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This year truly is a historically weak bubble for NCAA tourney teams

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SpartanJD

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Dec 3, 2010
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So, if you are one of the last four teams in, than you have to do a "play in game". Interesting. The winner then becomes the 12th seed taking on a 5 seed in the RD64. So this week, it could be the following "play in games":
Arizona St-Florida
Indiana-Temple.

Jeesh! It's been a while since Florida received such a low bid.

The last four byes (Texas, Alabama, St Johns and Seton Hall) get 11 seeds. Actually, Texas as a consequence of being the best of the last four byes gets the last 10th seed.
 
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GE Nole said:
Definitely a weak bubble year. The Pac likely getting 1 bid is contributing to that. And Big East is what, a 4 bid league? 5 bids for the PAC and BigE combined?
Click to expand...

What does 'weak' bubble mean?
A lot of teams are still in contention or
very few teams are in contention for an NCAA bid?
 
Not a surprise considering how down CBB is compared to last year. Name another major conference besides the Big10 that is better overall than last year? You can't. They're all worse.

Big East is way down from last year. Pretty much the only team better this year than last is St. Johns in terms of tourney teams.

ACC is way down as well. Depth is way down and the top teams aside from Duke are worse than they were last year.

SEC is down from last year. Not nearly as much depth.

Pac12 not even worth talking about

Big12 took a massive hit this year. Only team in the entire conf that is better than last year is Iowa St.
 
The Selection Committee really needs to stop putting in the 9th best teams from power conferences. It's sad that Nebraska and Indiana are still both projected to make it, even after going 3-7 in the Big Ten. I'm not sure Nebraska has beaten an at-large team this year.

We need teams like Lipscomb, Wofford, Hofstra, and San Francisco.
 
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rdgtr said:
What does 'weak' bubble mean?
A lot of teams are still in contention or
very few teams are in contention for an NCAA bid?
Click to expand...

In means that the resume of teams currently on the right side of the bubble is pretty weak when compared to the resumes of bubble teams in strong bubble years. Some years you can be 20-10 with several good wins and miss the Dance. This year you've got teams that are 12-9 still firmly in the tournament as a 9 or 10 seed.
 
WeAreDePaul said:
Not a surprise considering how down CBB is compared to last year. Name another major conference besides the Big10 that is better overall than last year? You can't. They're all worse.

Big East is way down from last year. Pretty much the only team better this year than last is St. Johns in terms of tourney teams.

ACC is way down as well. Depth is way down and the top teams aside from Duke are worse than they were last year.

SEC is down from last year. Not nearly as much depth.

Pac12 not even worth talking about

Big12 took a massive hit this year. Only team in the entire conf that is better than last year is Iowa St.
Click to expand...

The ACC is at least even with last year, and I'd argue better.
 
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tw3301 said:
I feel like we say this every year.
Click to expand...

Well, the bubble has been getting weaker and weaker over time. Think about it. We went from 64 to 68 teams, that immediately made it weaker. Then we took a bunch of very good mid-majors and added them to existing power conferences. This means that there are fewer bids stolen during conference championship week because there are fewer mid-majors deserving of at-large bids. And now the Pac-12 has seemingly forgotten about basketball.

Having said that, I don't think it's every year as it seems. 2014 was a pretty darn strong bubble. FSU, SMU, and La Tech were all top 40 KenPom teams, all with good to very good records and quality wins, and all left out. 2015 was decently strong as well, with a 21-12 Miami team left out, a 20-11 Texas A&M team left out, and a 27-5 Murray State that went undefeated in conference play was left out.

Last year was pretty weak though, and this year appears weaker.
 
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I’d like to see my Wolfpack get a better seed than 8-12 seed. I really don’t see that many teams that are better than we are besides the obvious top 20 maybe. I think with this field and a few more big wins we should be at a 6 or 7 this year. Thoughts?
 
GE Nole said:
The ACC is at least even with last year, and I'd argue better.
Click to expand...

besides Duke, who's better? NC State and Louisville I guess.

