KenPom Preseason Top 50

[dukedevilz]

KenPom is the best in the business. I like most of his rankings, but not fully on board with a few. Thoughts?

6 teams that I think are a little too high or low...

Too High: Texas, Ohio Sate, Purdue, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State
Too Low: Virginia, Illinois, Tennessee, Arizona State, Cincinnati (#59), Georgia Tech (#73)

					Strength of Schedule	NCSOS
Rk	Team	Conf	W-L	AdjEM	AdjO	AdjD	AdjT	Luck	AdjEM	OppO	OppD	AdjEM
1	Baylor	B12	0-0	+26.67	112.4	3	85.7	8	70.2	307	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
2	Gonzaga	WCC	0-0	+26.56	113.4	1	86.8	13	74.3	41	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
3	Duke	ACC	0-0	+26.35	111.7	4	85.3	6	74.3	38	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
4	Villanova	BE	0-0	+25.24	111.5	5	86.2	9	70.2	303	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
5	Kansas	B12	0-0	+24.17	108.9	11	84.7	4	71.9	181	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
6	Texas Tech	B12	0-0	+23.68	108.7	14	85.0	5	70.6	280	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
7	Wisconsin	B10	0-0	+23.58	108.2	19	84.6	2	68.2	351	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
8	West Virginia	B12	0-0	+23.17	108.8	12	85.6	7	73.1	91	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
9	Texas	B12	0-0	+22.21	106.9	32	84.7	3	70.0	312	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
10	Ohio St.	B10	0-0	+22.00	108.3	18	86.3	10	70.5	288	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
11	Kentucky	SEC	0-0	+21.27	108.7	13	87.5	18	71.7	195	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
12	Iowa	B10	0-0	+21.27	113.3	2	92.0	73	73.5	64	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
13	Creighton	BE	0-0	+21.20	111.3	6	90.1	46	72.6	125	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
14	Louisville	ACC	0-0	+20.90	108.1	22	87.2	14	71.7	199	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
15	Michigan St.	B10	0-0	+20.75	109.2	10	88.5	28	72.1	163	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
16	Virginia	ACC	0-0	+20.49	103.8	75	83.3	1	65.0	357	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
17	Michigan	B10	0-0	+20.41	109.2	9	88.8	31	72.3	140	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
18	Illinois	B10	0-0	+20.05	108.1	20	88.1	21	71.2	246	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
19	Florida St.	ACC	0-0	+20.05	107.5	26	87.4	16	73.6	62	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
20	Tennessee	SEC	0-0	+20.00	107.6	25	87.6	20	70.3	296	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
21	Oregon	P12	0-0	+19.98	108.6	15	88.6	29	69.8	321	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
22	Houston	Amer	0-0	+19.77	110.1	8	90.3	49	70.2	304	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
23	North Carolina	ACC	0-0	+19.75	107.9	23	88.1	22	74.1	42	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
24	Florida	SEC	0-0	+19.52	107.8	24	88.3	24	69.9	318	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
25	Purdue	B10	0-0	+19.10	108.4	16	89.3	37	69.8	322	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
26	Indiana	B10	0-0	+18.99	106.4	40	87.4	17	71.6	209	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
27	Rutgers	B10	0-0	+18.75	105.4	51	86.6	12	71.1	250	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
28	UCLA	P12	0-0	+18.41	108.4	17	90.0	45	69.0	344	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
29	Syracuse	ACC	0-0	+18.29	107.5	27	89.2	35	71.2	248	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
30	Virginia Tech	ACC	0-0	+18.21	106.6	38	88.4	26	69.9	317	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
31	Oklahoma	B12	0-0	+18.03	107.1	30	89.1	34	73.5	66	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
32	Stanford	P12	0-0	+17.81	104.3	69	86.5	11	72.3	141	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
33	Oklahoma St.	B12	0-0	+17.80	106.5	39	88.7	30	71.9	178	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
34	Marquette	BE	0-0	+17.77	107.1	31	89.3	39	73.7	55	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
35	Minnesota	B10	0-0	+17.63	106.6	35	89.0	33	71.4	231	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
36	Arizona St.	P12	0-0	+17.42	106.6	36	89.2	36	75.2	16	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
37	LSU	SEC	0-0	+17.17	110.5	7	93.3	83	73.2	82	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
38	Arizona	P12	0-0	+17.02	105.3	53	88.2	23	72.3	146	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
39	Memphis	Amer	0-0	+17.02	104.5	65	87.5	19	75.7	12	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
40	Clemson	ACC	0-0	+16.74	106.0	46	89.3	38	70.0	311	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
						Strength of Schedule	NCSOS
Rk	Team	Conf	W-L	AdjEM	AdjO	AdjD	AdjT	Luck	AdjEM	OppO	OppD	AdjEM
41	Miami FL	ACC	0-0	+16.70	107.1	29	90.4	51	71.3	236	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
42	Mississippi	SEC	0-0	+16.64	105.1	57	88.5	27	71.5	222	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
43	Connecticut	BE	0-0	+16.29	106.9	33	90.6	52	71.8	190	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
44	San Diego St.	MWC	0-0	+15.90	105.3	52	89.4	40	69.9	314	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
45	Saint Louis	A10	0-0	+15.76	104.1	70	88.4	25	70.6	281	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
46	Alabama	SEC	0-0	+15.72	106.6	37	90.9	59	76.7	6	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
47	Loyola Chicago	MVC	0-0	+15.54	104.4	67	88.9	32	69.4	335	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
48	USC	P12	0-0	+15.37	104.9	60	89.5	42	72.6	122	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
49	Dayton	A10	0-0	+15.18	108.1	21	93.0	80	70.9	265	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1
50	Seton Hall	BE	0-0	+15.17	105.5	49	90.3	48	73.0	93	+.000	1	+0.00	1	0.0	1	0.0	1	+0.00	1

