Is It Harder To Repeat As Champion In DI Hoops Than In Any Other Sport At Any Level In The USA?
- Thread starter gymman1031
- Start date
Agree. There's so much that can go wrong in any given game during a one and done 6 round tournament.
You'd be hard pressed to find anything like it. I can't think of any other sport off the top of my head that is comparable in nature. In the past 48 years, Duke (91-92) and Florida (06-07) are the only schools able to repeat as champions. The obvious reason is because the turnover rate is so ridiculously high.
But, it's also extremely challenging to win six games in a row. If you replayed every tournament from the past 40 years (same year and same players), I'd be willing to bet more than half of the tournaments would have a different outcome.
There have also been several reigning champions that if the tournament were replayed, some teams very well may have repeated. Here are a few that come to mind
1985 Georgetown - lost to Villanova in the Finals
1991 UNLV - Undefeated and reigning champs. Lost to Duke by 2 in the Final Four
1994 UNC- #1 ranked team in the Final AP Poll. Stunned by Boston College in the 2nd Round
1995 Arkansas- Lost to UCLA in the Finals
1997 Kentucky- Lost to Arizona in Overtime of the title game (would have resulted in a 3-peat)
1998 Arizona- Returned entire starting 5. They were a 1 seed in the tournament - but lost to Utah in the E8.
2001 Michigan State- Lost to Arizona in the Final Four
2002 Duke- #1 ranked team in the Final AP Poll. Stunned by Indiana in the Sweet 16
2011 Duke- Earned a 1 seed and had Kyrie Irving back from injury. Ran into a buzzsaw against Arizona in the 2nd half of the Sweet 16.
2014 Louisville- #1 rated KenPom team. They were shockingly given a 4 seed. Upset by UK in the Sweet 16.
2017 Villanova- #1 team in the Final AP Poll. #2 team by KenPom. Upset by Wisconsin in the 2nd Round.
2022 Baylor- Had injury issues, but they were still a feisty bunch - and they were a 1 seed.
But, it's also extremely challenging to win six games in a row. If you replayed every tournament from the past 40 years (same year and same players), I'd be willing to bet more than half of the tournaments would have a different outcome.
There have also been several reigning champions that if the tournament were replayed, some teams very well may have repeated. Here are a few that come to mind
1985 Georgetown - lost to Villanova in the Finals
1991 UNLV - Undefeated and reigning champs. Lost to Duke by 2 in the Final Four
1994 UNC- #1 ranked team in the Final AP Poll. Stunned by Boston College in the 2nd Round
1995 Arkansas- Lost to UCLA in the Finals
1997 Kentucky- Lost to Arizona in Overtime of the title game (would have resulted in a 3-peat)
1998 Arizona- Returned entire starting 5. They were a 1 seed in the tournament - but lost to Utah in the E8.
2001 Michigan State- Lost to Arizona in the Final Four
2002 Duke- #1 ranked team in the Final AP Poll. Stunned by Indiana in the Sweet 16
2011 Duke- Earned a 1 seed and had Kyrie Irving back from injury. Ran into a buzzsaw against Arizona in the 2nd half of the Sweet 16.
2014 Louisville- #1 rated KenPom team. They were shockingly given a 4 seed. Upset by UK in the Sweet 16.
2017 Villanova- #1 team in the Final AP Poll. #2 team by KenPom. Upset by Wisconsin in the 2nd Round.
2022 Baylor- Had injury issues, but they were still a feisty bunch - and they were a 1 seed.
Here's an interesting stat. The first year of the OAD era was in 2007 with Durant and Oden. Florida repeated as champions that same year. Here's how the past 14 champions have fared in their battle to repeat since Florida last did it.
Missed Tournament- 4
('08 Florida, '10 UNC, '13 UK, '15 UConn)
Round of 64- 2
('12 UConn, '21 Virginia)
Round of 32- 4
('17 Villanova, '18 UNC, '19 Villanova, '22 Baylor)
Sweet 16- 4
('09 Kansas, '11 Duke, '14 Louisville, '16 Duke)
Regional Finals & Beyond: 0
I think it's kind of wild that exactly zero of the past 14 champions have reached the Regional Finals. None. Zilch. And yet, 4 of the past 14 champs have missed the tournament altogether. Yeah, I think it's a safe bet- given the current conditions of D1 College Basketball, you will not find any sport that's harder to repeat as champions.
