How Does Gonzaga Compare?

[dukedevilz]

I like this Gonzaga team, I think they're good enough to win it all. What do you all think? Still think I'd take the 2017 team over this team; their defense was tough. But the current team can shoot lights out. No offensive liabilities. A lot of people seem to dismiss the Zags because of an easy schedule. Yet, they've actually fared really well in the last few tournaments. Take a peak:

Most NCAA Tournament wins since 2015:
Villanova- 14
North Carolina- 14
Duke- 12
Gonzaga- 12
Kansas- 11
Kentucky- 10

The thing I like about them from the past few years, is they don't lose games that they're supposed to win.

If the higher seed were to win every NCAA Tournament game, then the win totals would be:
Kansas- 15 (1 seed in 2016-18; 2 seed in 2015)
Villanova- 15 (1 seed in 2015, 2017-18; 2 seed in 2016)
UNC- 13 (1 seed in 2016-17; 2 seed in 2018; 4 seed in 2015)
Duke- 12 (1 seed in 2015; 2 seed in 2015, 2018; 4 seed in 2016)
Kentucky- 10 (1 seed in 2015; 2 seed in 2017; 4 seed in 2016; 5 seed in 2018)
Gonzaga- 9 (1 seed in 2017; 2 seed in 2015; 4 seed in 2018; 11 seed in 2016)

+/- from Expected Win Totals:
Gonzaga, +3
UNC, +1
Duke, even
Kentucky, even
Villanova, -1
Kansas, -4

 

[GE Nole]

Didn't this same Gonzaga team get smashed by a lower seed last year?

I think the Zags are putting up fantastic numbers. But what's all that different from last year?

 

[dukedevilz]

Didn't this same Gonzaga team get smashed by a lower seed last year?

I think the Zags are putting up fantastic numbers. But what's all that different from last year?

Haha, yes. Guess you would know about that. But they at least made the Sweet 16 like they were supposed to. As far as being different, I would say worlds different. Hachimura and Clarke are both worthy of All-American consideration. Zags had a lot of good players last year, but they didn't have star power like they do this year.

 

[GE Nole]

Haha, yes. Guess you would know about that. But they at least made the Sweet 16 like they were supposed to. As far as being different, I would say worlds different. Hachimura and Clarke are both worthy of All-American consideration. Zags had a lot of good players last year, but they didn't have star power like they do this year.

Hachimura was getting star coverage last year. Maybe not Clarke, I guess.

Just seems like this team is really similar to last year's team...which tells me they might struggle against a long, physical team.

 

[dukedevilz]

Hachimura was getting star coverage last year. Maybe not Clarke, I guess.

Just seems like this team is really similar to last year's team...which tells me they might struggle against a long, physical team.

Brandon Clarke was sitting out as a transfer last year, so yes, he certainly wasn't getting star coverage.

People talked about Rui as a potential star, but remember, he was not a starter last year and only averaged 20 minutes and 11 points a game. This year, in contrast, he's averaging 20.5 ppg. Additionally, I would note that Johnanthan Williams lead the Zags in scoring last year at 13.4 ppg. This year, the Zags have Hachimura at 20+ ppg, and Clarke and Norvell at 16+ ppg.

I'm not completely sold on Gonzaga's defense, but their offense is top-notch. It's actually the highest-rated offense in KenPom history. They can run with the best of 'em.

Check out the highest% shooting teams in the country.

3. Tennessee, 50.4%
2. South Dakota State, 50.5%
1. Gonzaga, 53.2%

53% as a team? That's off the charts. Nobody is remotely close to their shooting percentages. I mean, they shoot 62% as a team, on 2-point field goal attempts. They're also pretty solid from downtown, ranking 14th nationally in 3-point percentage. If you're going to beat Gonzaga, you have to contain their historically good offense - or hope you can outscore them.

 

[GE Nole]

Brandon Clarke was sitting out as a transfer last year, so yes, he certainly wasn't getting star coverage.

