The 349 teams that won't win it all

Ikibari

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Oct 29, 2020
1,174
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If the NCAAT was played in Boulder, I wouldn't bet against them
I wouldn’t either. It’s crazy about the PAC12 schedule running through Colorado and Utah at the same time and the lack of success teams have playing there back to back. Wish I knew how people knew this stuff.
 
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IUBtown

Well-Known Member
Mar 9, 2016
746
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I’ve done it before but yes Kenpom has pretourney and final results. Yes playing and winning 6 games against top teams you generally have better KP numbers.
 

dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2002
6,458
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I believe someone has done this before. Maybe @dukedevilz ?

I think the only way you could track the adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency numbers pre-tournament, is to take a screenshot. I should start doing that, to be honest. KenPom allows you to see the overall ranking for AdjEM, but not the breakdown of AdjO and AdjD. If it does allow you to see that, I'm simply not aware of it. But, I have found the FF numbers from someone else, who tracked them from 2006-2015.

It would be really helpful to find those pre-tournament numbers. Obviously if you win 3-5 games against quality opponents, your efficiency numbers are likely to surge. We like to say things like a top 20 defense and a top 20 offense for a national title contender. And that is true, except for the fact that we're looking at post-tournament efficiencies. Duke began the 2015 NCAA Tournament with the 57th ranked defense - and we finished 11th. After we lost back-to-back games against Miami and NC State, I'm pretty sure our defense was ranked around 90th. So yes, the tournament was HUGE for our overall numbers. But we struggled quite a bit with the PnR during the season. If we're looking to project FF and Title contenders, we clearly need to be cautious when examining post-tournament figures.

Btw, "AT" for those that don't know, simply means adjusted tempo ranking.

Ken-Pom-FF-Pre-Post-Tournament.png

Ken-Pom-FF-Pre-Post-Tournament1.png
 

EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

Well-Known Member
Feb 25, 2008
38,477
10,087
113
I think the only way you could track the adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency numbers pre-tournament, is to take a screenshot. I should start doing that, to be honest. KenPom allows you to see the overall ranking for AdjEM, but not the breakdown of AdjO and AdjD. If it does allow you to see that, I'm simply not aware of it. But, I have found the FF numbers from someone else, who tracked them from 2006-2015.

It would be really helpful to find those pre-tournament numbers. Obviously if you win 3-5 games against quality opponents, your efficiency numbers are likely to surge. We like to say things like a top 20 defense and a top 20 offense for a national title contender. And that is true, except for the fact that we're looking at post-tournament efficiencies. Duke began the 2015 NCAA Tournament with the 57th ranked defense - and we finished 11th. After we lost back-to-back games against Miami and NC State, I'm pretty sure our defense was ranked around 90th. So yes, the tournament was HUGE for our overall numbers. But we struggled quite a bit with the PnR during the season. If we're looking to project FF and Title contenders, we clearly need to be cautious when examining post-tournament figures.

Btw, "AT" for those that don't know, simply means adjusted tempo ranking.

Ken-Pom-FF-Pre-Post-Tournament.png

Ken-Pom-FF-Pre-Post-Tournament1.png
See?

Iowa > everyone #confirmed SmokinSmile
 

ExitFlagger

Well-Known Member
May 2, 2015
8,046
5,049
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Team
Kansas
I'll take the field vs Gonzaga, Iowa, Michigan and Colorado. Any takers?