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Next level @dukedevilz, Well done.

 

[boilerzz]

I think you underestimate Matt Painter, whose teams have finished 9, 19, 5, 9 and 24 at KenPom the last 5 years.

 

[dukedevilz]

I think you underestimate Matt Painter, whose teams have finished 9, 19, 5, 9 and 24 at KenPom the last 5 years.

Perhaps. Certainly going to need increased production from Williams, Hunter, and Stefanovic. Haven't seen Ivey, Morton, or Edey play. I heard Morton is a really exceptional passer. I still think they're a tournament team, just not convinced that they're one of the teams which will safely be in.

 

[boilerzz]

Perhaps. Certainly going to need increased production from Williams, Hunter, and Stefanovic. Haven't seen Ivey, Morton, or Edey play. I heard Morton is a really exceptional passer. I still think they're a tournament team, just not convinced that they're one of the teams which will safely be in.

I'm a little concerned about the defense but Matt Painter coached teams are always decent at defense. Since his first season at Purdue, there has only been once that they've finished outside the KenPom top 100 in defensive efficiency. In 2012, they were 114th with Robbie Hummel as part time center and a 6'4 PF when he was (that team was structurally challenged).

Being able to surround Trevion with 4 shooters will demonstrate just how effective he is in the post and as a passer. And when Painter has shooters surrounding an effective post presence, he has an elite efficient offensive unit.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Half the Big 12 in the top 10? Seems legit.

Iowa outside the top 10 where they belong.

 

[Kevin Bryan]

KenPom is a geek and his super duper dorky secret formula is useless when no games have been played.

 

[Jaycg15]

I think you underestimate Matt Painter, whose teams have finished 9, 19, 5, 9 and 24 at KenPom the last 5 years.

I think you underestimate Kenpom's ability to overestimate Big Ten teams. Purdue finished too high last year, so did OSU and Michigan.

 

[dukedevilz]

I'm a little concerned about the defense but Matt Painter coached teams are always decent at defense. Since his first season at Purdue, there has only been once that they've finished outside the KenPom top 100 in defensive efficiency. In 2012, they were 114th with Robbie Hummel as part time center and a 6'4 PF when he was (that team was structurally challenged).

Being able to surround Trevion with 4 shooters will demonstrate just how effective he is in the post and as a passer. And when Painter has shooters surrounding an effective post presence, he has an elite efficient offensive unit.

