Bart Torvik's preseason rankings...
- Thread starter AuHoosier420
- Start date
@dukedevilz the Duke fanbase like to cite Torvik all the time. Explain this. This is perhaps the worst preseason top 25 I have ever seen based on actual results
Here? I’m not saying it’s not happened, it’s a genuine question. I can only recall ever seeing @ExitFlagger (I think) reference it here
Few folks on here have cited Torvik. I'm sure I have a few times, but I'd say KenPom is the more trusted analytic tool.
I don't know what Torvik's methodology is, I always thought he was aggregating recruiting rankings mixed with experience levels. Clearly there's some flaw in this if he has Virginia at #4 - and leaves out several notable top teams.
I will say, however, that his preseason projections look quite reasonable. He had St. John's at #16, when they were not ranked in the preseason polls. He had KU and Alabama at 4 and 9, when most polls had them at #1 and #2... So yeah, not sure how the "most talented rosters" is measured, but his preseason projections are more than reasonable, IMO.
To be fair this is purely to do with talent and not chemistry. However it's still clearly wrong how he has UVA at 4 is mind blowing
Yeah pretty ballzy call on St. Johns in the preseason.Few folks on here have cited Torvik. I'm sure I have a few times, but I'd say KenPom is the more trusted analytic tool.
I don't know what Torvik's methodology is, I always thought he was aggregating recruiting rankings mixed with experience levels. Clearly there's some flaw in this if he has Virginia at #4 - and leaves out several notable top teams.
I will say, however, that his preseason projections look quite reasonable. He had St. John's at #16, when they were not ranked in the preseason polls. He had KU and Alabama at 4 and 9, when most polls had them at #1 and #2... So yeah, not sure how the "most talented rosters" is measured, but his preseason projections are more than reasonable, IMO.
Talent is going to be much harder to realize with the crazy transfer portal. Solid old guys are going to win vs "talented" freshman for the most part save the very very top guys.Few folks on here have cited Torvik. I'm sure I have a few times, but I'd say KenPom is the more trusted analytic tool.
I don't know what Torvik's methodology is, I always thought he was aggregating recruiting rankings mixed with experience levels. Clearly there's some flaw in this if he has Virginia at #4 - and leaves out several notable top teams.
I will say, however, that his preseason projections look quite reasonable. He had St. John's at #16, when they were not ranked in the preseason polls. He had KU and Alabama at 4 and 9, when most polls had them at #1 and #2... So yeah, not sure how the "most talented rosters" is measured, but his preseason projections are more than reasonable, IMO.
I will say, however, that his preseason projections look quite reasonable. He had St. John's at #16, when they were not ranked in the preseason polls. He had KU and Alabama at 4 and 9, when most polls had them at #1 and #2... So yeah, not sure how the "most talented rosters" is measured, but his preseason projections are more than reasonable, IMO.
No.
Teams that Tarvik got totally wrong:
#1 UConn: 18-9 (10-6)
After dominating the Big East for two straight years, the Huskies have been surpassed by Rick Pitino's St John Storm.
#13 Georgetown: 16-11 (7-9) <-- below 0.500 in BE
Overrated ACC teams are now NCAA bubble teams or out:
#4 Virginia: 13-14 (6-10) <-- below 0.500 in the ACC
#5 North Carolina: 17-11 (10-6)
#12 Wake Forrest: 19-8 (11-5)
#20 Syracuse: 11-16 (5-11) <-- below 0.500
#26 Miami: 6-21 (2-14) -- Last in the ACC
Overrated Big "Ten" teams - not even NCAA bubble teams:
#3 Indiana: 16-11 (7-9)
#16 Penn St: 15-13 (5-12)
#22 Ohio St: 15-13 (7-10)
Indiana, Penn ST & Ohio St may have made the 2024 college football playoffs but all of these programs suck in basketball today!
Ditto for the Georgia Bulldogs!
Ditto for the Notre Dame Irish (12-15, 6-10)!
I guess these 2024-CFP-teams used up all of their 'NIL'-money on their football teams
and have nothing to show for their basketball teams.
The Tennessee Vols were the only program to have a top 12 football team
and a top 12 basketball team on that list. Good going!
The Vols were the only program to both walk & chew gum at the same time!
====================================================================
Can't forget Tarvik's top SEC (2025) pre-season projections:
No SEC teams were in Tarviks preseason Top 10 until
#17 Texas AM, love the aggies so much that Tarvik also has them at #35!
#18 Arkansas: 16-11 (5-9)
#21 Georgia: 16-11 (4-10)
#33 Tennessee (at least the vols were mentioned)
#32 Ole Miss
#36 Miss St
# 41 Kentucky
#43 Missouri
#44 LSU
#49 S. Carolina
---------------------------------------------------------------
Didn't Alabama make the 2024 Final4?
