Success of OAD Heavy Teams this Decade (At Least 2 1st Round Picks)

bignish

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Feb 15, 2016
2,792
2,659
113
Team
Duke
The idea that super talented freshmen laden teams can't succeed in college basketball and that you're better off with an experienced teams doesn't hold up to the data now that we've seen a number of these sort of teams.

For good measure:

2010 Kentucky (Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Orton): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2012 Kentucky (Davis, MKG, Teague): SEC Reg Season Champs, National Champs
2013 Kentucky (Noel, Goodwin): NIT
2014 Kentucky (Randle, Young): National Runners Up
2015 Kansas (Embiid, Wiggins): Big 12 Reg Season Champs
2015 Kentucky (Booker, Lyles, Towns): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Final 4
2015 Duke (Jones, Okafor, Winslow): National Champs
2016 Kentucky (Murray, Labissiere): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs
2017 Kentucky (Bam, Fox, Monk): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2017 Duke (Giles, Tatum): ACC Tourney Champs
2018 Duke (Bagley, Carter): Elite 8
2018 Kentucky (Knox, SGA, Washington): SEC Tourney Champs
2019 Duke (Barrett, Reddish, Zion): ACC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2019 Kentucky (Herro, Johnson): Elite 8
2022 Duke (Banchero, Griffin): ACC Regular Season Champs, Final 4

2013 UK (Noel), 2015 KU (Embiid) and 2017 Duke (Giles) were all impacted by key injuries to one of their 1st Round Freshmen that affected their seasons but I included them to be comprehensive.

These 15 teams have 6 regular season championships, 7 tournament championships, 10 Elite 8s, 5 Final 4s and 2 Titles.

If you group these OAD squads and label them as one program, I would take this program's 15 year stretch over any other individual program this century.
 

bignish

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Feb 15, 2016
2,792
2,659
113
Team
Duke
Freshman-heavy teams can win big, and you're generally better off with some experience. Both of those ideas can be true.

I think it's obvious that you want a mix.
That's an obvious statement. Look, you have an entire roster of players so besides the OAD studs you'll have some mix of upperclassmen. My point is all of these teams with at least 2 OAD 1st Round picks have for the most part been successful despite having a varying mix of quality of upperclassmen.
 

bignish

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Feb 15, 2016
2,792
2,659
113
Team
Duke
It's not that I disagree, but how many minutes did freshman play in the championship game?
A lot? All of these guys were the best player or amongst the top few best players on their squads.
 

jhmossy

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 9, 2017
7,529
18,147
113
Team
Virginia
I think it's pretty clear that you can win using a multitude of strategies. I am happy with the strategy my program uses and would prefer not to support a OAD factory. But winning is winning so I'd ultimately sign on if that's what happened. But I love supporting student-athletes who grow within a program and get better over the years. Cheering for a hodgepodge of players who are there for a year just is not my preference.

Really the only good thing that has come out of OAD for me is that I don't hate Duke players as much. Coach K doesn't have as much time to rub off on them I guess.
 

Ipartiedwithhopgood

Well-Known Member
Jan 20, 2011
20,374
5,828
113
The idea that super talented freshmen laden teams can't succeed in college basketball and that you're better off with an experienced teams doesn't hold up to the data now that we've seen a number of these sort of teams.

For good measure:

2010 Kentucky (Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Orton): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2012 Kentucky (Davis, MKG, Teague): SEC Reg Season Champs, National Champs
2013 Kentucky (Noel, Goodwin): NIT
2014 Kentucky (Randle, Young): National Runners Up
2015 Kansas (Embiid, Wiggins): Big 12 Reg Season Champs
2015 Kentucky (Booker, Lyles, Towns): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Final 4
2015 Duke (Jones, Okafor, Winslow): National Champs
2016 Kentucky (Murray, Labissiere): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs
2017 Kentucky (Bam, Fox, Monk): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2017 Duke (Giles, Tatum): ACC Tourney Champs
2018 Duke (Bagley, Carter): Elite 8
2018 Kentucky (Knox, SGA, Washington): SEC Tourney Champs
2019 Duke (Barrett, Reddish, Zion): ACC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2019 Kentucky (Herro, Johnson): Elite 8
2022 Duke (Banchero, Griffin): ACC Regular Season Champs, Final 4

2013 UK (Noel), 2015 KU (Embiid) and 2017 Duke (Giles) were all impacted by key injuries to one of their 1st Round Freshmen that affected their seasons but I included them to be comprehensive.

These 15 teams have 6 regular season championships, 7 tournament championships, 10 Elite 8s, 5 Final 4s and 2 Titles.

If you group these OAD squads and label them as one program, I would take this program's 15 year stretch over any other individual program this century.
I don't think anyone argues programs can't win at a high level relying on FR.
Some argue it's tough to win a title relying on FR.
It's tough to win a title under any circumstance.

Two title winners since 2010 probably makes everyone right and nobody wrong? If you had half the titles over this timeframe you'd really have something. That said,
I love this, everybody is getting it right so everybody is happy great thread.

It's also possible you missed some teams this requires a lot of research I get it.
 
