The ACC preseason thread

Discussion in 'College Basketball Board' started by GE Nole, Sep 16, 2019.

  1. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    They went 8-10 in Pastner's first year when they were picked dead last. Hard to win in the ACC when you only have one top 100 recruit on your roster. Their depth is still lacking. Gotta like the fact that Pastner finally has multiple top 100 guys on his team in addition to a 20 point transfer. And I'm not saying they're definitely going .500. Just think they have a reasonable shot to do it this year.

    It's not a shoo-in by any means. But there are no juggernauts in the ACC like there was last year.
     
  2. TheDude1

    TheDude1 Well-Known Member
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    I can't wait to see Vernon Carey. I love watching a godo center, and he is one with quickness and great hands. I don't expect him to be as good as Elton, but my guess is there will be some similarities. Plus, Vernon can apparently shoot a little bit. Him and Hurt should be a nice combo (although they are obviously both frosh).

    Hoping Tre Jones improved his shot over the summer... he NEEDS to be a scorer as well as a passer.
     
  3. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    I think we are probably saying the same thing but to a different degree. I agree that GT will be improved. But they went 6-12 last year, and going from 6-12 to 10-10 is a sizable jump.

    I went and looked at the schedule and the road slate is rough. It includes @NCSU, @FSU, @UNC, @UL, @ND, @Pitt, and @Cuse. Going 2-5 over that would be incredible. 0-7 seems possible. So that doesn't leave a lot of margin for error in the other 13 games, which include home games against Duke and UVA.

    I guess my point is, I think 10-10 is probably the ceiling for GT, whereas you state it as "very possible." Very possible to me means like a 40 or 50% chance. I don't see 10-10 being that high. I'd say 8-12 is realistic for GT with 9-11 being a bit more likely than 7-13.

    As an aside, I feel like we did this exact thing with BC last year. You (or some poster that I'm confusing with you) saying they had a good shot at making the NCAAT, with me saying that felt like the absolute best case scenario--not the realistic outcome.
     
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  4. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    Eh. I didn't really factor the schedule into it. But, with a 20 game conference season, the imbalance of the schedules should be greatly reduced. But yes, I would say 40-50% of them reaching .500 is about how I feel.

    And yes, I essentially said the same thing about Boston College. But that was back in 2018 when Jerome Robinson was playing. And I said if they stayed healthy. Deontae Hawkins, a grad transfer who had a 23.1 efficiency rating on a 28-7 team in 2017, had a season ending-injury 8 games into the season. That was a game-changer. BC had no depth. None. Their guards were playing close to 40 minutes a night. Look at the stats. Take Hawkins out of the picture, and BC had 5 players averaging more than 11 minutes a game. They were razor thin in terms of ACC-caliber players. I readily admitted that their bench was limited. And the 2020 Georgia Tech finds themselves in a similar situation (they have a lower ceiling than 2018 BC, IMO). They absolutely can't afford a season ending injury to one of their main cogs.

     
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  5. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Yes, I recall that now. And you’re absolutely right that BC needed to stay healthy, and that GT this year needs to stay healthy.

    But that’s sort of the thing—how common is it for a team to play a grind of a schedule and have zero significant injuries? This is why I feel the 40-50% chance is too high. There has to be a range of outcomes.

    If 10-10 is the ceiling, then that’s probably in the 25% range where all things need to go right. 9-11 and 8-12 would each be about in the 30% range, and then 7-13 might be in the 15% range. Maybe 1-5% each for 11-9 or 6-14.

    That’s how winshares work.
     
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  6. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    You might be right. GT does have a little more depth than BC did - but not quite the same star power. I think losing one player wouldn't be nearly as debilitating for them. And I wouldn't say 10-10 is the ceiling, per se. But, it's probably close. Here's how I might distribute the percentages:

    12-8 or better: 10%
    11-9: 15%
    10-10: 20%
    9-11: 15%
    8-12: 15%
    7-13: 15%
    6-14 or worse: 10%

    So yeah, I'll say 45% chance they reach .500. Not definite. But realistic. FWIW, Bart Torvik has Georgia Tech projected 9th in the ACC. If you look at the 6 years the ACC has had 15 teams, you'll find the 9th place teams has been:

    10-8: 1x
    9-9: 4x
    8-10: 1x
     
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  7. Gnawed

    Gnawed Member
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    I really think my Hoos will struggle this year. By struggle, I mean struggle in light of their conference success over the past 5 years or so. I'm seeing a conference record of maybe 11-9 (or thereabouts) and something like a 7th place finish in the ACC.

