Should the CFP committee consider intent of scheduling?

Discussion in 'College Football Soundoff' started by cacpslo, May 12, 2018.

  1. cacpslo

    cacpslo Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2007
    Messages:
    16,235
    Likes Received:
    5,764
    Location:
    South Central Georgia
    From our friends at fbschedules............thoughts from ND AD

    College football teams schedule so far out into the future that it’s impossible to determine the quality of opponents until game time finally rolls around. You can book a Top 10 team in 2012 and eight years later, in 2018, get an unranked opponent. Or, you can schedule a middle-of-the-roader who is magically No. 6 by the time you play them.

    Coming into the 2017 season, Rivals’ BlueAndGold.com did a piece on Notre Dame’s director of athletics Jack Swarbrick, capturing his approach to football scheduling. In it, he acknowledges that the ultimate goal of booking opponents is wooing the CFP committee and thereby making the four-team bracket.

    “We build and we give our team the platform to get to the CFP, and we want to have the best teams on it…”

    Though it all makes perfect sense, engineering a schedule with the highest level of competition possible (especially given the freedom of a partial independent), Swarbrick’s next comment is thought-provoking.

    “Intent is part of what the selection committee looks at. A program might be down by the time you get to it, but when you schedule that game – who were they, what does it say about your intent?”

    Is he saying that, in the eyes of the CFP committee, intending to play a top-ranked opponent is the same as, or close to, actually playing one?

    If that’s the case, then every Power 5 athletic director ought to be on the phone dialing up teams who are up presently and will hopefully crash in the next five to ten years.

    Yes, let’s identify the programs whose success stands on shaky ground – like a coach who is older or who has bigger aspirations, or diminishing recruiting rankings, or potential NCAA violations – and schedule them in the future.

    Because, well, the committee will understand, and give us credit for, trying to schedule up.

    Will Alabama sustain its success after Nick Saban finally retires? What does it mean that Ole Miss’s team recruiting rank has slowly slipped from No. 7 in 2016 to No. 39 in 2017 to No. 27 in 2018? And what about the turmoil at Michigan State?

    Though it sounds ridiculous, there is a part of Swarbrick’s logic that makes sense.

    Was it Notre Dame’s fault that when, in August of 2010, it scheduled Texas to open the 2015 season that it was intending to play the 2009 version of the Longhorns? That UT team, the one it thought it was signing on with, went 13-1 and finished No. 2 in the final AP after falling to No. 1 Alabama in the BCS Championship Game. It was a far cry from the version of the Horns the Irish got five years after the fact, fresh off a 6-7 campaign (in 2014) and completely devoid of any mention in the Top 25.

    Notre Dame beat Texas 38-3 in 2015, the Irish went on to finish the regular season 10-2, suffering quality losses at No. 12 Clemson (24-22) and at No. 13 Stanford (38-36).

    If Swarbrick’s understanding of how the committee approaches scheduling intent is valid, then the Irish’s No. 8 slot in the final CFP rankings that season was due, at least in part, to the fact that they attempted to schedule a top-ranked team in the Longhorns.

    Two-loss Notre Dame finished just ahead of Florida State which came in at No. 9, also with a 10-2 record. The Seminoles also lost at No. 3 Clemson (23-13) but managed a win at No. 10 Florida (27-2) to finish the regular season.

    Though the two schedules are far from an apples-to-apples comparison, FSU beat it’s two highest-ranked regular season opponents that year while Notre Dame lost to theirs. Was it the Irish’s intent to play a top-ranked Texas team that made the difference? And what would have happened if both teams had one loss and Notre Dame finished No. 4 in the CFP rankings and Florida State came in at No. 5, just out of the bracket?

    The truth is, we’ll never know.

    What we can be certain of is this – no where in the CFP committee’s selection criteria is “intent” mentioned.

    Though strength of schedule is one of the four pillars of the protocol, no specific guidelines are offered for how difficulty is determined, and no guidance is given on “how to” build an acceptable schedule.