The 2018 Purdue team was unstoppable on offense. Isaac Haas surrounded by four guys shooting north of 40% from 3. It was sad that he had that elbow injury in the tournament. That of course is the ideal. Haas had a true shooting percentage around 66%, while Williams is around 52%. The '18 team was 2nd in the nation in 3-pt shooting percentage. Last year, they were 199th. Huge difference in offensive capabilities. Purdue is still very good. Just think they're a notch below the teams that had Caleb Swanigan and/or Carsen Edwards.

 

[boilerzz]

The 2018 Purdue team was unstoppable on offense. Isaac Haas surrounded by four guys shooting north of 40% from 3. It was sad that he had that elbow injury in the tournament. That of course is the ideal. Haas had a true shooting percentage around 66%, while Williams is around 52%. The '18 team was 2nd in the nation in 3-pt shooting percentage. Last year, they were 199th. Huge difference in offensive capabilities. Purdue is still very good. Just think they're a notch below the teams that had Caleb Swanigan and/or Carsen Edwards.

Williams TS% was 52% in large part because Nojel Eastern didn't need to be guarded. I will be stunned if it's not much higher this year.

Eastern and Haarms' offensive challenges also contributed to the perimeter shooting issues. Stefanovic proved he can be very good but it was crazy how much he became the focus of opposing defenses due to our offensive liabilities. Losing Procter, Boudreaux, Eastern and Haarms will all be a net positive for our shooting. None shot better than 31.8% from three last year.

 

[GE Nole]

I agree on all your “too low” teams. Especially Illinois and Georgia Tech. Two teams with experienced point guards, which is a big deal in this pandemic landscape.

Texas and UL immediately stood out to me as too high. UT at 9 just isn’t happening. UL, I like Mack, but they lose a lot to just plug and play some transfers in this weird year and be a top 15 team by efficiency.

 

[MGC_07]

I would be shocked to see MSU end the year not in the top 25 on defense. This team is too talented on that end not to. I think we’ll have really solid defense on the perimeter, inside hopefully Bingham or Sissoko can be an anchor.

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

Half of the Big 12 in the Top 10.

Should just declare the Conference Champs the National Champions.

 

[GE Nole]

Half of the Big 12 in the Top 10.

Should just declare the Conference Champs the National Champions.

Kansas fans will be happy with that.

 

[Villian07]

I agree on all your “too low” teams. Especially Illinois and Georgia Tech. Two teams with experienced point guards, which is a big deal in this pandemic landscape.

Texas and UL immediately stood out to me as too high. UT at 9 just isn’t happening. UL, I like Mack, but they lose a lot to just plug and play some transfers in this weird year and be a top 15 team by efficiency.

This is by far the highest I’ve seen us ranked on any type of preseason ranking, list, or poll.

Not so sure we don’t have the talent to be a top 10 contender but at this point a whole lotta fans can say the same thing.

Edit: no clue on how we project efficiently wise, just sticking to wins and losses.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Half of the Big 12 in the Top 10.

Should just declare the Conference Champs the National Champions.

I think we should retroactively name last year's conference champ the National Champ.

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

I think we should retroactively name last year's conference champ the National Champ.

Last year basketball fans were taken away a great conference tournament.
Even the bottom teams were doing whatever they needed to win.
Anyone who played K State last year knew there was a chance you were going to get a battle.

A few teams could compete with KU last year but too many
They were a good team last year. Dotson could get to the rim when they weren't trying to get it inside.


We will see this year.

You saw the improvement with Baylor last year. Interested where they are this year.
Texas gets first crack at them

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

There is a chance that Texas is vastly underrated this year.

Just matters about their players.

Donovan Williams is one to really watch
Kai Jones
Gerald Liddell
Greg Brown


All four of them have tremendous upside.

