Who is most likely to challenge Luka Garza for the 2021 NPOY?

[dukedevilz]

Garza should be the head and shoulders preseason favorite for NPOY by just about every publication. How wide is the gap - and who is the most likely challenger?

I don't know if I've necessarily captured the best candidates. Kansas, Kentucky, and Duke could have a few good ones. Villanova and Gonzaga's #2 option probably deserves some attention (JRE and Kispert, most likely). Some of these guys may not come back, but I suspect most of them will.

 

[JimboBBN]

BJ Boston

 

[MGC_07]

My heart wants to say Xavier Tillman but I don’t think he has the offense required to win an award like that.

Gonzaga will be pretty damn good. Could be Petrusev. My top 3 from this list would be Petrusev, Gillespie, and Butler.

 

[dukedevilz]

BJ Boston

He'd be on my short list of honorable mentions. Hard to really know how everyone is going to progress over the summer. Most knew who Obi Toppin was last year. But, no one was expecting he'd be the NPOY in 2020. Trae Young was a highly sought-after recruit - though, not a top 10 player, and certainly not seen as someone likely to lead the nation in scoring AND assists.

 

[jhmossy]

I’d probably say Jared Butler since I think Baylor will be a top 5 team for most of the year and Butler should be their best player. I could see Baylor being too balanced offensively though.

 

[dragonhawk1855]

Garza will have these to keep his scoring numbers down
Wieskamp who avg'd 14 ppg
CJ who avg'd 10 ppg
JBo a dbl digit scorer

Garza will not be required to score 20+ ppg, what I hope he improves on is in the blocks from 1.8 pg to over 2.25 blg and improve his rebounding from 9.8 to 10.5 + rpg.

expecting the scoring to be more balanced. like this
Garza 20 ppg
Wieskamp 15+ ppg
JBo 13+ ppg
CJ 13+ PPG
JT 8 ppg
CMac 7+ ppg
76 ppg +/- Depending on playing time and injuries/foul trouble.

as the top 6 scorers, the rest dictated on how much they play.

 

[kyjeff1]

My heart wants to say Xavier Tillman but I don’t think he has the offense required to win an award like that.

Gonzaga will be pretty damn good. Could be Petrusev. My top 3 from this list would be Petrusev, Gillespie, and Butler.

I want to go with Tillman as well, but who is going to run point? Watts?

I think Tillman is a complete player. He can rebound, he can defend, can stroke the three and create his own points in the paint, but Cassius was an all world point man last year. Kid was great, so without him, how will State look?

Heck, I think I could step in there with Cassius and look great, that's how good he was. If Rocket can run the offense half as well as Winston did, I think Tillman will be right there with Garza.

I'm Jelly though, I would love it if UK had players like Cassius, Luka and Tillman that stuck around for 4 years. At UK, apparently if you dunk the ball, you think you're good enough to enter the draft.

 

[WeAreDePaul]

If those are our options this next year is going to be even crappier than this year in CBB.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Garza should be the head and shoulders preseason favorite for NPOY by just about every publication. How wide is the gap - and who is the most likely challenger?

I don't know if I've necessarily captured the best candidates. Kansas, Kentucky, and Duke could have a few good ones. Villanova and Gonzaga's #2 option probably deserves some attention (JRE and Kispert, most likely). Some of these guys may not come back, but I suspect most of them will.

I think Franz Wagner will be on a tier with Tillman/TJD but I don't think any of them will be near Garza's numbers.

 

[MGC_07]

I want to go with Tillman as well, but who is going to run point? Watts?

I think Tillman is a complete player. He can rebound, he can defend, can stroke the three and create his own points in the paint, but Cassius was an all world point man last year. Kid was great, so without him, how will State look?

Heck, I think I could step in there with Cassius and look great, that's how good he was. If Rocket can run the offense half as well as Winston did, I think Tillman will be right there with Garza.

I'm Jelly though, I would love it if UK had players like Cassius, Luka and Tillman that stuck around for 4 years. At UK, apparently if you dunk the ball, you think you're good enough to enter the draft.

I'm actually really high on Rocket next year. He averaged 17.5 over the last 4 games. He was very on and off last year after he got healthy, but was really coming into his own to end the season. I don’t doubt his ability to shoot or score I’m just hoping we can run an effective offense with him at the helm.

