US economy grew at 3.2% in the first quarter

Discussion in 'College Football Soundoff' started by Deathroll, Apr 26, 2019.

  1. Deathroll

    Deathroll Well-Known Member
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  2. hawkit3113

    hawkit3113 Well-Known Member
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  3. Deathroll

    Deathroll Well-Known Member
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    The only downside is that my phone rings off the hook from headhunters calling me. Literally 5-10 per day.
     
  4. hawkit3113

    hawkit3113 Well-Known Member
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    Laughing

    Not quite like the previous 8 years, huh?
     
  5. Duckdude73

    Duckdude73 Moderator
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    But he tweets mean and believes that people should have to come here legally, the bastard!
     
  6. Duckdude73

    Duckdude73 Moderator
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    Very similar experience my friend,night and day different now.
     
  7. leatherhemet

    leatherhemet Well-Known Member
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    Me too.
     
  8. jeans15

    jeans15 Well-Known Member
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    Lord MAGA promised peace and prosperity in the galaxy.
     
  9. Stochdoc

    Stochdoc Well-Known Member
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    I guess this is the recession I've heard so much about.
     
  10. Matte Black

    Matte Black Well-Known Member
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    Can't rationalize with sheep; they'll find something to whine about.

    and





    [​IMG]
     
  11. uquackmeup

    uquackmeup Well-Known Member
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    and yet the markets are in the red, can never figure out what drives the markets
     
  12. leatherhemet

    leatherhemet Well-Known Member
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    1..stop bus...2...open door lol.
     
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  13. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Obviously the time period from 2009-2011 was tough due to the recession that was largely set up during the Clinton and Bush years. But the 4 years leading up to Trump was pretty darn explosive economic growth, no? Certainly was in my neck of the woods. Housing between 2013 and 2017 exploded. Stock market roared higher. New jobs everywhere.

    Seems like the current leaders are doing a good job of continuing the momentum that was already in place.
     
  14. dornstar

    dornstar Well-Known Member
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    Globalism.
     
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  15. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    Best start of a year since 2015 (3.3%). 2013 was 3.6%. 2012 was 3.2%.

    Would be nice to start years off at 3.6% again. But that was the end of the period we still had the top end of the Bush tax cuts, (which ended starting january 1, 2013.

    The flip side of those tax cuts impacting the GDP is the deficit fell from 1.1 Trillion to 680 billion when they went away.

    That's always the trade off. Cutting taxes without cutting government expenditures will always stimulate growth. But it also causes larger deficits. If you cut both taxes and expenditures you don't get the growth but don't get the deficit increase.
     
    15 DawginSC, Apr 26, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2019
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  16. Deathroll

    Deathroll Well-Known Member
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    Uhhhh no. Things went from godawful to merely bad around 2015. And the Great Recession really started in 2007. Things didn’t really get rolling until the Fall of 2017. It’s been a night and day difference since then.
     
  17. Cdub2k

    Cdub2k Well-Known Member
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    Cdub2k's economy showed a 12% decrease last quarter.
     
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  18. Rod Dangerfield

    Rod Dangerfield Well-Known Member
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  19. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    It's good we're almost back to where we were 4 years ago. Well done Trump.
     
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  20. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
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    Democrats don’t like this , they want to be Venezuela
     
  21. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Great Recession started impacting in 2007. It's foundation was laid long before.

    Going from godawful to bad is explosive growth. You don't jump from putrid to excellent in one quarter. The economy was growing quite well in 2013, 2014, 2015 etc. It was just having to still come up from the depths that the Bush and Clinton admins set it up to sink to.
     
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  22. Fear-the-Spear

    Fear-the-Spear Well-Known Member
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    Government created jobs don't count.
     
  23. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Cool. I was talking housing and tech created jobs.

    Seems like this might be a thread occupied by chest beaters who are unable to talk objectively about facts instead of just pumping up their guy. It's like the conference honks.

    I don't really care about who gets credit. Just like to see good jobs being done. I'll move along to somewhere else where people can be objective and rational.
     
  24. leatherhemet

    leatherhemet Well-Known Member
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    GDP growth rates:


    [​IMG]

    Your figures may be a little misleading. Those rates are not good, when you consider it is supposed to be a bounce out of a recession. Reagan had 6 and 7% growth rates coming out of the '82 recession. Why was there a negative GR at the beginning of '14 and several quarters well below 2%?
     
    23 leatherhemet, Apr 26, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2019
  25. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    So... military, teachers, post office workers, librarians, police... they all don't count as "working"?

    Odd take.
     
  26. hawkit3113

    hawkit3113 Well-Known Member
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    Nope. It's not organic growth
     
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  27. Deathroll

    Deathroll Well-Known Member
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    It was very patchy in those years as many have pointed out. Some areas like Tech and Fracking and a lot of the medical industry did fine.......interestingly blue states did noticeably better.

    Meanwhile for vast swathes of the country there was no recovery - for years and years. Overall, it was the weakest recovery from a recession in US history.

    Since the Fall of 2017, growth has been significantly stronger - interestingly red states are now doing much much better and blue states have slowed. I’m convinced government policies have had a direct impact on which states/regions prospered while others languished.
     
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  28. Fear-the-Spear

    Fear-the-Spear Well-Known Member
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    You are the one that said it. I just put it in proper context
     
  29. Fear-the-Spear

    Fear-the-Spear Well-Known Member
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    Of course they count as working, just not economic growth
     
  30. CB3UK

    CB3UK Well-Known Member
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    How about a compromise. Such hard headed jackasses everywhere.

