Is Duke actually any good?
- Thread starter fpr4_1983
- Start date
I don’t think preseason KenPom is the basis for when people make that statement. It’s generally the polls or just general sports journalist sentiment.
I don’t think KenPom is generally that good until January/February anyway, since it takes some time to gather the appropriate data for the season.
Have they underperformed relative to those other types of expectations? I don’t know. If you’re rated highly every year there will be a lot of misses. Does preseason top 4 mean it’s a failure if you don’t make the final 4? Generally speaking, it’s usually a squishy argument for most programs depending on how you want to judge a season (regular season/conference titles/NCAA Tournament runs).
If I use the current poll + the prior 5 preseason polls, Duke has been in the preseason top 5 just 2 of 6 times.
The 2020 team was a projected 3 seed (and had wins over the ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12 champs) - and the 2024 team went to the Elite 8. Hard to say we fell flat on our face either time.
I’m not disagreeing with you. I think the underperforming argument is kind of dumb anyway. Only when it’s obvious can the claim truly be made, and even then it’s just because people guessed they’d be better and weren’t. That could just be a giant failure on those creating the expectations.
There’s really no great way to accurately measure how good a team should be before they hit the court.
It's been corrupt since at least the 50s. NIL made it less corrupt. But it's out of control and needs to be reined in.
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Hard to gauge, no question. The only real barometer might be for teams that have already been vetted. Teams like Alabama, Kansas, Iowa State, Houston, and Gonzaga should be very disappointed if they don't end up in the top 10. They have talent and continuity.
Duke has talent, but no continuity and relies on a lot of unknowns. Same for UConn, UNC, Arizona, Baylor, Arkansas and a few others.
Knueppel is really, really good. Way better than I was expecting. I wouldn't at all be surprised if he leads the team in scoring.
Yeah. He's for real. He blew up over the summer. And the hype had never really faded. Made the preseason Naismith top 50 watchlist (released today). And Trilly had this interesting remark after the ASU game.
They go hand in hand though. NIL drives a ton of the high profile transfers and I am sure tampering is happening everywhere you look.
That’s fair. But kids being able to go and play in four different places in four years without punishment of some kind is way too messy.
Yep, there has to be a limit. Maybe let them transfer once without penalty, but sit a year if you want to transfer again. Also need something to control NIL, maybe not per player but per program, like a salary cap. Say the max is $5M a year to spend on NIL deals. If you want to dump half of it on one player that's on you, but you'll only have $2.5M left to assemble the rest of your roster. Highly doubt anything like that would happen, but it needs to.