Last edited:

Ipartiedwithhopgood

Well-Known Member
Jan 20, 2011
20,374
5,828
113
That's an obvious statement. Look, you have an entire roster of players so besides the OAD studs you'll have some mix of upperclassmen. My point is all of these teams with at least 2 OAD 1st Round picks have for the most part been successful despite having a varying mix of quality of upperclassmen.
You created an obvious thread why are you jumping on him for adding an obvious post.
I love Larry David though hell yeah I do.
 

lurkeraspect84

Well-Known Member
Mar 4, 2014
42,639
47,309
113
Memphis
Team
Louisville
I don't think anyone argues programs can't win at a high level relying on FR.
Some argue it's tough to win a title relying on FR.
It's tough to win a title under any circumstance.

Two title winners since 2010 probably makes everyone right and nobody wrong? If you had half the titles over this timeframe you'd really have something. That said,
I love this, everybody is getting it right so everybody is happy great thread.

It's also possible you missed some teams this requires a lot of research I get it.
2020 UK not listed - Jackson and Boston for example.
I think ppl are forgetting Carmelo Anthony.
 

dukedevilz

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Apr 3, 2002
9,473
12,235
113
The idea that super talented freshmen laden teams can't succeed in college basketball and that you're better off with an experienced teams doesn't hold up to the data now that we've seen a number of these sort of teams.

For good measure:

2010 Kentucky (Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Orton): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2012 Kentucky (Davis, MKG, Teague): SEC Reg Season Champs, National Champs
2013 Kentucky (Noel, Goodwin): NIT
2014 Kentucky (Randle, Young): National Runners Up
2015 Kansas (Embiid, Wiggins): Big 12 Reg Season Champs
2015 Kentucky (Booker, Lyles, Towns): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Final 4
2015 Duke (Jones, Okafor, Winslow): National Champs
2016 Kentucky (Murray, Labissiere): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs
2017 Kentucky (Bam, Fox, Monk): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2017 Duke (Giles, Tatum): ACC Tourney Champs
2018 Duke (Bagley, Carter): Elite 8
2018 Kentucky (Knox, SGA, Washington): SEC Tourney Champs
2019 Duke (Barrett, Reddish, Zion): ACC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2019 Kentucky (Herro, Johnson): Elite 8
2022 Duke (Banchero, Griffin): ACC Regular Season Champs, Final 4

2013 UK (Noel), 2015 KU (Embiid) and 2017 Duke (Giles) were all impacted by key injuries to one of their 1st Round Freshmen that affected their seasons but I included them to be comprehensive.

These 15 teams have 6 regular season championships, 7 tournament championships, 10 Elite 8s, 5 Final 4s and 2 Titles.

If you group these OAD squads and label them as one program, I would take this program's 15 year stretch over any other individual program this century.

Absolutely! Between Kentucky and Duke, you're looking at 14 OAD teams. 10 of those 14 squads reached the Elite 8. If you don't like those odds, you are batty.

The first OAD team, FWIW, was probably Ohio State in 07. They had Conley, Cook, and Oden - and reached the title game.
 

Ipartiedwithhopgood

Well-Known Member
Jan 20, 2011
20,374
5,828
113
Edit - Boston went 2nd Rd my bad on that.

TN had two 1st rounders last year OAD Springer and Johnson add em to the list!
 

I am stupid

Well-Known Member
Mar 18, 2013
4,150
1,747
113
A lot? All of these guys were the best player or amongst the top few best players on their squads.
I was meaning in this championship game, but to answer my own question...

UNC- 0 Freshman played in the Championship game.
Kansas- 1 Freshman played. 3 minutes.

One and done is certainly viable. I just think for the next few years the OAD focused teams will have issues unless they also add transfers or get people to stay. I think the extra covid year for college athletes plus the loss of a year for the kids in HS gave an advantage to older teams.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lurkeraspect84

FaithPlusOne

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Mar 18, 2017
2,719
5,127
113
I think “one and done” teams aren’t always so easy to define. Is it teams that are primarily freshman or that freshman just happen to take a lot of the burden but there may be upper classmen that help keep everything together? Just having a one and done or two is not usually what I think of when I consider the question of them winning.

It’s hard to bet against talent in March for the first few rounds for sure. It’s after they run into other talented teams later on that the results haven’t been quite as good lately for those that are primarily first year players. Duke broke the final four draught for both them and Kentucky following 2015.

I like getting 5* guys because talent wins a lot, but I don’t want to be so reliant on them that every class needs to have 4+ of them to field a (hopefully) competitive team. My preference is to have guys who are legit college players but for some reason or another aren’t obvious pros, and then sprinkling in those pros to go along with them.

No wrong answer here. Until this year the last several final 4s were primarily older teams, but just like Duke getting there this year, they (or a Kentucky) can get there next year and everyone would start to jump back on the one and done bandwagon.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lurkeraspect84

ExitFlagger

Well-Known Member
May 2, 2015
11,331
7,817
113
Team
Kansas
That's an obvious statement. Look, you have an entire roster of players so besides the OAD studs you'll have some mix of upperclassmen. My point is all of these teams with at least 2 OAD 1st Round picks have for the most part been successful despite having a varying mix of quality of upperclassmen.