    What is presented is an avenue for independent programs to earn a bracket spot.

    The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, Presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.

    But again, this has nothing to do with intent, something that Swarbrick not just contends the committee should honor, but that they do use it as a factor in deciding which four teams make the CFP.

    To look at it from another angle let’s take Alabama, who opens up against Louisville in Orlando this season. Three years ago, in August 2015, when the matchup was announced the Cardinals were a club that had posted a 32-7 mark in three seasons and had Lamar Jackson cued up. Speed ahead to 2018 and Louisville isn’t even mentioned in ESPN’s post-spring Top 25 and Jackson is off to the NFL.

    So, when the dust settles on the 2018 season, based on intent should the Crimson Tide get full or partial credit with the CFP selection committee for opening-up with what was, when they booked them, a top-ranked opponent? The same acknowledgement that say Texas A&M deserves for actually playing Clemson in Week 2?

    The truth is, top-tier, money-drawing programs like Notre Dame and Alabama will always get “extra credit” from groups of well-meaning experts fielding playoffs or selecting bowl teams. Subjective concepts like “intent” provide decision-makers with the necessary leeway to justify their subjectivity.

    Think about it, if West Virginia tanks and falls from being a contender in 2020 and 2021 (ESPN has the Mountaineers at No. 11 in its post-spring Top 25) will Maryland get the same “intent” credit for scheduling the Mountaineers as fellow Big Ten member Ohio State would have?

    The same theory applies to TCU who has Stanford slated for 2027. If the mighty Cardinal are unranked and struggling on the gridiron in nine years, will the Horned Frogs still get intent points from the committee that Oklahoma surely would?

    Could it be that Swarbrick’s views on intent is yet another way for Notre Dame to try and assert that its 12-game schedule – as a quasi-independent – can match or trump the 13-game resume (which includes a league title game) of a Power conference champion?

    Is this the “flexibility” that’s mentioned in the CFP selection criteria for independents?

    Intending to schedule the best set of opponents possible is admirable, but it is irrelevant when deciding which four teams have earned the opportunity to compete for a national championship.
     
  2. GatorTheo

    GatorTheo Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2002
    Messages:
    46,346
    Likes Received:
    39,261
    Maybe they should consider players they were trying to recruit.
     
  3. sdave

    sdave Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2005
    Messages:
    10,016
    Likes Received:
    3,380
    Location:
    Goleta
    Committee does not care about strength of schedule, no matter what they say.

    Their selections last year prove that. Better to schedule weak teams and win.
     
  4. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2009
    Messages:
    26,957
    Likes Received:
    10,946
    The committee does not care about schedule unless your name is TCU or Baylor. If your name is Bama schedule doesn’t matter. If your name is Georgia schedule doesn’t matter. Bama and .georgia schedule extremely weak OOC and only play 8 conference games. The intent is blatantly obvious .......

    Committee will not punish the SEC for 8 conference games or for intentionally weak OOC scheduling. until the committee punishes the SEC for 8 conference games and weak OOC the SEC will continue with this practice.

    On the other hand it doesn’t matter what UCF or TCU or Baylor accomplishes they will be behind a two loss Bama or Georgia because of the people on the committee.
     
  5. DTP2

    DTP2 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    Messages:
    16,377
    Likes Received:
    3,417
    No. Intent is a bad idea. Besides, how many teams only ever intend to schedule ONE quality opponent? Get rid of committee and play by actual rules that spell out the importance of schedule and how its value is determined and perhaps teams will not put all of its SOS eggs in one opponent's basket.
     
    Nod4Eight and TeganInBama like this.
  6. OldDevilDAWG

    OldDevilDAWG Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2012
    Messages:
    47,960
    Likes Received:
    76,399
    Location:
    Southeast Georgia
    Step back, bitch. UGA is normally among the best OOC schedulers.
     
  7. CB3UK

    CB3UK Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2012
    Messages:
    12,159
    Likes Received:
    16,832
    Location:
    Lexington, KY
    If only there were a way to make a defined path with set criteria to determine playoff eligibility where none of those things mattered...
     
