NCAAM Rankings - Final

[GE Nole]

I left off the Missouri game. I don't think you can really fault Gonzaga for only playing 9 Tier-1 Games. It's going to be like that every season. When I compare their OOC schedule with teams in your 6-14 range, it actually looks favorable. Look at the NCAA Tournament teams that these teams played. Gonzaga played 6 and no one else I have listed below played more than 4 games. They had 3 losses, but they were to the best team in country in Villanova, a double OT loss to Florida, and a road loss by 2 to San Diego St. They also dumptrucked Creighton and Ohio State and went 20-1 in the West Coast. Eyeball test tells me that they were a top 10 team. Here are the OOC schedules against NCAA Tournament Teams for most of the schools you listed in the 6-14 range:

Texas Tech:
W- Nevada
L- Seton Hall

Purdue:
W- Arizona, Butler
L- Tennessee

West Virginia:
W- Missouri, Virginia
L- Texas A&M, Kentucky

Cincinnati:
W- Buffalo, UCLA
L- Xavier, Florida

Loyola Chicago:
W- Florida
L- None

Tennessee:
W- Purdue, NC State
L- Villanova, UNC

FSU:
W- Florida
L- None

Gonzaga:
W- Ohio State, Creighton, Texas
L- Villanova, Florida, San Diego State

Why focus just on OOC? Teams play 30-ish games in the regular season. Teams like Gonzaga and Loyola have to schedule big in the OOC because their conferences aren't all that good. Frankly, the same could be said for the Pac-12 the last few years.

Teams like FSU and Texas Tech are going to play 12+ conference games against NCAAT caliber teams. If they scheduled like Gonzaga OOC, they would play 80% of their schedule against NCAAT teams.

I saw Gonzaga play 5-6 times. Full games. They looked more like an 11-20 team to me. KenPom has them at 10th, which is absolutely the top end of where I would put them. 8th is simply too high. They don't own a win over a team that finished in the top 15 all season--including the tournament. Depending on how you view Ohio State, they might not even own a top 20 win.

 

[dukedevilz]

Why focus just on OOC? Teams play 30-ish games in the regular season. Teams like Gonzaga and Loyola have to schedule big in the OOC because their conferences aren't all that good. Frankly, the same could be said for the Pac-12 the last few years.

Teams like FSU and Texas Tech are going to play 12+ conference games against NCAAT caliber teams. If they scheduled like Gonzaga OOC, they would play 80% of their schedule against NCAAT teams.

I saw Gonzaga play 5-6 times. Full games. They looked more like an 11-20 team to me. KenPom has them at 10th, which is absolutely the top end of where I would put them. 8th is simply too high. They don't own a win over a team that finished in the top 15 all season--including the tournament. Depending on how you view Ohio State, they might not even own a top 20 win.

No top 15 wins? That's not really a valid argument. The only top 15 team they've played is Villanova (I wouldn't count Ohio State or FSU). Maybe they're not a top 10 team. It's debatable, I suppose. I'm just not blown away by the teams in the 6-15 range. Gonzaga has looked like a Final Four team for the most of the season. I saw them play 12 times this year and thought they were good enough to make a deep post-season run. Many experts picked the Zags for a reason. They weren't wildly impressive in the Tournament, I will concede, but they are talented and have played fairly well most of the season.

Also, I would note that the teams in the 6-14 range, with the exception of Cincinnati, all have worse losses than Gonzaga. The Zags have signficantly more opportunities for bad losses. This leads me to believe that most of these teams would have more than 1 loss in the WCC.

Worst RPI Loss:
Cincinnati- Florida, #46
Gonzaga- San Diego State, #62
Tennessee- Georgia, #79
Purdue- Wisconsin, #113
North Carolina- Wofford, #129
Texas Tech- Iowa State, #144
West Virginia- Iowa State #144
Loyola Chicago- Milwaukee, #231
Florida State- Wake Forest, #160

 

[GE Nole]

No top 15 wins? That's not really a valid argument. The only top 15 team they've played is Villanova (I wouldn't count Ohio State or FSU). Maybe they're not a top 10 team. It's debatable, I suppose. I'm just not blown away by the teams in the 6-15 range. Gonzaga has looked like a Final Four team for the most of the season. I saw them play 12 times this year and thought they were good enough to make a deep post-season run. Many experts picked the Zags for a reason. They weren't wildly impressive in the Tournament, I will concede, but they are talented and have played fairly well most of the season.

