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Discussion in 'College Baseball Clubhouse' started by TheRoosterGuru, Jun 7, 2016.
Oklahoma State (hope I'm wrong)
Here are my guesses:
Florida (as an ACC guy, I hope I'm wrong, maybe I'll jinx the Gators with this pick lol)
Coastal Carolina (prolly wrong, but going with heart)
Louisville (the only one I really care about -- 35-1 at home this year, hope it keeps up)
Florida in 3
Aggie in 3
Coastal in 3
South Carolina in 3
Miami in 2
Louisville in 2
Texas Tech in 3
Miss State in 3
Louisville and Texas A&M in the Championship Series
Going with some upsets.
Florida: first off, any Super Regionals hosted in SEC venues are going to be tough for the visitors to win: the weather, the fanbase support, and the fact that we're talking about a lot of SEC teams with top 10 RPIs, top 25 SOSs, and that have had top 25 rankings most if not all season long. So not only are their home environments tough, but the teams that reside in them themselves are tough too.
But also in the case of Florida - they played FSU 3 times this season and swept them. Sure it's a rivalry and you can throw most stats out the window, and sure they were mid-week games and the top weekend pitchers didn't face each other. But that's not good news for FSU - their top 3 starters all have ERAs well in the 4s, while UF's top pitchers are closer to or below 3.00 ERA. The 'Noles got some strong bats in their lineup, so it will be a series of their offense versus UF's pitching and defense. Usually the pitching and defense wins...
Miss State: both teams are solid, but IMO the Rebels have the better balance. They are the better power-hitting team, with twice the HRs than Arizona. The Wildcats have a solid Ace in Bannister (11-2, 2.63 ERA), while the Rebels can counter with Dakota Hudson (9-4, 2.62 ERA). This could go to 3 gms, but 'Zona's 19-14 record in away and neutral gms means they won't be comfortable...
LSU: very similar reasons to the above - very tough SEC venue where it's very tough to win at. Coastal is from my home town of Conway, SC, and I would love for them to make it to Omaha for the first time in their program history, but I think LSU will just be too tough for them.
South Carolina: I keep reading how tough Oklahoma State is, particularly their pitching. USC's own pitching surpasses the Cowboy's pitching in pretty much every category. OSU was 2nd in the Big 12 in team pitching, USC was 2nd in the SEC. But OSU was 8th out of 9 teams in their conference in team offense, while USC was in the top 5 in the SEC. And the Cowboys nearly had a 4.00 team ERA once they got into conference play.
The Gamecocks look like they have found themselves offensively in the final 4 games of their Regional, so I'm hoping (as a Gamecock fan) that that will continue. South Carolina is 22-3 overall in Regional play as hosts at Founders Park, and is 4-0 there in the only previous two Super Regionals hosted there in 2011 and 2012, against UConn and Oklahoma, respectively.
Texas A&M: TCU won the Big 12 tournament and swept through their regional. Likewise, the Aggies won the SECT and waded through their own regional unscathed. Both teams boast of excellent balance including strong offenses and solid pitching. I know very little of TCU's season other than they played the 44th toughest SOS per Warren Nolan, compared to TAMU playing the 8th toughest. TAMU won more games than TCU. The Super will be played in TAMU's house. I give the edge to TAMU....
Miami: Speaking of RPI and SOS, the Hurricanes played the 5th toughest schedule, and hold the #3 RPI. Boston College is 51st and 29th respectively. The Eagles had a losing conference record and rose through the Oxford Regional as the 3-seed to win it. It was the 1st NCAA postseason for them since 2009, and now it's their 1st Super Regional...ever. Miami is an old hand at these things...
Texas Tech: I've read a ton about how people felt Texas Tech was the weakest of the national seeds (it was easily Clemson - their run in the ACCT earned them a regional host, but not a damn national seed. Their pitching and defense is atrocious) and that if a SEC team had to travel for their Super Regional - should they get that far - then they should hope to travel to Lubbock. Still, ECU was the 3-seed in the UVA Regional and their advance was as surprising as BC's was.
Louisville: I know very little about either team except that UL won the whole thing a couple yrs back, right? They have a great RPI and SOS, while UCSB not so much. UL has already won 50 gms compared to UCSB just getting to 40 wins. The Super is played in Louisville.
Good post but Mississippi State are the Bulldogs not the Rebels (Ole Miss) and Louisville has never won the whole thing. They did play in Omaha in 2007, 2013, 2014 but never won it all.
Coastal is always one of those teams that has a chip on their shoulders, and rightfully so. They actually have a better baseball history the last 10 or so years than do most power 5 schools, but they never get credit.
still..beating lsu in baton rouge isnt something one just shows up and accomplishes. A ton of history weighs down on a visiting team.
OSU will be a tough win for Carolina as well. They are extremely well rested, while Carolina is gassed. Throw in 100+ degree temperatures all weekend and humidity in the 70% range and Carolina could quickly run out of gas. Course..its only supposed to be in the low 90's in Oklahoma and humidty in the 60% range...so they could also be negatively affected by the weather...
Also..like lsu...there is a ton of history at Founders Field.... though OSU is one of the most elite baseball schools in America...so they wont be impressed..
End of the day though...I see Louisville winning it all...
BC playing smart baseball.
Top seeds losing left and right.
Well, one of my picks have come to fruition. Grats to Arizona for pulling through.
I got 5/8 not too shabby