dukedevilz Preseason Top 50

[dukedevilz]

Hopefully a reasonably accurate preseason top 50. Which teams do you think I overvalued and undervalued?

FWIW, I got these rosters from the Three Man Weave. The top 50 ranking is mine. I believe they initially made these in the summer (might be missing some international players). I don't agree with quite a few of starting lineups and first guys off the bench. But, it's a pretty good overview of the top teams.

1. Alabama

2. Houston

3. Duke

4. Iowa State

5. Kansas

6. UConn

7. Gonzaga

8. Baylor

9. Arkansas

10. North Carolina

11. Arizona

12. Purdue

13. Indiana

14. Kentucky

15. St. John's

16. Texas Tech

17. Auburn

18. Creighton

19. Illinois

20. Tennessee

 

[dukedevilz]

21. Xavier

22. Texas A&M

23. Cincinnati

24. Florida

25. Wake Forest

26. BYU

27. Oregon

28. Marquette

29. UCLA

30. Louisville

31. Michigan

32. Texas

33. Ohio State

34. Ole Miss

35. Michigan State

36. Mississippi State

37. Kansas State

38. Pittsburgh

39. Rutgers

40. Clemson

 

[dukedevilz]

41. VCU

42. Miami

43. Providence

44. Boise State

45. SMU

46. Maryland

47. Saint Mary's

48. Villanova

49. Memphis

50. Grand Canyon

 

[CB3UK]

Louisville ranked below Kentucky?

Ranking is valid and cannot be questioned.

 

[dukedevilz]

Louisville ranked below Kentucky?

Ranking is valid and cannot be questioned.

It can be questioned. Two completely different rosters. I like the actions that Pope runs. Very hard to guard - and with several talented shooters, teams are going to struggle trying to account for all the weapons. But, with absolutely zero continuity, who knows what these teams will even look like?

Louisville, at least on paper, looks like a tournament team. Would not be surprised at all to see them crack the top 25. i do like Kentucky's upside a little more, though.

 

[boilerzz]

On initial blush:

Arkansas too high

Auburn and Creighton too low

 

[kyjeff1]

@dukedevilz , you put in some serious work here, even posted the rosters for each team, wow, impressive.
You have KY higher than I do. I think 23 is about right.

The teapot and Della are going to have issues with this for sure.

 

[CB3UK]

It can be questioned. Two completely different rosters. I like the actions that Pope runs. Very hard to guard - and with several talented shooters, teams are going to struggle trying to account for all the weapons. But, with absolutely zero continuity, who knows what these teams will even look like?

Louisville, at least on paper, looks like a tournament team. Would not be surprised at all to see them crack the top 25. i do like Kentucky's upside a little more, though.

Relax. We're just hear to shit talk Louisville.

 

[AWilli6995]

Appreciate the time and effort you put in in all you do here but UNC is way to high in my opinion.

I think rebounding will be our weakness going into the season.

 

[dukedevilz]

On initial blush:

Arkansas too high

Auburn and Creighton too low

I think my rankings on those 3 schools are certainly an aberration from a typical pollster.

I think Arkansas has one of the best backcourts in the country. I'm more willing to believe in a super strong backcourt because those teams consistently win in March.

Creighton scares me a little with the shooting of Jamiya Neal and Pop Isaacs. I've heard Fedor Zugic is a stud, though. So, maybe he can compensate for whatever deficiencies there might be with spacing. I love Isaacs, outside of the shooting. Don't feel great about Neal, though.

I think I'd like Auburn more if Pearl played his best players more. Broome and Baker-Mazara should be averaging 30 minutes a night. Also, not sure about the transition of JP Pegues. Will he be an elite guard in the SEC? Maybe... Auburn and Creighton both have top 10 potential, without question. But, there are holes to pick at, too.

 

[dukedevilz]

@dukedevilz , you put in some serious work here, even posted the rosters for each team, wow, impressive.
You have KY higher than I do. I think 23 is about right.

The teapot and Della are going to have issues with this for sure.

I initially thought Lanier and Dubar were going to be studs. Now, I'm beginning to question that. Those two were supposed to be reliable bucket-getters. If they're not double-digit scorers, Tennessee could struggle mightily to score.

 

[boilerzz]

I think my rankings on those 3 schools are certainly an aberration from a typical poster.

I think Arkansas has one of the best backcourts in the country. I'm more willing to believe in a super strong backcourt because those teams consistently win in March.

Creighton scares me a little with the shooting of Jamiya Neal and Pop Isaacs. I've heard Fedor Zugic is a stud, though. So, maybe he can compensate for whatever deficiencies there might be with spacing. I love Isaacs, outside of the shooting. Don't feel great about Neal, though.

I think I'd like Auburn more if Pearl played his best players more. Broome and Baker-Mazara should be averaging 30 minutes a night. Also, not sure about the transition of JP Pegues. Will he be an elite guard in the SEC? Maybe... Auburn and Creighton both have top 10 potential, without question. But, there are holes to pick at, too.