People talked about Rui as a potential star, but remember, he was not a starter last year and only averaged 20 minutes and 11 points a game. This year, in contrast, he's averaging 20.5 ppg. Additionally, I would note that Johnanthan Williams lead the Zags in scoring last year at 13.4 ppg. This year, the Zags have Hachimura at 20+ ppg, and Clarke and Norvell at 16+ ppg.

I'm not completely sold on Gonzaga's defense, but their offense is top-notch. It's actually the highest-rated offense in KenPom history. They can run with the best of 'em.

Check out the highest% shooting teams in the country.

3. Tennessee, 50.4%
2. South Dakota State, 50.5%
1. Gonzaga, 53.2%

53% as a team? That's off the charts. Nobody is remotely close to their shooting percentages. I mean, they shoot 62% as a team, on 2-point field goal attempts. They're also pretty solid from downtown, ranking 14th nationally in 3-point percentage. If you're going to beat Gonzaga, you have to contain their historically good offense - or hope you can outscore them.

All great points.

But as we've seen in the past, their 2 point shots aren't as effective when up against big, physical teams.

 

[Noahtogo24]

All great points.

But as we've seen in the past, their 2 point shots aren't as effective when up against big, physical teams.

Eh, Zags have won in the tourney vs physical teams before. For example, look at 2017 sweet 16 vs WVU...

 

[829305]

Brandon Clarke was sitting out as a transfer last year, so yes, he certainly wasn't getting star coverage.

People talked about Rui as a potential star, but remember, he was not a starter last year and only averaged 20 minutes and 11 points a game. This year, in contrast, he's averaging 20.5 ppg. Additionally, I would note that Johnanthan Williams lead the Zags in scoring last year at 13.4 ppg. This year, the Zags have Hachimura at 20+ ppg, and Clarke and Norvell at 16+ ppg.

I'm not completely sold on Gonzaga's defense, but their offense is top-notch. It's actually the highest-rated offense in KenPom history. They can run with the best of 'em.

Check out the highest% shooting teams in the country.

3. Tennessee, 50.4%
2. South Dakota State, 50.5%
1. Gonzaga, 53.2%

53% as a team? That's off the charts. Nobody is remotely close to their shooting percentages. I mean, they shoot 62% as a team, on 2-point field goal attempts. They're also pretty solid from downtown, ranking 14th nationally in 3-point percentage. If you're going to beat Gonzaga, you have to contain their historically good offense - or hope you can outscore them.

Do you realize how awful their conference is? Fn horrendous. Zion would be 97% from the field vs those jokers.

 

[GE Nole]

Eh, Zags have won in the tourney vs physical teams before. For example, look at 2017 sweet 16 vs WVU...

West Virginia might have been physical, but they weren't all that big. Not a single contributor over 6'9. I'm talking big teams who get after it down low. Like UNC, FSU, Arizona (in 2014), Duke, Syracuse. Those are the types of teams that have given Gonzaga fits in March.

 

[kyjeff1]

They talked about this team and how it compared to their 2017 team during an interview with Perkins. They aired it during saturday's Gonzaga/BYU game.

Of course, Perkins, who played on the 17 team, said this team is better. Well, he has to say that, he isn't going to admit the 17 team is better, no way.

But the fact of the matter is, the 17 team had Williams-Goss, Collins and Karnowski (sp?). They have nobody on this team that can match what those guys did. That 17 team was loaded .

17>>19

This 19 team is good, but I don't see them duplicating what 17 did.

 

[Noahtogo24]

They talked about this team and how it compared to their 2017 team during an interview with Perkins. They aired it during saturday's Gonzaga/BYU game.

Of course, Perkins, who played on the 17 team, said this team is better. Well, he has to say that, he isn't going to admit the 17 team is better, no way.

But the fact of the matter is, the 17 team had Williams-Goss, Collins and Karnowski (sp?). They have nobody on this team that can match what those guys did. That 17 team was loaded .