Without an end of the season we really don't know where Shaka had the team.
They get marked down because of being a bubble team last year.
Roster wise they are up there. Rare that you see that much returning talent that has played. Even started. Everyone on that roster can start and play at a Big 12 level.
That is 13 players. Important with Coronavirus



Texas won't be Too 10 unless they are a Top 10 defense
KenPom is wrong there.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Last year basketball fans were taken away a great conference tournament.
Even the bottom teams were doing whatever they needed to win.
Anyone who played K State last year knew there was a chance you were going to get a battle.

A few teams could compete with KU last year but too many
They were a good team last year. Dotson could get to the rim when they weren't trying to get it inside.


We will see this year.

You saw the improvement with Baylor last year. Interested where they are this year.
Texas gets first crack at them

Assuming that Gonzaga is as defensively-challenged as usual, I think Baylor is a legit #1.

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

Assuming that Gonzaga is as defensively-challenged as usual, I think Baylor is a legit #1.

They can be really good if their young players like LJ Cryer can play early.
I think he eventually can earn some minutes but it will take time

 

[dukedevilz]

I agree on all your “too low” teams. Especially Illinois and Georgia Tech. Two teams with experienced point guards, which is a big deal in this pandemic landscape.

Texas and UL immediately stood out to me as too high. UT at 9 just isn’t happening. UL, I like Mack, but they lose a lot to just plug and play some transfers in this weird year and be a top 15 team by efficiency.

No contact in practice? Yikes. Maybe Georgia Tech won't be a top 50 team after all.

 

[GE Nole]

View embedded media

No contact in practice? Yikes. Maybe Georgia Tech won't be a top 50 team after all.

But maybe that’s the case for tons of teams? This is why I think teams with guards who are experienced in their system will be even more important than they already are most years.

 

[GE Nole]

I will say this—much of FSU’s team had Covid months ago. I don’t know what the stats are for catching it again, and who knows how it impacted their conditioning. But I am thinking it might be an advantage to already know most of your team had it.

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

But maybe that’s the case for tons of teams? This is why I think teams with guards who are experienced in their system will be even more important than they already are most years.

Now you see why people are very high on Texas.
Because they have three players who can play the point.
Coleman has been a starter for three years. Ramey is a junior. Andrew Jones is just more mature than pretty much all of college basketball. Plus he has regained his explosiveness.

 

[Novachp]

Now you see why people are very high on Texas.
Because they have three players who can play the point.
Coleman has been a starter for three years. Ramey is a junior. Andrew Jones is just more mature than pretty much all of college basketball. Plus he has regained his explosiveness.

12/6 game with Nova looks to be on the schedule. Probably get a pretty good read on both teams.

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

12/6 game with Nova looks to be on the schedule. Probably get a pretty good read on both teams.

I am pretty sure the BE/Big 12 challenge is still on.
Last time I checked the schedule for Texas it wasn't on there. But that was maybe 10 days ago.
The Maui Invitational will tell a lot early. If Texas can win that it sets up a big game against Villanova.

Nova is a tough matchup because they usually are great on offense and defense.
Gives the guards a tough matchup to control the backcourt.

 

[Novachp]

I am pretty sure the BE/Big 12 challenge is still on.
Last time I checked the schedule for Texas it wasn't on there. But that was maybe 10 days ago.
The Maui Invitational will tell a lot early. If Texas can win that it sets up a big game against Villanova.

Nova is a tough matchup because they usually are great on offense and defense.
Gives the guards a tough matchup to control the backcourt.

Was announced on nova's side yesterday. Deep, deep nova team this year. Lots of experience. 4 players on the preseason awards watch list. So, really hopeful this season or some version of it does indeed happen. This team can make some noise.

 

[GE Nole]

Now you see why people are very high on Texas.
Because they have three players who can play the point.
Coleman has been a starter for three years. Ramey is a junior. Andrew Jones is just more mature than pretty much all of college basketball. Plus he has regained his explosiveness.

Well, I meant guards who had experience in the system and also played in a system that actually produces winning results. Sorry, I should have been more clear.

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

Well, I meant guards who had experience in the system and also played in a system that actually produces winning results. Sorry, I should have been more clear.

Georgia Tech? Illinois?