Missed Tournament- 4
('08 Florida, '10 UNC, '13 UK, '15 UConn)
Round of 64- 2
('12 UConn, '21 Virginia)
Round of 32- 4
('17 Villanova, '18 UNC, '19 Villanova, '22 Baylor)
Sweet 16- 4
('09 Kansas, '11 Duke, '14 Louisville, '16 Duke)
Regional Finals & Beyond: 0
I think it's kind of wild that exactly zero of the past 14 champions have reached the Regional Finals. None. Zilch. And yet, 4 of the past 14 champs have missed the tournament altogether. Yeah, I think it's a safe bet- given the current conditions of D1 College Basketball, you will not find any sport that's harder to repeat as champions.
If you were Helms....scratch that. We all agree the best team doesn't win it all. Is that fair?
Can you come up with a list, or anyone, of teams who were clearly better than the field who lost in the NCAAT?
For sure.
Not only randomness of the tourney but college baseball and football guys have to stay at least 3 years. So you get better chance at continuity.
Not only randomness of the tourney but college baseball and football guys have to stay at least 3 years. So you get better chance at continuity.
If each round of the tournament was a 5-game series I'd feel very comfortable saying these teams would have won it all...
'85 Georgetown
'91 UNLV
'97 Kansas
'98 North Carolina
'99 Duke
'11 Ohio State
'15 Kentucky
'19 Duke
That seems pretty fair but my bias says '97 UK. I really feel like UK was the best team that year.
Kansas-Kentucky would have been a good matchup. I know Derek Anderson was injured, but that KU team was crazy dominant. They lost a 3-point game to eventual national champ, Arizona... and they lost to Mizzou by 2 in Double Overtime. That's it. Just can't see them losing in a 5-game series, but that '97 Kentucky team was really solid, too.
I had to look this up, as I didn't know.
Average Margin Per Victory
'96 Kentucky: 22.0
'97 Kentucky: 20.3
The '97 Kentucky team was an outstanding team, and certainly worthy of being a title team. Perhaps the margin between them and Kansas was razor thin. But, I'd still confidently take KU over them in a 5-game series. UK had some blemishes on the season, most notably being swept by South Carolina.
UVA would have definitely made the Regional Finals in 2020 if there was a tournament that year
We really didn't have an opportunity to repeat like these other champs.
UVA would have definitely made the Regional Finals in 2020 if there was a tournament that year
We really didn't have an opportunity to repeat like these other champs.
Hah that's true. Probably not the most talented Virginia team, but you guys certainly finished the season strong. When you have a hot streak like that, it always make you wonder what could have been.
Agreed.
Still kind of hard to believe that Arizona took down three #1 seeds in Kansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky. All 3 of those squads were loaded with talent.
You don't think your 2015 team was great?
I believe they are the only team to beat three number 1 seeds in tournament history. I miss that era of basketball.
i waffle back and forth on the baseball/basketball debate here
I think the edge for me goes to basketball for 2 reasons:
1. the baseball tournament is double elimination each round and allows the higher seeded team home field advantage until CWS. The poorer teams often send up playing 3 games in a very short window. Contrast this with the one and done cruelty of March madness
2. baseball requires 3 years once you begin so it’s easier to plan for the future and bring pitchers along, especially. In the basketball era of one and one there can be gaps in recruiting or experience. Even if a guy has a hot tourney he might bail.
fair....i just think in baseball, having to win two games(CWS final), opposed to just one, is a difficult task...Also,baseball isagane where one dude, the pitcher, basically controls it all....no subs to bring in to switch things up, i.e. i hoops, you can double, switch defenses, etc....
So are you going to answer the question?
2015 Kentucky. Great or not great?
In Little League you have to win about 15 games to even make it to Williamsport where you then face the 15 best Little League teams from around the world.
If you happen to win the tournament in Williamsport it’s usually on the back of a dominant 12 year old pitcher or two being aged out of Little League. The odds of replacing them with just as dominant pitchers the next season is so incredibly low.
If Wooden were coaching today, he wouldn’t bag 10 titles in 12 years. Probably 2.
UCLA says...
On a side note, I just realized that KU’s last three titles all occurred one year after the start of a new era.
88 - year after the 3 point shot was adopted
2008 - year after the OAD era began
2022 - year after the start of NIL
88 - year after the 3 point shot was adopted
2008 - year after the OAD era began
2022 - year after the start of NIL