So you're saying I shouldn't take Pegues with my last pick?

 

[WeAreDePaul]

41. VCU

42. Miami

43. Providence

44. Boise State

45. SMU

46. Maryland

47. Saint Mary's

48. Villanova

49. Memphis

50. Grand Canyon

I liked it, but I also reported it for the lack of DePaul.



I think Duke is very overrated. Unless Flagg is the second coming I still see a team with the worst point guard in the top 10. And they are starting a lanky raw freshman center. I'm not buying it, definitely not that high in the poll.

 

[dukedevilz]

Relax. We're just hear to shit talk Louisville.

Haha I like it.

Appreciate the time and effort you put in in all you do here but UNC is way to high in my opinion.

I think rebounding will be our weakness going into the season.

Similar to Arkansas, I trust more in a very elite backcourt. The frontcourt is worrisome, though. You guys are going to be undersized, so second-chance opportunities won't be as frequent as your prototypical UNC team. Going to have to rebound by committee. But, I still really, really like UNC's backcourt.

 

[dukedevilz]

So you're saying I shouldn't take Pegues with my last pick?

I like Chad Baker-Mazera more, personally. I could be wrong. I would like Baker-Mazera to get more than 22 minutes a night, though.

 

[dukedevilz]

I liked it, but I also reported it for the lack of DePaul.



I think Duke is very overrated. Unless Flagg is the second coming I still see a team with the worst point guard in the top 10. And they are starting a lanky raw freshman center. I'm not buying it, definitely not that high in the poll.

Haha you drafted Flagg #2 overall. Are you already having regrets? Don't expect Flagg to score 20 a night. That's not his game. He can score, yes, but he's not a high-volume shooter. He is super versatile and can fill up the stat sheet. I wouldn't be surprised if someone other than Flagg leads the team in scoring.

Duke isn't having 1 guy bringing the ball up the court every time. We have 4 guys who can grab the rebound and initiate the offense. Knueppel and Flagg can both facilitate like a guard. Also, Duke's defense should be elite this year. Flagg/Maluach is likely the best shot-blocking duo in the country.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

Haha you drafted Flagg #2 overall. Are you already having regrets? Don't expect Flagg to score 20 a night. That's not his game. He can score, yes, but he's not a high-volume shooter. He is super versatile and can fill up the stat sheet. I wouldn't be surprised if someone other than Flagg leads the team in scoring.

Duke isn't having 1 guy bringing the ball up the court every time. We have 4 guys who can grab the rebound and initiate the offense. Knueppel and Flagg can both facilitate like a guard. Also, Duke's defense should be elite this year. Flagg/Maluach is likely the best shot-blocking duo in the country.

Im not buying "point guard by committee" as a winning formula for high level CBB.

Love Flagg, no regerts, but like you said his game is more about excelling at all the little things that help you win vs being a big time scorer.

Proctor sucks and down the road Duke will have to face a reckoning about that.

 

[rockycard]

Louisville ranked below Kentucky?

Ranking is valid and cannot be questioned.

Louisville has 119.6 to Kentucky’s 106.2 in point production from last season 😉

 

[Blueheart32]

Why do so many have the stance that Duke is only a contender if Flagg has a phenomenal year? That roster is Stacked. They beat ASU by 56 with Flagg scoring 9 points. Granted ASU is not that good, at all, but held them to 47? The defense should be elite, There are at least 6 guys that can hurt you from the arc, the transfers they brought in are all solid. One was an all defensive team guy and one a 6th man award winner. This team is deep, and the sportsbooks who makes billions every year by knowing more than the average fan holds them in very high regard. There's going to be some very disappointed haters this year.

 

[kyjeff1]

I initially thought Lanier and Dubar were going to be studs. Now, I'm beginning to question that. Those two were supposed to be reliable bucket-getters. If they're not double-digit scorers, Tennessee could struggle mightily to score.

Yeah, I think UT is really going to struggle to replace the guys they lost. I think Lanier is better than what he showed against IU, but he won’t completely fill Dalton Knecht's shoes.

Also, losing Vescovi and Jordan-James will make the rebuilding job even more difficult.

I think their defense will be stout, always is under Barnes, but they need a couple guys to be elite on offense. I think Lanier will be one, not sure who the other will be.

 

[kyjeff1]

Why do so many have the stance that Duke is only a contender if Flagg has a phenomenal year? That roster is Stacked. They beat ASU by 56 with Flagg scoring 9 points. Granted ASU is not that good, at all, but held them to 47? The defense should be elite, There are at least 6 guys that can hurt you from the arc, the transfers they brought in are all solid. One was an all defensive team guy and one a 6th man award winner. This team is deep, and the sportsbooks who makes billions every year by knowing more than the average fan holds them in very high regard. There's going to be some very disappointed haters this year.

I think it's one of those things where if you're going to be young, you really need an elite pg and at least one of those freshmen needs to be ultra elite.

