28-5
SOS 167
Non con SOS 187
RPI 43
KenPom 29
Good wins
@ Gonzaga
Thats it.
Bad losses
Neutral vs 16-14(7-11) Georgia83 RPI
Neutral vs 12-18(4-14) Washington State 173 RPI
@ 17-15 San Fransisco 136 RPI
Neutral vs BYU 67 RPI
Quadrant 1- 2-1
Quadrant 2 - 2-2
Quadrant 3 - 9-2
Quadrant 4 - 15-0
I honestly dont think they deserve to be in the tournament.
Anytime you have the same number of Q1 wins as you do Q3 losses, probably not your year.
The loss actually gave them another Quad 1 win. BYU jumped up to #67 in the RPI, meaning the win at BYU now qualifies as a Tier 1 win. And they also beat New Mexico State. That is a quality opponent and another Quad 1 win. I've only seen NMSU play once (against USC), but I did watch the full game and they looked pretty darn solid to me.
When I compare their Quad 1 record with other potential at-large bids, I think they're still doing fairly well. Maybe a 10/11 seed at this point. Also, the likelihood of SMC having a Quad 3 loss goes up significantly, comparatively speaking, because they play a lot more Quad 3 teams than a typical at-large contender. Here are some of the Quad 1 records:
Saint Mary's, 3-2 (Gonzaga home loss is now a Quad 1 game, too)
Kentucky, 3-8
Ohio State, 3-5
TCU, 3-8
Nevada, 2-2
Rhode Island, 2-4
Creighton, 3-8
Middle Tennessee, 2-3
Arizona State, 3-5
Kansas State, 3-7
Butler, 3-10
Providence, 3-8
Syracuse, 3-7
UCLA, 3-7
I think most of these teams will make the tournament. And most of them stunk it up in Quad 1 games. Should SMC be penalized for Quad 3 losses and a weak schedule? Certainly. But I think they're more deserving than quite a few of the bubble teams that are being considered. Also, the Committee will be using the metrics from KenPom, Jeff Sagarin, and the BPI as additional data to evaluate. Saint Mary's is ranked in the top 34 of all three of those metrics.
I think they're deserving of at-large bid, but not sure what the Committee will do. In 2016, they were 27-5 with a 2-2 record against RPI Top 50 and 6-3 against RPI Top 100 (4-1 vs teams 51-100). They missed the Tourney in 2016, so yes, SMC is certainly on the bubble... I've watched SMC 7-8 times this year, and last night was certainly the worse I've seen them play. Their defense is typically uninspiring, but it was at whole new level yesterday. So maybe the Committee thinks they don't pass the eye test if they're looking at recent games. Hope to see them get a bid because Jock Landale and Emmett Naar are fun to watch.