Most "wide open" NCAA tournament ever?

[boilerzz]

I'm guessing that people aren't slobbering over Purdue because the Big 10 isn't that impressive this year. I mean, Rutgers is probably their top competition. Their schedule hasn't exactly been murderer's row.

Here's what I find fascinating. The Big 12 rightfully gets propped up for being a murderer's row and everyone is beating each other.

In the Big 10, everyone is beating each other (except Purdue) and it's unimpressive. I get it's not the Big 12 but......

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Big 12 Conference	+18.81
2	Big Ten Conference	+15.21
3	Big East Conference	+13.70
4	Southeastern Conference	+13.51
5	Pac 12 Conference	+11.41
6	Atlantic Coast Conference	+9.45
7	Mountain West Conference	+9.21
8	American Athletic Conference	+6.60
9	West Coast Conference	+6.02
10	Conference USA	+2.97

 

[boilerzz]

Just saying...without a true signature win, it shouldn't shock anybody that they haven't been crowned the prohibitive favorite. Their best win is probably one of Rutgers, Marquette or Gonzaga. I think there are a number of teams that would have a similar record with their schedule.

Just FYI - Purdue is 9-1 in Quad 1. Kansas is the only other school with 9 Q1 wins and they are 9-4. No one else has more than 7 quad 1 wins.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Just FYI - Purdue is 9-1 in Quad 1. Kansas is the only other school with 9 Q1 wins and they are 9-4. No one else has more than 7 quad 1 wins.

But we're talking about being the prohibitive favorite. Do you think it's insulting if there isn't a national consensus that Purdue is the clear favorite?

Quad 1 wins are great, but that doesn't mean they have a statement win.

 

[boilerzz]

But we're talking about being the prohibitive favorite. Do you think it's insulting if there isn't a national consensus that Purdue is the clear favorite?

Quad 1 wins are great, but that doesn't mean they have a statement win.

I think it's extremely rare that there is a consensus clear favorite. It's the NCAA tournament and chalk rarely happens.

I was speaking more to this statement:

I think there are a number of teams that would have a similar record with their schedule.

There is nothing in Purdue or anyone else's profile that suggests this to be remotely true. Purdue has one loss and it's to the current #17 KenPom team. And while I think "signature win" is a very subjective term, no one else in the country has avoiding tripping up against a KenPom sub top 20 team. And if my research is right, Kansas, Texas and Baylor are the only schools not named Purdue who hasn't lost to a KenPom #40 or worse team. So I don't know how you can say there are multiple teams who'd have a similar record as Purdue's current 22-1 mark.

 

[ExitFlagger]

I think it's extremely rare that there is a consensus clear favorite. It's the NCAA tournament and chalk rarely happens.

I was speaking more to this statement:

I think there are a number of teams that would have a similar record with their schedule.

There is nothing in Purdue or anyone else's profile that suggests this to be remotely true. Purdue has one loss and it's to the current #17 KenPom team. And while I think "signature win" is a very subjective term, no one else in the country has avoiding tripping up against a KenPom sub top 20 team. And if my research is right, Kansas, Texas and Baylor are the only schools not named Purdue who hasn't lost to a KenPom #40 or worse team. So I don't know how you can say there are multiple teams who'd have a similar record as Purdue's current 22-1 mark.

For starters, I'd say that Kenpom is still pretty flawed. Do you think that WV is actually the 5th best team in the Big 12 and #18 in the country? A person could argue that KU's "worst" loss per Kenpom (#24 K-State on the road) was actually the toughest. You could definitely make a good case that they're better than 24th. I don't think Kenpom numbers prove that no other team is capable of a similar record vs Purdue's schedule (similar meaning within one loss or so).

Second, more frequent games against top competition increases the likelihood of dropping more games.

Yeah, "signature win" is subjective. Marquette might look like a really good win by the end of the year, but like dukedevilz said, they're playing much better now than they were then. Shortly after they lost to Purdue, they lost to a terrible Miss St team.

In your opinion, were any of Purdue's opponents playing like elite title contenders when they met?

 

[boilerzz]

For starters, I'd say that Kenpom is still pretty flawed. Do you think that WV is actually the 5th best team in the Big 12 and #18 in the country? A person could argue that KU's "worst" loss per Kenpom (#24 K-State on the road) was actually the toughest. You could definitely make a good case that they're better than 24th. I don't think Kenpom numbers prove that no other team is capable of a similar record vs Purdue's schedule (similar meaning within one loss or so).

Second, more frequent games against top competition increases the likelihood of dropping more games.

Yeah, "signature win" is subjective. Marquette might look like a really good win by the end of the year, but like dukedevilz said, they're playing much better now than they were then. Shortly after they lost to Purdue, they lost to a terrible Miss St team.

In your opinion, were any of Purdue's opponents playing like elite title contenders when they met?

No metric is without it's flaws or anomalies. But it's all we have to work with. If you'd prefer, we can use NET. The only teams without a loss outside of Q1 are Purdue, Bama, UCLA, Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Iowa State, Duke and WVU. Q1 records for those teams are:

Purdue 9-1
Bama 6-3
UCLA 4-4
Kansas 9-4
Texas 7-4
Baylor 7-6
Iowa State 6-6
Duke 2-6
WVU 5-9

And we can cherry pick the "when you played them" argument. Tennessee is much better now than when they beat Kansas. They lost by 12 to a poor Colorado 12 days earlier and the night before the Kansas game, they were taken to OT by a USC team that looked bad at the time but is finally looking better.

"Elite title contender" is an even more subjective term than "signature win". Connecticut looked like one at one point. They don't anymore. Houston has one great win and a bunch of shit (I'm still not sold on St Mary's). Tennessee lost a home game to a shit Kentucky team and were run by a bubble Florida team. I think UCLA should be but their best win is what, at Maryland?

 

[ExitFlagger]

No metric is without it's flaws or anomalies. But it's all we have to work with. If you'd prefer, we can use NET. The only teams without a loss outside of Q1 are Purdue, Bama, UCLA, Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Iowa State, Duke and WVU. Q1 records for those teams are:

Purdue 9-1
Bama 6-3
UCLA 4-4
Kansas 9-4
Texas 7-4
Baylor 7-6
Iowa State 6-6
Duke 2-6
WVU 5-9

And we can cherry pick the "when you played them" argument. Tennessee is much better now than when they beat Kansas. They lost by 12 to a poor Colorado 12 days earlier and the night before the Kansas game, they were taken to OT by a USC team that looked bad at the time but is finally looking better.

"Elite title contender" is an even more subjective term than "signature win". Connecticut looked like one at one point. They don't anymore. Houston has one great win and a bunch of shit (I'm still not sold on St Mary's). Tennessee lost a home game to a shit Kentucky team and were run by a bubble Florida team. I think UCLA should be but their best win is what, at Maryland?

Of course it's subjective. Why would I be expecting anything else when asking for your opinion?

And yes, all metrics are flawed. Remember, you're the one who wanted to use Kenpom to "prove" my opinion wrong. Btw, if you're going by Kenpom, Purdue is the 3rd best team, a full two points below Houston. And 4th per Sagarin.

 

[boilerzz]

Of course it's subjective. Why would I be expecting anything else when asking for your opinion?

And yes, all metrics are flawed. Remember, you're the one who wanted to use Kenpom to "prove" my opinion wrong. Btw, if you're going by Kenpom, Purdue is the 3rd best team, a full two points below Houston. And 4th per Sagarin.

Clearly all metrics are flawed!