Nova's offense nearing historic levels

[Toast.]

Posted this on Purdue's home board, but just checked KenPom after Purdue's [ugly] win last night, and noticed that Nova's offense is #1. Not that groundbreaking... but then I noticed that their adjusted offense is currently at 128.4, which is insanely good.

For reference, that is the second most efficient offense in the KenPom era (dating back to 2002), behind that ridiculously good Bo Ryan team with Frank that sits comfortably at #1 at 129.0. The third most efficient offense in that time was 126.0 (OkSt last year).

I know Nova lost Booth, but I still want no part of Jalen Brunson and Mikel Bridges. Operating with an adjusted offense of 128.4 is stupid good.

 

[jhmossy]

When Nova's adjO is 2.5 points better than Duke's (125.9), you know we're talking about an elite and historic offense.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

When Nova's adjO is 2.5 points better than Duke's (125.9), you know we're talking about an elite and historic offense.

Oh please. Kenpom struggles to account for a weak schedule. Nova plays no one. Put Nova in any of the P5 conferences and that offense wouldn't be so high. They are good but not that good. Playing a weak schedule will bite them in the butt in the tourney regardless of some contrived stat.

 

[Toast.]

Oh please. Kenpom struggles to account for a weak schedule. Nova plays no one. Put Nova in any of the P5 conferences and that offense wouldn't be so high. They are good but not that good. Playing a weak schedule will bite them in the butt in the tourney regardless of some contrived stat.

Since you have decided that KenPom struggles to account for weak schedules, why has only one team ever eclipsed their current adjusted offense? Seems like such a consistent flaw in his method...would result in other teams having inflated offensive numbers.

Either that or you're refusing to admit how efficient this offense is. 85 on Tennessee, 88 on Zags, 89 on X, etc. etc. etc.

 

[TheNation16]

Oh please. Kenpom struggles to account for a weak schedule. Nova plays no one. Put Nova in any of the P5 conferences and that offense wouldn't be so high. They are good but not that good. Playing a weak schedule will bite them in the butt in the tourney regardless of some contrived stat.

Coming from a Kentucky fan who plays in a perennial weaker SEC

 

[Mgkcbb]

Oh please. Kenpom struggles to account for a weak schedule. Nova plays no one. Put Nova in any of the P5 conferences and that offense wouldn't be so high. They are good but not that good. Playing a weak schedule will bite them in the butt in the tourney regardless of some contrived stat.

 

[ThroughBlue]

Coming from a Kentucky fan who plays in a perennial weaker SEC

We know a weak conference when we see one and that is a weak conference

 

[TheNation16]

We know a weak conference when we see one and that is a weak conference

I agree, SEC isn't a Power 3 conference

 

[anon_0astpxev9h4gk]

We know a weak conference when we see one and that is a weak conference

What teams besides UK, Florida, and maybe Tennessee are tough outs? A&M is overrated, Alabama is mediocre, Arky is Arky. Vanderbilt lol, South Carolina is okay. People keep preaching about how good the Sec is this year, and I️ just don’t really see what they’re talking about. Not saying the ACC is insane this year, but I’d contend to say the Big 12 and Big East are a bit better.

 

[ThroughBlue]

What teams besides UK, Florida, and maybe Tennessee are tough outs? A&M is overrated, Alabama is mediocre, Arky is Arky. Vanderbilt lol, South Carolina is okay. People keep preaching about how good the Sec is this year, and I️ just don’t really see what they’re talking about. Not saying the ACC is insane this year, but I’d contend to say the Big 12 and Big East are a bit better.

The sec and Big east are both weak but the sec usually performs in the tournament.

 

[anon_0astpxev9h4gk]

The sec and Big east are both weak but the sec usually performs in the tournament.

Yeah, I suppose.

 

[Wildcat-in-STL]

If weaker conferences made that much of a difference then why isnt Gonzaga like 1st through 10th on that all time Off eff list?

 

[TheNation16]

The sec and Big east are both weak but the sec usually performs in the tournament.

lol

 

[HoosierstuckinIowa]

Since you have decided that KenPom struggles to account for weak schedules, why has only one team ever eclipsed their current adjusted offense? Seems like such a consistent flaw in his method...would result in other teams having inflated offensive numbers.

Either that or you're refusing to admit how efficient this offense is. 85 on Tennessee, 88 on Zags, 89 on X, etc. etc. etc.

I think we've seen better takes out of Gill than this clown.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

Since you have decided that KenPom struggles to account for weak schedules, why has only one team ever eclipsed their current adjusted offense? Seems like such a consistent flaw in his method...would result in other teams having inflated offensive numbers.

Either that or you're refusing to admit how efficient this offense is. 85 on Tennessee, 88 on Zags, 89 on X, etc. etc. etc.