    The loss of SO MUCH offense from our guards/wings (Guy, Jerome, and Hunter) simply cannot be replaced in one season. Freshman Casey Morsell is likely to be productive his first year, but not to the level that any single member of the big 3 was last year. Transfer wing Tomas Woldetensae could surprise and contribute some offense, but again not likely to the level of Guy, Jerome, or Hunter. It will be highly unusual that our best offense will come from our 4s and 5s (Key, Diakite, and Huff) instead of our guards/wings. Maybe Coach Bennett and his staff have some tricks up their sleeves in tweaking the offense, but I do not see UVa as being able to score nearly as effectively as it has over the past few years, a fact which I understand and can live with given last year's championship.
     
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  8. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    It's hard to really project when the turnover rate is so high. UVA's frontcourt appears to be the strength of this team. Can't imagine Bennett starting Key-Diakite-Huff together, even though all 3 are most likely among their top 5 players. The backcourt is a little thin, and certainly doesn't have superstars like last year. I think most people give UVA the benefit of the doubt, knowing that Bennett is an excellent coach. If I was going by roster makeup alone, I might consider placing them below FSU and NC State.
     
  9. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    This is great dialogue, really enjoy the back and forth.

    Actually looking at GT's schedule, I'll say wins against VT, Clemson, Cuse, and Miami at home, plus a win @wake. Losses on the road to NCSU, FSU, UNC, UL, ND, and at home against Duke.

    So that's 5-6 with the other 9 being "toss ups," though not all 50/50. (UVA at home is a game where UVA is favored, but GT could conceivably pull the upset, and on the flip side, GT should be favored at Clemson but the Tigers could definitely win).

    If we say they go 5-4 in the toss ups, that would be a 10-10 record. I cannot see them being 12-8 or better. Think if they lost the 6 games I noted, plus to UVA at home. They could lose just ONE game the rest of the way. That feels more like 1% to me than 10%.

    I'll say:
    12-8 or better: 2%
    11-9: 5%
    10-10: 25%
    9-11: 31%
    8-12: 25%
    7-13: 10%
    6-12 or worse: 2%

    32% of finishing 10-10 or better, but less than 10% of finishing better than 10-10.

    Seriously, what do you think is GT's realistic record in the following games?
    @NCSU, @FSU, @UNC, @UL, @ND, @Pitt, @Cuse, Duke, UVA, UL
     
  10. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    If I'm not mistaken, the home team wins close to 66% of home games. Last time GT had a semi-decent team was in 2017. They played home games against all of the top 3 seeds from the ACCT, and won all three games (UNC, FSU, ND). Winning on the road ain't easy.

    Honestly, I have a hard time gauging percentages this early. But I will refer you to the numbers from Bart Torvik. Let's say anything over 60% is a win.

    Home Games:
    Virginia Tech- 87%, W
    Syracuse- 75%, W

    Duke- 46%
    Notre Dame- 51%
    Virginia- 49%
    NC State- 61%, W
    Louisville- 40%
    Clemson- 85%, W
    Miami- 64%, W
    Pittsburgh- 69%, W


    Away Games:
    NC State- 31%, L
    FSU- 27%, L
    UNC- 17%, L

    Boston College- 60%
    Louisville- 15%, L
    Notre Dame- 22%, L
    Pittsburgh- 38%, L

    Wake Forest- 44%
    Syracuse- 45%
    Clemson- 61%, W

    That puts GT at 7-6. The 7 toss-up games are as follow:

    Boston College- 60% (Road)
    Notre Dame- 51% (Home)
    Virginia- 49% (Home)
    Duke- 46% (Home)
    Syracuse- 45% (Road)
    Wake Forest- 44% (Road)
    Louisville- 40% (Home)

    The average percentage between these 7 games is 47.86%. So let's go ahead and say They win 3 and lose 4. That puts GT's record at 10-10. I don't anticipate them going 12-8, that would be an incredible accomplishment. But, I do think going 10-10 is very possible.
     
