Most "wide open" NCAA tournament ever?

[frazor]

Obviously somebody could still establish themself as the leader over the next six weeks but man it feels like 15 different teams could find themselves playing for the title this year.

Gun to your head who would you pick today? I'll take the Zags I suppose and eat a bullet.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Probably Houston or UCLA.

 

[AuHoosier420]

Purdue looks better than everyone else by far and if they didn’t have their negative post season history more would be on them also. They have the biggest miss match going for them.

 

[dukedevilz]

I'll take the Zags I suppose and eat a bullet.

Would be crazy if the Zags won it all, because this is clearly not their most talented team. But, there clearly aren't any juggernauts, so why not?

If I had to put money on someone, I'd still go with Houston (my preseason #1 team). Stingy defense, they rebound really well, and they have excellent guard play.

 

[dukedevilz]

This stat caught my eye. Rebounding Margin. Look at the top 15 teams.

1. Purdue, 11.5
2. UMass Lowell, 9.5
3. Duke, 9.1
4. Providence, 9.0
5. Tennessee, 8.1
5. UConn, 8.1
7. Saint Mary's, 8.0
7. San Jose State, 8.0
9. Princeton, 7.8
9. Yale, 7.8
11. Houston, 7.7
11. Kentucky, 7.7
13. Western Michigan, 7.6
14. Alabama, 7.4
14. Arizona, 7.4

10 of the 15 schools are projected to make the tournament, including all four of the 1 seeds. Rebounding margin is huge; it means more opportunities for you - and less opportunities for your opponents. Perhaps an undervalued stat? Here are the projected seeds from those 10 schools in the bracketmatrix:

1- Purdue
1- Alabama
1- Houston
1- Tennessee

2- Arizona
5- UConn
5- Saint Mary's
6- Providence
6- Duke
11- Kentucky

 

[ExitFlagger]

Wouldn't be surprised to see some of the "forgotten" teams go on a run. Gonzaga, Creighton, UNC, etc. They've all got plenty of talent. Creighton's a team I don't want to see as the 7 in my region.

 

[AuHoosier420]

This stat caught my eye. Rebounding Margin. Look at the top 15 teams.

1. Purdue, 11.5
2. UMass Lowell, 9.5
3. Duke, 9.1
4. Providence, 9.0
5. Tennessee, 8.1
5. UConn, 8.1
7. Saint Mary's, 8.0
7. San Jose State, 8.0
9. Princeton, 7.8
9. Yale, 7.8
11. Houston, 7.7
11. Kentucky, 7.7
13. Western Michigan, 7.6
14. Alabama, 7.4
14. Arizona, 7.4

10 of the 15 schools are projected to make the tournament, including all four of the 1 seeds. Rebounding margin is huge; it means more opportunities for you - and less opportunities for your opponents. Perhaps an undervalued stat? Here are the projected seeds from those 10 schools in the bracketmatrix:

1- Purdue
1- Alabama
1- Houston
1- Tennessee

2- Arizona
5- UConn
5- Saint Mary's
6- Providence
6- Duke
11- Kentucky

If duke had the Purdue roster they would be going away favorite. This Purdue team is very good and stacked. People just are scared to endorse the Purdue name

 

[lurkeraspect84]

If duke had the Purdue roster they would be going away favorite. This Purdue team is very good and stacked. People just are scared to endorse the Purdue name

Why do you think that is?
What if Pearl or AU had Purdue's roster?

 

[ExitFlagger]

If duke had the Purdue roster they would be going away favorite. This Purdue team is very good and stacked. People just are scared to endorse the Purdue name

I'm guessing that people aren't slobbering over Purdue because the Big 10 isn't that impressive this year. I mean, Rutgers is probably their top competition. Their schedule hasn't exactly been murderer's row.

 

[dukedevilz]

If duke had the Purdue roster they would be going away favorite. This Purdue team is very good and stacked. People just are scared to endorse the Purdue name

Purdue is capable of winning it all, for sure. Edey is a monster and this team plays excellent team basketball.