    7 CB3UK, May 12, 2018
    Last edited: May 13, 2018
  8. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2009
    Messages:
    26,957
    Likes Received:
    10,946
    2018was ....Austin Peay, Middle Tennessee , Massachusetts.....and GT

    You are better in 2019 with ND and Gt to balance out Murray St Arky St but face it with 8 conference games you need two decent OOC games to be average.....
     
  9. OldDevilDAWG

    OldDevilDAWG Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2012
    Messages:
    47,960
    Likes Received:
    76,399
    Location:
    Southeast Georgia
    I have stated here more than once that UGAs 2018 OOC is pathetic. Possibly the worst in UGA history. When was the last time Oklahoma played Clemson or Notre Dame OOC?
     
    jackrabbit slim and cacpslo like this.
  10. IrishBlooded

    IrishBlooded Moderator
    Moderator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2009
    Messages:
    38,442
    Likes Received:
    24,618

    Just did a home and home with in the last couple of years. ND beat them at Oklahoma in 2012 on the way to the undefeated season in a great game. And then lost to them following that year at S. Bend, in what has been termed 'Tommy Turnovers' worst game.

    Tommy Rees (ironically the QB coach at ND currently) was playing starter that game, because of the issues with Golson being benched for rules infringement, and Tommy threw 2 turnovers in the first 2 possessions that led to Sooner TD's ( I think one was a pick 6) and then dropped another on the turf all in the first half. ND couldn't get out of the hole they made from that and lost 35-21
     
  11. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2009
    Messages:
    26,957
    Likes Received:
    10,946
    You were just told about ND, Sooners just had a home and home with ND, then followed it up with a home and home with The Ohio State, any other questions?
     
  12. Justin1993

    Justin1993 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2009
    Messages:
    22,268
    Likes Received:
    6,204
    We literally played the highest ranking season opener ever....last year. Opened with the #3 team in the country yet that's not good enough. But accuracy has never been a mainstay in your posting history
     
  13. P.G.S.

    P.G.S. Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2006
    Messages:
    15,250
    Likes Received:
    8,420
    If that were the case, then some magical team would have gotten in.
     
  14. P.G.S.

    P.G.S. Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2006
    Messages:
    15,250
    Likes Received:
    8,420
    Well if Baylor and TCU are in the top positions in the bigxll, then it's clear to everyone that the bigxll sucks that year.

    9 games doesn't matter when one of those games is Kansas every year. Laughing

    I'm actually glad that Alabama doesn't play a team like Kansas every year. I had rather them play championship contenders like (10-4) Fresno and (10-3) Charleston Southern.
     
    g8rbass94 likes this.
  15. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2009
    Messages:
    26,957
    Likes Received:
    10,946
    Last season Bama played; Chattanooga, West Kentucky, Kent State, and Mercer....cry me a river....
     
    RedR8der4Life likes this.
  16. Al E Gater

    Al E Gater Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2008
    Messages:
    14,341
    Likes Received:
    3,889
    Well troll you got 1 out of 4 right, we did play Mercer but none of the others.
     
    dqhz likes this.
  17. cacpslo

    cacpslo Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2007
    Messages:
    16,235
    Likes Received:
    5,764
    Location:
    South Central Georgia
    These 5 paragraphs appear to be the thrust of the article.......

    What we can be certain of is this – no where in the CFP committee’s selection criteria is “intent” mentioned.

    Though strength of schedule is one of the four pillars of the protocol, no specific guidelines are offered for how difficulty is determined, and no guidance is given on “how to” build an acceptable schedule.

    What is presented is an avenue for independent programs to earn a bracket spot.

    The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, Presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.

    But again, this has nothing to do with intent, something that Swarbrick not just contends the committee should honor, but that they do use it as a factor in deciding which four teams make the CFP.
     
  18. DTP2

    DTP2 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    Messages:
    16,377
    Likes Received:
    3,417
    Picking the "four best teams" is incredibly stupid so I wouldn't put it past a committee to use any justification to get a desired outcome.
     
