2018-19 Pick 'Em Week 11

[dukedevilz]

Amazingly low scores last week. Even had an 0-for. Just 2 posters had double-digit points last week - myself and schooner. Prepare for another week of disaster!

Week 11 Games:
Tuesday- Seton Hall at Providence
Saturday- Maryland at Ohio State
Saturday- Michigan at Wisconsin
Saturday- Kentucky at Auburn
Saturday- TCU at Kansas State
Saturday- Virginia at Duke

Week 10 Scores:
dukedevilz- 16
schoonerwest- 11
WeAreDePaul- 9
JimboBBN- 8
jhmossy- 7
rockycard- 7
GE Nole- 7
SNU0821- 6
SIhoosier26- 5
coryfly- 0

Cumulative Standings:
@jhmossy 138
@JimboBBN 129
@SNU0821 125
@rockycard 124
@schoonerwest 124
dukedevilz 124
@WeAreDePaul 110
@coryfly 109
@GE Nole 92
@SIhoosier26 69
@KisteK 46
@BasketBallJunkie-UK 44
@HRTheCard 31
@MKordIUBB 15
@JayhawkWriter 11
@duckboy33 10
@BobbyBoucheer 9
@bignish 7
@mathman68 5

Pretty close battle for 2nd place right now. Mossy still has a semi-comfortable lead.

 

[dukedevilz]

6- Auburn
5- Providence
4- Duke
3- Maryland
2- Wisconsin
1- Kansas State

 

[sgrooms]

So what made you change your mind and include the Virginia at Duke game?

 

[dukedevilz]

Hard to ignore a top 5 matchup, especially since UVA is undefeated. But, I did previously mention I was still considering the matchup. Also, UVA did win at Duke last year - and their half-court defense could easily frustrate a young team that likes to get out and run.

Subject to change. Might include UVA next week, especially if UVA remains undefeated.

 

[sgrooms]

Hard to ignore a top 5 matchup, especially since UVA is undefeated. But, I did previously mention I was still considering the matchup. Also, UVA did win at Duke last year - and their half-court defense could easily frustrate a young team that likes to get out and run.

Most of the comments hinted toward leaving this game out, with a disclaimer saying you might change it. I was just curious what made you change your mind, since most of that was true last week. I mean, most assumed they would beat BS and Clemson to still be undefeated. I guess Bart Torvik's % was below your 70% threshold. Is this game still a 67%?

 

[WeAreDePaul]

Damn this is a tough week. Nice choices.

6 - Kansas State (Wade is back)
5 - Providence
4 - Michigan
3 - Maryland
2 - Virginia (was tempted to put this even higher)
1 - Kentucky

 

[dukedevilz]

Most of the comments hinted toward leaving this game out, with a disclaimer saying you might change it. I was just curious what made you change your mind, since most of that was true last week. I mean, most assumed they would beat BS and Clemson to still be undefeated. I guess Bart Torvik's % was below your 70% threshold. Is this game still a 67%?

62.3% for one prediction model and 63% for the other. So it does look a little more favorable for a balanced game. I think this game will be within a couple points, personally.

 

[sgrooms]

62.3% for one prediction model and 63% for the other. So it does look a little more favorable for a balanced game. I think this game will be within a couple points, personally.

Absolutely. Max, four point spread. I'm a little nervous your prediction models went down.

I'm curious how high people will put Virginia this week. I'm sure you'll get a couple takers higher than WeAreDePaul, at 2.

 

[rockycard]

6 Ohio state
5 Auburn
4 Duke
3 providence
2 K State
1 Michigan

 

[SNU0821]

6 - Duke
5 - Michigan
4 - Ohio State
3 - Kansas State
2 - Kentucky
1 - Providence

 

[WeAreDePaul]

LSU at Ole Miss would've been a good one for the contest this week. LSU really starting to play well, winners of 5 straight.

 

[dukedevilz]

LSU at Ole Miss would've been a good one for the contest this week. LSU really starting to play well, winners of 5 straight.