Also, I would note that the teams in the 6-14 range, with the exception of Cincinnati, all have worse losses than Gonzaga. The Zags have signficantly more opportunities for bad losses. This leads me to believe that most of these teams would have more than 1 loss in the WCC.

Worst RPI Loss:
Cincinnati- Florida, #46
Gonzaga- San Diego State, #62
Tennessee- Georgia, #79
Purdue- Wisconsin, #113
North Carolina- Wofford, #129
Texas Tech- Iowa State, #144
West Virginia- Iowa State #144
Loyola Chicago- Milwaukee, #231
Florida State- Wake Forest, #160

You just reiterated my point. They've played 1 top 15 team. In nearly 40 games. Maybe those other teams suffered a bad loss because the wear and tear of playing 2-3 top 15 teams in one week can grind on you?

Also, we shouldn't be using RPI at all. It's an atrocious rating system. FSU's worst loss on KenPom is 89th (again, Wake). Cincy's in 25th (Nevada). Tennessee's is 65th (again, UGA). Gonzaga's is 50th (again, San Diego State).

None of these teams lost to sub-150 teams. Heck, most didn't lose to a sub-100 team. Gonzaga played 22 games against teams ranked 125th or worse on KenPom. They went 22-0, with 19 wins by double digits. FSU played 11 games against teams ranked 125th or worse on KenPom. They went 11-0, with all but 1 win by double digits. I find it hard to believe that FSU wouldn't have dominated against Gonzaga's schedule...Similarly, it's a pretty good bet that Gonzaga would have racked up a few more losses in the ACC.

Cincy played 15 games against sub-125 teams. 15-0, all but 1 by double digits.
Tennessee played 5 games against sub-125 teams. 5-0, all by double digits.

Top teams just don't lose to sub-125 teams very often. Sure it happens here and there. But pretty uncommon. Top teams lose to teams in the 50-90 range quite often. That's because there's a big difference between a 65th ranked team and a 150th ranked team, especially on the road against a 65th best team. Most of Gonzaga's conference isn't just bad (like NIT bad), they are BAD.

I gave my top 20, what's yours?

 

[dukedevilz]

You just reiterated my point. They've played 1 top 15 team. In nearly 40 games. Maybe those other teams suffered a bad loss because the wear and tear of playing 2-3 top 15 teams in one week can grind on you?

Also, we shouldn't be using RPI at all. It's an atrocious rating system. FSU's worst loss on KenPom is 89th (again, Wake). Cincy's in 25th (Nevada). Tennessee's is 65th (again, UGA). Gonzaga's is 50th (again, San Diego State).

None of these teams lost to sub-150 teams. Heck, most didn't lose to a sub-100 team. Gonzaga played 22 games against teams ranked 125th or worse on KenPom. They went 22-0, with 19 wins by double digits. FSU played 11 games against teams ranked 125th or worse on KenPom. They went 11-0, with all but 1 win by double digits. I find it hard to believe that FSU wouldn't have dominated against Gonzaga's schedule...Similarly, it's a pretty good bet that Gonzaga would have racked up a few more losses in the ACC.

Cincy played 15 games against sub-125 teams. 15-0, all but 1 by double digits.
Tennessee played 5 games against sub-125 teams. 5-0, all by double digits.

Top teams just don't lose to sub-125 teams very often. Sure it happens here and there. But pretty uncommon. Top teams lose to teams in the 50-90 range quite often. That's because there's a big difference between a 65th ranked team and a 150th ranked team, especially on the road against a 65th best team. Most of Gonzaga's conference isn't just bad (like NIT bad), they are BAD.

I gave my top 20, what's yours?

