Illinois State has 2 Out-of-Conference wins against P5 Schools, which is actually one more than Nebraska has.
Bubble teams?
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Illinois State has 2 Out-of-Conference wins against P5 Schools, which is actually one more than Nebraska has.
They played two games this season against power five teams. @ USCjr and @ Ole Miss. They won both.
They would probably have a better record if they were in the Big 10 though.
Getting back to the thread, these are the team's on Joe Lunardi's bubble, for the sake of argument we will use this as Gospel and this is what is required from each team to punch their ticket.
Last 4 Byes
KSU - Should be in regardless of what happens at Big 12 Tournament. More than 2 bid stealers and they will sweat with a loss.
St. Mary's - Regular season over. More than 2 bid stealers and they will start to sweat
Providence - Need to beat Creighton to secure their spot, probably still in unless bid stealers shake up the picture
Baylor - Need to beat WVU to secure their spot, probably still in unless bid stealers shake up the picture.
Last 4 In
Texas - Need to beat oSu or probably out. If they beat oSu, they will need to also beat KU to lock themselves in.
USC - Cannot be upset in their first game. Must win 2 (against probably UCLA in game 2) to lock themselves in.
UCLA - Cannot be upset in their first game. Must win 2 (against probably USC in game 2) to lock themselves in.
Alabama - Cannot lose to Texas A&M, must win 2 to lock themselves in.
First Four Out
Louisville - Must beat FSU to stay alive, must beat UVA to play themselves over the teams in front of them.
Marquette - Must beat DePaul and Villanova to play themselves over the teams in front of them, I dont see any other way.
Oklahoma State - They have to beat Texas and probably Kansas, that would put them into Texas's spot in the pecking order.
Notre Dame - They have to beat Pitt, VT and probably also Duke to get on the right side of the bubble.
Next Four Out
Syracuse - Will need to beat Wake, and UNC to claw into consideration, and probably also Miami to get to the right side of the bubble.
Penn State - Regular season over. If everyone in the first four out and some of the last four in flop, the door opens.
Boise State - They have to win their conference tournament since there is no chance they can get a quality win before the final.
Nebraska - Regular season over. There is basically no chance for them.
Last 4 Byes
KSU - Should be in regardless of what happens at Big 12 Tournament. More than 2 bid stealers and they will sweat with a loss.
St. Mary's - Regular season over. More than 2 bid stealers and they will start to sweat
Providence - Need to beat Creighton to secure their spot, probably still in unless bid stealers shake up the picture
Baylor - Need to beat WVU to secure their spot, probably still in unless bid stealers shake up the picture.
Last 4 In
Texas - Need to beat oSu or probably out. If they beat oSu, they will need to also beat KU to lock themselves in.
USC - Cannot be upset in their first game. Must win 2 (against probably UCLA in game 2) to lock themselves in.
UCLA - Cannot be upset in their first game. Must win 2 (against probably USC in game 2) to lock themselves in.
Alabama - Cannot lose to Texas A&M, must win 2 to lock themselves in.
First Four Out
Louisville - Must beat FSU to stay alive, must beat UVA to play themselves over the teams in front of them.
Marquette - Must beat DePaul and Villanova to play themselves over the teams in front of them, I dont see any other way.
Oklahoma State - They have to beat Texas and probably Kansas, that would put them into Texas's spot in the pecking order.
Notre Dame - They have to beat Pitt, VT and probably also Duke to get on the right side of the bubble.
Next Four Out
Syracuse - Will need to beat Wake, and UNC to claw into consideration, and probably also Miami to get to the right side of the bubble.
Penn State - Regular season over. If everyone in the first four out and some of the last four in flop, the door opens.
Boise State - They have to win their conference tournament since there is no chance they can get a quality win before the final.
Nebraska - Regular season over. There is basically no chance for them.
Texas is playing Iowa State (winner plays Tech) and we get the two Oklahomas playing each other (winner plays Kansas). Just a heads up
Who are the 'mid major' conference teams that would still get a bid even after losing in their conference tournament? Or who are the bubble teams cheering for in the their conference tourneys:
Gonzaga
Nevada
Houston/Cincy/Wichita
Rhode Island/St. Bonaventure
Middle Tennessee?
Arizona
Any others?
Gonzaga
Nevada
Houston/Cincy/Wichita
Rhode Island/St. Bonaventure
Middle Tennessee?
Arizona
Any others?
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Considering all the PAC teams on the bubble...I'd be pulling hard for Arizona.
Lunardi and ESPN like to tout his impeccable accuracy. Which is certainly impressive, but why does his accuracy account for the 32 automatic qualifiers? With 90 seconds of research, Betty White could get those same 32 teams.
Lunardi is ranked somewhere in the 40s for his accuracy over the last 3 years in aggregate over on Bracketmatrix.com.
