Will St Marys miss the tournament?

Mgkcbb

Well-Known Member
Apr 2, 2016
2,708
1,912
113
28-5
SOS 167
Non con SOS 187
RPI 43
KenPom 29

Good wins
@ Gonzaga

Thats it.

Bad losses
Neutral vs 16-14(7-11) Georgia83 RPI
Neutral vs 12-18(4-14) Washington State 173 RPI
@ 17-15 San Fransisco 136 RPI
Neutral vs BYU 67 RPI

Quadrant 1- 2-1
Quadrant 2 - 2-2
Quadrant 3 - 9-2
Quadrant 4 - 15-0


I honestly dont think they deserve to be in the tournament.

Anytime you have the same number of Q1 wins as you do Q3 losses, probably not your year.
 
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RockChalkRally

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They just might miss out. They were in a similar boat a few years ago too where they missed the tourney. Scheduling better plays a major role. Randy Bennett needs to take a closer look how Mark Few schedules.
 
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Bert Higginbotha

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Smiths Grove, Kentucky
kentucky.rivals.com
28-5
SOS 167
Non con SOS 187
RPI 43
KenPom 29

Good wins
@ Gonzaga

Thats it.

Bad losses
Neutral vs 16-14(7-11) Georgia83 RPI
Neutral vs 12-18(4-14) Washington State 173 RPI
@ 17-15 San Fransisco 136 RPI
Neutral vs BYU 67 RPI

Quadrant 1- 2-1
Quadrant 2 - 2-2
Quadrant 3 - 9-2
Quadrant 4 - 15-0


I honestly dont think they deserve to be in the tournament.

Anytime you have the same number of Q1 wins as you do Q3 losses, probably not your year.
Watched the second half of the BYU game last night and I don't see them being NCAA material.

Thanks for this post Mgkcbb. I was going to check out St. Marys after that game because I could not believe they passed the eye test or anything else.
 

Wojoman

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if they end up ranked in the top 25 they will get in. Plus with Landale they have a name people know and they can market if he has a good game or two. NCAA will want the best players in the tourney. Especially this year. They can give them a low seed and then hope they play the Cinderella role.
 
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dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Apr 3, 2002
9,018
11,740
113
28-5
SOS 167
Non con SOS 187
RPI 43
KenPom 29

Good wins
@ Gonzaga

Thats it.

Bad losses
Neutral vs 16-14(7-11) Georgia83 RPI
Neutral vs 12-18(4-14) Washington State 173 RPI
@ 17-15 San Fransisco 136 RPI
Neutral vs BYU 67 RPI

Quadrant 1- 2-1
Quadrant 2 - 2-2
Quadrant 3 - 9-2
Quadrant 4 - 15-0


I honestly dont think they deserve to be in the tournament.

Anytime you have the same number of Q1 wins as you do Q3 losses, probably not your year.

The loss actually gave them another Quad 1 win. BYU jumped up to #67 in the RPI, meaning the win at BYU now qualifies as a Tier 1 win. And they also beat New Mexico State. That is a quality opponent and another Quad 1 win. I've only seen NMSU play once (against USC), but I did watch the full game and they looked pretty darn solid to me.

When I compare their Quad 1 record with other potential at-large bids, I think they're still doing fairly well. Maybe a 10/11 seed at this point. Also, the likelihood of SMC having a Quad 3 loss goes up significantly, comparatively speaking, because they play a lot more Quad 3 teams than a typical at-large contender. Here are some of the Quad 1 records:

Saint Mary's, 3-2 (Gonzaga home loss is now a Quad 1 game, too)
Kentucky, 3-8
Ohio State, 3-5
TCU, 3-8
Nevada, 2-2
Rhode Island, 2-4
Creighton, 3-8
Middle Tennessee, 2-3
Arizona State, 3-5
Kansas State, 3-7
Butler, 3-10
Providence, 3-8
Syracuse, 3-7
UCLA, 3-7

I think most of these teams will make the tournament. And most of them stunk it up in Quad 1 games. Should SMC be penalized for Quad 3 losses and a weak schedule? Certainly. But I think they're more deserving than quite a few of the bubble teams that are being considered. Also, the Committee will be using the metrics from KenPom, Jeff Sagarin, and the BPI as additional data to evaluate. Saint Mary's is ranked in the top 34 of all three of those metrics.

