What the NCAA Tournament would look like if it copied the CFP model

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

I'm just gonna use the final regular season AP rankings, and then do what the CFP does by excluding all non-P5 programs. Let's see what fun we can have with this.......


*Non-P5 programs will only be included under the CFP model if they finished the regular season undefeated, or #1.

2019-2020"
1 Kansas
2 Gonzaga
3 Dayton
4 Florida State

CFP model
1 Kansas
2 Florida State (4)
3 Baylor (5)
4 Kentucky (8)

2018-2019
1 Gonzaga
2 Virginia
3 North Carolina
4 Kentucky

CFP model
1 Gonzaga
2 Virginia
3 North Carolina
4 Kentucky

2017-2018
1 Virginia
2 Villanova
3 Xavier
4 Michigan State

CFP model
1 Virginia
2 Michigan State (4)
3 Duke (5)
4 Michigan (7)

2016-2017
1 Kansas
2 Villanova
3 UCLA
4 Gonzaga

CFP model
1 Kansas
2 UCLA (3)
3 Oregon (5)
4 North Carolina (6)

2015-2016
1 Kansas
2 Michigan State
3 Villanova
4 Virginia

CFP model
1 Kansas
2 Michigan State
3 Virginia (4)
4 Oklahoma (6)

2014-2015
1 Kentucky
2 Duke
3 Virginia
4 Villanova

CFP model
1 Kentucky
2 Duke
3 Virginia
4 Arizona (5)


Now before we look at what the actual Final Four teams were in those years in the next post, let's review the representation of teams under this format:

AP rankings-
Villanova x4
Virginia x4
Kansas x3
Gonzaga x3
Kentucky x2
Michigan State x2
Dayton
Florida State
North Carolina
Xavier
Duke
UCLA

CFP model-
Virginia x4
Kansas x3
Kentucky x3
North Carolina x2
Michigan State x2
Duke x2
Florida State
Baylor
Gonzaga
Michigan
UCLA
Oregon
Arizona

12 different teams from the final regular season AP rankings and 13 under the exclusive CFP model, in the same time frame as the CFP's existence.

Conference representation:
ACC- 4
Big East- 2
Big Ten- 1
Big 12- 1
Pac 12- 1
SEC- 1
WCC- 1
A 10- 1

CFP model:
ACC- 4
Pac 12- 3
Big Ten- 2
Big 12- 2
SEC- 1
WCC- 1

By comparison, in the CFP there have been 11 teams that have made an appearance since its inception, and that's including the extra 4 teams that were added to the list this year for the CFP, as college basketball hasn't finished its season yet..........

And now for what actually happened-

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

NCAA Final Four results-

2014-2015
1 Kentucky
1 Wisconsin
7 Michigan State
1 Duke

Duke 68, Wisconsin 63

2015-2016
2 Villanova
2 Oklahoma
1 North Carolina
10 Syracuse

Villanova 77, North Carolina 74

2016-2017
7 South Carolina
1 Gonzaga
3 Oregon
1 North Carolina

North Carolina 71, Gonzaga 65

2017-2018
11 Loyola-Chicago
3 Michigan
1 Villanova
1 Kansas

Villanova 79, Michigan 62

2018-2019
2 Michigan State
3 Texas Tech
1 Virginia
5 Auburn

Virginia 85, Texas Tech 77 OT


2019-2020
*No tournament because f*** 2020.

 

[Original_Irish]

Would be interesting if a CFP model would let GU in.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

And the breakdown-

North Carolina x2
Villanova x2
Michigan State x2
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Duke
Oklahoma
Syracuse
South Carolina
Oregon
Gonzaga
Loyola-Chicago
Michigan
Kansas
Virginia
Texas Tech
Auburn


By conference-
ACC- 4
SEC- 3
Big Ten- 3
Big 12- 3
Big East- 1
Pac 12- 1
MVC- 1
WCC- 1


So in just those 5 seasons (two less than the CFP), there have been 17 different teams in the Final Four.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Bump.

 

[fluoxetine]

This makes no sense. It is much more difficult to go undefeated in a basketball season than a football season. You are just trying to make some dumb statement about the CFP.

