Updating the NCAAT Champions Projection List

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Went back and found the old thread. The rules go as follows:

-The NCAA champion is typically going to be a team that won either or both their regular and/or conference tournament titles.

-The majority of NCAA champions in the modern conference tournament era of CBB have at least reached their CT Finals

-NO TEAM has ever gone on to win a national championship after failing to reach at least the semifinals of their conference tournament

-There's only 3 outliers to any of these rules:
2014 UConn (no RS or CT title, reached AAC Tournament Finals)
2015 Duke (no RS or CT title, reached ACC Tournament semies)
2023 UConn (no RS or CT title, reached Big East Tournament semies)

Last year's UConn team (4 seed) was the first non-1 seed to win the title since 2016 Villnova (2 seed).

Since 1999, when UConn won their first title, only 7 non-1 seeded teams have gone on to win the NCAA title: 2003 Syracuse (3), 2004 UConn (2), 2006 Florida (3), 2011 UConn (3), 2014 UConn (7), 2016 Villanova (2), 2023 UConn (4)


National champions since 2010:

2010 Duke (1 seed)- ACC Reg. and CT champions

2011 UConn (3 seed)- 9th in Big East, CT champions

2012 Kentucky (1 seed)- SEC Regular season champions, lost in CT Finals to Vanderbilt

2013 Louisville (1 seed)- Big East Reg. and CT champions

2014 UConn (7 seed)- 2nd in AAC, lost in CT Finals to Louisville

2015 Duke (1 seed)- 2nd in ACC, lost in CT Semies to Notre Dame

2016 Villanova (1 seed)- Big East Regular season champions, lost to Seton Hall in CT Finals

2017 North Carolina (1 seed)- ACC Regular Season champions, lost in CT Semies to Duke

2018 Villanova (2 seed)- 2nd in Big East, CT Champions

2019 Virginia (1 seed)- ACC Regular season champions, lost in CT Semies to Florida State

2021 Baylor (1 seed)- Big 12 Regular season champions, lost in CT Semies to Oklahoma State

2022 Kansas (1 seed)- Big 12 Reg. and CT champions

2023 UConn (4 seed)- 4th in Big East, lost in CT Semies to Marquette

 

[Necessary Roughness]

So, UConn won't win it this year.

 

[Rod Dangerfield]

Went back and found the old thread. The rules go as follows:

-The NCAA champion is typically going to be a team that won either or both their regular and/or conference tournament titles.

-The majority of NCAA champions in the modern conference tournament era of CBB have at least reached their CT Finals

-NO TEAM has ever gone on to win a national championship after failing to reach at least the semifinals of their conference tournament

-There's only 3 outliers to any of these rules:
2014 UConn (no RS or CT title, reached AAC Tournament Finals)
2015 Duke (no RS or CT title, reached ACC Tournament semies)
2023 UConn (no RS or CT title, reached Big East Tournament semies)

Last year's UConn team (4 seed) was the first non-1 seed to win the title since 2016 Villnova (2 seed).

Since 1999, when UConn won their first title, only 7 non-1 seeded teams have gone on to win the NCAA title: 2003 Syracuse (3), 2004 UConn (2), 2006 Florida (3), 2011 UConn (3), 2014 UConn (7), 2016 Villanova (2), 2023 UConn (4)


National champions since 2010:

2010 Duke (1 seed)- ACC Reg. and CT champions

2011 UConn (3 seed)- 9th in Big East, CT champions

2012 Kentucky (1 seed)- SEC Regular season champions, lost in CT Finals to Vanderbilt

2013 Louisville (1 seed)- Big East Reg. and CT champions

2014 UConn (7 seed)- 2nd in AAC, lost in CT Finals to Louisville

2015 Duke (1 seed)- 2nd in ACC, lost in CT Semies to Notre Dame

2016 Villanova (1 seed)- Big East Regular season champions, lost to Seton Hall in CT Finals

2017 North Carolina (1 seed)- ACC Regular Season champions, lost in CT Semies to Duke

2018 Villanova (2 seed)- 2nd in Big East, CT Champions

2019 Virginia (1 seed)- ACC Regular season champions, lost in CT Semies to Florida State

2021 Baylor (1 seed)- Big 12 Regular season champions, lost in CT Semies to Oklahoma State

2022 Kansas (1 seed)- Big 12 Reg. and CT champions

2023 UConn (4 seed)- 4th in Big East, lost in CT Semies to Marquette

What’s your point, bitch?

