was a tough loss, no question. I don't remember all of the minute details, but I felt like State outplayed Wisconsin for most of the game. If you guys play your A game I think you'll do well in the tournament, with the potential of making the Sweet 16.

 

[olsonab]

Man, seeing Syracuse and Auburn ahead of NC State pisses me off. We ran both of them off the court. A bunch of double digit loss teams too which make little to no sense at all.

We are nowhere near where we should be due to injuries, suspensions, ect, but I dont think losing by 7 points AT NC State is that much of "running someone off the court"....

Seemed like a 6-9 point game most of the way after the terrible start by us, which is pretty common practice for us on the road.

 

[wrbchWolfPack81]

We are nowhere near where we should be due to injuries, suspensions, ect, but I dont think losing by 7 points AT NC State is that much of "running someone off the court"....

Seemed like a 6-9 point game most of the way after the terrible start by us, which is pretty common practice for us on the road.

I was more referring to Syracuse getting run off the floor but we beat you guys when you were ranked like 12 or 15 which should mean something.

 

[kyjeff1]

YES! Your fanbase overrates that 2010 team like no other just because it was Cal's 1st squad and it had Wall and Cousins on it.

That team was an AWFUL shooting squad. I like the balance on this team better.

I think I like the 2017 team better than this one though now that I think about it because guards win in March and Fox by the end of the season was your 3rd best PG after freshman Wall and sophomore Ulis.

But wait. We overrated the 2010 Wall team because they couldn't shoot?

This year's Duke team is even worse from the outside, but you would favor them by 8 over this UK team, that you say is > 2010 (see quoted post below).

BTW, that 2010 team had more than just Wall and Boogie. It had Patrick Patterson, Bledsoe, Darius Miller, DeAndre Liggins, Daniel Orton and Josh Harrellson. That roster was stacked and had more star power than this 2019 team by a mile.

Just like this Duke team, there were games where UK shot lights out, but then there were games where they went 2-25 (elite 8 against WVa). That team isn't being overrated, they just severely underachieved.

UK is up in the air but I think based on recent trends, they're looking like they could be Cal's 3rd or 4th best team and I certainly don't see them losing before the Sweet 16.

They're a team that you're going to have to outplay since they're so balanced with shooting, rebounding and dominant post play from PJ.

I still think I'd favor Duke, UVA and the Zags by 4 or 5 points over UK on a neutral court though. Maybe Duke by more like 8 since I think we just match up really well...

 

[kyjeff1]

Man, seeing Syracuse and Auburn ahead of NC State pisses me off. We ran both of them off the court. A bunch of double digit loss teams too which make little to no sense at all.

Well, you also had a game where you scored a total of 24 points, so there's that.