I haven't watched IU much, but this seems a bit different than Archie's teams. It seemed like Archie's teams could get up for a random game and shoot lights out or something and win, but then they would totally lay an egg on the road, doing all of this with pretty good talent. This IU team seems a lot tougher, specifically on defense.I agree with you. Last nights game doesn’t really change my opinion of IU’s upside. They won games against ranked opponents under Archie too (obviously never Purdue but still), but it’s a wildly inconsistent group of players with not a ton of offensive aptitude. The one solace I take is that it’s at home, and they’re less susceptible to droughts while at home.
Regardless, I agree with you it’s not a bad loss if they do lose. UM literally can’t fall in the net far enough to make it a tier 3 loss.
Like I said, I haven't looked at analytics or anything, but that is my casual perception.