 

[HailToPitt725]

For the first time since 1977, the Duquesne Dukes are dancing in the NCAA Tournament. I have a lot of happy family and friends today… congrats to them and Coach Dambrot, who made his father proud today.

 

[Rod Dangerfield]

For the first time since 1977, the Duquesne Dukes are dancing in the NCAA Tournament. I have a lot of happy family and friends today… congrats to them and Coach Dambrot, who made his father proud today.

There’s no way it’s been since 1977!

 

[Random UK Fan]

Going to go ahead and proclaim UK the Offseason Champs for ‘24/‘25! Deal with it!

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

So with the above in mind, and respectfully excluding the mid-majors from consideration (as the ONLY true mid-major program to win the NCAA Tournament since it began seeding in 1979, was UNLV in 1990.), let's meet our contenders for the 2024 NCAA CBB Tournament National Championship:

ACC-
(Regular Season champ)
North Carolina
(Conference Tournament champ)
North Carolina State

(CT Semifinalists)
North Carolina
Virginia

**Pittsburgh n/s

Big 12-
(Regular Season champ)
Houston
(Conference Tournament champ)
Iowa State

(CT Semifinalists)
Houston
Baylor
Texas Tech

Big East-
(Regular Season & Conference Tournament champ)
Connecticut

(CT Semifinalists)
Marquette

**St. John's n/s
**Providence n/s

Big Ten-
(Regular Season champ)
Purdue
(Conference Tournament champ)
Illinois

(CT Semifinalists)
Wisconsin
Purdue
Nebraska

Pac 12-
(Regular Season champ)
Arizona
(Conference Tournament champ)
Oregon

(CT Semifinalists)
Colorado
Arizona
Washington State

SEC-
(Regular Season champ)
*Tennessee
(Conference Tournament champ)
Auburn

(CT Semifinalists)
Florida
Texas A&M
Mississippi State



*Tennessee is the only RS champion that did NOT reach the semifinals of their conference tournament, so they will be fighting against history


P.S. also if you want, I can add the contenders from some of the upper tier mid-major conferences, such as the AAC, MWC, WCC, A10, etc

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

What’s your point, bitch?

It means congrats for making the tournament!..........

 

[cdbearde]

Okay, we are talking BS, so here's mine.
UK has not played defense all year so when they get to the dance teams will not be expecting it, so they walk through to number 9!! 😉

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

I should note that this list will have to be amended for the teams that don't make the NCAA Tournament (obviously.....)


But for the next hour or so, these are the 24/25 teams that have a shot to win the national championship.

 

[IUfanBorden]

What’s your point, bitch?

You aint gotta worry about that list...




























Ever

 

[Rod Dangerfield]

You aint gotta worry about that list...




























Ever

Bet you any amount you can cover that the Cocks have a better chance than mighty Indiana. Bitch.

 

[IUfanBorden]

Bet you any amount you can cover that the Cocks have a better chance than mighty Indiana. Bitch.

Ahh, shut up. You dudes go to the tourney once every 11 years.

 

[HailToPitt725]

There’s no way it’s been since 1977!

They’re actually very similar to DePaul in that they were a former powerhouse that has struggled for the past few decades. Unfortunately for them, they landed in the A10 instead of the Big East. I’d love for Duquesne to continue building- it’s great two have good basketball programs in the Steel City!

 

[IUfanBorden]

I should note that this list will have to be amended for the teams that don't make the NCAA Tournament (obviously.....)


But for the next hour or so, these are the 24/25 teams that have a shot to win the national championship.

24 or 25? Naaaaah. Maybe 10, or so. Legit shot anyways.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Updated to exclude the teams that didn't make the NCAA Tournament.

That leaves 21/22 teams to pick from as the potential national champion.


Also, for fun, I checked on that formula that John Gasaway shares every year where he gives the 8 teams that can win a national championship based on KenPom stats. If you factor in which teams failed to make their conference tournament's semifinals, that leaves you with these teams to pick from:

2 Arizona
1 Houston
1 Connecticut
1 Purdue

(Creighton, Duke, Kentucky, Tennessee all failed to reach their CT semies)