Didn't Auburn & Florida play for the 2024 SEC title, with AU winning it?
AU, AL & FL were not even good enough for the preseason top 50?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the current Kenpom & NCAA NET, four of the top six teams are SEC:
Wk16-AP Poll of SEC teams (8 SEC teams ranked):
#1 Auburn,
#2 Florida,
#4 Alabama,
#6 Tennessee,
#7 Texas AM
#17 Kentucky
#21 Mississippi St
#24 Mississippi
Basketball :: College Poll Tracker :: Breaking down college polls every week of the season.
collegepolltracker.com
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Pretty sure the list you're looking at is the "talent" one. UCONN was 13th I believe in the preseason projections. Think this is it.No.
Teams that Tarvik got totally wrong:
#1 UConn: 18-9 (10-6)
After dominating the Big East for two straight years, the Huskies have been surpassed by Rick Pitino's St John Storm.
#13 Georgetown: 16-11 (7-9) <-- below 0.500 in BE
Overrated ACC teams are now NCAA bubble teams or out:
#4 Virginia: 13-14 (6-10) <-- below 0.500 in the ACC
#5 North Carolina: 17-11 (10-6)
#12 Wake Forrest: 19-8 (11-5)
#20 Syracuse: 11-16 (5-11) <-- below 0.500
#26 Miami: 6-21 (2-14) -- Last in the ACC
Overrated Big "Ten" teams - not even NCAA bubble teams:
#3 Indiana: 16-11 (7-9)
#16 Penn St: 15-13 (5-12)
#22 Ohio St: 15-13 (7-10)
Indiana, Penn ST & Ohio St may have made the 2024 college football playoffs but all of these programs suck in basketball today!
Ditto for the Georgia Bulldogs!
Ditto for the Notre Dame Irish (12-15, 6-10)!
I guess these 2024-CFP-teams used up all of their 'NIL'-money on their football teams
and have nothing to show for their basketball teams.
The Tennessee Vols were the only program to have a top 12 football team
and a top 12 basketball team on that list. Good going!
The Vols were the only program to both walk & chew gum at the same time!
====================================================================
Can't forget Tarvik's top SEC (2025) pre-season projections:
No SEC teams were in Tarviks preseason Top 10 until
#17 Texas AM, love the aggies so much that Tarvik also has them at #35!
#18 Arkansas: 16-11 (5-9)
#21 Georgia: 16-11 (4-10)
#33 Tennessee (at least the vols were mentioned)
#32 Ole Miss
#36 Miss St
# 41 Kentucky
#43 Missouri
#44 LSU
#49 S. Carolina
---------------------------------------------------------------
Didn't Alabama make the 2024 Final4?
Didn't Auburn & Florida play for the 2024 SEC title, with AU winning it?
AU, AL & FL were not even good enough for the preseason top 50?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the current Kenpom & NCAA NET, four of the top six teams are SEC:
Wk16-AP Poll of SEC teams (8 SEC teams ranked):
#1 Auburn,
#2 Florida,
#4 Alabama,
#6 Tennessee,
#7 Texas AM
#17 Kentucky
#21 Mississippi St
#24 Mississippi
Basketball :: College Poll Tracker :: Breaking down college polls every week of the season.
2024-25 Projections - - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
barttorvik.com
Pretty sure the list you're looking at is the "talent" one. UCONN was 13th I believe in the preseason projections. Think this is it.
2024-25 Projections - - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.barttorvik.com
Meh, as hard as it is to come up with a good preseason ranking (it's not exactly like the preseason AP top 25 is usually that amazing) it is virtually impossible to do a pure mathematical one. The more games are played the more data and analytics are better than the "eye test". With zero games, well..
It doesn't say anything about the quality of the analytics late in the season which aren't using the preseason projections at all.
It doesn't say anything about the quality of the analytics late in the season which aren't using the preseason projections at all.
The gap is closing. The crop of freshmen we have this year is very, very good. And I would argue it's partly because they weren't precluded from summer tournaments like other recent classes were. Also, there will be no more free COVID year of eligibility. That means teams will have a smaller pool of players to pick from in the transfer portal - and that will also necessitate freshmen as rotation players in more and more lineups.
No.
Teams that Tarvik got totally wrong:
#1 UConn: 18-9 (10-6)
After dominating the Big East for two straight years, the Huskies have been surpassed by Rick Pitino's St John Storm.