There was only one non-P5 that ever had any kind of argument for getting into the CFP (2017 UCF) and they had played absolutely nobody. The only played 3 games against even decent competition, needed OT to win one of them, and won another by 1 possession.

There is no Gonzaga in college football.

 

[fluoxetine]

Note UCFs win against Auburn that year is not relevant because it happened in a bowl, i.e. AFTER the CFP selection.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

This makes no sense. It is much more difficult to go undefeated in a basketball season than a football season. You are just trying to make some dumb statement about the CFP.

There was only one non-P5 that ever had any kind of argument for getting into the CFP (2017 UCF) and they had played absolutely nobody. The only played 3 games against even decent competition, needed OT to win one of them, and won another by 1 possession.

There is no Gonzaga in college football.

Lol u mad.

 

[dukedevilz]

Would be interesting if a CFP model would let GU in.

Yup. Gonzaga doesn't play in the right conference. CFP is designed to keep the little guy out.

G5 schools actually had a better shot with the BCS format, which took into account hundreds of variables, and not simply 13 votes from a committee. TCU, Boise State, and Cincinnati were all in the top 4 at some point in the BCS era. Utah probably should have been a top 4 team in '08, as evidenced by their convincing win of Alabama. In the CFP, no G5 school has ever been higher than 8th. If the playoffs expanded to 8 teams, you wouldn't see a Cincinnati or Boise State get into the playoffs, because then they would be ranked 9th or 10th. Only chance to get in, would be to beat one of the P5 conference champions and go undefeated.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Yup. Gonzaga doesn't play in the right conference. CFP is designed to keep the little guy out.

G5 schools actually had a better shot with the BCS format, which took into account hundreds of variables, and not simply 13 votes from a committee. TCU, Boise State, and Cincinnati were all in the top 4 at some point in the BCS era. Utah probably should have been a top 4 team in '08, as evidenced by their convincing win of Alabama. In the CFP, no G5 school has ever been higher than 8th. If the playoffs expanded to 8 teams, you wouldn't see a Cincinnati or Boise State get into the playoffs, because then they would be ranked 9th or 10th. Only chance to get in, would be to beat one of the P5 conference champions and go undefeated.

That depends on the criteria for the 8-team playoff and how the revised rankings and/or committee would look.

I stand by the idea that whatever the next playoff expansion is, has to include the G5 in some capacity or you might as well tell them to break off and have their own sub-division playoff and champion.

What is the incentive for these G5 programs existing in the FBS outside of money?

 

[CB3UK]

I've made the argument a thousand times to our fan base who seems to view all of this stuff bass awkward.

If basketball determined its champ the way football does now and has in past models as well, we'd have over 30 national championships.

Instead, we have 8.

For some reason our fan base largely defends the NCAAT and then simultaneously does the same for the CFBP. Why? Both of them literally **** us in keister when you consider what sports we are good at.


The reality is the NCAAT is bloated and the CFBP needs expansion. Everything in life is about balance and moderation. 4 teams is just as stupid as 68. Football and basketball are apples to oranges, but P5 football is the only level in the entire sport that doesn't have a legitimate playoff.

They can deal with 8, and the NCAAT should truthfully only be 16 teams.

How I wish we could just claim titles based on finishing the season ranked #1 in basketball polls! **** yea give UK some of that retroactive title action.

What a joke.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

I've made the argument a thousand times to our fan base who seems to view all of this stuff bass awkward.

If basketball determined its champ the way football does now and has in past models as well, we'd have over 30 national championships.

Instead, we have 8.

For some reason our fan base largely depends the NCAAT and then simultaneously does the same for the CFBP. Why? Both of them literally **** us in keister when you consider what sports we are good at.


The reality is the NCAAT is bloated and the CFBP needs expansion. Everything in life is about balance and moderation. 4 teams is just as stupid as 68. Football and basketball are apples to oranges, but P5 football is the only level in the entire sport that doesn't have a legitimate playoff.

They can deal with 8, and the NCAAT should truthfully only be 16 teams.

How I wish we could just claim titles based on finishing the season ranked #1 in basketball polls! **** yea give UK some of that retroactive title action.

What a joke.

