IF Baylor/Gonzaga goes undefeated

[GE Nole]

Just for an example, let’s say Gonzaga and a random school, I’ll just use Oregon for this case, play two times. Both games are played at Oregon.

What you are essentially saying is that Gonzaga would only win by one or two points more at Oregon if there was no fans vs a sold out, packed arena. And I’m telling you that there’s no way in hell you really believe that. If you do, I can’t help you.

You don’t really get the whole picture of playing on the road in front of crazy fans and kids. Momentum, the crowd affecting calls, players not being able to hear their coach across the court. It isn’t just noise vs no noise.

What I’m telling you is that I used to answer the exact same way you did. And then I talked to dozens of players about it and looked at what Vegas factors in for home court advantages, and then looked at data on home winning percentages.

And the overwhelming response is that yes, fans have some role, but not near as much as people assume, and not near as much as the other two factors I’ve mentioned.

Again, jut sharing what qualitative and quantitative data shows.

 

[JimboBBN]

What I’m telling you is that I used to answer the exact same way you did. And then I talked to dozens of players about it and looked at what Vegas factors in for home court advantages, and then looked at data on home winning percentages.

And the overwhelming response is that yes, fans have some role, but not near as much as people assume, and not near as much as the other two factors I’ve mentioned.

Again, jut sharing what qualitative and quantitative data shows.

So you believe the example I gave you is accurate? Gonzaga only wins by 1 or 2 more at Oregon without fans vs with them?

 

[GE Nole]

So you believe the example I gave you is accurate? Gonzaga only wins by 1 or 2 more at Oregon without fans vs with them?

I don’t know what happens in the outcome. Thousands of statistical possibilities.

However, Vegas would only set the spread 1-2 points differently, yes.

 

[JimboBBN]

I don’t know what happens in the outcome. Thousands of statistical possibilities.

However, Vegas would only set the spread 1-2 points differently, yes.

I believe your data is much more accurate for the average, low level college basketball game. I do not think it is an accurate reflection of the example I have or ones like it. And since we are talking about being undefeated or whether it’s tougher to win this year or not, it is hard for me to take into account games and teams that do not nearly qualify for those categories. That said, I appreciate your input and sharing of information.

 

[GE Nole]

I believe your data is much more accurate for the average, low level college basketball game. I do not think it is an accurate reflection of the example I have or ones like it. And since we are talking about being undefeated or whether it’s tougher to win this year or not, it is hard for me to take into account games and teams that do not nearly qualify for those categories. That said, I appreciate your input and sharing of information.

Fair enough.

FWIW, the players I asked this direct question to were at programs like Duke, UF, UNC, NC State, Syracuse, and FSU (which may have the best home court advantage of anyone in college basketball). So these were guys who were used to playing in extremely loud, packed arenas, both at home and on the road.

And the Vegas/KenPom numbers built in for home court advantage do have some slight variance, but no home arena in the country is given more than 4.5 points.

 

[IUfanBorden]

Take the name Kentucky out of the equation. Do bottom feeders from the Big 12 or WAC get up to play the number one and number two teams in the county? Of course they do.

Home fans make a huge difference, brother...It evens out. YOu don't think it was easier for Richmond to beat UK, w/o 23,000 fans? Rather its UK vs UNC @ Rupp, or Richmond, when the home teams in trouble, making a run, great play, the place gets going...

Home teams have impacted probably MORE than a road team.

Weird year---But a very difficult year. I'd argue winning a title under these conditions, might be as tough as winning the damn thing in a normal setting.

 

[JimboBBN]

Home fans make a huge difference, brother...It evens out. YOu don't think it was easier for Richmond to beat UK, w/o 23,000 fans? Rather its UK vs UNC @ Rupp, or Richmond, when the home teams in trouble, making a run, great play, the place gets going...

Home teams have impacted probably MORE than a road team.

Weird year---But a very difficult year. I'd argue winning a title under these conditions, might be as tough as winning the damn thing in a normal setting.

I will give you that certain aspects are tougher this year. I’ll say this then leave it alone, you guys have to be sick of me posting itt at this point.

As far as going undefeated.. this year is absolutely the year to do it. We are focusing on the elite of the elite as far as teams, remember that. So, with fans, there is no question that the biggest bump in the road for a perfect season, before you get to at least the elite eight or maybe final four, is any road game. You can agree with me on this, correct? The best of the best teams likely win at home or on neutral most of the time, but a hostile road environment can throw a lot of wrenches into beating even decent teams on the road.

Without fans, you take away the single biggest threat to any great team winning, and that is getting gut punched on the road in front of 15,000 screaming, drunk fans. It may be a tad harder to win at home, but again, we are talking about the elite teams in the country, who would win on a neutral court more times than not regardless.