Come on now, the AAC isn't mid-major in basketball. Those top 3 teams, plus traditionally strong programs like Temple, UConn, and Memphis make that league pretty solid.
The rest, though, looks spot on.
Oh no, all I mean is an at large bid will be gone if none of those three win the American tournament. I'm making the assumption that acc, big 12, sec and big East winners would be at large bids anyway. I guess I didn't need to list the American though
True, but crazy to think Uconn will only have 1 tourney bid in the last four years- have Memphis been in it during that time period?
Honestly, I was really just trying to make a crack on the Pac-12. You said "mid major" conferences and listed Arizona. Then I disagreed with AAC--but didn't mention Arizona--so I thought it would be a "dig by omission."
They beat Minnesota when Minny was at full strength and #12 in the country. PSU is a good team. Their overall record is down because of having key players missing early in the season. The others I'll give to you, but every conference has bottom dwellers. They lost by 19 in one game to the team that won the B10 tournament. That same team they beat by 20 earlier in the year.
Yeah realized that after posting. I was taking someone else's cue on that, which I don't usually do and will probably not do again.
Look at Nebraska’s Kenpom rank and get back to me
EDIT: Looked up their ranks here you go
249
184
236
320
186
Conference (Part 1)
74
115
NCON(Part 2)
177
350
314
Conference(Part 2)
89
76
103
9
135
91
76
115
135
46
78
29
Their 3rd best win on the year is Maryland. For fvcks sake we were terrible this year and we had 2 of our starting 5 out. They beat the 2nd worst team Delaware State by 4 points.
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Not disputing your point. Unfortunately, the B1G being perceived down and only getting 1 of the top 4 teams at home really hurt Nebraska. Nebraska is really good in Lincoln and would have had a great chance to win at home against anyone not named Michigan State. Can only beat the teams on the schedule and the conference schedule we were given wasn't great.
The loss to UCF in the holiday tourney (on their court) was the biggest problem. We would have had Missouri and West Virginia had we won....instead we got Marist and Long Beach St. Other than that, the non con wasn't that bad with scheduled games against Kansas, Boston College, and at Creighton.
Your last statement about Delaware State is wrong. Final score was 85-68.
Your non conference was pretty much trash. You are correct though, got the wrong score for Delaware State.
Those are the wins yes? If so, it looks much better than RPI. 14 quad 1 and 2 wins.
Just as a comparison, Purdue has a really good resume this year and will probably be a 2 seed. In the RPI quadrant system, Purdue has 11 quad 1 and 2 wins.
Oh my bad, I didn’t know you were ******ed.
Unfortunately the committee doesnt look into things that deep, the reality is Minny by end of season was a garbage win. PSU by season's end was a decent win but still not a quality win. Ive already seen WVU go through this exact scenario as Nebraska is currently going through, in 2006/07 we had 22 wins a winning record in the Big East but only 2 quality wins, and one was against a UCLA team that didnt have Darren Collison, both wins were at home. We also beat UConn when they were at the time the #9 team in the country, but they finished with a barely .500 record which ruined that win. The Big East also had a "down" year that season which hurt us. We had our lack of big wins outside of Morgantown used against us and we were sent to the NIT and it wasnt really a surprise to anyone outside of homers in WV, pretty much every bracketologist forecasted it. Nebraska should take the NIT seriously and try to win it rather than pout and be one of the early exit teams that dont show up, they should also schedule smarter now that they know they have a team capable of getting to the NCAA tournament. The NIT was a nice springboard for our program at the time and the next season we made the Sweet 16 and I would like to think our postseason NIT experience helped us spring an upset over Duke that next year. Not sure how young the team is, but at the time our team was primarily freshmen and sophmores.
Substitute Nebraska's name and insert Vermont, South Dakota, or Louisiana Lafeyete in its place. How does Vermont's resume sound using the results of Nebraska? The Committee wouldn't think twice about it.
Wins: 22
Losses: 10
Sub-150 wins: 15
RPI Top 50: 1-6
RPI Top 100: 4-9
RPI Top 150: 7-9
Quad 1: 1-6
Quad 2: 2-3
Wins: 22
Losses: 10
Sub-150 wins: 15
RPI Top 50: 1-6
RPI Top 100: 4-9
RPI Top 150: 7-9
Quad 1: 1-6
Quad 2: 2-3
There's been multiple interviews and articles with the committee chair this year saying explicitly that they consider the health of opponents when factoring wins. They used Nebraska over Minnesota as their actual example.
anon_0astpxev9h4gk
Well-Known Member
Well see, I think its lip service, Ive seen this process play out too many times to believe these guys put any type of critical thinking behind it.
If Okie State gets in, I think they kick out Texas. It's not fair, but they aren't putting 9 Big 12 teams in. Especially if the have an excuse like "unsure on Mo Bamba's health" built in.
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