UK Fans, Realistic Expectations for Decade 2 of Cal?

[bignish]

I'm curious to see what UK fans expect in the next decade with Calipari. They've been the best tournament program in his first 10 years but I think there's a lot of luck associated with that.

2010: Elite 8 as a 1 Seed: Perform
2011: Final 4 as a 4 Seed: Overperform, should've lost to Princeton in 1st Round or Ohio State in Sweet 16
2012: National Champs as Overall 1 Seed: Overperform
2013: NIT
2014: Championship Game as a 8 Seed: Overperform, could've lost to Wichita State in 2nd Round, Michigan in Elite 8 or Wisconsin in Final 4, insanely lucky
2015: Final 4 as Overall 1 Seed: Perform
2016: 2nd Round as a 4 Seed: Underperform
2017: Elite 8 as a 2 Seed: Overperform
2018: Sweet 16 as a 5 Seed: Overperform
2019: Elite 8 as a 2 Seed: Overperform

Kentucky has vastly overperformed in the NCAAT relative to its resume and seeding by the committee this decade and I don't think that's sustainable.

UK has been seeded below the 2 Line five out of the last 10 years but has still made 4 Final 4s, 7 Elite 8s and 8 Sweet 16s out of 9 tournament appearances; that's ludicrous.

A team which has UK's profile entering the tournament should have just 2 Final 4s, 4 Elite 8s and 6 Sweet 16s which is what I would expect for the Cats from 2020-2029.

Duke and UVA have 4 1 Seeds each for instance and only have 3 Final 4s combined this decade.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

10 years is a long ways out. I didn't expect him to have the success he's had over the past 10. 7 Elite 8's, 4 Final fours, 2 Championship games and a title, plus all the Brand building, NBA players, Recruiting, etc.

Calipari and UK just works.

Great thread btw, and thanks for putting this much thought into it.

 

[RR30]

I bet he is gone long before 2029.
UK has "vastly over performed" in terms of seeding, but if you look at the usual makeup of teams it's because they struggle in the regular season with all the turnover and start to fire on all cylinders come tournament time. They have been under seeded multiple times, some cases by multiple lines which skew it too. I don't know why you think an elite 8 as a 2 seed is over performing anyway. That is playing to your seed. If anything both in 2017 and 2019 you can make a case UK had a legit case to win the title (at least in the former, don't really believe the latter). I don't understand how you think a team with UK's profile should only have 2 final fours anyway, when they were the #1 overall seed twice and a one seed one other time. They were a 2 seed twice. If you are comparing them to Duke and UVA and saying they are under performing it's the opposite. Duke and UVA (before this year) have been disappointments in March.

 

[oldsports_]

1 final 4 and I'm good

 

[pisgah101]

He’ll never win a title again

 

[Random UK Fan]

Double all the previous accomplishments and there you go.

 

[Wildcat-in-STL]

For the next 10 years I expect 1 title , 2-3 final fours... average of 29-30 wins . Anything less is a major disappointment

 

[Big_Blue79]

I'm curious to see what UK fans expect in the next decade with Calipari. They've been the best tournament program in his first 10 years but I think there's a lot of luck associated with that.

2010: Elite 8 as a 1 Seed: Perform
2011: Final 4 as a 4 Seed: Overperform, should've lost to Princeton in 1st Round or Ohio State in Sweet 16
2012: National Champs as Overall 1 Seed: Overperform
2013: NIT
2014: Championship Game as a 8 Seed: Overperform, could've lost to Wichita State in 2nd Round, Michigan in Elite 8 or Wisconsin in Final 4, insanely lucky
2015: Final 4 as Overall 1 Seed: Perform
2016: 2nd Round as a 4 Seed: Underperform
2017: Elite 8 as a 2 Seed: Overperform
2018: Sweet 16 as a 5 Seed: Overperform
2019: Elite 8 as a 2 Seed: Overperform

Kentucky has vastly overperformed in the NCAAT relative to its resume and seeding by the committee this decade and I don't think that's sustainable.