You are reaching here

Illinois is pretty much the Big 12 version of Texas

A lot of hype. But neither team has showed to be elite

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

Was announced on nova's side yesterday. Deep, deep nova team this year. Lots of experience. 4 players on the preseason awards watch list. So, really hopeful this season or some version of it does indeed happen. This team can make some noise.

Villanova has the ability to make Texas a jump shooting team and to outrebound them.
When Texas made their change last year they started rebounding better and not be such a perimeter team.
But they at times fall back to that. Did in the last game of the year.

We will see because I think for them they know they have to be aggressive and think they have the players to do so.

 

[GE Nole]

Georgia Tech? Illinois?

You are reaching here

Illinois is pretty much the Big 12 version of Texas

A lot of hype. But neither team has showed to be elite

And neither team is ranked in the top 10 either.

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

And neither team is ranked in the top 10 either.

That was separate from the issue...

You said teams with experience in the backcourt should benefit this year.
Then mentioned Illinois and GA Tech

I said that was why some people were high on Texas...

They have 4 guards in their senior and junior year
Actually one of their juniors is a year older than the seniors guards


I truthfully don't care where they have Texas in preseason polls...

This wasn't about where KenPom has them or where Bart Torvik has them.

They have an experienced backcourt who believes they know what to do to win basketball games.

That was what Matt Coleman said at the end of the year.
They had won 5 straight. Went through Tech, OU and WVU...

Then came out and played like complete shit against Oklahoma State.
Was like they reverted back to being the team that didn't know how to win.
Looked like they were trying to get Kai Jones going. He had his best game of the year actually.

We weren't allowed to see their response.
The basketball was pretty much taken out of their hands minutes before they were going to play Tech again..

Looking at their roster before the season...
Anyone who has had the privilege of watching them practice these past couple of weeks will tell you.

The guards are playing like when they won 5 straight.
When Courtney Ramey was aggressive and creating things for Coleman and Andrew Jones

 

[GE Nole]

It will benefit Texas. UT might be a 9 or 10 seed instead of a 2 seed in the NIT.

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

It will benefit Texas. UT might be a 9 or 10 seed instead of a 2 seed in the NIT.

Exactly.
No matter where they end up it benefits them.

But like I have said. If Shaka knew he has to win he would have hit the transfer portal unless of course he fully trust his players.
Shaka actually believes he had a Sweet 16 team last year.
Reason why he is talking about Final 4 this year.

 

[GE Nole]

Exactly.
No matter where they end up it benefits them.

But like I have said. If Shaka knew he has to win he would have hit the transfer portal unless of course he fully trust his players.
Shaka actually believes he had a Sweet 16 team last year.
Reason why he is talking about Final 4 this year.

Lol, UT wasn’t even gonna make the Dance last year. How would he have a Sweet 16 team playing in the NIT?

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

Lol, UT wasn’t even gonna make the Dance last year. How would he have a Sweet 16 team playing in the NIT?

I disagree
Tech's offense had more issues and their defense took a step back.
Don't think they would have won that game.
Texas actually had just gave them their worst home defeat the entire year in Lubbock.

 

[GE Nole]

I disagree
Tech's offense had more issues and their defense took a step back.
Don't think they would have won that game.
Texas actually had just gave them their worst home defeat the entire year in Lubbock.

That’s one win. Your NET ranking was in the 70s and KenPom wasn’t much better.

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

That’s one win. Your NET ranking was in the 70s and KenPom wasn’t much better.

Even without a win they had a chance to get in.
NET ranking and KenPom isn't as important as finishing .500 in the Big 12.
The previous year proved that

Another win they were in for sure

 

[GE Nole]

Even without a win they had a chance to get in.
NET ranking and KenPom isn't as important as finishing .500 in the Big 12.
The previous year proved that

Another win they were in for sure

Previous year has nothing to do with it.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Exactly.
No matter where they end up it benefits them.

But like I have said. If Shaka knew he has to win he would have hit the transfer portal unless of course he fully trust his players.
Shaka actually believes he had a Sweet 16 team last year.
Reason why he is talking about Final 4 this year.

How are we supposed to know what he actually believed?

What else is a guy on the hot seat going to say? We were one and done at best?