I think they're deserving of at-large bid, but not sure what the Committee will do. In 2016, they were 27-5 with a 2-2 record against RPI Top 50 and 6-3 against RPI Top 100 (4-1 vs teams 51-100). They missed the Tourney in 2016, so yes, SMC is certainly on the bubble... I've watched SMC 7-8 times this year, and last night was certainly the worse I've seen them play. Their defense is typically uninspiring, but it was at whole new level yesterday. So maybe the Committee thinks they don't pass the eye test if they're looking at recent games. Hope to see them get a bid because Jock Landale and Emmett Naar are fun to watch.
 
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mizzoucobra

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Most brackets i've seen have St. Mary's and Mizzou seeded similarly. Both have two "bad" losses.

St. Mary's as mentioned above is 2-1 in Quadrant 1, 2-2 in Quadrant 2.

Mizzou is 5-7 in Quadrant 1 and 6-2 in Quadrant 2.

Will be interesting to see if the committee GAF about their new tool.
 

Mgkcbb

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Apr 2, 2016
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and 12 losses, likely 13 by selection Sunday and trending downward not upward.

Youre rattling things off that dont matter when it comes to this stuff. The committee has already announced theyre heavily weighing the Quadrant system.

Oklahoma is higher in RPI, has 6 quad 1 wins vs St Marys 4 combined Q1+Q2 wins, has a SOS of 23 vs St Marys laughable 164.

Oklahoma is firmly in the tournament field, St Marys os squarely on the bubble.


St Marys played 2 power 5 teams this season

Georgia, who went 7-11 in the SEC. And Washington State, who went 4-14 in the LOL woat Pac12. They lost both games on a neitral floor.

But you think they should be in because theyve beat Portland and San Fransisco to the tune of 28 wins, and Oklahoma shouldnt even though they have beat Wichita State on the road, Texas Tech, Kansas, TCU twice, and Baylor?


Yeah that is bad and you should feel bad.
 

tw3301

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Mar 31, 2009
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Duke
Youre rattling things off that dont matter when it comes to this stuff. The committee has already announced theyre heavily weighing the Quadrant system.

Oklahoma is higher in RPI, has 6 quad 1 wins vs St Marys 4 combined Q1+Q2 wins, has a SOS of 23 vs St Marys laughable 164.

Oklahoma is firmly in the tournament field, St Marys os squarely on the bubble.


St Marys played 2 power 5 teams this season

Georgia, who went 7-11 in the SEC. And Washington State, who went 4-14 in the LOL woat Pac12. They lost both games on a neitral floor.

But you think they should be in because theyve beat Portland and San Fransisco to the tune of 28 wins, and Oklahoma shouldnt even though they have beat Wichita State on the road, Texas Tech, Kansas, TCU twice, and Baylor?


Yeah that is bad and you should feel bad.
I don't really care what the committee said because 90% of the time they don't follow their own logic on selection Sunday. Oklahoma imo doesn't deserve be in the tournament despite their quad bullshit. They're a one trick pony who will get in because the NCAA wants ratings and Trae Young is on the team.

You're a big stat guy and reference kenpom a lot when it suits your purposes, do you think a team ranked 29th overall in kenpom doesn't deserve to get in the tournament? btw I don't care if St. Mary's does or not I just think it's ludicrous to say they're out but a team like Oklahoma is in just because they lose a bunch of games in the Big 12.
 
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Mgkcbb

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I don't really care what the committee said because 90% of the time they don't follow their own logic on selection Sunday. Oklahoma imo doesn't deserve be in the tournament despite their quad bullshit. They're a one trick pony who will get in because the NCAA wants ratings and Trae Young is on the team.

You're a big stat guy and reference kenpom a lot when it suits your purposes, do you think a team ranked 29th overall in kenpom doesn't deserve to get in the tournament? btw I don't care if St. Mary's does or not I just think it's ludicrous to say they're out but a team like Oklahoma is in just because they lose a bunch of games in the Big 12.

Resumes are the holy grail when it comes to tournament inclusion. KenPom doesnt matter very much at all.

The committee has set it up that way so coaches know that they need to schedule accordingly and St Marys coach didnt schedule accordingly and I think he mightve cost his team a tournament appearance.

