Could the ACC get 3 No. 1 seeds?

[dukedevilz]

They have even less of a resume than Gonzaga. Can't reward them when their only good win is LSU who was mediocre at the time.

Only good win? GTFOH. They were down 71-69 against Temple and Corey Davis made a basket with seconds left that would have tied it, but they called a charge. One charge is the only thing separating them from a perfect season. And let's not forget...

4-1 in Quad 1 Games
14-1 in Quad 1/2 Games.
5 wins verse the top 50
#4 in the NCAA Net Rankings
beat Oregon with a healthy Bol Bol

 

[jhmossy]

Let's say Duke goes into that game at 27-3, lose but then win the ACCT. You're taking a 30-4 team off of your one line?

UVA was 29-3 in 2015 and they got a 2 seed.

 

[LetsGoDuke301]

UVA was 29-3 in 2015 and they got a 2 seed.

Circumstances.

 

[dukedevilz]

UVA was 29-3 in 2015 and they got a 2 seed.

2015 was an unusually loaded with stacked teams. The only other year that would be comparable is 2008. And interesting enough, seven of the eight 1-seeds in 2008/2015 made the Final Four. Typically speaking, a 4-loss team from a power conference would almost always get a 1 seed.

2015
1 seeds:
Kentucky, 34-0
Wisconsin, 31-3
Duke, 29-4 (not a gaudy record, but had 5 road wins against top 20 teams)
Villanova, 32-2
2 seeds:
Arizona, 31-3
Virginia, 29-3
Gonzaga, 32-2

I mean, you had 7 schools that would all be 1 seeds in a typical year.

Here's a saved file I have, which shows the number of average losses by a 1 seed since 2008 (I removed Gonzaga and Wichita State from the averages, as they obviously didn't have similar battle-tested schedules).

2018: 4.50
2017: 4.67
2016: 5.75
2015: 2.25
2014: 4
2013: 5.33
2012: 4
2011: 3.25
2010: 3.25
2009: 4.25
2008: 2.25

 

[WeAreDePaul]

UNC has looked very, very good in their wins over Duke and Gonzaga. However, I would note that neither opposing team was playing fully healthy. But I'm not going to lie, they are a very real threat to win it all. I don't think they're in the same tier as say Duke, Virginia, or Kentucky - but they're certainly up there.

One thing that might hold UNC back a little bit from a 1 seed, is their record vs. Quad 1 teams. Even with recent wins over Duke and FSU, it's still not overly impressive. Here is a breakdown of the top 16 teams (top 16 comes from CBS Bracketology) with their Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. UNC is 13th out 16 in terms of highest winning percentage. If they win out, obviously they're a #1 seed, but they still have a bit of work to do.

Looks like LSU is headed to a #1 seed if they win out and win the conference tournament. No argument for KY or TN over them if that happens.

 

[dukedevilz]

Looks like LSU is headed to a #1 seed if they win out and win the conference tournament. No argument for KY or TN over them if that happens.

I would say that's very likely. CBS currently has LSU #9 on their S Curve. But yes, add 7 wins and I would think they would be the highest ranked team from the SEC. Their margin for error is a little lower, though, with those 3 OOC losses. But, if they go 29-5 to close the season, I don't see why they couldn't be a #1 seed.

 

[Connecticut Wildcat]

Give them all 3 1 seeds. Just give UK the 2 in the south

 

[dragonhawk1855]

my #1 seeds
Duke East
MSU Mid West region
LSU South
Gonzaga West region

 

[jhmossy]

my #1 seeds
Duke East
MSU Mid West region
LSU South
Gonzaga West region

Yikes

 

[BeerPoisoning]

Possible, but not likely. Only 1 way it happens...

Virginia: Wins out regular season, make it to ACC championship game and loses.

Duke / UNC: Wins out regular season until their last game match up. Loser of match up wins ACC tournament.

 

[GE Nole]

my #1 seeds
Duke East
MSU Mid West region
LSU South
Gonzaga West region

LSU?

 

[dukedevilz]

LSU?

Possible, but not extremely likely. LSU would most likely have to win out. Currently, they're #9 on CBS's S Curve. If they win 7 more games, they would almost certainly pass Kentucky and Tennessee (SEC Reg Season Champs/ Conf. Tournament Champs).... and they'd very likely pass Michigan and Michigan State, too (I think both teams lose at least 1 more). The 1 seeds in this hypothetical would be 2 ACC Teams, SEC Champ, and Gonzaga. UNC is the most likely ACC team to fall behind LSU, but I think they would have to lose more than once (Duke+ ACC Tournament, perhaps, so that's possible).

 

[dragonhawk1855]

don't see who MSU loses to in their last regular season games,

LSU is more of a long shot but they are playing very well. at this time of the year anybody close to the top 10 can get hot and move up.

gotta have a wild card this time of year and LSU is mine.