    Let the Mexicans who want to work come in and become citizens. We get their labor and tax money, and a new conservative voting base. Mexicans hold conservative family values.

    Take the Dems, and relocate them to Mexico. They can live in a 3rd world paradise like they are trying to turn this country in to, they can legitimately claim to have left the country due to Trump...its a win win for everyone.
     
  31. darkwing27

    darkwing27 Well-Known Member
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    Yeah I started to notice great things around 2014.
     
  32. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    Reagan also didn't have a congress adverse to increasing government spending. Obama was dealing with a congress that after the initial acceptance of stimulus packages (while the democrats had control), went on to demand relatively revenue neutral government policies. From 2009 to 2014 US spending was basically flat (about 3.5 trillion a year). We started increasing spending at a consistent rate after 2014... which (combined with the Tax Cut from Trump in 2016) led to the much more consistent growth numbers post the first quarter of 2014. The tax reform act of 2012 raised taxes (which had a significant positive impact on deficits which were huge), but also causes GDP growth to slow. It's no surprise that the increase in GDP growth is matching the increase in the deficit (up to 800 billion in 2018 and projected to top 1 trillion in 2019)

    The comparison with Reagan is that he instituted his tax cuts and federal spending increased significantly. It was 590 billion in spending in 1980. By 1986 it was at 1 trillion. Nearly doubling government spending while decreasing taxes will increase the GDP a lot. That wasn't allowed to happen in 2009-2014

    The reality of economics is pretty simple in terms of stimulating the GDP. You decrease taxes and increase spending (which causes large deficits). This floods the economy with money and causes the GDP to rise. That's pretty much what the government can do (since the Fed controls interest rates). But there's always a price to pay... that's the debt.

    Obama and the GOP congress took some steps (however minor) to fight the deficit side while still trying to grow. That was why we had 5 years of no increased spending and a tax increase (the repeal of the top end of the Bush tax cut). That comes with a price... and that's consistent GDP growth.

    It's hard to fight both battles at once. The job done by Obama in concert with the GOP congress was actually pretty impressive at making a little progress toward both GDP growth and deficit (not debt) reduction. Reagan and the Democrat congress in the 80's... as well as Trump with a mostly GOP congress to date just punted on the deficit side and worked on GDP.
     
    31 DawginSC, Apr 26, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2019
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  33. Deathroll

    Deathroll Well-Known Member
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    We were running deficits of 10% of gdp there for a few years. We had not had deficits like that since we were fighting WWII. That could not have continued much longer and despite all that spending, we had THE most anemic recovery from a recession in US history. The policies obviously weren’t working.
     
  34. trunole1

    trunole1 Well-Known Member
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    :rolleyes:
    Dow 17,759 April 2015 Dow 26,437 April 2019
     
    33 trunole1, Apr 26, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2019
  35. trunole1

    trunole1 Well-Known Member
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    Truth! Printing money has never been a sound fiscal policy.
     
  36. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    You're not really using that term right.

    Organic growth in an economy is when growth occurs without increased debt incurred either by private entities or by governmental ones.

    So if the government tax receipts increase and expenditures increase (say by hiring more soldiers) but the deficit level is flat... the growth is still considered organic. If GDP growth is based on increased debt... it's not.

    Economically speaking, there's no difference at all between economic growth from the government paying more public employees or private industry paying more private employees if there is no difference in total debt held in the US in either scenario. Debt is the primary driver of if growth is organic or not.
     
  37. hawkit3113

    hawkit3113 Well-Known Member
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    So wrong. So so wrong.
     
  38. leatherhemet

    leatherhemet Well-Known Member
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    I am the biggest critic of Repub spending of anyone, believe me.

    Show me the Reagan deficit emergency.

    https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/federal-receipt-and-outlay-summary

    Reagans' policies did not even take effect til about '83..some even later. The deficit increased from 74b to 207b from 1980 - 1983. The deficit then bascially stayed the same til '86 then decreased from 220b to 152b in 1989. The early 90s recession hurt the deficit as the chart shows.

    Revenues went from 600b to one trillion, from 1983 - 1989. (receipts column above)

    All the figures shown in above chart.
     
  39. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    This is true.

    The problem is we had painted ourselves into an awful corner. The "ideal" way for government to work is that you incur large deficits when economic crashes happen... and pay down that debt you incurred when the economy had recovered.

    Too many politicians decided that debt funding growth even when the economy wasn't in crisis was a good idea. We had been doing that for decades prior to the 2007/8 collapse.

    Deficit spending in times of economic crises is absolutely the way to go. Cutting back on spending and increasing taxes when the crises are over is ALSO the way to go.

    We never, ever, ever take that second step in the US. While deficits briefly receded under Obama thanks to the flat spending from 2009-2014 and the repeal of some of the Bush tax cuts in 2012. But that brief period of debt attention ended as teh 2016 elections approached and has been completely thrown away post 2016. Spending is going up, taxes have gone down and deficits are slated to be back above 1 trillion dollars for 2019.

    Yes, that causes growth. But the economy is solid now... deficit reduction should be the focus, not economic growth.
     
  40. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    Lol. I have a bit of background in this area. But everyone is welcome to their own views.

    I'm simply saying you aren't using that term in the way an economist would.
     
  41. hawkit3113

    hawkit3113 Well-Known Member
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    So do I and I am not hear to teach you economics.
     

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