UK has been seeded below the 2 Line five out of the last 10 years but has still made 4 Final 4s, 7 Elite 8s and 8 Sweet 16s out of 9 tournament appearances; that's ludicrous.

A team which has UK's profile entering the tournament should have just 2 Final 4s, 4 Elite 8s and 6 Sweet 16s which is what I would expect for the Cats from 2020-2029.

Duke and UVA have 4 1 Seeds each for instance and only have 3 Final 4s combined this decade.

Appreciate the work, but you left out the other side of the luck equation (didn't you do similarly when saying that K should have had like 8 more FFs?). Aside from 2014, UK's record in coin-flip games hasn't been that great. How do you argue that UK "should've lost to Princeton" but not acknowledge that by the same token UK should have beaten UNC in 2017 or UConn in 2011 or KSU last year or Auburn this year or Wisconsin in 2015 or Indiana in 2016 or even UConn in 2014?

You've also left out the magnitude element. Going to the finals as an 8-seed is a vast overperformance, sure, but going to the Elite 8 as a 2 seed is far less of an overperformance issue.

Finally you state that UK "vastly overperformed in the NCAAT relative to its resume and seeding," but provide zero analysis of its resume (not even a straight up KenPom ranking) and only rely on seeding. And you make no effort to analyze the strength of their opponents or matchups (2015 Wisconsin was a terrible matchup, but 2018 KSU was a good one).

Look, you might be right, but this analysis is pretty incomplete. It's about on par with that site that had Steve Fisher as the greatest NCAA Tournament coach of all-time based on his 1989 interim coaching run and the Fab Five.

 

[Blue_White_KY]

An elite 8 as a 2 is “performing” not overperforming
National champion as an overall 1 seed is “performing” not overperforming.

When we were some of those lower seeds, especially that 8 seed, we were under seeded by 2-3 lines. However, when a team has so many young players, they will continue to improve the longer they play and that’s what happened with those teams. Young kids continued toward their potential bypassing other players/teams who may have or weren’t as close to their potential as our teams got.

Disregard the common sense and just go with the common nonsense of Cal doesn’t coach, he just recruits. The fact is, Cal is a better coach than everyone else. Especially with 1 and dones.

I do not believe Cal will win another title at UK unless something changes. Either he needs to change or the OAD rule. I don’t think he would have won the title in 2012 without the NBA lockout forcing Terrance Jones to come back I believe Doron Lamb came back because of it also. Can’t remember off the top of my head how high he was projected after his first freshmen year. Without those 2, we don’t win the title. JMO.

 

[Hank_]

In the next decade, I expect 2 titles. One to make up for the one he should have won in 2015, and another just because.

By my count, since John has been at UK, he’s had 4 or 5 teams that were good enough to win (2010, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019). On top of that, he had one that had no business winning, but almost pulled it off (2014).

K retires this decade, so recruiting gets easier too.

 

[Connecticut Wildcat]

I would be disappointed if he doesn’t win another title and get to at least 3 more final fours.

I actually think the end of the one and done era will help Cal.

 

[HRTheCard]

I would be disappointed if he doesn’t win another title and get to at least 3 more final fours.

I actually think the end of the one and done era will help Cal.

It’s not the end...especially if you aren’t getting top 5 recruits because those are the kids who are skipping college. Everyone else 6-whatever that have excellent freshman years and potential will still be OAD

 

[IUfanBorden]

I would be disappointed if he doesn’t win another title and get to at least 3 more final fours.

I actually think the end of the one and done era will help Cal.

Its not ending. There will still be OAD's. Probably more; 4-5 kids declaring out of HS, could, and probably will push fringe OAD's, to the draft. I don't the rule change, changes things much at all.

 

[olsonab]

Kentucky won’t go anywhere and they never will. Too much support, passion, tradition, commitment, etc.

Death penalties and strong NCAA sanctions that would’ve destroyed programs for a decade only curtailed them momentarily.