    50 dukedevilz, Sep 19, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2019
  11. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    Btw, not sure if everyone is aware, but BC's Wynston Tabbs is out for the year. Huge loss for them. I think he would have been their leading scorer, possibly north of 18 points per game.
     
  12. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    So it seems like we really are pretty close. The only thing that keeps throwing me off is your “12-8 or better” at 10%. That just seems ridiculously unlikely.

    Even 11-9 at 15% seems pretty high. Look at those percentages you posted—to go 11-9 they need to go 4-3 in the toss ups, which either means sweeping the road games AND beating one of the toughest 4 at home, or beating two or more of those tough teams at home.

    And yeah, I did see about Tabbs. Tough blow. Gotta have depth.
     
  13. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    I was just throwing some numbers out there. Wasn't trying to have them perfectly match up with the percentages. But, It's not that far-fetched, truthfully. These percentages come from Bart Torvik. Let's review the numbers of the toss-up games.

    Boston College- 60% (Road)
    Notre Dame- 51% (Home)
    Virginia- 49% (Home)
    Duke- 46% (Home)
    Syracuse- 45% (Road)

    Wake Forest- 44% (Road)
    Louisville- 40% (Home)

    If you take the top two numbers as Ws and the bottom two numbers as losses, GT's record is then 9-8. The 3 toss up games are 49%, 46%, 45%. In order to go 12-8, GT would have to win all three.

    .49 * .46 * .45 = 10.143%

    The actual number would be slightly lower than that since I was canceling out the ND & Wake games (BC & Louisville games cancel each other out perfectly, percentage-wise). GT is 5% more likely to lose to Wake on the road than to beat Notre Dame at home. So, 10.143 * 0.95 = 9.64%. That's pretty darn close.
     
  14. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    But that’s all assuming GT has ZERO injuries. Which isn’t close to a 100% outcome. So how do we account for the chances of GT having an injury? Or how do we account for the fact that one of their star transfers is missing the first 8 games?

    Here’s the more realistic win shares of those 7 games:
    .6 + .51 + .49 + .46 + .45 + .44 + .40 = 3.35-4.65
     
  15. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    Bubba Parham is immediately eligible. Jordan Usher will only miss the NC State road game (69% chance of losing) and the Syracuse home game (75% chance of winning). Not sure if Torvik accounts for that or not, but those aren't games that should be materially effected. Don't think you can really factor hypothetical injuries into the equation. Other teams could also be effected by injuries, too. Just seems like you have to take an assumption of all else being equal. You don't know who on your team would be injured - or who might be injured on the other team. Don't think any algorithm could sufficiently account for that, IMO.

    As far as the breakdown of percentages, yes, 3.35 for wins and 3.65 for losses (assuming you meant 3.65). Even if we round down the wins to 3, and round up the losses to 4, you end up with 10-10. Going .500 is actually very attainable. If you take the 7-6 start and add 3.35 wins and 3.65 losses, you end up with 10.35 wins and 9.65 losses. I agree that GT is more likely to finish 10-10. Going 12-8 would be challenging. Not super likely. That is essentially the absolutely ceiling. But it is feasible. And 10% seems about right.

    FWIW, Evan Cole was the most consistent player on their trip to Spain. I don't know if that will actually materialize against D1 opponents - but something that we'll never be able to reasonably project is player progression.
     
  16. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    Who would have thought that GT would be the talk of this thread lol. Are there any Tech basketball fans out there?
     
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  17. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Indeed. Fun stuff. I actually have an interest in watching most GT games now lol.

    I’ll tell you one thing about Torvik, he is massively underestimating the production of RaiQuan Gray and Devin Vassell. He’s got RaiQuan averaging 2.9 ppg. Lol. The guy started all three NCAAT games last year and averaged nearly 7 ppg, yet with FSU losing 3 or 4 really nice contributors, he’s gonna average less than 3?!