All good points. I understand the flaws associated with the RPI System; I was using it because the Quad 1/2 games are comprised of RPI Rankings. But I would agree other systems give much better representations. Ohio State is 16th in the KenPom Rankings, though. But here's my top 20:

1. Villanova
2. Virginia
3. Michigan
4. Kansas
5. Duke
6. Xavier
7. Cincinnati
8. Texas Tech
9. Purdue
10. Gonzaga
11. Loyola Chicago
12. North Carolina
13. Michigan State
14. Tennessee
15. West Virginia
16. Kentucky
17. Clemson
18. Nevada
19. Florida State
20. Ohio State

 

[GE Nole]

All good points. I understand the flaws associated with the RPI System; I was using it because the Quad 1/2 games are comprised of RPI Rankings. But I would agree other systems give much better representations. Ohio State is 16th in the KenPom Rankings, though. But here's my top 20:

1. Villanova
2. Virginia
3. Michigan
4. Kansas
5. Duke
6. Xavier
7. Cincinnati
8. Texas Tech
9. Purdue
10. Gonzaga
11. Loyola Chicago
12. North Carolina
13. Michigan State
14. Tennessee
15. West Virginia
16. Kentucky
17. Clemson
18. Nevada
19. Florida State
20. Ohio State

I think Loyola has a pretty darn good case to be above Gonzaga. Similar record. Similar schedule. Loyola won at UF, whereas Gonzaga lost to UF in a semi-home game. Loyola went to Final 4. FSU below Clemson, Kentucky, and Nevada is tough for me too, but perhaps I'm just a homer.

Overall, looks good and definitely can get on board with Gonzaga at 10-12 more than I can 6-8.

 

[tw3301]

All good points. I understand the flaws associated with the RPI System; I was using it because the Quad 1/2 games are comprised of RPI Rankings. But I would agree other systems give much better representations. Ohio State is 16th in the KenPom Rankings, though. But here's my top 20:

1. Villanova
2. Virginia
3. Michigan
4. Kansas
5. Duke
6. Xavier
7. Cincinnati
8. Texas Tech
9. Purdue
10. Gonzaga
11. Loyola Chicago
12. North Carolina
13. Michigan State
14. Tennessee
15. West Virginia
16. Kentucky
17. Clemson
18. Nevada
19. Florida State
20. Ohio State

UMBC should be ahead of Virginia.

 

[dukedevilz]

UMBC should be ahead of Virginia.

lol. nice.... so move UMBC up to #2?

 

[jhmossy]

You can’t just compare the numbers, you need to watch the games instead. Michigan is actually very different from Virginia, the offensive game they played against Texas A & M is something Virginia can only do in dreams.

Also Virginia’s lackluster March Madness performance wasn’t just a coincidence, your team has been perennial underachievers in Tournament games. Michigan on the other hand, tends to underachieve in regular season but turns it on in March. They made two final fours as #3 and #4 seeds, and they almost always managed to at least play up to their seeding.

Yeah statistically they are both defensive teams that have fewer possssions per game than average, but wanna know the difference? Michigan relies on defense but they can still stir it up and push up the tempo to run great offense when needed. Virginia on the other hand, is one dimensional, Coach Bennett has one and only one tactic. If their running the clock tactic fails, and the other team gets hot to go on a run, there’s no plan B or plan C, just white flag waved.

It's funny you say that you need to watch the games and simultaneously say that UVA only has one tactic. You clearly have not watched all of UVA's games. We overcame double digit deficits a few times this year by pushing the pace. But I'm sure you knew that.

UVA has also had offensively efficient performances like Michigan did against A&M. Michigan scored 1.38 ppp against A&M (99 points in 72 possessions). UVA scored 1.43 ppp against Austin Peay (weak competition but 93 points on 65 possessions) but also has had adjOs in the high 1.2s against UNC, Cuse, Louisville, etc.

I am not legitimizing the loss. It was ****ing awful and there's no excuse for it. Maybe UVA just overachieves in the regular season more than underachieves in the tourney.

 

[jhmossy]

I don't know if I buy all this 100%. But I will say @jhmossy there's a pretty big difference between 65 possessions per game and 59.5 possessions per game. That's almost a 10% increase in possessions. Tony Bennett simply has to find a way to make better use of the fantastic efficiency his teams play with.

I agree with you 100%. We need to push the pace especially against teams of similar or worse talent. I have been a big advocate for utilizing different styles and approaches during the regular season so we're not so robotic in the postseason. If that means a few more losses in the regular season, so be it.

 

[GE Nole]

I agree with you 100%. We need to push the pace especially against teams of similar or worse talent. I have been a big advocate for utilizing different styles and approaches during the regular season so we're not so robotic in the postseason. If that means a few more losses in the regular season, so be it.