 

[ExitFlagger]

How is playing to seed overperforming?

 

[Kevin Bryan]

10 titles or bust. SmokinSmile

 

[shockey4064]

I don’t think you know what overperform means, OP. But I guess your idea of it would be slanted being a Duke fan.

 

[bignish]

I don't know why you think an elite 8 as a 2 seed is over performing anyway. That is playing to your seed. If anything both in 2017 and 2019 you can make a case UK had a legit case to win the title (at least in the former, don't really believe the latter). I don't understand how you think a team with UK's profile should only have 2 final fours anyway, when they were the #1 overall seed twice and a one seed one other time. They were a 2 seed twice. If you are comparing them to Duke and UVA and saying they are under performing it's the opposite. Duke and UVA (before this year) have been disappointments in March.

Here's where I personally disagree; expecting a 1 or 2 Seed to play exactly up to seeding is an unfair standard in my opinion because of the narrow differences between a 1 and 2 Seed vs a 3 and 4 Seed (all KenPom Top 20 teams usually) and how difficult winning Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games are.

For 1 Seeds:
Final 4: Overperform
Elite 8: Perform
Sweet 16 or worse: Underperform

For 2 Seeds:
Elite 8: Overperform
Sweet 16: Perform
2nd Round or worse: Underperform

Only one 1 Seed made the Final 4 this year.

If you gave Team X 10 Number 1 Seeds over the next 10 years, the only way for that team to overperform is to make 10 Title games or 4 Title Game losses, 3 Championships and 3 Elite 8s.

That's an impossibly high standard to be held to in a single elimination tournament.

 

[bignish]

I don’t think you know what overperform means, OP. But I guess your idea of it would be slanted being a Duke fan.

See my analysis above. 1 and 2 seeds are being victimized for their own regular season success so the expectations get set too high than what is reasonably expected given its a single elimination tournament and the differences between the top 4 seed lines are often narrow each year.

 

[bignish]

How is playing to seed overperforming?

Unfair standard to be held to, fans expect too much.

UNC has four 1 Seeds and two 2 Seeds the last 10 years too and only has 1 Title, 1 other Finals appearance and 2 other Elite 8s to show for it.

 

[shockey4064]

See my analysis above. 1 and 2 seeds are being victimized for their own regular season success so the expectations get set too high than what is reasonably expected given its a single elimination tournament and the differences between the top 4 seed lines are often narrow each year.

So you’re being totally arbitrary, basically, in order to flame and make a ridiculous point.

By expected number of wins by seed, he’s underperformed 3 times (2010, 2015, 2016), performed to seed 3 times (2012, 2017, 2019), and overperformed 3 times (2011, 2014, 2018). Seems perfectly sustainable to me

 

[ExitFlagger]

Unfair standard to be held to, fans expect too much.

UNC has four 1 Seeds and two 2 Seeds the last 10 years too and only has 1 Title, 1 other Finals appearance and 2 other Elite 8s to show for it.

Still not sure how an elite 8 as a 1 or 2 is "over" performing. It also largely depends on competition. I think anyone would agree that they underperformed by losing to 9 seed K-State w/out their best player and
Auburn w/out their best player.

And, by your standard, why is 2016 underperforming?

 

[bignish]

Still not sure how an elite 8 as a 1 or 2 is "over" performing. It also largely depends on competition. I think anyone would agree that they underperformed by losing to 9 seed K-State w/out their best player and
Auburn w/out their best player.

And, by your standard, why is 2016 underperforming?

Elite 8 is overperforming if you're a 2 seed but just Perform is you're a 1.

2016 should've made at least the Sweet 16.

 

[JC for 3]

2 more titles and I'm good.

 

[ExitFlagger]

2016 should've made at least the Sweet 16.

That's not consistent with the standards you're using for other years.

 

[UL_1986]

Lol at the multiple titles predictions. Homie getting phased out.

 

[JC for 3]

Lol at the multiple titles predictions. Homie getting phased out.

Your cup of wishful thinking runneth over.

