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The math behind Hack-A-Dok

Mgkcbb

Well-Known Member
Apr 2, 2016
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Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike, who is ultra talented and by every standard a phenomenal player, is shooting 37% on FTs this season.

Kansas offense is 13th in the nation with an adjusted Ortg of 118.7.

In conference games alone, theyre scoring 1.10 point per possession, which is good for fourth in the Big12 in conference play.

In other words, theyre a very strong offensive team with multiple shooters and creators and Dokes highly efficient post scoring.

In tight games in the 2nd half, the math actually dictates just sending Dok to the line rather than try to defend them.


Kansas offense scores 1.1 pounts per possession.

Now lets assume for 5 straight possessions you send Dok to the line. Lets also assume theyre in the double bonus so he gets 2 free throws every time hes fouled. Lets then also assume he hits 40% of his free throws rather than his normal 37%.

That comes out to 4 points in 5 (2 fts each possessions for 10 total free throw attempts)possessions. Less than a point per possession as opposed to Kansas typical 1.10 points per possession.
 
Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike, who is ultra talented and by every standard a phenomenal player, is shooting 37% on FTs this season.

Kansas offense is 13th in the nation with an adjusted Ortg of 118.7.

In conference games alone, theyre scoring 1.10 point per possession, which is good for fourth in the Big12 in conference play.

In other words, theyre a very strong offensive team with multiple shooters and creators and Dokes highly efficient post scoring.

In tight games in the 2nd half, the math actually dictates just sending Dok to the line rather than try to defend them.


Kansas offense scores 1.1 pounts per possession.

Now lets assume for 5 straight possessions you send Dok to the line. Lets also assume theyre in the double bonus so he gets 2 free throws every time hes fouled. Lets then also assume he hits 40% of his free throws rather than his normal 37%.

That comes out to 4 points in 5 (2 fts each possessions for 10 total free throw attempts)possessions. Less than a point per possession as opposed to Kansas typical 1.10 points per possession.
Who eats the five fouls? Did you figure that into your algorithm?
 
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You should have accepted the bet I made on Purdue making it to the Elite 8.

Maybe. You were brilliant not to accept any last longer bets with Kansas though. Gotta give you props there. Nobody knows their rivals as well as you do bub.
 
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