Very well said.

I'm not suggesting Leonard Hamilton is a hall of famer (though he is way way better than most FSU fans give credit for), but one of the things I have come to admire him for is his ability to adapt to his players and opponents' various styles. Our single game, non-OT possessions ranged from 88 to 58 (against UVA) this year and from 85 to 57 (Miami) last year.

We've won games like Louisville this year in 78 possessions and Iona last year (an NCAAT team) in 83 possessions, and we've won games like Miami this year in 73 possessions including OT and UVA last year in 60 possessions.

Meanwhile, our Sweet 16 team in 2011 only averaged 66.7 possessions and we beat teams like Texas A&M in the NCAAT in 59 possessions.

 

[speedfrk]

Good season. I'll take it.

 

[sdave]

I'm okay with it. They were #8 in the AP Rankings before the Tournament started and they played the Sweet 16 without the services of Kilian Tillie. They did look fairly pedestrian against FSU, however.

I saw the FSU Michigan game in person. They were long and athletic. They could give a lot of teams trouble

 

[sdave]

Where are you getting your data from? I count 9 quad wins for FSU (UNC, Xavier, Clemson, Miami, Gonzaga, Missouri, @UF, @UL, @VT).

And just to be clear, I didn't fault Gonzaga for being around .500 in Quad 1 games. I faulted them for only playing 9 total, including the NCAAT.

I would probably rank the top 20 like this:
1. Villanova
2. Michigan
3. Kansas
4. UVA
5. Duke
6. Texas Tech
7. UNC
8. Purdue
9. West Virginia
10. Cincinnati
11. Loyola Chicago
12. Tennessee
13. FSU
14. Gonzaga
15. Xavier
16. Clemson
17. Michigan State
18. Kansas State
19. Houston
20. Kentucky

I like this better than the coaches poll.

 

[dukedevilz]

I saw the FSU Michigan game in person. They were long and athletic. They could give a lot of teams trouble

FSU is very long. Seems like Hamilton has a knack for having 2-3 legit 7 footers on the team. If they could shoot with a little more consistency, they would be scary good.

I'm very interested in seeing the development of Ike Obiagu. Obviously he's a bit raw, but he's an absolute shot-blocking machine. He had a block percentage of 20.9%, which is off the charts (higher than Konate). So when he's on the floor, he's blocking more than 1 out 5 shot attempts by the opposing team. Just need to get that man some offense in his game.

 

[sdave]

It's funny you say that you need to watch the games and simultaneously say that UVA only has one tactic. You clearly have not watched all of UVA's games. We overcame double digit deficits a few times this year by pushing the pace. But I'm sure you knew that.

UVA has also had offensively efficient performances like Michigan did against A&M. Michigan scored 1.38 ppp against A&M (99 points in 72 possessions). UVA scored 1.43 ppp against Austin Peay (weak competition but 93 points on 65 possessions) but also has had adjOs in the high 1.2s against UNC, Cuse, Louisville, etc.

I am not legitimizing the loss. It was ****ing awful and there's no excuse for it. Maybe UVA just overachieves in the regular season more than underachieves in the tourney.

Your comparing TAM to Austin Peay?.

 

[jhmossy]

Your comparing TAM to Austin Peay?.

Not at all. He said UVA dreamed of putting up those kind of numbers. We didn't have to dream. It literally happened. I admitted it was against weak competition in my post.

 

[GE Nole]

FSU is very long. Seems like Hamilton has a knack for having 2-3 legit 7 footers on the team. If they could shoot with a little more consistency, they would be scary good.

I'm very interested in seeing the development of Ike Obiagu. Obviously he's a bit raw, but he's an absolute shot-blocking machine. He had a block percentage of 20.9%, which is off the charts (higher than Konate). So when he's on the floor, he's blocking more than 1 out 5 shot attempts by the opposing team. Just need to get that man some offense in his game.

Yeah, in games where we have two to three shooters hitting perimeter shots, "scary" is a good word. Miami--when they still had Bruce Brown--came to Tallahassee and hit a school record 17 threes. They were 17-34 and some were absolute bombs at the end of shot clocks with hands in faces. FSU still won by 9, thanks to 9-19 shooting from three, 24-36 from two, and 28 made free throws. Unfortunately, we just haven't had the kind of offensive talent in Tallahassee that can consistently hit contested shots. Dwayne Bacon and Michael Snaer were the exception, not the norm.