Tillman is a really talented player. His defense is crazy, and he’s a great pick and roll big man. I think a lot of his offense was created in the him and Cassius pick and roll, and without Cash, who was the best point guard at using ball screens and making the right play out of them I’ve seen at MSU, he will have less easy buckets. He’s not dominant down low like Garza but he’s also not a great jump shooter. His athleticism helps but I just don’t think you run your offense through a guy like Tillman. I hope I’m wrong. His defense is still absolutely elite.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

If those are our options this next year is going to be even crappier than this year in CBB.

Don't worry, OP missed this news

Spoiler

 

[MGC_07]

I think Franz Wagner will be on a tier with Tillman/TJD but I don't think any of them will be near Garza's numbers.

Offensively? Sure, I could see them averaging a similar number of points. Do you think Franz Wagner and Xavier Tillman will be on the same tiers as players next year?

I would disagree. I think Franz will make an all Big Ten team, but I think Tillman will make an all american team.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Offensively? Sure, I could see them averaging a similar number of points. Do you think Franz Wagner and Xavier Tillman will be on the same tiers as players next year?

I would disagree. I think Franz will make an all Big Ten team, but I think Tillman will make an all american team.

There is a thread on the college basketball board about some of the best players in the country going into next season. Xavier Tillman and Trayce Jackson-Davis were both mentioned as being upper-tier players. I decided to see how Wagner could stack up to that tier of players.

(*note* this isn't meant to compare who is better between Wagner, Tillman, and TJD but rather show what type of potential Wagner has going into year 2. a full comparison would need to include a lot more like Tillman’s impressive 3apg. That wasn’t the goal of this because I already know Franz is behind in a 2019/20 comparison).

Tillman (junior)
14.2 ppg
10.6 rpg
.612 2pt FG%

TJD (freshman, 18 months older than Wagner, was on campus taking summer classes in June)
12.8 ppg
7.9 rpg
.522 2pt FG%

Wagner (freshman, didn't arrive to the United States until August 27th going into his freshman year)
13.0 ppg
6.2 rpg
.622 2pt FG%


My two takeways from this:

1. Wagner was really, really efficient inside the arc last year. That FG% being better than two of the better inside F/C's in the conference is impressive. Wagner shot 35% from three for Alba Berlin and it dropped to 31% from three his freshman year from the same distance. If you combine that FG% with the 35-38% 3pt shooter Wagner looks like he could be you get one hell of a scorer.

2. Wagner had a combination of being really young for his class and getting a late start on getting to campus after moving from another continent. Then to add to that, Wagner missed over a month in October/November with a wrist injury. That's a lot against a freshman in terms of development. Take a look at these splits between Nov/Dec and Jan/Feb/March

Nov/Dec:
26.1 mpg
8.2 ppg
3.4 rpg


Jan/Feb/March
33.1 mpg
13.2 ppg
6.67 rpg


3. Take all of that into consideration and now consider he has a full offseason to work with program and he won't be the youngest player on the court night in and night out. The potential for a huge season is there.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

I didn't realize Wagner was so young last season.

Big Ten All Freshman Team:
CJ Fredrick. Age 20, born 7/10/1999
Kofi Cockburn. Age 20, born 9/1/1999
Trayce Jackson-Davis. Age 20, born 2/22/2000
Rocket Watts. Age 20, born 6/1/2000
Franz Wagner. Age 18, born 8/27/2001

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Offensively? Sure, I could see them averaging a similar number of points. Do you think Franz Wagner and Xavier Tillman will be on the same tiers as players next year?

I would disagree. I think Franz will make an all Big Ten team, but I think Tillman will make an all american team.

I think their upsides are similar, obviously Tillman being more proven.

 

[MGC_07]

There is a thread on the college basketball board about some of the best players in the country going into next season. Xavier Tillman and Trayce Jackson-Davis were both mentioned as being upper-tier players. I decided to see how Wagner could stack up to that tier of players.

(*note* this isn't meant to compare who is better between Wagner, Tillman, and TJD but rather show what type of potential Wagner has going into year 2. a full comparison would need to include a lot more like Tillman’s impressive 3apg. That wasn’t the goal of this because I already know Franz is behind in a 2019/20 comparison).