#13 Georgetown: 16-11 (7-9) <-- below 0.500 in BE
Overrated ACC teams are now NCAA bubble teams or out:
#4 Virginia: 13-14 (6-10) <-- below 0.500 in the ACC
#5 North Carolina: 17-11 (10-6)
#12 Wake Forrest: 19-8 (11-5)
#20 Syracuse: 11-16 (5-11) <-- below 0.500
#26 Miami: 6-21 (2-14) -- Last in the ACC
Overrated Big "Ten" teams - not even NCAA bubble teams:
#3 Indiana: 16-11 (7-9)
#16 Penn St: 15-13 (5-12)
#22 Ohio St: 15-13 (7-10)
Indiana, Penn ST & Ohio St may have made the 2024 college football playoffs but all of these programs suck in basketball today!
Ditto for the Georgia Bulldogs!
Ditto for the Notre Dame Irish (12-15, 6-10)!
I guess these 2024-CFP-teams used up all of their 'NIL'-money on their football teams
and have nothing to show for their basketball teams.
The Tennessee Vols were the only program to have a top 12 football team
and a top 12 basketball team on that list. Good going!
The Vols were the only program to both walk & chew gum at the same time!
====================================================================
Can't forget Tarvik's top SEC (2025) pre-season projections:
No SEC teams were in Tarviks preseason Top 10 until
#17 Texas AM, love the aggies so much that Tarvik also has them at #35!
#18 Arkansas: 16-11 (5-9)
#21 Georgia: 16-11 (4-10)
#33 Tennessee (at least the vols were mentioned)
#32 Ole Miss
#36 Miss St
# 41 Kentucky
#43 Missouri
#44 LSU
#49 S. Carolina
---------------------------------------------------------------
Didn't Alabama make the 2024 Final4?
Didn't Auburn & Florida play for the 2024 SEC title, with AU winning it?
AU, AL & FL were not even good enough for the preseason top 50?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the current Kenpom & NCAA NET, four of the top six teams are SEC:
Wk16-AP Poll of SEC teams (8 SEC teams ranked):
#1 Auburn,
#2 Florida,
#4 Alabama,
#6 Tennessee,
#7 Texas AM
#17 Kentucky
#21 Mississippi St
#24 Mississippi
Basketball :: College Poll Tracker :: Breaking down college polls every week of the season.
You're looking at the wrong list. I'm talking about his preseason projections; I included the top 18 teams in a screenshot.
And yes, he totally got some teams wrong like UNC and Missouri. But, so did everyone. Without doing a deep dive, I'd say his projections are more accurate than the preseason AP Poll.
So why does rutgers suck then if this crop of freshmen is different? 2 top 4 picks and likely wont make the tournament. I will you Flagg for sure though
Fun fact:
On another forum, this was literally the only hot take I made in the preseason. Looks like I made a solid pick.
It's very possible Duke's entire starting lineup will be drafted this summer. And Isaiah Evans could be drafted, as well. Duke's supporting cast is infinitely more talented than what Bailey and Harper are dealing with. Compare that to Rutgers, when evaluating players 3-10 in the rotation, I'd argue they have a bottom 5 talent roster for P5 schools.
On another forum, this was literally the only hot take I made in the preseason. Looks like I made a solid pick.
It's very possible Duke's entire starting lineup will be drafted this summer. And Isaiah Evans could be drafted, as well. Duke's supporting cast is infinitely more talented than what Bailey and Harper are dealing with. Compare that to Rutgers, when evaluating players 3-10 in the rotation, I'd argue they have a bottom 5 talent roster for P5 schools.
I will be willing to bet that Cooper Flagg is the only player on Duke currently that will have a long nba career. The rest have g league and overseas written all over them even if they are drafted.Fun fact:
On another forum, this was literally the only hot take I made in the preseason. Looks like I made a solid pick.
It's very possible Duke's entire starting lineup will be drafted this summer. And Isaiah Evans could be drafted, as well. Duke's supporting cast is infinitely more talented than what Bailey and Harper are dealing with. Compare that to Rutgers, when evaluating players 3-10 in the rotation, I'd argue they have a bottom 5 talent roster for P5 schools.
Tag me in 10 years. I'm willing to bet at least one other current Duke player is still active in the NBA.
Maybe Evans. Take flagg off your current roster and i am not sure duke is a second weekend ncaa tourney team.
Tyus Jones is in his 10th season right now. Grayson Allen and Gary Trent are in their 7th season in the league. Did you foresee all of them lasting this long? Jones and Allen were late 1st Rounders. Trent was a 2nd rounder.
I think Maluach, Knueppel, and Evans are all capable of playing 10+ years in the league. We'll see.
I am sorry I dont have much at all for Knueppel. That dude was the least atheltic guy on the floor when Auburn and Duke played. I like evans. We will see about maluach. Allen and Jones at duke are better than everyone on Duke right now sans Flagg. Trent is surprising. Will give you that one
Bailey is super talented but raw. Harper was either missing or ineffective in a bunch of games due to illness and injury. The transfers they got were not good; Rutgers is starting 4 freshmen now.
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