17>>19

This 19 team is good, but I don't see them duplicating what 17 did.

If Tillie was healthy I would say it would be close, but without him back, I agree.

 

[Original_Irish]

If Tillie was healthy I would say it would be close, but without him back, I agree.

Still a shot that Tillie will be back by the WCC tournament. Shoot if they can get 10 minutes per game out of him at this point then that would be fantastic.

But if Tillie does come back for the WCC tournament then that is a huge win for Gonzaga. It gives him some time to play in a couple games and then he has over a week off the prepare for the tournament.

 

[Original_Irish]

They talked about this team and how it compared to their 2017 team during an interview with Perkins. They aired it during saturday's Gonzaga/BYU game.

Of course, Perkins, who played on the 17 team, said this team is better. Well, he has to say that, he isn't going to admit the 17 team is better, no way.

But the fact of the matter is, the 17 team had Williams-Goss, Collins and Karnowski (sp?). They have nobody on this team that can match what those guys did. That 17 team was loaded .

17>>19

This 19 team is good, but I don't see them duplicating what 17 did.

They were different teams.

The achilles heal of the '17 team is that they would just unreasonably go cold offensively for long stretches. It happened all throughout the season and in the tournament and it was their downfall in the championship game.

Also their bigs were always in foul trouble. Karnowski, Collins and Williams were always being rotated out because of foul trouble. Collins fouled out, and Karnowski and Williams ended the game with 4 fouls each.

So far, the rotation of Hachimura, Clarke, and Petrosev has been able to stay out of foul trouble a little better. Getting a healthy-ish Tillie in would definitely be huge.

In the end, the 2017 was elite defensively and the 2019 is elite offensively. I don't know who would win but it would be a game between 2 elite teams.

 

[kyjeff1]

They were different teams.

The achilles heal of the '17 team is that they would just unreasonably go cold offensively for long stretches. It happened all throughout the season and in the tournament and it was their downfall in the championship game.

Also their bigs were always in foul trouble. Karnowski, Collins and Williams were always being rotated out because of foul trouble. Collins fouled out, and Karnowski and Williams ended the game with 4 fouls each.

So far, the rotation of Hachimura, Clarke, and Petrosev has been able to stay out of foul trouble a little better. Getting a healthy-ish Tillie in would definitely be huge.

In the end, the 2017 was elite defensively and the 2019 is elite offensively. I don't know who would win but it would be a game between 2 elite teams.

How do we know if the guys on this year's team can stay out of foul trouble? They haven't played anyone since early December. The teams they have been playing since the UNC game have been too weak to get Gonzaga into foul trouble.

Wait until they play a game against a physical team. Their 17 team made the title game, they proved themselves. So far, the '19 version is 1-2 against tough competition.

 

[kyjeff1]

Still a shot that Tillie will be back by the WCC tournament. Shoot if they can get 10 minutes per game out of him at this point then that would be fantastic.

But if Tillie does come back for the WCC tournament then that is a huge win for Gonzaga. It gives him some time to play in a couple games and then he has over a week off the prepare for the tournament.

Trying to mix another key player into the rotation at the end of the season can absolutely kill a teams chemistry.

 

[ThroughBlue]

Hopefully that’s who kentucky plays for #9

 

[dukedevilz]

All great points.

But as we've seen in the past, their 2 point shots aren't as effective when up against big, physical teams.

West Virginia might have been physical, but they weren't all that big. Not a single contributor over 6'9. I'm talking big teams who get after it down low. Like UNC, FSU, Arizona (in 2014), Duke, Syracuse. Those are the types of teams that have given Gonzaga fits in March.

Meh, not really. Zags went a combined 48/87 (55.2%) in 2-point FGA versus Duke/UNC . They also shot 18/41 from 3 against those 2 schools (43.9%). Would also note that Gonzaga wasn't fully healthy in those games. Their defense is nowhere near the 2017 level, but Hachimura and Clarke are legit superstars. The 2019 Zags, in terms of overall talent, are much more comparable to the 2017 team.