Clearly no one is going to pass up an opportunity to land a Zion, Davis or Embiid. And if you could somehow fill a team with only guys at that level, you'd crush anyone else, regardless of experience. So I'm not even sure why it's a question.

Although it's not all positive even with the best of them. Embiid sat out the tourney when he probably could have played because his dad was concerned about his future. Wiggins barely got involved in his final game, playing like someone who was more worried about not getting injured than winning.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lurkeraspect84

UNC71-00

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Feb 25, 2003
23,270
50,798
113
The idea that super talented freshmen laden teams can't succeed in college basketball and that you're better off with an experienced teams doesn't hold up to the data now that we've seen a number of these sort of teams.

For good measure:

2010 Kentucky (Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Orton): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2012 Kentucky (Davis, MKG, Teague): SEC Reg Season Champs, National Champs
2013 Kentucky (Noel, Goodwin): NIT
2014 Kentucky (Randle, Young): National Runners Up
2015 Kansas (Embiid, Wiggins): Big 12 Reg Season Champs
2015 Kentucky (Booker, Lyles, Towns): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Final 4
2015 Duke (Jones, Okafor, Winslow): National Champs
2016 Kentucky (Murray, Labissiere): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs
2017 Kentucky (Bam, Fox, Monk): SEC Reg Season Champs, SEC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2017 Duke (Giles, Tatum): ACC Tourney Champs
2018 Duke (Bagley, Carter): Elite 8
2018 Kentucky (Knox, SGA, Washington): SEC Tourney Champs
2019 Duke (Barrett, Reddish, Zion): ACC Tourney Champs, Elite 8
2019 Kentucky (Herro, Johnson): Elite 8
2022 Duke (Banchero, Griffin): ACC Regular Season Champs, Final 4

2013 UK (Noel), 2015 KU (Embiid) and 2017 Duke (Giles) were all impacted by key injuries to one of their 1st Round Freshmen that affected their seasons but I included them to be comprehensive.

These 15 teams have 6 regular season championships, 7 tournament championships, 10 Elite 8s, 5 Final 4s and 2 Titles.

If you group these OAD squads and label them as one program, I would take this program's 15 year stretch over any other individual program this century.

So what you are saying is that if you take the best players from UK, Duke and KU over the past decade and make an all start team out of them, you would put them up against any individual program in the last 2 decades?

tenor.png
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Ipartiedwithhopgood

UNC71-00

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Feb 25, 2003
23,270
50,798
113
Actually, upon further review, your argument taken at face value is also laughable.

The 2009 Carolina team would beat any 5 OADs you could pull out of that list. So would 08 KU. So also would a combination of Nova 16-17-18-22. So also would a team of Duke upperclassmen.
 

lurkeraspect84

Well-Known Member
Mar 4, 2014
42,639
47,309
113
Memphis
Team
Louisville
Actually, upon further review, your argument taken at face value is also laughable.

The 2009 Carolina team would beat any 5 OADs you could pull out of that list. So would 08 KU. So also would a combination of Nova 16-17-18-22. So also would a team of Duke upperclassmen.

fry-not-sure.gif

Are with just using 5 players off those teams or can the OAD's have a bench?
 

GhostOf301

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Mar 24, 2020
6,760
22,516
113
Remove Quinn Cook, the Plumlees, Matt Jones and Amile from 2015 and good luck suggesting they win the championship. Also, the 2012 Kentucky team would not have won had they not had experienced contributors.

There are many criterias that will make it look like a successful method. But the one that matters (championships) doesn't prove to be worth it. There has yet to be a champion during this era that has been built fully on OAD recruits. Unless everyone eventually does it, I don’t see it ever happening.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Farm-Cat

jwhkchawk

Member
Gold Member
Mar 30, 2009
23
19
3
OAD will be less viable with NIL. Better experience sticking around will make it tougher for young, talented teams to win. The physicality/mental toughness difference between freshman and upperclassman is tangible. When the seniors are also top 50-100 talented guys it overcomes the talent gap.

One year in to NIL the 2 teams in the championship had almost no freshman contributors. Duke had the OAD talent being discussed so “success” is obviously possible. But also less reliable in close games against physical, well coached teams.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ExitFlagger

ExitFlagger

Well-Known Member
May 2, 2015
11,331
7,817
113
Team
Kansas
OAD will be less viable with NIL. Better experience sticking around will make it tougher for young, talented teams to win. The physicality/mental toughness difference between freshman and upperclassman is tangible. When the seniors are also top 50-100 talented guys it overcomes the talent gap.

One year in to NIL the 2 teams in the championship had almost no freshman contributors. Duke had the OAD talent being discussed so “success” is obviously possible. But also less reliable in close games against physical, well coached teams.
Some of Duke's top players were also 5 star sophomores/juniors.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lurkeraspect84

Farm-Cat

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Sep 28, 2020
858
868
93
Team
Kansas State
So what you are saying is that if you take the best players from UK, Duke and KU over the past decade and make an all start team out of them, you would put them up against any individual program in the last 2 decades?

tenor.png
The best "team" will beat the best 5 players. Simple concept