Tillman (junior)
14.2 ppg
10.6 rpg
.612 2pt FG%

TJD (freshman, 18 months older than Wagner, was on campus taking summer classes in June)
12.8 ppg
7.9 rpg
.522 2pt FG%

Wagner (freshman, didn't arrive to the United States until August 27th going into his freshman year)
13.0 ppg
6.2 rpg
.622 2pt FG%


My two takeways from this:

1. Wagner was really, really efficient inside the arc last year. That FG% being better than two of the better inside F/C's in the conference is impressive. Wagner shot 35% from three for Alba Berlin and it dropped to 31% from three his freshman year from the same distance. If you combine that FG% with the 35-38% 3pt shooter Wagner looks like he could be you get one hell of a scorer.

2. Wagner had a combination of being really young for his class and getting a late start on getting to campus after moving from another continent. Then to add to that, Wagner missed over a month in October/November with a wrist injury. That's a lot against a freshman in terms of development. Take a look at these splits between Nov/Dec and Jan/Feb/March

Nov/Dec:
26.1 mpg
8.2 ppg
3.4 rpg


Jan/Feb/March
33.1 mpg
13.2 ppg
6.67 rpg


3. Take all of that into consideration and now consider he has a full offseason to work with program and he won't be the youngest player on the court night in and night out. The potential for a huge season is there.

Everything you said I completely agree with, I think Wagner could have a very big year. To be clear, I would also consider Tillman above TJD as well, not just Franz. I think Franz has a chance to be a great player at UM, and I expect him to be that. Him and Livers make probably the best SF/PF duo in the Big Ten, and probably one of the best in the country.

I think if Tillman comes back, Franz has a chance to average more points but it’ll be close, but Tillman will average more rebounds, assists (I think we run more offense through him than this past year), blocks, and steals. Tillman has always been an advanced stats darling and will continue to be if he returns.

 

[kyjeff1]

I'm actually really high on Rocket next year. He averaged 17.5 over the last 4 games. He was very on and off last year after he got healthy, but was really coming into his own to end the season. I don’t doubt his ability to shoot or score I’m just hoping we can run an effective offense with him at the helm.

Tillman is a really talented player. His defense is crazy, and he’s a great pick and roll big man. I think a lot of his offense was created in the him and Cassius pick and roll, and without Cash, who was the best point guard at using ball screens and making the right play out of them I’ve seen at MSU, he will have less easy buckets. He’s not dominant down low like Garza but he’s also not a great jump shooter. His athleticism helps but I just don’t think you run your offense through a guy like Tillman. I hope I’m wrong. His defense is still absolutely elite.

Some guys take huge strides from one season to the next, even Juniors and Seniors. It comes down to the work Tillman put in since the season ended. He would do himself a huge favor if he strengthened his core, legs and stamina.

But the deciding factor will be Rocket Watts. He can score, like you said, he turned it on the second half of the season, but his role is going to be completely different now.

Winston knew when to set a play for someone else and he knew when to just take the shot. He was a true extension of Tom Izzo, it's going to take Watts a lot of time to perfect that skill.

 

[MGC_07]

Some guys take huge strides from one season to the next, even Juniors and Seniors. It comes down to the work Tillman put in since the season ended. He would do himself a huge favor if he strengthened his core, legs and stamina.

But the deciding factor will be Rocket Watts. He can score, like you said, he turned it on the second half of the season, but his role is going to be completely different now.

Winston knew when to set a play for someone else and he knew when to just take the shot. He was a true extension of Tom Izzo, it's going to take Watts a lot of time to perfect that skill.

Tillman actually has a great body, I would say he has pretty great stamina and physicals. He’s a lot better than say a Draymond or Nick Ward we have had in the past.

He just needs an offensive skill. Tillman has shown the ability to create his own shot but not with consistency. He can hit jumper but he’s not a great shooter. He can take it into the post and score but he’s not amazing at that. He’s an amazing screen setter and roll man, and he has great floor sense, but I’m not confident he can be a number 1 option on offense on a championship team, even though he is the best defensive player in the conference, possibly country.

