I don’t dispute that at all. Matchups absolutely matter, but in my opinion, the bad matchup gives a team the chance to beat a team that better than them that 2 times out out of 10 that they pull it off. Doesn’t mean over all they are a better team. If Ky and Oakland played 10 times last year, I think Ky wins 8 or 9. You just have those nights that everything lines up correctly for the upset. Bad matchup, your team has a bad shooting night, the other team shoots is well above their average, etc. what I do put a lot of stock in is KenPom. I know a lot of people think it’s way overblown, and maybe not accurate but to me, there is no bias and no human opinion. It’s not perfect without everyone playing the exact same schedule, but Vegas uses it regularly to set opening lines. And Vegas’s opinion means more to me than the opinion of biased fans. Didn’t mean that to get so long but anyway, I agree, matchups are very important, however losing a game to a team that was a bad matchup doesn’t mean that team is better. Duke is better than Clemson, Ky is better than Arkansas.