UNC = worse
FL State = worse or the same
UVA = slightly worse
Syracuse = worse
BC = worse
Georgia Tech = who cares
Wake Forest= see above
Clemson = worse
Notre Dame = worse
Louisville = better, but last year was pretty ridiculous for them off court
Virginia Tech = about the same
Pitt = getting better but not a tourney team
Miami = way worse

I'm not sure how anyone can say with a straight face that the ACC is better or even even with ACC last year. Besides Duke, the only 2 tourney teams that got better are a couple at large middle seeds in NC St and L'ville. Everyone else has gotten worse or stayed the same.
 
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boilerzz said:
Well, Nebraska won at Indiana. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Beat a bubble team and win 30% of your league games? Sure, put them in!

tw3301 said:
I feel like we say this every year.
Click to expand...

We do, and I'm still sour about some of the omissions. Saint Mary's went 29-5 last year, 3-2 verse the top 50, highest rated KenPom team to ever miss the tournament.... and that came two years after missing the tournament in 2016 when they went 27-5. The margin of error for mid-majors is razor thing, that's what I dislike. If Indiana played 16 games in the WCC, I promise you they would lose to more than just Gonzaga. If you play 20+ sub-100 teams, you're infinitely more likely to have a bad loss or two. Even a very sound Buffalo team lost a sub-100 team in Northern Illinois.
 
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dukedevilz said:
The Selection Committee really needs to stop putting in the 9th best teams from power conferences. It's sad that Nebraska and Indiana are still both projected to make it, even after going 3-7 in the Big Ten. I'm not sure Nebraska has beaten an at-large team this year.

We need teams like Lipscomb, Wofford, Hofstra, and San Francisco.
Click to expand...

I get it partly, but how do you think those teams would fare if they had to play in the B1G (or ACC, or other P5 conf)?

Are we sure Hofstra would even be 3-7? Have they beat a single at-large team?

Hofstra is KenPom #61, and #47 in NET. Nebraska is #21 / #28.

Hofstra has played the #335 toughest schedule. Nebraska has played the 13th toughest.

What is even Hofstra's best win? Stony Brook? Or Charleston? Have they beat a single Top100 team?

Same questions for San Francisco, Lipscomb, and Wofford. They just don't have the wins, at all. They play nobodies all year round.

Nebraska's resume is definitely questionable, but they have wins over: Clemson, Creighton, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State. None of those are "locks" for the tournament, but they're a lot closer to tournament level teams than all but 1-2 teams from every mid-major or smaller conference.
 
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WeAreDePaul said:
Not a surprise considering how down CBB is compared to last year. Name another major conference besides the Big10 that is better overall than last year? You can't. They're all worse.

Big East is way down from last year. Pretty much the only team better this year than last is St. Johns in terms of tourney teams.

ACC is way down as well. Depth is way down and the top teams aside from Duke are worse than they were last year.

SEC is down from last year. Not nearly as much depth.

Pac12 not even worth talking about

Big12 took a massive hit this year. Only team in the entire conf that is better than last year is Iowa St.
Click to expand...

It’s a chicken vs the egg debate but efficiency wise the teams up top have better efficiency numbers than last year.
 
WeAreDePaul said:
besides Duke, who's better? NC State and Louisville I guess.

UNC = worse
FL State = worse or the same
UVA = slightly worse
Syracuse = worse
BC = worse
Georgia Tech = who cares
Wake Forest= see above
Clemson = worse
Notre Dame = worse
Louisville = better, but last year was pretty ridiculous for them off court
Virginia Tech = about the same
Pitt = getting better but not a tourney team
Miami = way worse

I'm not sure how anyone can say with a straight face that the ACC is better or even even with ACC last year. Besides Duke, the only 2 tourney teams that got better are a couple at large middle seeds in NC St and L'ville. Everyone else has gotten worse or stayed the same.
Click to expand...

Duke = WAY better
UVA = unquestionably better
UNC = same
VT = better
UL = better
FSU = better
Syracuse = same
NCSU = better
Pitt = massively better
GT = same
Clemson = worse
BC = slightly worse
Miami = way worse
ND = worse
Wake = same

So 11 teams are the same or better, with several being significantly better. Only 4 teams are worse, and only one of those four is substantially worse.