Last 5 champions:
2019 Virginia (ACC reg. season champs)
2018 Villanova (Big East tourney champs)
2017 UNC (ACC reg. season champs)
2016 Villanova (Big East reg. season champs)
2015 Duke (#2 in final reg. season polls.....)

None of the last 5 NCAA champions won both their regular season and conference tournament titles. In fact, Duke accomplished neither, but because of their record, somehow finished #2 in the AP and Coaches Polls.........

I agree that the NCAA Tournament could stand to shrink, not grow, but they absolutely have it right to at least include every conference's champion.
(even though the mid-majors probably need to re-think the whole 'conference tournament winner = sending your best team' concept........)

 

[CB3UK]

Last 5 champions:
2019 Virginia (ACC reg. season champs)
2018 Villanova (Big East tourney champs)
2017 UNC (ACC reg. season champs)
2016 Villanova (Big East reg. season champs)
2015 Duke (#2 in final reg. season polls.....)

None of the last 5 NCAA champions won both their regular season and conference tournament titles. In fact, Duke accomplished neither, but because of their record, somehow finished #2 in the AP and Coaches Polls.........

I agree that the NCAA Tournament could stand to shrink, not grow, but they absolutely have it right to at least include every conference's champion.
(even though the mid-majors probably need to re-think the whole 'conference tournament winner = sending your best team' concept........)

Bingo. Granted, football has a lot less upsets. I give the football guys that much.

My issue with the playoff is youve got at least one P5 conference left out every year. Thats bs. The entire G5 is playing a season for what? Absolutely nothing. You play games to win and compete for championships.

The NCAAT at least gives those teams a shot. But conversely, you have these idiotic bubble teams and play in games. "Gee golly...We've just got to decide if 18-13 Ole Miss or 19-12 Virginia Tech belongs in." Newsflash....neither of them do.

The people who argue about expanding the football playoff devaluing the regular season are full of shit. We saw plenty of evidence in the NFL to that point yesterday.

We also saw TCU and Baylor excluded because the Big 12 didn't have a title game and it wasn't fair to the conference winners who played an extra game.

Then this year we have "aw **** it, Ohio State only played reg season games and then the B1G title game...**** everyone else who played a full season."

Can we at least make a pretense of trying to be equitable about this? Both systems are horseshit.

 

[dukedevilz]

That depends on the criteria for the 8-team playoff and how the revised rankings and/or committee would look.

I stand by the idea that whatever the next playoff expansion is, has to include the G5 in some capacity or you might as well tell them to break off and have their own sub-division playoff and champion.

What is the incentive for these G5 programs existing in the FBS outside of money?

Such a charade. Why is that the FCS and D2 and D3 can have 16-team playoffs? Heck, that would produce a heck of a lot more revenue. After going undefeated in 2008 and 2009, Boise State played TCU in bowl games in back-to-back years after beating a top 15 team, both years, in Oregon. Nice to pair up two dominant G5 schools against each other. What does that prove? Would have been nice to see them play a P5 school. TCU had their shot against Wisconsin in 2010 and took advantage of it, which ultimately propelled them into the Big 12.

Something has gotta change. G5 schools clearly aren't getting a fair shake. They either have to expand the playoffs, or else the G5 schools will file a class action lawsuit. One of those two things will happen within the next decade. College Football is becoming a bit stale anyway. In 7 years of the CFP, there have been 28 spots available. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma have taken 20 of those 28 playoffs spots. Was kind of cool in the late 90's all the way to mid 2000's to see a different champion every year. It's quickly been transformed into an oligarchy of a sport.

 

[dukedevilz]

There are two monumental differences between basketball and football. To be a dominant team in football, you need depth. Injuries occur, yes, but the other team can also exploit any of your weak links. Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State have more talent anyone else. But, they also have more depth. 4-5 really good players simply aren't enough. You need 5-6 really good players on both sides of the field to have a shot. An exceptionally talented quarterback can often compensate for some of the team's deficiencies, but not entirely. Also, football can't play a ridiculous amount of games in a short period of time. A 16 team playoff would be the absolute max.

Basketball has the advantage of only needing 2-3 really good players, the ability to play a myriad of games in a shortened time frame, and the great equalizer of the 3-point shot, which gives the underdog a realistic shot at some games. Would be cool to see more parity in college football, but I don't foresee that happening anytime soon.