Meet your 2025 contenders for the National Championship

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Barring any Cinderella runs by mid majors, these are the teams in the major 5 college basketball conferences that have made their conference tournament Quarterfinals, thus meaning one of the teams from this list more than likely WILL win the National Championship:

ACC:
Duke
Louisville
Clemson
North Carolina
--------
Wake Forest
SMU

Big East:
St. John's
Creighton
UConn
Marquette
--------
Xavier

Big 10:
Michigan State
Maryland
Michigan
Wisconsin
--------
UCLA
Purdue
Illinois
Oregon

Big 12:
Houston
Texas Tech
Arizona
BYU
--------
Iowa State
Kansas
Baylor

SEC:
Auburn
Florida
Alabama
Tennessee
--------
Kentucky
Missouri
Mississippi
Texas

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Most of you are probably thinking, well sh** that's half the field. And this is where we shrink it.

I listed all the teams that made their conference tournament's Qtrs, because there is statistically a chance that a team that made the Qtrs could go on to win.

But notice I also made a cut line.

Any team ABOVE that cut line means they made the Semifinals of their conference tournament, which means their hypothetical odds improve exponentially based on recent historical trends, and that shrinks the field down to just 24 contenders. And from there, the debate is up to you......

 

[AWilli6995]

I'm not sure on that fourth ACC team being in the tournament.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

I'm not sure on that fourth ACC team being in the tournament.

This list will also change once Selection Sunday happens, but I wouldn't worry about the Tar Heels not making the tournament.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Now we can shrink that list as the semifinals are all set:

ACC:
Duke */**
Louisville
Clemson
North Carolina

Big East:
St. John's */**
Creighton
UConn
Marquette

Big 10:
Michigan State *
Maryland
Michigan
Wisconsin

Big 12:
Houston */**
Texas Tech
Arizona
BYU

SEC:
Auburn*
Florida
Alabama
Tennessee

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Now we can shrink that list as the semifinals are all set:

ACC:
Duke */**
Louisville
Clemson
North Carolina

Big East:
St. John's */**
Creighton
UConn
Marquette

Big 10:
Michigan State *
Maryland
Michigan **
Wisconsin

Big 12:
Houston */**
Texas Tech
Arizona
BYU

SEC:
Auburn*
Florida **
Alabama
Tennessee

Updated to reflect both the regular season and tournament champions, thus shrinking the potential list even more:

ACC- Duke
Big East- St. John's
Big Ten- Michigan State/Michigan
Big 12- Houston
SEC- Auburn/Florida

 

[Necessary Roughness]

I don't think that's how it works.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

I don't think that's how it works.

The trends suggest otherwise.

 

[Necessary Roughness]

The trends suggest otherwise.

12 of the last 22 National Champions didn't win their Conference Tournament. You could have stopped at the Semifinals.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

12 of the last 22 National Champions didn't win their Conference Tournament. You could have stopped at the Semifinals.

Now check regular season titles.........

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Updated to reflect both the regular season and tournament champions, thus shrinking the potential list even more:

ACC- Duke
Big East- St. John's
Big Ten- Michigan State/Michigan
Big 12- Houston
SEC- Auburn/Florida

Bump.

These are the 7 most likely teams to win the national championship this year.

If you want to check on other metrics to shrink the list even more, such as off./def. efficiency, etc, go right ahead.