That's changing though. Slowly but surely, Hamilton is upgrading offensive talent while maintaining our length and athleticism.

Ike is a freak of nature. I had a chance to watch a few practices this year and his defensive awareness and timing is just absurd. Been around a lot of basketball players and I've never seen anything like it. He played 10 minutes a game and just had the 4th best shot blocking season in school history. And that 20.9% block rate you mentioned would have been the highest in the KenPom era (2003-present) if he played enough minutes. 30% higher than the best in the country this season (among eligible players).

I asked him where he learned that and he said he grew up playing volleyball. Only took up basketball 3 years ago when he moved to the states. All he knows is how to time his jump, and then get right back off the floor for another block.

Some of the coaching staff told me they wouldn't be shocked if he broke FSU's career block record next season. The career record for blocks at FSU is 240 by Rodney Dobard. Ike had 71 this year, meaning he would need 170 next year to break it. That's 4.7 a game over 36 games...

 

[dukedevilz]

Yeah, in games where we have two to three shooters hitting perimeter shots, "scary" is a good word. Miami--when they still had Bruce Brown--came to Tallahassee and hit a school record 17 threes. They were 17-34 and some were absolute bombs at the end of shot clocks with hands in faces. FSU still won by 9, thanks to 9-19 shooting from three, 24-36 from two, and 28 made free throws. Unfortunately, we just haven't had the kind of offensive talent in Tallahassee that can consistently hit contested shots. Dwayne Bacon and Michael Snaer were the exception, not the norm.

That's changing though. Slowly but surely, Hamilton is upgrading offensive talent while maintaining our length and athleticism.

Ike is a freak of nature. I had a chance to watch a few practices this year and his defensive awareness and timing is just absurd. Been around a lot of basketball players and I've never seen anything like it. He played 10 minutes a game and just had the 4th best shot blocking season in school history. And that 20.9% block rate you mentioned would have been the highest in the KenPom era (2003-present) if he played enough minutes. 30% higher than the best in the country this season (among eligible players).

I asked him where he learned that and he said he grew up playing volleyball. Only took up basketball 3 years ago when he moved to the states. All he knows is how to time his jump, and then get right back off the floor for another block.

Some of the coaching staff told me they wouldn't be shocked if he broke FSU's career block record next season. The career record for blocks at FSU is 240 by Rodney Dobard. Ike had 71 this year, meaning he would need 170 next year to break it. That's 4.7 a game over 36 games...

3 years? Wow. That bit sounds promising. He has a ways to go offensively, but if he's ever reliable enough to play both ways for 25+ minutes, FSU will be a force of nature. I'm excited/hopeful to see him improve more next season.

 

[GE Nole]

3 years? Wow. That bit sounds promising. He has a ways to go offensively, but if he's ever reliable enough to play both ways for 25+ minutes, FSU will be a force of nature. I'm excited/hopeful to see him improve more next season.

Ojo had only played organized ball for like a year before coming to FSU. He went from literally not able to catch/turn/dunk to being a starter on a 26 win team. Stan Jones has a way with raw big men. We are excited.

The main thing he needs to do to stay on the court more is not be a 30% shooter from the FT line. That and have some basic understanding of our offense.

 

[GE Nole]

@dukedevilz everything I just said ^^^^^^ might be altered. Hearing that Stan Jones is very close to accepting the FIU head job. If he does, that’s a MAJOR blow to FSU and our big man development. Jones has been with Ham all 16 years at FSU.

@jhmossy this could potentially change the development curve for Mfiondu Kabengele too. Although at least he’s already had 2 full years with Jones.

 

[jhmossy]

@dukedevilz everything I just said ^^^^^^ might be altered. Hearing that Stan Jones is very close to accepting the FIU head job. If he does, that’s a MAJOR blow to FSU and our big man development. Jones has been with Ham all 16 years at FSU.

@jhmossy this could potentially change the development curve for Mfiondu Kabengele too. Although at least he’s already had 2 full years with Jones.

Yeah that would be a tough loss for sure.