My biggest concern with them would be guard play. Smith and Loyer are good. I wouldn't qualify them as elite, however. Usually you need exceptionally elite backcourt play to win 6. I'd be curious to see how they'd fare in a Sweet 16 game against a team that generates a lot of pressure, like a Marquette or an Iowa State.

The other big concern with Purdue is they haven't beaten a KenPom top 25 team since their 5th game of the season - way back in November.

 

[dukedevilz]

I know Purdue already beat Marquette. But, I think Marquette is playing at a much higher level now... and Purdue was actually quite fortunate to win that game. I want to say Marquette was winning by 6-8 points with 5-6 minutes left and then they just tanked... and the game was played in West Lafayette.

 

[AuHoosier420]

Purdue is capable of winning it all, for sure. Edey is a monster and this team plays excellent team basketball.

My biggest concern with them would be guard play. Smith and Loyer are good. I wouldn't qualify them as elite, however. Usually you need exceptionally elite backcourt play to win 6. I'd be curious to see how they'd fare in a Sweet 16 game against a team that generates a lot of pressure, like a Marquette or an Iowa State.

The other big concern with Purdue is they haven't beaten a KenPom top 25 team since their 5th game of the season - way back in November.

I'm guessing that people aren't slobbering over Purdue because the Big 10 isn't that impressive this year. I mean, Rutgers is probably their top competition. Their schedule hasn't exactly been murderer's row.

Yet these same people slobbered all over Gonzaga when they were rolling through shit competition

 

[ExitFlagger]

Yet these same people slobbered all over Gonzaga when they were rolling through shit competition

People doubt Gonzaga every year. And that's a program that's been really good in the tourney and has come close to a title multiple times.

 

[dukedevilz]

Yet these same people slobbered all over Gonzaga when they were rolling through shit competition

Gonzaga gets crapped on every year. And yet during the past 7 tournaments, they made 7 S16s, 4 Elite 8s, and 2 title games. I'm very much a skeptic of Gonzaga this year. Their guards aren't that good. I'd be surprised if they made it past the Sweet 16 this year.

Purdue can win it all, don't get me wrong. Edey is an impossible matchup for most teams. What I said about Gonzaga last year, is how I feel about Purdue this year.

Gonzaga could also lose in the Sweet 16 (and they could win the whole thing, too).

 

[AuHoosier420]

Gonzaga gets crapped on every year. And yet during the past 7 tournaments, they made 7 S16s, 4 Elite 8s, and 2 title games. I'm very much a skeptic of Gonzaga this year. Their guards aren't that good. I'd be surprised if they made it past the Sweet 16 this year.

Purdue can win it all, don't get me wrong. Edey is an impossible matchup for most teams. What I said about Gonzaga last year, is how I feel about Purdue this year.

My issue is just that people are doubting Purdue because of the name on the jersey. Has nothing to do with the guards. You put duke’s name on that jersey and people aren’t talking about the guards not being elite. Just look at the year duke had Zion and the slobbering the media did for duke. Edey is just as dominate.

 

[Scotty00]

Purdue comes to mind right off the bat but I think this year we will see another run like UNc did last year. It is the most wide open I’ve ever seen it. Should be a fun March.

 

[della]

There are a lot of teams that could win it. I think it will come down to matchups in the tourney.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Could be a great year for coaches who's never amounted to shit actually doing something.

 

[della]

Could be a great year for coaches who's never amounted to shit actually doing something.

Yeah, cause a lot of coaches that have done something are looking like shit now.

 

[boilerzz]

This stat caught my eye. Rebounding Margin. Look at the top 15 teams.