 

[dukedevilz]

Do you realize how awful their conference is? Fn horrendous. Zion would be 97% from the field vs those jokers.

Have you watched the West Coast Conference? Most of the teams are semi-decent. They're not great. But they are the #8 rated conference according to the RPI - so, basically the best mid-major conference is America. And they went 11-9 verse the Pac-12 (admittedly that doesn't mean a whole lot this year). They have 5 teams in the top 100, which is much, much better than the typical year. Also, I would note that the Zags beat Saint Mary's by 48 points, and they beat San Francisco by 30 points. Both of those schools are still listed on Lunard's bubble watch.

 

[dukedevilz]

They were different teams.

The achilles heal of the '17 team is that they would just unreasonably go cold offensively for long stretches. It happened all throughout the season and in the tournament and it was their downfall in the championship game.

Also their bigs were always in foul trouble. Karnowski, Collins and Williams were always being rotated out because of foul trouble. Collins fouled out, and Karnowski and Williams ended the game with 4 fouls each.

So far, the rotation of Hachimura, Clarke, and Petrosev has been able to stay out of foul trouble a little better. Getting a healthy-ish Tillie in would definitely be huge.

In the end, the 2017 was elite defensively and the 2019 is elite offensively. I don't know who would win but it would be a game between 2 elite teams.

Finally! Someone who has actually seen Gonzaga play more than twice a year! Yes. You hit the nail on the head in a lot of your points. The 2017 team used to annoy me with those cold spells. They would go up 15-20 points against the likes of Tennessee, Iowa State, Arizona, BYU, Northwestern, South Carolina.... and then suddenly the lead would dwindle to 10 points, 5 points, and then the game was tied. Somehow, they seemed to come out on top in spite of those cold spells. But their defense was about as good as I've seen in the past few years.

And yes, the big guys for this Gonzaga team are doing a fine job of staying out of foul trouble. Love to watch their offense. They seem to always be in rhythm. Only thing that bothers me is when Norvell takes those silly, contested 3-pointers.

 

[GE Nole]

Meh, not really. Zags went a combined 48/87 (55.2%) in 2-point FGA versus Duke/UNC . They also shot 18/41 from 3 against those 2 schools (43.9%). Would also note that Gonzaga wasn't fully healthy in those games. Their defense is nowhere near the 2017 level, but Hachimura and Clarke are legit superstars. The 2019 Zags, in terms of overall talent, are much more comparable to the 2017 team.

Those stats you quoted are from March?

 

[GE Nole]

Have you watched the West Coast Conference? Most of the teams are semi-decent. They're not great. But they are the #8 rated conference according to the RPI - so, basically the best mid-major conference is America. And they went 11-9 verse the Pac-12 (admittedly that doesn't mean a whole lot this year). They have 5 teams in the top 100, which is much, much better than the typical year. Also, I would note that the Zags beat Saint Mary's by 48 points, and they beat San Francisco by 30 points. Both of those schools are still listed on Lunard's bubble watch.

Agree that the WCC is probably about as good as the PAC 12 this year.

 

[dukedevilz]

Those stats you quoted are from March?

Those are numbers from this season against Duke and UNC. Doesn't seem very relevant to compare March numbers when this team barely resembles last year's team. But if you're wanting to look at the past to predict the future, I would reference the NCAA Tournament wins again. In the last 4 years, only Villanova and UNC have more tourney wins than the Zags.

 

[GE Nole]

Those are numbers from this season against Duke and UNC. Doesn't seem very relevant to compare March numbers when this team barely resembles last year's team. But if you're wanting to look at the past to predict the future, I would reference the NCAA Tournament wins again. In the last 4 years, only Villanova and UNC have more tourney wins than the Zags.