  19. CFB fan 926

    CFB fan 926 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2013
    Messages:
    2,293
    Likes Received:
    3,483
    Location:
    N.W.Ohio
    Don't like it but it WOULD give us something different to argue about so there is that.
     
    VU63 likes this.
  20. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2009
    Messages:
    26,957
    Likes Received:
    10,946
    My mistake the Bama site flips years it is the 2016 year as the 2017 schedule so those four Chattanooga , west Kentucky, Mercer and Kent st were the daunting task facing Bama in 2016... I am sure the following year was as tough
    https://www.google.com/search?q=201...safari#sie=t;/m/026bt_h;6;/m/012hfxch;mt;fp;1
     
  21. HOUNDZTOOTH1

    HOUNDZTOOTH1 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2009
    Messages:
    8,716
    Likes Received:
    3,608
    Whew...you sound bitter. I agree with some of what you said but the reason Bama doesn’t get “punished” for anything is because they don’t break any rules, (the Big XII) could schedule the same way the SEC does if they wanted to.
     
  22. DTP2

    DTP2 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    Messages:
    16,377
    Likes Received:
    3,417
    I cannot wait until "best loss" is replaced by rewarding teams with the best intent to win or really wanted to be there but didn't score enough points to win criteria.
     
  23. Pollack47

    Pollack47 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2002
    Messages:
    18,302
    Likes Received:
    9,793
    I take it you dont watch much football if you think UGA usually schedules extremely weak OOC
     
  24. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2009
    Messages:
    26,957
    Likes Received:
    10,946
    24 Zgeo, May 13, 2018
    Last edited: May 13, 2018
  25. Pollack47

    Pollack47 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2002
    Messages:
    18,302
    Likes Received:
    9,793
    Utley1992 likes this.
  26. Flying Tider

    Flying Tider Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2014
    Messages:
    33,136
    Likes Received:
    35,694
    Location:
    BHam, AL
    LoL
     
  27. Flying Tider

    Flying Tider Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2014
    Messages:
    33,136
    Likes Received:
    35,694
    Location:
    BHam, AL
    LoL
     
  28. Flying Tider

    Flying Tider Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2014
    Messages:
    33,136
    Likes Received:
    35,694
    Location:
    BHam, AL
  29. maxpower024

    maxpower024 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    61,577
    Likes Received:
    31,199
    The committee should just be abolished. CFB fans deserve a real championship determined on the field.
     
    DTP2 and Nod4Eight like this.
  30. Flying Tider

    Flying Tider Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2014
    Messages:
    33,136
    Likes Received:
    35,694
    Location:
    BHam, AL
  31. Al E Gater

    Al E Gater Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2008
    Messages:
    14,341
    Likes Received:
    3,889
    DIING! DING! DING!
    Wrong again troll.
    We didn't play Mercer in 2016 but we did play USC.
     
    jackrabbit slim likes this.
  32. collegefbfan2017

    collegefbfan2017 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    7,468
    Likes Received:
    1,648
    Location:
    Alamosa, Colorado
    If we are going to make it about intent, that will clearly favor a P-5 in any condition. I've stated this before. I determined the degree, a la CFP that a 'major' is able to challenge relative to SOS is 70/30. That means the side between P-5/G-5 is substantial. 40%.
    It puts those teams (G-5/FCS) on the fringe.
    They might never get a chance if we apply rules favoring power teams for the simple reason it's the power teams who carry the most weight into the championship.
    So we have to be more objective. 70/30 suggests a team might qualify every year.
    All that really needs to be done is a set from which a team might be given a chance.
    It shouldn't necessarily matter if the committee agrees or disagrees. That's circumstantial, but in the case a team goes 13-0 like W.Michigan did, I think every effort should be given them. UCF wasn't 13-0. UCF probably deserved not to be included. Fairly.
    At least not until AFTER bearing Auburn.
    I suggested a rule prohibiting rematches (similar to the one that prohibited TCU/Baylor) be applied, giving UCF a second chance. Same as Alabama. Both being given an equal share of the championship.
    In other words let the games play out first.
    If W.Michigan beats Wisconsin it's anyone's guess what they might do in a NC pairing.
    Evidenced in part by Wisconsin's nearly NC run. Bit for the loss to Ohio St they likely are in the national championship game. They came close to beating Ohio St. Losing probably removes them from the process, but it's still one loss, same as Alabama. A person might argue that Wisconsin deserved a chance to claim a national title.
    But a rule prohibiting it might help matters.
    Rules need to be applied in some fashion.
     