Are you sure you're watching games in this league?
 
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dukedevilz said:
The Selection Committee really needs to stop putting in the 9th best teams from power conferences. It's sad that Nebraska and Indiana are still both projected to make it, even after going 3-7 in the Big Ten. I'm not sure Nebraska has beaten an at-large team this year.

We need teams like Lipscomb, Wofford, Hofstra, and San Francisco.
Click to expand...
You shut your mouth! You're placing way too much value on the fact that IU has lost 7 in a row and only has 1 win this year!

Besides all of this, IU is definitely a tournament team.....

*edit....just because I know someone will miss this completely....yes I'm joking
 
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If you're on the bubble you suck and don't have a chance at winning the title so it doesn't matter. Syracuse has success as a bubble team because of their unique zone and some luck but that's about it.
 
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829305 said:
For sure. Roy owns Izzo. ;)
Click to expand...

He does. This isn’t one of his stronger teams though and with Langford now gone I’m sure UNC would like that draw as well. ;)

Edit: by stronger I mean not one of those classic Roy UNC teams dripping with NBA players
 
Last edited:
SpartanJD said:
He does. This isn’t one of his stronger teams though and with Langford now gone I’m sure UNC would like that draw as well. ;)

Edit: by stronger I mean not one of those classic Roy UNC teams dripping with NBA players
Click to expand...
Totally agree. And I think either team can make a run, because there are no world-beaters this year.
 
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WeAreDePaul said:
He has LSU vs Murray State in the opening round. Waters vs Morant would be an epic matchup.
Click to expand...
Yes great battle it would be. Checking out a little of the game on right now. They are behind but think Morant is bout to get rolling here soon.
 
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GE Nole said:
Duke = WAY better
UVA = unquestionably better
UNC = same
VT = better
UL = better
FSU = better
Syracuse = same
NCSU = better
Pitt = massively better
GT = same
Clemson = worse
BC = slightly worse
Miami = way worse
ND = worse
Wake = same

So 11 teams are the same or better, with several being significantly better. Only 4 teams are worse, and only one of those four is substantially worse.

Are you sure you're watching games in this league?
Click to expand...
I was gonna day, Pitt did a complete 180, their record doesn’t showcase just how much of a turnaround they’ve had. Also, UVA looks solid as ever, arguably way better than last year.
 
UL_1986 said:
I was gonna day, Pitt did a complete 180, their record doesn’t showcase just how much of a turnaround they’ve had. Also, UVA looks solid as ever, arguably way better than last year.
Click to expand...

Yeah, anyone saying Pitt isn’t substantially better isn’t paying attention. They went 0-18 in league play last year!

UVA is indeed way better. De’Andre Hunter totally changes their offense. Their efficiency margin is FAR superior than what it was last season.
 
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In all fairness to anyone who doesn't say Virginia is improved....they were the overall #1 seed last year. I understand that this doesn't mean that they still aren't better then what they were last year. But, for someone who doesn't watch them often, its understandable why someone would say they haven't improved....can't be ranked any higher then first.
 
Usbc has a better chance at beating Virginia again than mst and unc getting 1 & 2 seeds
 
EvilMonkeyInTheCloset said:
I have a feeling we're gonna see some more Cinderella mid major teams spoil some of the big boys' seasons again.

Another season of really no dominant top teams.
Click to expand...

Since 2002, the only two seasons there have been 4+ teams with an AdjEM of 30+ have been 2015 and 2019. Compared to the rest of the field, the top is actually pretty dominant.
 
MileHighSpartan said:
I get it partly, but how do you think those teams would fare if they had to play in the B1G (or ACC, or other P5 conf)?

Are we sure Hofstra would even be 3-7? Have they beat a single at-large team?

Hofstra is KenPom #61, and #47 in NET. Nebraska is #21 / #28.

Hofstra has played the #335 toughest schedule. Nebraska has played the 13th toughest.

What is even Hofstra's best win? Stony Brook? Or Charleston? Have they beat a single Top100 team?