I think it will be a fun matchup. Two great teams. But I think it'd be hard to pick against Ole Miss, as they are coming off a 15-point win against Auburn and a road win against Miss State. Two very impressive wins. They are the second hottest team in the SEC, behind only Tennessee. Being at home is what tilts it a little too much for me. If this were at LSU (or a neutral court), I'd be much more inclined to include the game.

 

[schoonerwest]

6) Ohio State
5) Kansas State
4) Auburn
3) Seton Hall
2) Michigan
1) Virginia

 

[coryfly]

6-Kentucky
5-Michigan
4-Maryland
3-Duke
2-Kansas State
1-Providence

 

[JimboBBN]

6 Michigan
5 Kansas State
4 Providence
3 Kentucky
2 Ohio State
1 Duke

 

[GE Nole]

6. Ohio State
5. Auburn
4. Kansas State
3. Providence
2. UVA
1. Wisconsin

 

[jhmossy]

6 - Auburn
5 - Ohio State
4 - Michigan
3 - Kansas State
2 - Providence
1 - UVA

 

[WeAreDePaul]

6 - Auburn
5 - Ohio State
4 - Michigan
3 - Kansas State
2 - Providence
1 - UVA

UVA at 1? With no Tre Jones. Cmon, @jhmossy , show some confidence. Virginia gonna blow them out of the building with no Jones. I had them picked to win at #2 even with Jones.

 

[jhmossy]

UVA at 1? With no Tre Jones. Cmon, @jhmossy , show some confidence. Virginia gonna blow them out of the building with no Jones. I had them picked to win at #2 even with Jones.

I never bet on UVA. This is my way of not betting on the game while having to bet on the game.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

I never bet on UVA. This is my way of not betting on the game while having to bet on the game.

I don't bet on my teams either, but this isn't for actual money so that's a really lame excuse.

@dukedevilz , told ya you were sleeping on LSU this week

 

[jhmossy]

I don't bet on my teams either, but this isn't for actual money so that's a really lame excuse.

@dukedevilz , told ya you were sleeping on LSU this week

Based on the method I have been using (which has me in 1st place), I should have bet on Duke and probably at a 3 or 4 level confidence. But I just couldn't do it.

 

[dukedevilz]

According to Bart Torvik, Duke now has a 54% chance to win on Saturday. Pretty much a 50-50 game. Those are the games we need on here.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

According to Bart Torvik, Duke now has a 54% chance to win on Saturday. Pretty much a 50-50 game. Those are the games we need on here.

this is why I suck at gambling. I would say that without Tre Duke has at most a 20% chance of victory. And I think that's being generous. Honestly can't envision too many scenarios where Duke beats Virginia without a PG.

 

[dukedevilz]

this is why I suck at gambling. I would say that without Tre Duke has at most a 20% chance of victory. And I think that's being generous. Honestly can't envision too many scenarios where Duke beats Virginia without a PG.

20% at most? Come on now. Certainly Duke isn't the same without Tre - offense looks disjointed, and the defense is only a shell of its former self. But we're talking about arguably the 1-2 picks in the draft + one more lottery pick in Reddish... if Jack White goes 0-10 from three, then this becomes a lot more realistic.

 

[JimboBBN]

Love how many posters are picking Auburn

 

[WeAreDePaul]

20% at most? Come on now. Certainly Duke isn't the same without Tre - offense looks disjointed, and the defense is only a shell of its former self. But we're talking about arguably the 1-2 picks in the draft + one more lottery pick in Reddish... if Jack White goes 0-10 from three, then this becomes a lot more realistic.

yea I don't see it. UVA defense is going to swallow the Duke wings with no one to give them the ball in the right spots. Even with a healthy Tre I had UVA winning this game so it makes sense that without Tre I have it at 20% max. I often am wrong about predictions so we'll see, but I think UVA is on a different level than even a healthy Duke this season. No one seems to be noticing just how badly UVA is dump trucking their opponents in the past month. I'm very impressed with UVA and have them as the #1 team in the country right now.