I didn't say it wasn't efficient. I said they have an easy row to hoe.

 

[TheNation16]

I didn't say it wasn't efficient. I said they have an easy row to hoe.

We get it, you're dumb

 

[gldendog]

I love when people talk about the sched. It’s cute. Nova has pasted teams like Gonzaga and Xavier and Tennessee. These are good basketball teams. Please stop with this nonsense. Watch Nova play. Their offense is basically unstoppable. The one game they lost Butler shot 15-21 from 3.

 

[TheNation16]

Villanova has now overtaken the 2015 Wisconsin team and currently has the greatest offense of all time with a rating of 129.6

Congrats to Villanova for being the GOAT

 

[Leftypitch21]

Nova is beyond impressive on offense but it’s not like the Badgers won it all that year.(might be one of the best years of college basketball I can remember.) UK, Duke, AZ, Wis, ND we’re crazy good that year.

We’ll see how the year plays out but it does look really tough to stop Brunson.

 

[tw3301]

Villanova is very good.

 

[Montana81]

I dont think pomeroy hascompletely figured out how to account for schedule strength yet because I don't believe St Mary's or Gonzaga are top 11 teams. Nor do I believe Cincinnati is top 5.

I think all 3 of those teams would be 15-20 spots lower in his ratings if they played in any of the Big12, SEC or ACC this year.

That said, I'm still buying nova's offense.

 

[NovaNation1188]

Nova is 5-1 against top 50 opponents (adjusted for home court)
Nova is 8-0 against top 51-100 opponents (adjusted for home court)

Tennessee is 2-5 Against top 50 opponents (adjusted for home court -- including a loss to Villanova)
Tennessee is 7-0 against Top 51-100 opponents (adjusted for home court)

If you look at anyone in the SEC, no one has a record close to Villanova. Auburn, perhaps the class of the conference, was was beaten by temple (lol!). Villanova crushed temple in their house.

Kentucky has played fewer games against the top 100 and has a terrible record against them (8-5 as opposed to 13-1 for Nova).

 

[ThroughBlue]

**** the 2015 Wisconsin team. Go nova

 

[Boilermaker03]

I love when people talk about the sched. It’s cute. Nova has pasted teams like Gonzaga and Xavier and Tennessee. These are good basketball teams. Please stop with this nonsense. Watch Nova play. Their offense is basically unstoppable. The one game they lost Butler shot 15-21 from 3.

I wouldn't necessarily say they "pasted" Tennessee. It was a one possession game with under a minute to play.

 

[tw3301]

Nova is good, their fans on this board are pretty awful.

 

[delawaredukies]

Listing Villanova fans we admit you guys are good but chill out on the great talk for now! I believe your schedule is backloaded with your toughest rd games coming up and give me a break about the mighty Big East . If you guys think you would be undefeated in the Acc or Big 12 I have some swamp land to sell you.

 

[CDZERA]

I dont think pomeroy hascompletely figured out how to account for schedule strength yet because I don't believe St Mary's or Gonzaga are top 11 teams. Nor do I believe Cincinnati is top 5.

I think all 3 of those teams would be 15-20 spots lower in his ratings if they played in any of the Big12, SEC or ACC this year.

That said, I'm still buying nova's offense.

I wonder if/how he adjusts for the way a team progresses over the course of the season.

I think we see the Big East get overrated annually in terms of conference quality from an analytics standpoint. My guess is that might be because the conference tends to have more veteran teams and less young, talented players who are going to take time to develop. That's conducive to decent early starts in OOC play which make the conference look better than it is by the end of the season because OOC pretty much ends up being your barometer for comparing conferences but most Big East teams pretty much are what they are early in the year whereas in other conferences you get more teams that peak late.

May be a similar but less visible/pronounced effect in leagues like the WCC where you're still largely seeing veteran groups. Or I'm just interpreting what I think I've seen in the Big East the last few years incorrectly.

 

[TheNation16]

Can Nova get to 130? History continues....

 

[Toast.]

Oh please. Kenpom struggles to account for a weak schedule. Nova plays no one. Put Nova in any of the P5 conferences and that offense wouldn't be so high. They are good but not that good. Playing a weak schedule will bite them in the butt in the tourney regardless of some contrived stat.

 

[anon_0astpxev9h4gk]

What teams besides UK, Florida, and maybe Tennessee are tough outs? A&M is overrated, Alabama is mediocre, Arky is Arky. Vanderbilt lol, South Carolina is okay. People keep preaching about how good the Sec is this year, and I️ just don’t really see what they’re talking about. Not saying the ACC is insane this year, but I’d contend to say the Big 12 and Big East are a bit better.