    And Vassell is the best shooter on the team. He’s gonna average 6-9 points a game just from threes. Let alone transition layups and ally oops.
     
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  18. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    Torvik's site has limitations, no question. It's still a useful tool for looking at nearly all the rosters, schedules, advanced statistics, etc. His model does a very poor job at forecasting player development. The numbers are amazingly modest across the board. He also tends to minimize the importance of freshmen. On his rankings, he is undervaluing freshmen-dominated teams like Duke (#11), Kentucky (#12), Arizona (#28), Memphis (#41), and Washington (#60). Here were some of the failings that I pointed out last year. I was wrong about Wisconsin and two mid-majors, but spot-on with everyone else.

     
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  19. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    How would you break down FSU's team in terms of starters and key bench players? Torvik's top 3 scorers seems reasonable to me in Forrest, Walker, and Williams. But I wouldn't expect the 2 JUCO guys to be 4th & 5th on the team in scoring. I think that's another error with his projections. He tends to overvalue JUCO players, for whatever reason. Some JUCOs turn out to be studs. But, I find them to be underwhelming, for the most part.
     
  20. SheriffBufordTJustice

    SheriffBufordTJustice Well-Known Member
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    In the minds of the ignorant
    All James Banks fault.

    There are ACC teams I don't think I have watched for maybe the last 2-3 years so I truthfully can't give you an analysis.

    But I am high on Louisville this year.
     
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  21. SheriffBufordTJustice

    SheriffBufordTJustice Well-Known Member
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    In the minds of the ignorant
    Replacing DeAndre Hunter's D is the key.
    You saw what happen without Hunter in the 2018 tournament.

    Hunter was the best all around college basketball player. His impact went beyond numbers.
    If you would create a basketball player in a lab it would be DeAndre Hunter.
    UVa's luck is that Tony Bennett has an eye for talent. His track record proves itself.

    But players like Hunter don't just appear every year.
     
  22. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Patrick Williams might very well end up leading the team in scoring. Forrest is often more of a facilitator than dominant scorer (mainly because he can’t shoot), although he can get to the basket at will when he chooses to play downhill. I imagine he tries to carry the load a bit early on but by the end of OOC schedule it could be Williams.

    Regarding starters, you know with Ham that’s often just a token designation. Down in Tallahassee we tend to look at things by total minutes played as opposed to who starts the game.

    A month or two ago I sketched out some rough numbers for who our top 11 guys might be in terms of total minutes played (assuming all stay healthy). It looked like this:

    1. Trent – 975
    2. MJ Walker – 825
    3. Devin Vassell – 750
    4. Patrick Williams – 700
    5. RaiQuan Gray – 625
    6. Malik Osborne – 500
    7. Rayquan Evans – 440
    8. Anthony Polite/Dom/Balsa – 375-ish
    9. Jack – 300

    Based on what I’ve heard from summer, I might bump Dominik up into the 425 range and adjust Evans and Polite down 20-30 min each. Also, Williams could get closer to 750 than 700.

    FYI, we play 31 games so it starts with Forrest at just over 31 mpg and the math follows from there.

    Malik Osborne is gonna surprise some folks.
     
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  23. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    Sit-out transfers are the best. They get one year under the belt learning the system, meanwhile their eligibility is placed on pause. It's amazing how much guys can improve in 18 months. Those are the transfers that intrigue me the most. They seem hungrier than transfers that are immediately eligible. Most knew Mariol Shayok was a good player, and a likely starter for Iowa State. But I don't think anyone was expecting 19 ppg. Not sure how good Osborne is, but he had respectable numbers at Rice. I'm sure he'll be valuable player this season.
     
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  24. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Well said. Certainly worked well for us with Toney Douglas.
     
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  25. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    You should watch Georgia Tech this year and check out Banks. Pastner has a Princeton-style offense that he runs. Kind of fun to watch.
     
  26. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Do you think GT will actually have any shooters this year? They have been dreadful from behind the arc.
     