The modern college game is so physical and spread out, like Jay Wright said, most freshmen aren't disciplined enough or physically developed enough to win consistently at this level. He said "those days are over".

But, eventually someone will break through and prove that wrong. Could be this duke team.

I'm expecting Duke to hit all their shots and turn UK over 20 times on 11/12, so you won't see me shitting on them.

 

[kyjeff1]

Louisville has 119.6 to Kentucky’s 106.2 in point production from last season 😉

Dollar?

 

[ThePhog08]

I think the transfer portal has truly made it very difficult to predict anything pre season.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

Why do so many have the stance that Duke is only a contender if Flagg has a phenomenal year? That roster is Stacked. They beat ASU by 56 with Flagg scoring 9 points. Granted ASU is not that good, at all, but held them to 47? The defense should be elite, There are at least 6 guys that can hurt you from the arc, the transfers they brought in are all solid. One was an all defensive team guy and one a 6th man award winner. This team is deep, and the sportsbooks who makes billions every year by knowing more than the average fan holds them in very high regard. There's going to be some very disappointed haters this year.

how many elite, F4 quality teams don't have a great point guard? It's the most important position in CBB. Always has been.

 

[rockycard]

Dollar?

If you live in Louisville I will bet you a beer on the football and basketball game.

 

[kyjeff1]

If you live in Louisville I will bet you a beer on the football and basketball game.

Or, you can venmo me. 😁

 

[dukedevilz]

Im not buying "point guard by committee" as a winning formula for high level CBB.

Love Flagg, no regerts, but like you said his game is more about excelling at all the little things that help you win vs being a big time scorer.

Proctor sucks and down the road Duke will have to face a reckoning about that.

Proctor is still a good point guard. He does well in PnR, he can facilitate, good shooter, and he can defend. Biggest knock on him is he's not the best at driving to the basket and beating his man off the dribble.

We'll likely have 4 guys averaging between 3-5 assists per game. Top 5 defense - and top 10 offense. That's a title contender.

Yeah, I think UT is really going to struggle to replace the guys they lost. I think Lanier is better than what he showed against IU, but he won’t completely fill Dalton Knecht's shoes.

Also, losing Vescovi and Jordan-James will make the rebuilding job even more difficult.

I think their defense will be stout, always is under Barnes, but they need a couple guys to be elite on offense. I think Lanier will be one, not sure who the other will be.

Lanier will be okay. I was initially thinking he'd be an all-conference caliber player. I think he will average double-figures, but more like 11-13 ppg, as opposed to an obvious go-to scorer of 16+ ppg. Not sure what type of role Dubar will have. Offense is going to be very questionable. Might be similar to the 2023 team. Top 5 defense and sub-50 offense.

 

[mtsuhog85]

On initial blush:

Arkansas too high

Auburn and Creighton too low

No Homer, but this Arkansas team is legit. Probably the best backcourt in CBB when Davis gets healthy.

Complete different team from last year. Kansas lasted about 8 mins, before the game was out of hand.

 

[Blueheart32]

how many elite, F4 quality teams don't have a great point guard? It's the most important position in CBB. Always has been.

I guess where our opinion differs is I think Proctor is a better player than you do. You said he sucks, I couldn't disagree more. Is he one of the best 4 in the country? No, I wouldn't say that, but I believe he is more than capable to help get this team, with all the options and talent that is has, to the final 4.

 

[boilerzz]

No Homer, but this Arkansas team is legit. Probably the best backcourt in CBB when Davis gets healthy.

Complete different team from last year. Kansas lasted about 8 mins, before the game was out of hand.

Oh I think they can be legit and still be lower than #9 in the country. I think there are questions on the front line (Aidoo doesn't impress me and we saw him twice last year) and in terms of game management, Calipari is mediocre. Great recruiter, mediocre in game.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

No Homer, but this Arkansas team is legit. Probably the best backcourt in CBB when Davis gets healthy.

Complete different team from last year. Kansas lasted about 8 mins, before the game was out of hand.

Uhm wtf is wrong with Davis???? I drafted him.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

Hopefully a reasonably accurate preseason top 50. Which teams do you think I overvalued and undervalued?

FWIW, I got these rosters from the Three Man Weave. The top 50 ranking is mine. I believe they initially made these in the summer (might be missing some international players). I don't agree with quite a few of starting lineups and first guys off the bench. But, it's a pretty good overview of the top teams.

1. Alabama

2. Houston

3. Duke

4. Iowa State

5. Kansas

6. UConn

7. Gonzaga

8. Baylor

9. Arkansas

10. North Carolina

11. Arizona

12. Purdue

13. Indiana

14. Kentucky

15. St. John's

16. Texas Tech

17. Auburn

18. Creighton

19. Illinois

20. Tennessee

Duke is a big team. I also didn't realize they only have 2 returning players.

And for Arkansas, Adou Thiero also transferred from Kentucky

 

[Kevin Bryan]