Oklahoma, despite being in the toughest conference in the nation, scheduled the PK80 tourney as well as a road gane at Wichita (a game they won). So you then add that to all their good conf wins and that is why they have nothing to worry about and 28-5 St Marys is on the bubble


Your opinion or any other random college basketballs opinion about the two teams is irrelevant because the committee doesnt go off that, they go off predetermined metrics.
 

tw3301

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Resumes are the holy grail when it comes to tournament inclusion. KenPom doesnt matter very much at all.

The committee has set it up that way so coaches know that they need to schedule accordingly and St Marys coach didnt schedule accordingly and I think he mightve cost his team a tournament appearance.

Oklahoma, despite being in the toughest conference in the nation, scheduled the PK80 tourney as well as a road gane at Wichita (a game they won). So you then add that to all their good conf wins and that is why they have nothing to worry about and 28-5 St Marys is on the bubble


Your opinion or any other random college basketballs opinion about the two teams is irrelevant because the committee doesnt go off that, they go off predetermined metrics.
Ok, so you're saying St. Mary's does not make the tournament based on their "predetermined metrics" correct?
 

Mgkcbb

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Apr 2, 2016
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Ok, so you're saying St. Mary's does not make the tournament based on their "predetermined metrics" correct?

Theyre squarely on the bubble and in real danger of missing the tournament. Guessing whether the committee puts them in or not is the point of this entire discussion and thread.
 

tw3301

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Mar 31, 2009
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Theyre squarely on the bubble and in real danger of missing the tournament. Guessing whether the committee puts them in or not is the point of this entire discussion and thread.
a simple yes or no will suffice. they're using predetermined metrics so this should be easy for you to figure out. it's all about quads obviously.
 

Mgkcbb

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a simple yes or no will suffice. they're using predetermined metrics so this should be easy for you to figure out. it's all about quads obviously.

Let me evaluate all the metrics when all the data is final from conference tournament action.

Giving a definitive answer now would be silly considering all the bubble teams who still have games and can move up or down RPI.


If I had to guess now Id say No though like I stated in OP. They have to dodge other bubble teams winning games or teams stealing a bid like BYU can vs Gonzaga tonight. Thats a lot to dodge.
 
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JayhawkWriter

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I would say St. Mary's is going to be big fans of favorites all week. Every underdog that steals a bid pushes them closer to the outside looking in. Also being in the top 25 doesn't guarantee you inclusion. UNLV was ranked 25th one year and didn't make the tourney (Granted their best player had just been suspended and without him they were a hot mess of garbage that lost in the first round of the NIT).
 
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tw3301

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Let me evaluate all the metrics when all the data is final from conference tournament action.

Giving a definitive answer now would be silly considering all the bubble teams who still have games and can move up or down RPI.


If I had to guess now Id say No though like I stated in OP. They have to dodge other bubble teams winning games or teams stealing a bid like BYU can vs Gonzaga tonight. Thats a lot to dodge.
That's fair, I'm still saying they get in right now regardless of what happens in their conference tournament but that's just my opinion... no metrics involved.
 

KisteK

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They should.

Piss poor scheduling to fatten up that record.

Pathetic, and they have some history of pud-scheduling.. says the Twittersphere.
 
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IUfanBorden

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This is a team that 3 weeks ago was considered a 6-seed. And i was arguing no god damn way... And that IF they were, then no way a team like Nebraska is left out.

Hmmm..
 

NDCorby

Well-Known Member
Jun 26, 2007
39,257
14,164
113
28-5
SOS 167
Non con SOS 187
RPI 43
KenPom 29

Good wins
@ Gonzaga

Thats it.

Bad losses
Neutral vs 16-14(7-11) Georgia83 RPI
Neutral vs 12-18(4-14) Washington State 173 RPI
@ 17-15 San Fransisco 136 RPI
Neutral vs BYU 67 RPI

Quadrant 1- 2-1
Quadrant 2 - 2-2
Quadrant 3 - 9-2
Quadrant 4 - 15-0


I honestly dont think they deserve to be in the tournament.

Anytime you have the same number of Q1 wins as you do Q3 losses, probably not your year.
They’re in. Bubble is dogshit this year and that resume is good enough most years anyway.