As you were saying, I want Rocket Watts to have the ball in his hands in clutch time over Tillman, even though Tillman is the far better player right now.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

The correct answer is Jesus Bohannon.

 

[GE Nole]

I highly doubt an FSU player will come anywhere close to NPOY under Hamilton. We play so many players it’s just hard to accumulate stats.

Of the ones you listed I’d say Cunningham or Tilman.

 

[IUfanBorden]

If TJD develops a jumper, he's gonna be hard to deal with.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

If TJD develops a jumper, he's gonna be hard to deal with.

Might make 2nd team all Big Ten behind Franz

 

[dukedevilz]

If those are our options this next year is going to be even crappier than this year in CBB.

Seems par for the course. From the past season, the only returning All-Americans were Cassius Winston and Markus Howard. This upcoming season, we'll have Garza, Petrusev, and Butler... And with close to 1,000 scholarship players from Power 6 schools, it's inevitable that a few players will explode. Happens every year. Last year it was Obi Toppin and Luka Garza leading the way.

I think Franz Wagner will be on a tier with Tillman/TJD but I don't think any of them will be near Garza's numbers.

Maybe. He has a high ceiling, but so do a lot of rising sophomores. Not all of these guys are going to have the same trajectory. Being a top 10 player is no easy feat. You have to have a really, really productive season to be 1st or 2nd Team All-American. Here are some other talented sophomores that didn't make my top 10 list:

Wendell Moore, Duke
Matthew Hurt, Duke
Armando Bacot, UNC
DJ Carton, Marquette
Justin Moore, Villanova
Terrence Shannon, Texas Tech
Oscar Tshiebwe, West Virginia
Kofi Cockburn, Illinois
Brandon Williams, Arizona
Scottie Lewis, Florida
Trendon Watford, LSU
Drew Timme, Gonzaga

I highly doubt an FSU player will come anywhere close to NPOY under Hamilton. We play so many players it’s just hard to accumulate stats.

Of the ones you listed I’d say Cunningham or Tilman.

You might be right; he was the last player to make my cut, actually. Just seems like FSU doesn't have many ball-handlers, so I think it's feasible he gets 30+ Minutes. Barnes could be the do-everything type player where he averages something like 16 ppg, 7 reb, 5 assists. If FSU is a top 10 team, I could see him making 1st or 2nd Team AA.

As of right now, Barnes is the only player without a vote. So, maybe I could have gone with someone else.

 

[JC for 3]

Sarr.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Seems par for the course. From the past season, the only returning All-Americans were Cassius Winston and Markus Howard. This upcoming season, we'll have Garza, Petrusev, and Butler... And with close to 1,000 scholarship players from Power 6 schools, it's inevitable that a few players will explode. Happens every year. Last year it was Obi Toppin and Luka Garza leading the way.



Maybe. He has a high ceiling, but so do a lot of rising sophomores. Not all of these guys are going to have the same trajectory. Being a top 10 player is no easy feat. You have to have a really, really productive season to be 1st or 2nd Team All-American. Here are some other talented sophomores that didn't make my top 10 list:

Wendell Moore, Duke
Matthew Hurt, Duke
Armando Bacot, UNC
DJ Carton, Marquette
Justin Moore, Villanova
Terrence Shannon, Texas Tech
Oscar Tshiebwe, West Virginia
Kofi Cockburn, Illinois
Brandon Williams, Arizona
Scottie Lewis, Florida
Trendon Watford, LSU
Drew Timme, Gonzaga



You might be right; he was the last player to make my cut, actually. Just seems like FSU doesn't have many ball-handlers, so I think it's feasible he gets 30+ Minutes. Barnes could be the do-everything type player where he averages something like 16 ppg, 7 reb, 5 assists. If FSU is a top 10 team, I could see him making 1st or 2nd Team AA.

As of right now, Barnes is the only player without a vote. So, maybe I could have gone with someone else.

I just thought if TJD was being considered Franz deserved it. Their second halves of the season were similar and Franz did it:

1. Being 18 months younger.
2. Moving to the country (and campus) 2 1/2 months after TJD got to Indiana.
3. Losing a month early on due to a broken wrist.

