Relationship between recruiting rankings and wins
- Thread starter ExitFlagger
- Start date
For sure. The teams with the most talent usually win.
But the odds of UK or Duke winning each year are slim. Theyve had less time to bond, less time to practice, less time to develop, and they're mainly 18 and 19 year old kids going up against 22 and 23 year old men.
All I ask is that UK be in the conversation every season, and they are.
If anyone expects anything more than that, they're delusional.
Why don't you guys get it yet? The most talented teams are always going to be contenders whereas the title contender teams you cite that have lowly ranked experienced veterans are a flash in the pan where a number of things happened where you have a perfect storm of a roster staying around for 4 years, meshing and outplaying their ranking.
If Coach K or Cal could identify which of the top 15 HS kids will stick around for 3 years, they would take those guys but they don't have that crystal ball.
UNC had Pinson, Justin Jackson and Joel Berry stick around while everyone ranked around them left for the NBA after 1 year which helped them get to the NCAA title game in 2017 and 2018.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2014/order/true
1. Jahlil Okafor (OAD)
2. Myles Turner (OAD)
3. Cliff Alexander (Bust OAD)
4. Tyus Jones (OAD)
5. Emmanuel Mudiay (Overseas OAD)
6. Trey Lyles (OAD)
7. Stanley Johnson (OAD)
8. Justin Jackson (stays at UNC for 3 years, I guess he loved school!)
9. Karl Towns (OAD)
10. Theo Pinson (stays at UNC for 4 years, a true scholar!!)
11. Kelly Oubre (OAD)
12. Kevon Looney (OAD)
13. D'Angelo Russell (OAD)
14. Isaiah Whitehead (stress fracture freshman year, 2 and Done)
15. Justise Winslow (OAD)
16. Isaac Copeland (Bust)
17. Joel Berry (stays at UNC for 4 years, another scholar and gentleman apparently!)
18. Devin Booker (OAD)
19. Rashad Vaughan (OAD)
20. James Blackmon Jr. (3 year player)
Out of the top 20 HS recruits in 2014, only the 3 UNC guys stayed 3 years in college besides James Blackmon from IU and Isaac Copeland who's a bust.
If Coach K or Cal could identify which of the top 15 HS kids will stick around for 3 years, they would take those guys but they don't have that crystal ball.
UNC had Pinson, Justin Jackson and Joel Berry stick around while everyone ranked around them left for the NBA after 1 year which helped them get to the NCAA title game in 2017 and 2018.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2014/order/true
1. Jahlil Okafor (OAD)
2. Myles Turner (OAD)
3. Cliff Alexander (Bust OAD)
4. Tyus Jones (OAD)
5. Emmanuel Mudiay (Overseas OAD)
6. Trey Lyles (OAD)
7. Stanley Johnson (OAD)
8. Justin Jackson (stays at UNC for 3 years, I guess he loved school!)
9. Karl Towns (OAD)
10. Theo Pinson (stays at UNC for 4 years, a true scholar!!)
11. Kelly Oubre (OAD)
12. Kevon Looney (OAD)
13. D'Angelo Russell (OAD)
14. Isaiah Whitehead (stress fracture freshman year, 2 and Done)
15. Justise Winslow (OAD)
16. Isaac Copeland (Bust)
17. Joel Berry (stays at UNC for 4 years, another scholar and gentleman apparently!)
18. Devin Booker (OAD)
19. Rashad Vaughan (OAD)
20. James Blackmon Jr. (3 year player)
Out of the top 20 HS recruits in 2014, only the 3 UNC guys stayed 3 years in college besides James Blackmon from IU and Isaac Copeland who's a bust.
LMAO. It really is incredible.
Even funnier is that they deny that there’s anything unusual about it.
Disagree with this part. You say that a crystal ball is needed, yet this sample of OADs was very predictable. I mean, is anyone shocked that the UNC guys hung around? The only question is how does he do it (besides fake classes). Mind control?