If Gonzaga goes on the road to Oregon, the atmosphere would be insanely different than if Oregon went to Gonzaga. With fans, obviously. Having fans in the seats helps the underdog 100x more playing at home than it does a big favorite. Not even debatable.

Let’s also not forget that the teams in the tournament this year will have to travel absolutely nowhere.

 

[GE Nole]

Without fans, you take away the single biggest threat to any great team winning, and that is getting gut punched on the road in front of 15,000 screaming, drunk fans.

I agree with you that by far the most likely place for a great team to lose is on the road. But what you wrote above is where I continue to disagree. And it’s where essentially every player I’ve ever spoken to disagrees as well. The fans just aren’t the biggest factor.

Again, look no further than this year. Most places have little to no fans. And among the elite teams this year, the vast majority of losses have occurred on the road. Without 15,000 screaming, drunk fans.

The single biggest benefit Gonzaga and Baylor have had this year was having the Baylor/Gonzaga game canceled. Just doing that one game guarantees there’s at most only one undefeated going into the tourney.

 

[IUfanBorden]

I will give you that certain aspects are tougher this year. I’ll say this then leave it alone, you guys have to be sick of me posting itt at this point.

As far as going undefeated.. this year is absolutely the year to do it. We are focusing on the elite of the elite as far as teams, remember that. So, with fans, there is no question that the biggest bump in the road for a perfect season, before you get to at least the elite eight or maybe final four, is any road game. You can agree with me on this, correct? The best of the best teams likely win at home or on neutral most of the time, but a hostile road environment can throw a lot of wrenches into beating even decent teams on the road.

Without fans, you take away the single biggest threat to any great team winning, and that is getting gut punched on the road in front of 15,000 screaming, drunk fans. It may be a tad harder to win at home, but again, we are talking about the elite teams in the country, who would win on a neutral court more times than not regardless.

If Gonzaga goes on the road to Oregon, the atmosphere would be insanely different than if Oregon went to Gonzaga. With fans, obviously. Having fans in the seats helps the underdog 100x more playing at home than it does a big favorite. Not even debatable.

Let’s also not forget that the teams in the tournament this year will have to travel absolutely nowhere.

I agree. Gonzaga @ Oregon, with fans is tough. And the probability of losing certainly is greater...

BUT----Gonzaga at home vs St, Mary's, is about the same IMO. No home fans. No energy. No buzz. Nothing. Crickets. Say GU comes out flat---down 12 at half....Still down 12 with 4 minutes to go---Get a steal, dunk....SMU misses at the other end---3 ball from Suggs. Suddenly, a 12 point game, is 7....

Crowd is going nuts...


That is, at home, in their living room.

IMO, it pretty much evens out.

 

[sgrooms]

I agree. Gonzaga @ Oregon, with fans is tough. And the probability of losing certainly is greater...

BUT----Gonzaga at home vs St, Mary's, is about the same IMO. No home fans. No energy. No buzz. Nothing. Crickets. Say GU comes out flat---down 12 at half....Still down 12 with 4 minutes to go---Get a steal, dunk....SMU misses at the other end---3 ball from Suggs. Suddenly, a 12 point game, is 7....

Crowd is going nuts...


That is, at home, in their living room.

IMO, it pretty much evens out.

Serious question: how do you decide if the pause calls for a comma, ellipses, or dashes?

 

[IUfanBorden]

Serious question: how do you decide if the pause calls for a comma, ellipses, or dashes?

Why----Is there a test tomorrow?

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Just for an example, let’s say Gonzaga and a random school, I’ll just use Oregon for this case, play two times. Both games are played at Oregon.

What you are essentially saying is that Gonzaga would only win by one or two points more at Oregon if there was no fans vs a sold out, packed arena. And I’m telling you that there’s no way in hell you really believe that. If you do, I can’t help you.

You don’t really get the whole picture of playing on the road in front of crazy fans and kids. Momentum, the crowd affecting calls, players not being able to hear their coach across the court. It isn’t just noise vs no noise.

Not everyone gets it. There's only one #1 and I why would we apologized for telling our struggles. Ppl doesn't care enough about beating #259 all time.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Why----Is there a test tomorrow?

It's a daily struggle here as well.

 

[sgrooms]

Why----Is there a test tomorrow?

I meant you, specifically. Not the general you.

 

[IUfanBorden]

I meant you, specifically. Not the general you.

TBH...I just type the way I am speaking/hearing it in my head. In other words, if I pause, as I would if we were talking---I type it that way.

Make sense?

 

[lurkeraspect84]

I have polka songs in my head, I try and think over them. That's why I seem to get excited, It's just Polka.

 

[sgrooms]

TBH...I just type the way I am speaking/hearing it in my head. In other words, if I pause, as I would if we were talking---I type it that way.

Make sense?

No, but that's OK.