 

[dukedevilz]

There is a thread on the college basketball board about some of the best players in the country going into next season. Xavier Tillman and Trayce Jackson-Davis were both mentioned as being upper-tier players. I decided to see how Wagner could stack up to that tier of players.

lol did you copy and paste this from the Michigan board? Sounds like you're talking about this very thread.

TJD was 3rd Team All-Conference. Wagner was not even Honorable Mention. Maybe that's a perception problem? But, TJD had a player efficiency rating of 27.6, while Wagner was 16.8. That's a huge difference. Maybe Wagner will be an All-American? Idk, it's possible. I just think TJD has a higher ceiling for 2021. And I would probably put Cockburn above Wagner, too.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

lol did you copy and paste this from the Michigan board? Sounds like you're talking about this very thread.

TJD was 3rd Team All-Conference. Wagner was not even Honorable Mention. Maybe that's a perception problem? But, TJD had a player efficiency rating of 27.6, while Wagner was 16.8. That's a huge difference. Maybe Wagner will be an All-American? Idk, it's possible. I just think TJD has a higher ceiling for 2021. And I would probably put Cockburn above Wagner, too.

I copy and pasted what I wrote about Franz Wagner over there.

You aren’t considering the stack of things against Franz development and he still scored more in Big Ten play than TJD with a better 2pt FG%.

TJD: 18 months older. Arrived at Indiana in early June. No preseason injury.

Wagner: 18 months younger. Didn’t move to the U.S. from Germany until the last week in August. Preseason broken wrist missing 5 weeks from October to November.


Development isn’t linear and happens on a case by case basis, but logically Wagner would be in for a bigger year 1 to year 2 jump than TJD would be.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

And no, I don’t predict Wagner will be an all American. I do think he’s on the same tier as TJD going into 2021 though.

 

[GE Nole]

Seems par for the course. From the past season, the only returning All-Americans were Cassius Winston and Markus Howard. This upcoming season, we'll have Garza, Petrusev, and Butler... And with close to 1,000 scholarship players from Power 6 schools, it's inevitable that a few players will explode. Happens every year. Last year it was Obi Toppin and Luka Garza leading the way.



Maybe. He has a high ceiling, but so do a lot of rising sophomores. Not all of these guys are going to have the same trajectory. Being a top 10 player is no easy feat. You have to have a really, really productive season to be 1st or 2nd Team All-American. Here are some other talented sophomores that didn't make my top 10 list:

Wendell Moore, Duke
Matthew Hurt, Duke
Armando Bacot, UNC
DJ Carton, Marquette
Justin Moore, Villanova
Terrence Shannon, Texas Tech
Oscar Tshiebwe, West Virginia
Kofi Cockburn, Illinois
Brandon Williams, Arizona
Scottie Lewis, Florida
Trendon Watford, LSU
Drew Timme, Gonzaga



You might be right; he was the last player to make my cut, actually. Just seems like FSU doesn't have many ball-handlers, so I think it's feasible he gets 30+ Minutes. Barnes could be the do-everything type player where he averages something like 16 ppg, 7 reb, 5 assists. If FSU is a top 10 team, I could see him making 1st or 2nd Team AA.

As of right now, Barnes is the only player without a vote. So, maybe I could have gone with someone else.

Noles have Anthony Polite, Rayquan Evans, and RaiQuan Gray at a minimum for ball handlers.

The most any recent true freshman has played at FSU is 74% of the minutes, which was Malik Beasley in 2016. But that was not a deep basketball team and we had some major injuries. 74% of the minutes is just under 30 mpg.

The most any recent true freshman has played on a top 25 FSU squad was Jon Isaac in 2017 at 60% of the total minutes. 60% of minutes is 24 mpg.

Given that Scottie is better than Malik, but the team is also deeper and better, I think somewhere between 25-27 mpg feels right. Probably 28-30 in February and March.

Keep in mind that Trent Forrest led FSU in minutes last season and he only played 76.4% of the total minutes.

 

[Villian07]

The homer in me thinks that both David Johnson and Samuel Williamson both have a chance to be dark horse candidates to become two of the most improved players in the nation. I don’t expect them to be in any POY conversations but I certainly expect them to make huge leaps as sophomores. ESP since we lost so much, they will be called upon to do a lot, along with Jones and Williams.