I'm still befuddled to this day how the #1 Overall recruit from HS Harrison Barnes stayed for another year at UNC, truly shocking.
At least Coby and Little left after this year otherwise there would need to be an investigation into what is going on there.
Crazy my man! What did you think of our bengals draft? You’re one of the few people that actually keep me from jumping off the ledge each year we suck. What did you think of our picks?
The angle is that if you recruit all 4 stars, you"ll likely only be a title contender when those guys are juniors or seniors so you"ll be in the championship mix 1/4 years provided you have a good coach and the players develop.
Schools like Duke and UK on the other hand are championship contenders every year since our top end talent is usually so predictably good.
Give me the talent and I"ll let the coach roll out the balls all day long.
You've seemed to take a 180 since the season ended, but I agree, give me talent over experience any day.
What? Championship mix 1 out of 4 years? No. If you have a quality coach and are recruiting the right players, you'll be in the mix every year. Maybe not at the very beginning of that coach's tenure, obviously. But why would you not contend if every year you have a bunch of junior and senior 4 stars that have developed? Again...provided that the recruits are solid and that you're not collecting a slew of busts.
And are you saying that you prefer to annually reload with elite freshmen rather than have a balance?
Balance would be ideal but you need the right sort of 4 star who's willing to stick around and get better because the elite freshmen are likely to get the bulk of the playing time and usage.
Guys like Herro, Kennard, SKJ, Jeter, Thornton, Jermarl Baker, etc. are supposed to stick around and be the depth pieces for Duke and UK but they either blow up and go to the NBA or transfer to get more playing time.
Some kids do like the college experience and to chase a title. All that talent duke had 1 title, 1 final 4, that's a shocker. Experienced talent trumps inexperienced talent.
Let’s say the minimum success standard is a Final Four appearance. (Banners count most!)
80 total NCAA tournaments 1939-2019
22 / 353 D1 schools have 5+ Final Fours
25% (roughly) have made 1 Final Four
* No there hasn’t always been 353 D1 basketball schools, but majority of them have been around for over 75% of the tournaments.
UCLA, Duke, UNC, UK, Kansas have 15-20 Final Four appearances each. Only SIX schools have at least half that amount and here we all are arguing about whether [insert team listed above] sucks / underperforming because of “X” year. Fans of Duke, UK, Kansas and UNC have been continously spoiled rotten decade after decade with continuous success.
Duke fans were heartbroken this year
UNC fans heartbroken in ‘08
UK fans heartbroken in ‘15
Kansas fans heartbroken in ‘12
(And many, many other years for all)
The best team does not always win. Matter of fact, it’s kind of rare. The Final Four is rarely chalk. This is the reality of a single elimination tournament. Upsets happen constantly. If college basketball used a NBA playoff style system (heck, even best of 3 series) banners would look substantially different. The term “March Madness” holds very true meaning.
80 total NCAA tournaments 1939-2019
22 / 353 D1 schools have 5+ Final Fours
25% (roughly) have made 1 Final Four
* No there hasn’t always been 353 D1 basketball schools, but majority of them have been around for over 75% of the tournaments.
UCLA, Duke, UNC, UK, Kansas have 15-20 Final Four appearances each. Only SIX schools have at least half that amount and here we all are arguing about whether [insert team listed above] sucks / underperforming because of “X” year. Fans of Duke, UK, Kansas and UNC have been continously spoiled rotten decade after decade with continuous success.
Duke fans were heartbroken this year
UNC fans heartbroken in ‘08
UK fans heartbroken in ‘15
Kansas fans heartbroken in ‘12
(And many, many other years for all)
The best team does not always win. Matter of fact, it’s kind of rare. The Final Four is rarely chalk. This is the reality of a single elimination tournament. Upsets happen constantly. If college basketball used a NBA playoff style system (heck, even best of 3 series) banners would look substantially different. The term “March Madness” holds very true meaning.
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