1. Purdue, 11.5
2. UMass Lowell, 9.5
3. Duke, 9.1
4. Providence, 9.0
5. Tennessee, 8.1
5. UConn, 8.1
7. Saint Mary's, 8.0
7. San Jose State, 8.0
9. Princeton, 7.8
9. Yale, 7.8
11. Houston, 7.7
11. Kentucky, 7.7
13. Western Michigan, 7.6
14. Alabama, 7.4
14. Arizona, 7.4

10 of the 15 schools are projected to make the tournament, including all four of the 1 seeds. Rebounding margin is huge; it means more opportunities for you - and less opportunities for your opponents. Perhaps an undervalued stat? Here are the projected seeds from those 10 schools in the bracketmatrix:

1- Purdue
1- Alabama
1- Houston
1- Tennessee

2- Arizona
5- UConn
5- Saint Mary's
6- Providence
6- Duke
11- Kentucky

It's funny you mention that. I think one of the things that has helped Matt Painter become one of the most respected coaches in the game and able to do more with less is his use of analytics. He focuses on two things:

Possessions - He strives to win the possession game by a wide margin. That's done by generating a much higher offensive rebounding rate and winning the turnover margin. As you indicate, we do very well on the rebounding side. On the offensive side, we don't force a lot of turnovers but don't turn the ball over much either, even when pressured.

Pushing opponents to poor shot selection - Purdue's focus is to get teams to take as many 2 point jump shots as possible. And they've done it better than anyone. According to Hoop-math.com, Purdue opponents shoot 39.3% of their shots as 2 point shots. That's #1 nationally. Creighton is close behind at 39.2% and the 3rd most is down at 36.5%. Obviously having Edey in the middle helps with preventing shots at the rims.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

I'm guessing that people aren't slobbering over Purdue because the Big 10 isn't that impressive this year. I mean, Rutgers is probably their top competition. Their schedule hasn't exactly been murderer's row.

Who is besides the Big XII, though? College basketball seems like upset after upset every week.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Yeah, cause a lot of coaches that have done something are looking like shit now.

To be fair they've accomplished something along the way.

 

[dukedevilz]

My issue is just that people are doubting Purdue because of the name on the jersey. Has nothing to do with the guards. You put duke’s name on that jersey and people aren’t talking about the guards not being elite. Just look at the year duke had Zion and the slobbering the media did for duke. Edey is just as dominate.

It's fair to say Edey is just as dominant as Zion. But it's also fair to say Zion had a better supporting cast than Edey. RJ Barrett was 1st Team All-American. Cam Reddish was a lottery pick. The tournament takes a bit of luck to win 6. If you replayed it 10 times, you'd probably get 4-5 different winners. As it was, Duke was 3-0 against the two teams in the 2019 title game.

Purdue can win it all. I expect them to make the Sweet 16, at the bare minimum.

 

[dukedevilz]

It's funny you mention that. I think one of the things that has helped Matt Painter become one of the most respected coaches in the game and able to do more with less is his use of analytics. He focuses on two things:

Possessions - He strives to win the possession game by a wide margin. That's done by generating a much higher offensive rebounding rate and winning the turnover margin. As you indicate, we do very well on the rebounding side. On the offensive side, we don't force a lot of turnovers but don't turn the ball over much either, even when pressured.

Pushing opponents to poor shot selection - Purdue's focus is to get teams to take as many 2 point jump shots as possible. And they've done it better than anyone. According to Hoop-math.com, Purdue opponents shoot 39.3% of their shots as 2 point shots. That's #1 nationally. Creighton is close behind at 39.2% and the 3rd most is down at 36.5%. Obviously having Edey in the middle helps with preventing shots at the rims.

Yeah, the more I look at rebounding margin, the more I think it's not talked about enough. Here are the leaders in rebounding percentage from last year (couldn't find rebounding margin, but this is arguably a better metric). 350+ teams and the ones who dominate the boards have overwhelmingly successful seasons.

2022 Team Rebounding Percentage
1. Purdue - Sweet 16
2. Kentucky - 2 seed
3. TCU - Round of 32
4. UNC - Title Game
5. Gonzaga - 1 seed / Sweet 16
8. UConn- 5 seed
10. Arizona - 1 seed / Sweet 16
11. Houston - Elite 8
16. Texas Tech - Sweet 16
17. New Mexico State - Round of 32
21. USC - 7 seed
24. Memphis - Round of 32
25. Michigan - Sweet 16
28. Illinois - Round of 32
33. Baylor - 1 seed
34. Kansas - Champs

 

[jwardelt]

If duke had the Purdue roster they would be going away favorite. This Purdue team is very good and stacked. People just are scared to endorse the Purdue name

They'll shit the bed. It's science.