 

[boilerzz]

I'm pretty sure the order of the favorites goes:

1. Luka Garza's left eyebrow
2. Luka Garza's right eyebrow
3. Cade Cunningham

 

[kyjeff1]

Hopefully the Coronavirus won't be the MVP for this season.

 

[boilerzz]

If TJD develops a jumper, he's gonna be hard to deal with.

And if I grow 6 inches and improve my vertical by 24 inches, I can dunk a basketball.

Spoiler

Both are equally likely.

 

[hawkit3113]

Weiskamp or maybe J Bo

 

[dukedevilz]

I voted for Sam Hauser. I think UVA is likely to be a top 5 team. And what I notice, is when you have talented players that sit out a year, they tend to have freakishly outstanding seasons. 18+ months of improving under the tutelage of Tony Bennett? Yeah, Hauser is going to be a problem. A career 3-point shooter of 44.5% and an effective field goal percentage around 61%. This kid doesn't mess around.

Mark Few has had 3 kids in the past 6 seasons that transferred to Spokane, sat out a year, and were All-Americans in their first season... Kyle Wiltjer, Nigel Goss-Williams, and Brandon Clarke. Absolutely expect Hauser to be an All-American. Bennett has never had any transfer of Hauser's caliber, IMO. Anthony Gill and Braxton Key were solid contributors, but not stars. Hauser is the missing piece which should make UVA a contender once again.

 

[dukedevilz]

Cade Cunningham is probably the most talented player. Though, I'm not sure he's the most likely challenger, simply because he will be docked considerably for not being on a great team. Even if Oklahoma State was eligible for the tournament, I'm not sold they would make it. Trae Young wasn't the NPOY in 2018 when OU made it as a 10 seed in the tournament. Young lead the nation in points AND assists. If Oklahoma State could be a top 25 team, which seems a little doubtful, then his chances would go up significantly.

 

[jhmossy]

I voted for Sam Hauser. I think UVA is likely to be a top 5 team. And what I notice, is when you have talented players that sit out a year, they tend to have freakishly outstanding seasons. 18+ months of improving under the tutelage of Tony Bennett? Yeah, Hauser is going to be a problem. A career 3-point shooter of 44.5% and an effective field goal percentage around 61%. This kid doesn't mess around.

Mark Few has had 3 kids in the past 6 seasons that transferred to Spokane, sat out a year, and were All-Americans in their first season... Kyle Wiltjer, Nigel Goss-Williams, and Brandon Clarke. Absolutely expect Hauser to be an All-American. Bennett has never had any transfer of Hauser's caliber, IMO. Anthony Gill and Braxton Key were solid contributors, but not stars. Hauser is the missing piece which should make UVA a contender once again.

I doubt any UVA player under Bennett ever puts up the raw stats to win NPOY. He definitely has a great chance at one of the AA teams though. I am so excited to see him play. He is a matchup nightmare.

 

[GE Nole]

I doubt any UVA player under Bennett ever puts up the raw stats to win NPOY. He definitely has a great chance at one of the AA teams though. I am so excited to see him play. He is a matchup nightmare.

I wish Forrest had one more year in Tallahassee. Would have been awesome to see him and Hauser go at it.

 

[Ruxy Poo]

For the record I’ve never heard of any of these guys and also basketball season isn’t happening. You’re a fool if you think it is

 

[dukedevilz]

I doubt any UVA player under Bennett ever puts up the raw stats to win NPOY. He definitely has a great chance at one of the AA teams though. I am so excited to see him play. He is a matchup nightmare.

There's truth to what you're saying. A slower pace invariably hurts the bottom-line stats. However, Kaminsky was NPOY in 2015 when Wisconsin had the 7th slowest pace in the country. Malcolm Brogdon was 1st Team AA in 2016; 2nd Team in 2015... And then there's Willie Cauley-Stein. He averaged 8.9 ppg and 6.4 rebounds in 2015 - and that was good enough for 1st Team All-American.

If UVA is a top 5 team, and If Hauser can score 15+ ppg and shoot really well from the floor, he has a great shot at being 1st Team. I like his chances.