Same questions for San Francisco, Lipscomb, and Wofford. They just don't have the wins, at all. They play nobodies all year round.

Nebraska's resume is definitely questionable, but they have wins over: Clemson, Creighton, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State. None of those are "locks" for the tournament, but they're a lot closer to tournament level teams than all but 1-2 teams from every mid-major or smaller conference.
Click to expand...

I don't know much about Hofstra other than they really don't have bad losses on the year. I hate the idea that basically the whole season is dependent on two road games against VCU and Maryland, both of which were close. Only 33% of road teams even win, so now these mid-majors have to win, otherwise they have nothing to go by. I'm sure they could win a fair share of games between Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, Penn State, Indiana, and Nebraska (without Copeland). And Indiana and Nebraska have both yet to beat a team in league play that has a better record than 3-7.

I have seen San Francisco, Lipscomb, and Wofford play, however. San Francisco doesn't have any solid-solid wins yet, best win is against Saint Mary's (#52). But they took Buffalo (#19) and Gonzaga (#2) to the brink. The final score of the USF-Gonzaga game is misleading (free throws) as USF actually had the lead with less than 4 minutes left. They're 17-4 and the eye test tell me they're a top 50 team. I think they could come close to going .500 in the Big Ten, personally. Same goes for Lipscomb, who let's not forget won at TCU - and went down to the wire at Louisville.

And Wofford has been playing really, really well lately. Undefeated in league play including a 29-point win on the road against UNC Greensboro (#51) - and they also won at South Carolina by 20. Wofford is actually ranked 31st in the NCAA Net Rankings, so I actually think they would be an at-large if the season ended today. Also, Wofford returned their top 6 scorers from last year, and last year they won on the road against UNC. They have a very Loyola-Chicago feel about them, albeit the scoring isn't nearly as balanced.
 
SpartanJD said:
Updated this morning. SI bracketology still has IU as a last 4 in. Clemson is a last 4 out--this is a team 2-6 in their league and their best win is a home win over Lipscomb :rolleyes:

Truly a weak year for the bubble. https://www.si.com/college-basketba...s-bracket-projections-duke-tennessee-virginia

Also...Mich St as the 1 out West with UNC as the 2, Nevada the 3, and VT the 4? Uhhhh yes please?
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
dukedevilz said:
I don't know much about Hofstra other than they really don't have bad losses on the year. I hate the idea that basically the whole season is dependent on two road games against VCU and Maryland, both of which were close. Only 33% of road teams even win, so now these mid-majors have to win, otherwise they have nothing to go by. I'm sure they could win a fair share of games between Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, Penn State, Indiana, and Nebraska (without Copeland). And Indiana and Nebraska have both yet to beat a team in league play that has a better record than 3-7.

I have seen San Francisco, Lipscomb, and Wofford play, however. San Francisco doesn't have any solid-solid wins yet, best win is against Saint Mary's (#52). But they took Buffalo (#19) and Gonzaga (#2) to the brink. The final score of the USF-Gonzaga game is misleading (free throws) as USF actually had the lead with less than 4 minutes left. They're 17-4 and the eye test tell me they're a top 50 team. I think they could come close to going .500 in the Big Ten, personally. Same goes for Lipscomb, who let's not forget won at TCU - and went down to the wire at Louisville.
Click to expand...

The thing is half their conference games won’t be against the worst teams in the league.

The other thing is outside of PSU and NW every road game is played in a tough environment. The grind of the physicality of the big ten or any P5 conference and the tough road atmospheres is something that needs to be considered compared to their cupcake league with no intimidating venues.
 
I don't actually follow the selection process closely enough to be able to argue whether a San Francisco belongs in over an Indiana. However, I think putting the mid-majors in makes the tournament far more interesting (at least to me).

I'd far prefer a 6 vs 11 matchup with a #11 San Francisco/Wofford/Lipscomb trying to knock off a power conference #6 seed, compared to a #11 Indiana/Nebraska/Florida trying to do the same. I understand that fans of Indiana/Nebraska/Florida feel differently, and that those names draw higher viewership than some team that only people on this message board have heard of.
 
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