I think when the rule goes into effect everyone will calm down with this wild speculation of free agency, guys transferring every year, and the blue bloods crushing the mid majors for their top players.
Its a huge pain in the ass to transfer out of a school and if things are going well, as in you're a featured player with a team being built around you, then why would you leave for any reason other than the NBA?
For basketball what I think you will see is a lot more transfers for guys 6-12 on the bench.
You will also see a lot more transfers when a big name coach leaves a program.
Neither is a bad thing and good for players, why should player X be stranded at school Y when they committed to play in Coach Z's system if Coach Z leaves for a bigger opportunity, they should atleast be afforded the opportunity to follow the coach they basically helped build up.
What I dont think you will see, is what everyone seems to fear and thats Kentucky poaching VCU's top Junior Guard to join a college superteam and provide veteran leadership for a group of 5 prospective OADs. I just dont think the top senior talent would bail like that when they are set to lead their own team and have to impress a whole new coaching staff and mesh with a new set of players and potentially lose their starting spot.