Gotcha. Not debating Gonzaga's overall performance. I don't think you'll find someone who has consistently put Gonzaga deeper in their bracket than me.

Just saying my statement was, "Gonzaga has consistently struggled with big, physical teams IN MARCH," and then your response to that was stats from December. You know as well as anyone that teams raise their level of play come March and having a full years worth of film to study allows for more complete game plans to be created.

 

[CDNCBBFan]

This Gonzaga team is absolutely beautiful to watch on O. They could definitely win it all IMO. Their D has improved, but still isn't to the point where I could put them above teams like Duke or Virginia. Sadly, most of the comments you're going to get in a thread like this are just going to trash their conference or them for not beating more good teams. Your points in this thread and others have been bang on though. Obviously the WCC is not the ACC, B10, B12 or SEC, but it's really not a bad conference. To your point in another thread, if some team was on a stretch where they were beating Syracuse, NC State and Clemson by 35-45 points people would be talking about them (those 3 teams are all slightly below Saint Mary's at KenPom).

 

[xWVU2010x]

They can definitely win it all, already took down a full strength Duke team who is IMO the best team in the country on a neutral floor, and will be a 1 seed which should keep them away from a team of equal or better talent until the Final Four (if they dont draw UNC as a 2 in their region). Gut feeling though is they come up just short in the NCG again though.

 

[dukedevilz]

This Gonzaga team is absolutely beautiful to watch on O. They could definitely win it all IMO. Their D has improved, but still isn't to the point where I could put them above teams like Duke or Virginia. Sadly, most of the comments you're going to get in a thread like this are just going to trash their conference or them for not beating more good teams. Your points in this thread and others have been bang on though. Obviously the WCC is not the ACC, B10, B12 or SEC, but it's really not a bad conference. To your point in another thread, if some team was on a stretch where they were beating Syracuse, NC State and Clemson by 35-45 points people would be talking about them (those 3 teams are all slightly below Saint Mary's at KenPom).

Yep! Gonzaga beat the #39 in the nation by 48 freaking points. FWIW, Saint Mary's took both LSU and Miss State down to the wire (4-point loses to both). I'm not guaranteeing anything, but they're not going down easily.

And seriously, if you guys get the chance, watch Gonzaga play. Their offense is really, really hard to contain for long periods of time. They always seem to make the right pass and find the right shooter in the right place.

 

[ThroughBlue]

Of course a duke fan is also a Gonzaga fan

 

[dukedevilz]

Of course a duke fan is also a Gonzaga fan

I picked them to advance to the Sweet 16 of the 1999 NCAA Tournament. And I haven't looked back since then. But to be fair, I root for all mid-majors. I'll defend Wofford, Buffalo, San Francisco, Saint Mary's, Lipscomb, and any mid-major that I think is worthy of an at-large bid.

 

[ThroughBlue]

I picked them to advance to the Sweet 16 of the 1999 NCAA Tournament. And I haven't looked back since then. But to be fair, I root for all mid-majors. I'll defend Wofford, Buffalo, San Francisco, Saint Mary's, Lipscomb, and any mid-major that I think is worthy of an at-large bid.

The tournament can’t all be good teams. Gotta have some teams* to get the big guys** confidence rolling


*excludes UMBC

**excludes Virginia

 

[xWVU2010x]

I picked them to advance to the Sweet 16 of the 1999 NCAA Tournament. And I haven't looked back since then. But to be fair, I root for all mid-majors. I'll defend Wofford, Buffalo, San Francisco, Saint Mary's, Lipscomb, and any mid-major that I think is worthy of an at-large bid.

Not sure if numbers back it up, but I feel like mid majors seeded 10 or lower consistently outperform power conference schools seeded 10 or lower. I feel like alot of it has to do with the mentality of some of the schools getting their first crack at a national audience vs a power conference school who even their low profile games ends up on ESPNU or something which is still technically a "national audience".