 

[dukedevilz]

Can we just get one Duke/Kentucky national title game in next decade? This board might explode if that happens.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Can we just get one Duke/Kentucky national title game in next decade? This board might explode if that happens.

It's been too long. Most here wasn't alive in '78, and I was only 3.

Is it true, UNC and Duke has never played in the tournament or is just the Championship?

 

[829305]

One title in a decade at the premiere basketball school? Honestly, it's kind of underwhelming. I mean, Roy has 3 in a decade and a half at Carolina.

 

[829305]

Is it true, UNC and Duke has never played in the tournament or is just the Championship?

Never met in the tournament.

 

[crazyqx83]

I'm curious to see what UK fans expect in the next decade with Calipari. They've been the best tournament program in his first 10 years but I think there's a lot of luck associated with that.

2010: Elite 8 as a 1 Seed: Perform
2011: Final 4 as a 4 Seed: Overperform, should've lost to Princeton in 1st Round or Ohio State in Sweet 16
2012: National Champs as Overall 1 Seed: Overperform
2013: NIT
2014: Championship Game as a 8 Seed: Overperform, could've lost to Wichita State in 2nd Round, Michigan in Elite 8 or Wisconsin in Final 4, insanely lucky
2015: Final 4 as Overall 1 Seed: Perform
2016: 2nd Round as a 4 Seed: Underperform
2017: Elite 8 as a 2 Seed: Overperform
2018: Sweet 16 as a 5 Seed: Overperform
2019: Elite 8 as a 2 Seed: Overperform

Kentucky has vastly overperformed in the NCAAT relative to its resume and seeding by the committee this decade and I don't think that's sustainable.

UK has been seeded below the 2 Line five out of the last 10 years but has still made 4 Final 4s, 7 Elite 8s and 8 Sweet 16s out of 9 tournament appearances; that's ludicrous.

A team which has UK's profile entering the tournament should have just 2 Final 4s, 4 Elite 8s and 6 Sweet 16s which is what I would expect for the Cats from 2020-2029.

Duke and UVA have 4 1 Seeds each for instance and only have 3 Final 4s combined this decade.

This is quite possibly the dumbest post in the history of this board. The only season they overperformed was 2014 and the only season they underperformed was 2010 and arguably 2015.

How anyone could actually post the 2012 team overperformed is the epitome of delusion and idiocy. No matter what the seed line says, that was the best team of the last decade.

 

[crazyqx83]

Elite 8 is overperforming if you're a 2 seed but just Perform is you're a 1.

2016 should've made at least the Sweet 16.

Like I said... Stupid ass logic. So it's overperforming to make a sweet 16 as a 5 in 2018 but underforming to lose in the second round as a 4 (which is essentially the same seeding as a 5) in 2016?

Your post makes 0 sense. Get lost.

 

[bignish]

Like I said... Stupid ass logic. So it's overperforming to make a sweet 16 as a 5 in 2018 but underforming to lose in the second round as a 4 (which is essentially the same seeding as a 5) in 2016?

Your post makes 0 sense. Get lost.

Top 4 seeds should make the Sweet 16.

Crazyq gonna Crazyq.

 

[crazyqx83]

Top 4 seeds should make the Sweet 16.

Crazyq gonna Crazyq.

But a #2 shouldn't make the elite 8? You're a tool face.

 

[bkingUK]

Kentucky has won at least one national championship the majority of the past 7 decades... so I’ll go with a national championship, four final fours and three elite 8’s.

 

[829305]

Kentucky has won at least one national championship the majority of the past 7 decades... so I’ll go with a national championship, four final fours and three elite 8’s.

Meh. All them white boys did a lot of work. About half to be exact, in the 40s and 50s.

 

[bkingUK]

Meh. All them white boys did a lot of work. About half to be exact, in the 40s and 50s.

Racism was the new black back then, bro

 

[ThroughBlue]

Hopefully it’s more like the first half of the last decade

 

[CB3UK]

I expect another title or two.