  27. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    One can hope, right? That is one of their downfalls. On the Spain trip (4 games), they were 42 for 123 (34.2%). Alvrado was 8 for 16, Phillips was 6 for 12, and Devoe was 8 for 19. Others weren't very good. Small sample size, so probably not a solid indicator of how they'll perform. Parham was 116 for 292 last year (39.7%). He and Devoe should be the most reliable shooters. They're not going to be great, I suspect. And that will hurt them. But, they should be a little better than last season. Maybe in the 32-34% range as a team.
     
  28. shun1

    shun1 Well-Known Member
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    i love my UNC TAR HEELS!

    !!!!!!!!!!!! GO TAR HEELS !!!!!!!!!!!!
     
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  29. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    A journalist from HowTheyPlay released his ACC Preseason Projections. Here they are, from 1-15:

    1. UNC
    2. Duke
    3. Virginia
    4. Louisville
    5. Notre Dame
    6. NC State
    7. Georgia Tech
    8. Florida State
    9. Miami
    10. Syracuse
    11. Virginia Tech
    12. Pittsburgh
    13. Wake Forest
    14. Clemson
    15. Boston College
     
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  30. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    I read that one a week or so ago. Though I see he updated it to show that one of our freshman seven footers (who was going to redshirt anyway) has been ruled academically ineligible.

    I think he’s too high on UVA by a decent amount, and maybe ND by a tad. But overall it’s solid.

    One thing he doesn’t seem to be factoring in is the schedule.
     
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  31. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    Whoa, whoa, whoa. No mention of Georgia Tech? He picked them to finish 7th and make it to the 2nd round of the NCAAs. I found that interesting. I like their team, but I don't like them that much, personally.

    I see the ACC being a 3-team race between Louisville, Duke, and Carolina. Certainly one of those three teams could slip up, and maybe UVA slips past them. As of right now, though, I think they're a bit behind all three. They're especially light in the backcourt. I like UVA's bigs, but their backcourt is very, very shaky. Hard to imagine UVA finishing in the top 3 with essentially 4 guards. And of those four guards, only the incoming freshmen was a top 100 recruit.

    And I would agree with the ND assessment. No doubt Notre Dame will be better. Everyone is back. Pflueger and Carmody should be healthy. Mooney is a legit candidate for 1st Team All-Conference. But for them to take the next step, IMO, Gibbs and Hubb have to much more reliable scorers. Those two were awful from the field. Never seen a Notre Dame offense struggle so much under Mike Brey.
     
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  32. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Totally agree about UVA and ND. Well said.

    I figured we had spent enough time on GT, haha. But yeah, 2nd round of the NCAAT feels quite optimistic to me. I’d say second round of the NIT is more likely.
     
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  33. brooky03

    brooky03 Well-Known Member
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    pooped on us
     
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  34. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    You should probably key his car - and slap on a Syracuse bumper sticker while you're at it.
     
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  35. lurkeraspect84

    lurkeraspect84 Well-Known Member
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    Georgia Tech has received...
    • A 2019-20 postseason ban.
    • Four years of probation with one scholarship reduction each year.
    • A fine of $5,000 plus 2% of the men’s basketball program budget.
    • Vacation of wins for one season.
    • No official visits may be conducted during home games for the first two years of probation.
     
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  36. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
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    Welp...guess we don’t need to argue if they’re making the Dance lol.
     
  37. brooky03

    brooky03 Well-Known Member
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    GT loses 1 scholarship per year and a season of wins for paying money to recruits.

    Syracuse lost 100 wins and 3 scholarships per year because Terrence Roberts didn’t feel like talking to the NCAA (or wasn’t asked) and a tutor wrote a paper for a non-English speaking Center.

    cool
     
  38. UL_1986

    UL_1986 Well-Known Member
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    Yeah, well...the strippers done made our players play rrreal good.
     
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  39. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
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    Wow. Tough luck, Tech. Really thought they'd have a decent shot at making NCAAs this year.
     
  40. lurkeraspect84

    lurkeraspect84 Well-Known Member
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