  33. Diego Roll Tide

    Diego Roll Tide Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2011
    Messages:
    83,898
    Likes Received:
    63,969
    Location:
    Florence, AL
    How do you measure “intent”?

    Is there an “Intent Index”?
     
  34. collegefbfan2017

    collegefbfan2017 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    7,468
    Likes Received:
    1,648
    Location:
    Alamosa, Colorado
    I'm not sure what you are referencing but as best as I can tell that's always been the metjod from which a championship has been selected. To a degree I think most people understand. If you review the process you will see how teams play in a schedule. Yes, that is priority #1. I think I've outlined that. BYU beat Missouri in 1983.
    Missouri was a good team. 7-4. BYU had to play exceptionally well to defeat them.
    Effectively BYU won a Rose Bowl championship. Preliminary to 1984.
    In 1984 the opened against a top-profile team, Pittsburgh, won, but probably wasn't reflective of their ability. Nevertheless I say the game against Baylor was a championship. The only team BYU list to in 1983 BYU mostly dominated.
    I've determined the remaining schedule was actually respectable approximately 2/3 of what a power team likely would play. Means it was about 1/3 deficient. But having win the Rose, and having nearly beaten everyone in the year preceding likely gives BYU leverage, sufficient to claim a national title, but I said give BYU equal credit to Iowa.
    That makes it a co-championship. I think that's fair relative to the paradigm.
    I can't really do anything else. But it does address the difficulty some people have.
    A championship is won in the field and BYU tied Iowa in their championship game. 1991.
     
  35. MajorWarren

    MajorWarren Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2007
    Messages:
    25,491
    Likes Received:
    5,142
    I’ll give you credit for trying even though we all know it isn’t happening.
     
    DTP2 likes this.
  36. Flying Tider

    Flying Tider Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2014
    Messages:
    33,136
    Likes Received:
    35,694
    Location:
    BHam, AL
    Nope.


    Garbage
     
  37. jackrabbit slim

    jackrabbit slim Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2008
    Messages:
    36,063
    Likes Received:
    39,806
    Oklahoma doesn't play a single team, hell two in the BIG12, that comes close to Clemson, whom we play every year, so he can roundly fk off.
     
  38. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2009
    Messages:
    26,957
    Likes Received:
    10,946
    Hill dog had no intent to violate the law..........



    It just came naturally to her......
     
  39. collegefbfan2017

    collegefbfan2017 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    7,468
    Likes Received:
    1,648
    Location:
    Alamosa, Colorado
    I think the implication is that a prestigious program will do everything they can to schedule heavyweights. Obviously that should be defined by a team's position. Whether or not that's fair maybe is open to debate, but I want to be fair, too. I think G-5 should be isolated relative to SOS. What that likely means is a championship very likely might remove G-5 altogether. But assuming a team say, W.Michigan were to finish strong, I think there might be a way to include a team, if qualified to the championship. Obviously, that requires a suspension of disbelief to the degree necessary. If Houston had gone 13-0, they should be admitted somewhere. I think that's fair to the process, itself. And I'm all about being fair, just think if W.Michigan had defeated Wisconsin. How that might have changed the paradigm. That"s what I mean.
     
  40. Nod4Eight

    Nod4Eight Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    23,549
    Likes Received:
    28,329
    Location:
    The Reverse R P
    Relative intent coefficient.
     
    UCFhonors, Diego Roll Tide and DTP2 like this.

Share This Page