 

[della]

To be fair they've accomplished something along the way.

Both, yeah.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Both, yeah.

There are more than two coaches who've accomplished something. Heck, there are more than two HOF coaches still coaching.

 

[jhmossy]

There are a lot of teams that could win it. I think it will come down to matchups in the tourney.

 

[della]

Who is besides the Big XII, though? College basketball seems like upset after upset every week.

I can only think of one team that has beaten the top of the Big 12 without a scratch.🤔

 

[della]

There are more than two coaches who've accomplished something. Heck, there are more than two HOF coaches still coaching.

You must of misread my meaning. Both types coaches that have accomplished something and those that have not. You were talking about types of coaches, right?

 

[boilerzz]

They'll shit the bed. It's science.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

You must of misread my meaning. Both types coaches that have accomplished something and those that have not. You were talking about types of coaches, right?

Could be a great year for coaches who's never amounted to shit actually doing something.

No offense, but honestly I have no idea which side of your mouth to keep up with. Half the time I don't know what you're on about.

I'm sure it's just me.

 

[jwardelt]

If only you had something that could dispute it at this point...

 

[della]

No offense, but honestly I have no idea which side of your mouth to keep up with. Half the time I don't know what you're on about.

I'm sure it's just me.

You're right about it being just you. We were talking about different types of coaches. If you got confused you could always scroll up.

Regardless, how are you feeling after your hospital stay? I asked you once before and you didn't respond. Are you better now?

 

[WeAreDePaul]

Purdue is capable of winning it all, for sure. Edey is a monster and this team plays excellent team basketball.

My biggest concern with them would be guard play. Smith and Loyer are good. I wouldn't qualify them as elite, however. Usually you need exceptionally elite backcourt play to win 6. I'd be curious to see how they'd fare in a Sweet 16 game against a team that generates a lot of pressure, like a Marquette or an Iowa State.

The other big concern with Purdue is they haven't beaten a KenPom top 25 team since their 5th game of the season - way back in November.

Agreed. I like the Purdue guards, but aren't they both freshmen? Tough to buy stock in that for a long tourney run. As we know guard play is the key to winning in March.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

I can only think of one team that has beaten the top of the Big 12 without a scratch.🤔

#17 Illinois 85, #2 Texas 78



(Texas is currently in first place, FWIW!)

 

[della]

#17 Illinois 85, #2 Texas 78



(Texas is currently in first place, FWIW!)

I meant more than one Big 12 top.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Who is besides the Big XII, though? College basketball seems like upset after upset every week.

Just saying...without a true signature win, it shouldn't shock anybody that they haven't been crowned the prohibitive favorite. Their best win is probably one of Rutgers, Marquette or Gonzaga. I think there are a number of teams that would have a similar record with their schedule.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

I meant more than one Big 12 top.

Ah, I gotcha. My bad. Yeah, I guess my original point is that the Big XII looks quite good, but I think you can't really judge, say, the Big Ten or SEC for beating up on each other and that means they're "mediocre" or whatever. They're just really competitive. So is the Big XII, but we still have anecdotal evidence that a team like Illinois can beat Texas or a team like Iowa can absolutely smoke Iowa State. I am not a fan of talking about which conferences are "good" or "bad" because it's honestly REALLY hard to compare.

 

[della]

Ah, I gotcha. My bad. Yeah, I guess my original point is that the Big XII looks quite good, but I think you can't really judge, say, the Big Ten or SEC for beating up on each other and that means they're "mediocre" or whatever. They're just really competitive. So is the Big XII, but we still have anecdotal evidence that a team like Illinois can beat Texas or a team like Iowa can absolutely smoke Iowa State. I am not a fan of talking about which conferences are "good" or "bad" because it's honestly REALLY hard to compare.

Well, I think the Big12 is really good.