 

[kelley2403]

yea I don't see it. UVA defense is going to swallow the Duke wings with no one to give them the ball in the right spots. Even with a healthy Tre I had UVA winning this game so it makes sense that without Tre I have it at 20% max. I often am wrong about predictions so we'll see, but I think UVA is on a different level than even a healthy Duke this season. No one seems to be noticing just how badly UVA is dump trucking their opponents in the past month. I'm very impressed with UVA and have them as the #1 team in the country right now.

We didn’t dump truck VCU at home. That game was pretty even until about 5 minutes left. If we shoot like we did against Tech then it will be a blow out, but that’s not going to happen. I see a close game all the way down to the end.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

We didn’t dump truck VCU at home. That game was pretty even until about 5 minutes left. If we shoot like we did against Tech then it will be a blow out, but that’s not going to happen. I see a close game all the way down to the end.

Wish I got to see that game, but it wasn't on TV in Chicago. Saw the final score and that's it. Looking forward to the game on Saturday, but sucks that Jones isn't playing.

BTW, sorry about your dog. My guy just passed a few weeks ago, about a month short of his 13th birthday. Sucks.

 

[kelley2403]

Wish I got to see that game, but it wasn't on TV in Chicago. Saw the final score and that's it. Looking forward to the game on Saturday, but sucks that Jones isn't playing.

BTW, sorry about your dog. My guy just passed a few weeks ago, about a month short of his 13th birthday. Sucks.

Thanks, it does suck. She was my once in a lifetime dog.

 

[dukedevilz]

yea I don't see it. UVA defense is going to swallow the Duke wings with no one to give them the ball in the right spots. Even with a healthy Tre I had UVA winning this game so it makes sense that without Tre I have it at 20% max. I often am wrong about predictions so we'll see, but I think UVA is on a different level than even a healthy Duke this season. No one seems to be noticing just how badly UVA is dump trucking their opponents in the past month. I'm very impressed with UVA and have them as the #1 team in the country right now.

Winning on the road is never easy. Duke probably isn't in the first tier of title contenders without Tre Jones, but I think they're still a top 10 team. Beating Duke on the road won't come easy. Heck, I remember when Duke struggled mightily in 1995, going 2-14 in the ACC. They still managed to take UNC, a Final Four team that year, to double overtime. Wake Forest, who managed to earn a #1 seed, beat Duke on a last-second jumper by Randolph Childress... I certainly wouldn't be surprised if UVA wins, but I doubt their odds of winning is anywhere near 80%.

 

[dukedevilz]

I have it at 20% max.

6 assists on 26 made baskets. UVA's defense looked fairly average, considering Zion and RJ could get just about whatever they wanted in isolation mode. Excited to see Duke play UVA with better ball movement... but yes, 20% was amazingly low odds for a team with arguably the two most talented players in the country.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

6 assists on 26 made baskets. UVA's defense looked fairly average, considering Zion and RJ could get just about whatever they wanted in isolation mode. Excited to see Duke play UVA with better ball movement... but yes, 20% was amazingly low odds for a team with arguably the two most talented players in the country.

Or I could just say that this one fell into that rare 20% realm where Kyle Guy doesn't hit a shot in the 2nd half.

Or my prediction was just horse crap.

One of those two explanations is what I'm going with. Either way, gonna be tough for UVA to get me back on the bandwagon after that display. They really let me down. You are right about RJ and Zion, UVA couldn't guard them at all.

 

[sgrooms]

Or I could just say that this one fell into that rare 20% realm where Kyle Guy doesn't hit a shot in the 2nd half.

Or my prediction was just horse crap.

One of those two explanations is what I'm going with. Either way, gonna be tough for UVA to get me back on the bandwagon after that display. They really let me down. You are right about RJ and Zion, UVA couldn't guard them at all.

I think you let us know you don't believe it was just the first.

 

[jhmossy]

Or I could just say that this one fell into that rare 20% realm where Kyle Guy doesn't hit a shot in the 2nd half.

Or my prediction was just horse crap.

One of those two explanations is what I'm going with. Either way, gonna be tough for UVA to get me back on the bandwagon after that display. They really let me down. You are right about RJ and Zion, UVA couldn't guard them at all.

Have fun rooting for DePaul

 

[WeAreDePaul]

Have fun rooting for DePaul

that's not possible.